2024 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2024 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Miami DolphinsWinner

Cleveland Browns

MIA -3 ✓U 32.5 ✓15 mph windDolphins closed -3 and covered, winning by 17.

Miami Dolphins 20–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:45, MIA +11% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:45MIA 3 — CLE 3CLE ball · 4th & 1MIA 50%

(:45) 27-D.Foreman right guard to MIA 38 for no gain (56-Q.Bell).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:45MIA +11% win prob(:45) 27-D.Foreman right guard to MIA 38 for no gain (56-Q.Bell).
Q2 · 4:41MIA +9% win prob(4:41) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass deep middle intended for 3-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 11-T.Dodson at 50. 11-T.Dodson to 50 for no gain (3-J.Jeudy). PENALTY on MIA-11-T.Dodson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at 50.
Q1 · 12:39MIA +9% win prob(12:39) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 36, and recovers at MIA 34. 18-T.Huntley to MIA 32 for -2 yards (95-M.Garrett).
Q4 · 14:14MIA +9% win prob(14:14) (Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete short left to 3-J.Jeudy (5-J.Ramsey).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 5:50MIA Field goal
(5:50) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: MIA 3 — CLE 0
Q2 · 13:29CLE Field goal
(13:29) 7-D.Hopkins 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: MIA 3 — CLE 3
Q2 · 0:01MIA Field goal
(:01) 7-J.Sanders 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: MIA 6 — CLE 3
Q3 · 11:12MIA Touchdown
(11:12) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley scrambles right end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 13 — CLE 3
Q4 · 3:43MIA Touchdown
(3:43) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley pass short left to 9-J.Smith for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 20 — CLE 3

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Browns
Offensive plays	55	76
Total yards	281 (edge)	276
Yards per play	5.1 (edge)	3.6
Expected points added / play	-0.10 (edge)	-0.36
Success rate	36% (edge)	34%
Dropback rate	62%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.29 (edge)	-0.53
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.72	-0.07 (edge)
Third downs	2/11	7/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	16 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.36.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tyler HuntleyQB

22/26, 225 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

5.3 expected points added · +22.4% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Dorian Thompson-RobinsonQB

24/47, 170 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-25.2 expected points added · -14.9% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Tyler HuntleyQB

7 att, 52 yds, 1 TD

3.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

D'Onta ForemanRB

13 att, 49 yds, 0 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Tyreek HillWR

9/9 for 105 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · 7.3 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Jerry JeudyWR

12/18 for 94 yds, 0 TD

42% of team targets · -0.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 30	9	45	4:11	Punt
2	CLE	CLE 19	4	4	1:24	Punt
3	MIA	MIA 38	7	36	3:39	Field goal +3
4	CLE	CLE 27	15	61	7:20	Field goal +3
5	MIA	MIA 30	6	26	2:06	Punt
6	CLE	CLE 20	4	0	0:24	Fumble
7	MIA	MIA 30	5	17	2:56	Punt
8	CLE	CLE 5	6	37	3:27	Interception
9	MIA	MIA 35	4	6	2:45	Punt
10	CLE	CLE 42	6	20	1:08	Turnover on downs
11	MIA	MIA 38	5	28	0:40	Field goal +3
12	CLE	CLE 30	5	4	0:51	Punt
13	MIA	MIA 28	7	57	3:05	Touchdown +7
14	CLE	CLE 30	5	2	1:03	Punt
15	MIA	MIA 29	4	1	1:49	Punt
16	CLE	CLE 30	6	9	2:49	Fumble
17	MIA	CLE 45	4	7	2:05	Turnover on downs
18	CLE	CLE 38	11	50	4:07	Turnover on downs
19	MIA	MIA 3	4	5	1:19	Punt
20	CLE	MIA 45	4	7	1:47	Punt
21	MIA	MIA 14	9	32	5:30	Punt
22	CLE	CLE 2	7	29	1:39	Turnover on downs
23	MIA	CLE 21	5	21	0:18	Touchdown +7
24	CLE	CLE 30	13	53	3:20	Turnover on downs
25	MIA	MIA 17	1	0	0:18	End of game

5 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 61 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tyler Huntley	22/26	225	1	0	4	5.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Tyler Huntley	7	52	7.4	1	3.7
Devon Achane	10	25	2.5	0	-6.5
Jeffery Wilson	3	5	1.7	0	-1.9
Raheem Mostert	6	3	0.5	0	-3.8
Malik Washington	1	-11	-11.0	0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyreek Hill	9	9	105	0	38%	7.3
Malik Washington	4	5	41	0	21%	0.7
Jonnu Smith	3	4	26	1	17%	2.9
Raheem Mostert	2	2	16	0	8%	-0.7
River Cracraft	1	1	16	0	4%	2.1
Devon Achane	2	2	13	0	8%	-0.7
D'Wayne Eskridge	1	1	8	0	4%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tyrel Dodson	5	7	0.0	1	1
Jordyn Brooks	8	1	0.0	0	0
Storm Duck	4	2	0.0	0	1
Jordan Poyer	4	2	0.0	0	1
Emmanuel Ogbah	4	1	1.0	0	0
Benito Jones	1	3	0.0	0	0
Kader Kohou	3	1	0.0	0	1
Calais Campbell	1	2	0.0	0	0
Jevon Holland	1	1	0.0	0	0
Elijah Campbell	1	1	0.0	0	0

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dorian Thompson-Robinson	24/47	170	0	1	1	-25.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
D'Onta Foreman	13	49	3.8	-1.6
Pierre Strong	5	33	6.6	1.1
Jerome Ford	6	22	3.7	-2.2
Dorian Thompson-Robinson	4	10	2.5	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jerry Jeudy	12	18	94	42%	-0.8
Jordan Akins	6	8	49	19%	0.8
Pierre Strong	3	5	15	12%	-2.9
Blake Whiteheart	1	1	8	2%	0.1
Mike Woods	1	3	3	7%	-4.3
Elijah Moore	1	5	1	12%	-5.3
D'Onta Foreman	0	2	0	5%	-0.8
Jamari Thrash	0	1	0	2%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Grant Delpit	7	2	0.0
Mohamoud Diabate	3	3	0.0
Jordan Hicks	1	5	0.0
Denzel Ward	4	1	0.0
Martin Emerson	2	2	0.0
Cameron Mitchell	2	2	0.0
Myles Garrett	4	0	2.0
Isaiah McGuire	2	1	1.0
Juan Thornhill	1	1	0.0
D'Anthony Bell	1	1	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIA -3
Closing total: 32.5
MIA moneyline: -170
CLE moneyline: +142

Dolphins closed -3 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 32.5; the game landed 23 — under by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 54°F, wind 15 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: MIA 7 days · CLE 7 days
Coaches: Mike McDaniel vs Kevin Stefanski

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.