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Buffalo Bills 40, Jets 14 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 10:53, 3rd and 13, on Mack Hollins — 9.7 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:53 · 3rd and 13
Mack Hollins
Bills
(10:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-M.Hollins to NYJ 30 for 23 yards (36-C.Clark; 30-M.Carter).
18 mph wind
Bills closed -10 and covered, winning by 26.
Buffalo Bills 40–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:53, Bills +9.7% win probability on one snap. Played in 18 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
9.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ty JohnsonJetsQ1 13:17(13:17) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 26-Ty.Johnson left tackle to NYJ 40 for 8 yards (44-J.Sherwood). PENALTY on BUF-66-C.McGovern, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 40.
9.2pts
Jordan PhillipsBillsQ2 8:52(8:52) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 97-J.Phillips (50-G.Rousseau) at BUF 15. 97-J.Phillips to BUF 17 for 2 yards (75-A.Vera-Tucker).
8.6pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.62 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.29 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bills won this one — no giveaways, against Jets at 3 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Bills at 4 chunk plays.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.17 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.21 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Jets161 of 169 plays carry both curves
(10:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-M.Hollins to NYJ 30 for 23 yards (36-C.Clark; 30-M.Carter).
Swing +9.7 for BillsExpected points +3.13 for BillsThe model had Jets 22 points higher than the market did.play 12
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 10:53BUF +10% win prob(10:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-M.Hollins to NYJ 30 for 23 yards (36-C.Clark; 30-M.Carter).
1st · 13:17NYJ +9% win prob(13:17) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 26-Ty.Johnson left tackle to NYJ 40 for 8 yards (44-J.Sherwood). PENALTY on BUF-66-C.McGovern, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 40.
2nd · 8:52NYJ +9% win prob(8:52) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 97-J.Phillips (50-G.Rousseau) at BUF 15. 97-J.Phillips to BUF 17 for 2 yards (75-A.Vera-Tucker).
1st · 11:22NYJ +5% win prob(11:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 0-K.Coleman to NYJ 6 for 37 yards (23-I.Oliver). PENALTY on BUF-79-S.Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 43 - No Play.
1st · 12:52BUF +4% win prob(12:52) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 86-D.Kincaid. PENALTY on NYJ-4-D.Reed, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 45 - No Play.
1st · 3:34NYJ +4% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Josh Allen's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 8:14 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:14Josh Allen·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
2nd2:34A.J. Epenesa·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+20–9
2nd0:02Tyler Bass·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.Ferguson+30–12
4th2:00Tyler Conklin·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Tyrod Taylorfrom Tyrod Taylor · two-point no good+614–40
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryBills
Jets3–6Bills
283Total yards349
4.8Yards per play5.8
47%Success rate47%
44%Third-down rate62%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
9Explosive plays4
20First downs17
4Sacks taken0
3Turnovers0
The read
Bills ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.62 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.21Jets: −0.21 expected points added per play
+0.17Bills: +0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.29Jets: −0.29 expected points added per play
+0.62Bills: +0.62 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Jets: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.26Bills: −0.26 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 59 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Bills’s 60 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Jets 3, Bills 6.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.21.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BUF's play-action rate, 3.4%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 4.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 8.1% in week 4.
2.0 times their own weekly swing below their number.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · −3.3 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Bills15.4%
right on their number · +0.5 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
NoteBUF's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 3.4%, 14.3 points below their season mean of 17.8% and 2.0 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen pass+12% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-M.Hollins to NYJ 30 for 23 yards (36-C.Clark; 30-M.Carter).
Q1 10:53 · Bills · 3rd & 13 at BUF 47 · gained 23 · +3.13 EP · +11.5% win probability
159 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 75 yards from the NYJ 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
47%
Yards
631
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.4772%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.3654%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.4447%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.0838%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.5829%
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Jets2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Jets0Bills6
Jets0Bills7
Touchdown18 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Jets 1
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Jets 28 to the Bills 24
The period ended4 plays, from the Bills 24 to the Bills 32
2nd quarter43 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 41 to the Bills 45
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.2 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Jets 26 to the Bills 12
Punt11 plays, from the Bills 17 to the Jets 44
Jets0Bills9
Jets0Bills12
Field goal15 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Jets 21
3rd quarter48 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Bills 37
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 1 to the Bills 7
Intercepted5 plays, from the Bills 45 to the Bills 32
Jets0Bills18
Jets0Bills19
Touchdown6 plays, from the Jets 38 to the Jets 26
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 15 to the Jets 19
Jets0Bills25
Jets0Bills26
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jets 37 to the Jets 1
Fumble lost2 plays
Jets0Bills32
Jets0Bills33
Touchdown4 plays, from the Jets 15 to the Jets 14
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter42 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Jets 18 to the Jets 26
Jets0Bills39
Jets0Bills40
Touchdown4 plays
Jets6Bills40
Jets8Bills40
Touchdown16 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Bills 9
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Bills 49 to the Jets 44
Jets14Bills40
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jets 42 to the Bills 20
The period ended5 plays, from the Bills 19 to the Bills 23
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bills -10
Closing total
44.5
Jets moneyline
+390
Bills moneyline
-520
Bills closed -10 and covered, winning by 26.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 54 — over by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 53°F at kickoff; windy at 18 mph out of the south; 0.04 in of precipitation; overcast.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Jets 7 days · Bills 7 days
Coaches
Robert Saleh vs Sean McDermott
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
NoteWind at 18 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
(3:34) 20-B.Hall left end pushed ob at BUF 6 for 18 yards (7-Ta.Johnson). PENALTY on NYJ-76-Jo.Simpson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 24 - No Play.
1st · 12:44BUF +4% win prob(12:44) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook left tackle to NYJ 43 for 7 yards (56-Qi.Williams).
2nd · 10:14BUF +3% win prob(10:14) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 5-G.Wilson pushed ob at BUF 14 for 28 yards (24-C.Bishop).
