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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:23 AM ET · 16 to play
Miami Dolphins 20, Browns 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 0:45, 4th and 1, on D'Onta Foreman — 11.3 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:45 · 4th and 1
D'Onta Foreman
Dolphins
(:45) 27-D.Foreman right guard to MIA 38 for no gain (56-Q.Bell).
Dolphins closed -3 and covered, winning by 17.
Miami Dolphins 20–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:45, Dolphins +11.3% win probability on one snap.
11.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetBrownsQ1 12:39(12:39) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 36, and recovers at MIA 34. 18-T.Huntley to MIA 32 for -2 yards (95-M.Garrett).
8.9pts
Tyrel DodsonDolphinsQ2 4:41(4:41) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass deep middle intended for 3-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 11-T.Dodson at 50. 11-T.Dodson to 50 for no gain (3-J.Jeudy). PENALTY on MIA-11-T.Dodson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at 50.
9.5pts
What separated them
Red zone
Dolphins won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Browns at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Browns owned this one and still lost it — -0.07 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.72 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Dolphins won this one — no giveaways, against Browns at 3 giveaways.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.29 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.53 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Dolphins167 of 176 plays carry both curves
(:45) 27-D.Foreman right guard to MIA 38 for no gain (56-Q.Bell).
Swing −11.3 for BrownsExpected points −1.98 for BrownsThe model had Browns 13 points higher than the market did.play 74
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:45MIA +11% win prob(:45) 27-D.Foreman right guard to MIA 38 for no gain (56-Q.Bell).
2nd · 4:41MIA +9% win prob(4:41) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass deep middle intended for 3-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 11-T.Dodson at 50. 11-T.Dodson to 50 for no gain (3-J.Jeudy). PENALTY on MIA-11-T.Dodson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at 50.
1st · 12:39MIA +9% win prob(12:39) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 36, and recovers at MIA 34. 18-T.Huntley to MIA 32 for -2 yards (95-M.Garrett).
4th · 14:14MIA +9% win prob(14:14) (Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete short left to 3-J.Jeudy (5-J.Ramsey).
1st · 1:09CLE +7% win prob(1:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass short left to 3-J.Jeudy to MIA 26 for 15 yards (8-J.Holland).
2nd · 3:57MIA +7% win prob(3:57) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley pass short left to 28-D.Achane to MIA 40 for no gain (97-J.Briggs). PENALTY on MIA-72-T.Armstead, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 40 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jason Sanders's 39-yard field goal with 0:01 left in the 2nd put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:50Jason Sanders·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.McQuaide+33–0
2nd13:29Dustin Hopkins·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Sunahara+33–3
2nd0:01Jason Sanders·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.McQuaideLead never changed again+36–3
Dolphins ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.72 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Dolphins: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.36Browns: −0.36 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.29Dolphins: +0.29 expected points added per play
−0.53Browns: −0.53 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.72Dolphins: −0.72 expected points added per play
−0.07Browns: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 55 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Browns’s 76 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 2, Browns 3.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.36.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 24 pts
right on their number · −0.4 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Browns23.5%
inside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their 18.6%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteCLE's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 40.9 points above their season mean of 59.1% and 1.7 times their own 24.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
70Kendall LammT · Every snap100%60 snaps
65Robert JonesG · Every snap100%60 snaps
55Aaron BrewerG · Every snap100%60 snaps
18Tyler HuntleyQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Full-time88%53 snaps
83Malik WashingtonWR · Full-time87%52 snaps
89Julian HillTE · Heavy rotation62%37 snaps
77Isaiah WynnG · Heavy rotation57%34 snaps
52Patrick PaulT · Heavy rotation55%33 snaps
28De'Von AchaneRB · Heavy rotation53%32 snaps
9Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational48%29 snaps
72Terron ArmsteadT · Rotational45%27 snaps
74Liam EichenbergG · Rotational43%26 snaps
31Raheem MostertRB · Rotational40%24 snaps
30Alec IngoldFB · Rotational38%23 snaps
85River CracraftWR · Rotational33%20 snaps
81Durham SmytheTE · Rotational28%17 snaps
23Jeff WilsonRB · Situational13%8 snaps
25Jaylen WrightRB · Situational3%2 snaps
82Dee EskridgeWR · Situational3%2 snaps
80Jack StollTE · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Andrew MeyerCNik NeedhamCBAnthony WalkerMLBMohamed KamaraOLBTua TagovailoaQBErik EzukanmaWRJaylen WaddleWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Skylar ThompsonQB
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
65Germain IfediG · Every snap100%79 snaps
75Joel BitonioG · Every snap100%79 snaps
77Wyatt TellerG · Every snap100%79 snaps
17Dorian Thompson-RobinsonQB · Every snap100%79 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Thompson-Robinson pass−9% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(14:14) (Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete short left to 3-J.Jeudy (5-J.Ramsey).
Q4 14:14 · Browns · 4th & goal at MIA 3 · gained nothing · -2.29 EP · −9.4% win probability
165 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 72 yards from the MIA 28 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
-0.19
Success rate
37%
Yards
556
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54-0.3265%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR20-0.1535%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR16-0.0763%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.3364%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.1229%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.7571%
Browns1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Dolphins3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Browns0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Dolphins 46
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 19 to the Browns 23
Dolphins3Browns0
Field goal8 plays, from the Dolphins 38 to the Browns 36
The period ended13 plays, from the Browns 27 to the Dolphins 26
2nd quarter48 plays
Dolphins3Browns3
Field goal4 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Browns 42
Punt4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Dolphins 47
Intercepted7 plays, from the Browns 5 to the Browns 33
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Dolphins 40
The period ended7 plays, from the Browns 42 to the Dolphins 38
Dolphins6Browns3
Field goal8 plays, from the Dolphins 38 to the Browns 21
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 34
Dolphins12Browns3
Dolphins13Browns3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Dolphins 28 to the Browns 13
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 32
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 29 to the Dolphins 37
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Dolphins 45
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Browns 45 to the Browns 36
The period ended9 plays, from the Browns 38 to the Dolphins 9
4th quarter51 plays
Turnover on downs3 plays, from the Dolphins 4 to the Dolphins 3
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 3 to the Dolphins 8
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 45 to the Dolphins 43
Punt9 plays, from the Dolphins 14 to the Dolphins 46
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Browns 2 to the Browns 18
Dolphins19Browns3
Dolphins20Browns3
Touchdown8 plays, from the Browns 21 to the Browns 6
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Dolphins 17
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
