2024 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2024 · New Era Field

New York Jets

Buffalo BillsWinner

BUF -10 ✓O 44.5 ✓15 mph windBills closed -10 and covered, winning by 26.

Buffalo Bills 40–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:53, BUF +10% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 10:53NYJ 0 — BUF 0BUF ball · 3rd & 13BUF 74%

(10:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-M.Hollins to NYJ 30 for 23 yards (36-C.Clark; 30-M.Carter).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 10:53BUF +10% win prob(10:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-M.Hollins to NYJ 30 for 23 yards (36-C.Clark; 30-M.Carter).
Q1 · 13:17NYJ +9% win prob(13:17) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 26-Ty.Johnson left tackle to NYJ 40 for 8 yards (44-J.Sherwood). PENALTY on BUF-66-C.McGovern, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 40.
Q2 · 8:52NYJ +9% win prob(8:52) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 97-J.Phillips (50-G.Rousseau) at BUF 15. 97-J.Phillips to BUF 17 for 2 yards (75-A.Vera-Tucker).
Q1 · 11:22NYJ +5% win prob(11:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 0-K.Coleman to NYJ 6 for 37 yards (23-I.Oliver). PENALTY on BUF-79-S.Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 43 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:14BUF Touchdown
(8:14) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 0 — BUF 7
Q2 · 2:34BUF Safety
(2:34) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked in End Zone for -2 yards, SAFETY (57-A.Epenesa).
Score after this play: NYJ 0 — BUF 9
Q2 · 0:02BUF Field goal
(:02) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: NYJ 0 — BUF 12
Q3 · 5:19BUF Touchdown
(5:19) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 18-A.Cooper for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 0 — BUF 19
Q3 · 1:17BUF Touchdown
(1:17) (No Huddle) 4-J.Cook left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 0 — BUF 26
Q3 · 0:21BUF Touchdown
(:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NYJ-94-S.Thomas, Unnecessary Roughness, 8 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 0 — BUF 33
Q4 · 12:48BUF Touchdown
(12:48) (Shotgun) 11-M.Trubisky pass short left to 80-T.Shavers for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 0 — BUF 40
Q4 · 7:04NYJ Touchdown
(7:04) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short right to 5-G.Wilson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: NYJ 8 — BUF 40
Q4 · 2:00NYJ Touchdown
(2:00) 2-T.Taylor pass deep right to 83-T.Conklin for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: NYJ 14 — BUF 40

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Bills
Offensive plays	59	60
Total yards	283	349 (edge)
Yards per play	4.8	5.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.21	0.17 (edge)
Success rate	47% (edge)	47%
Dropback rate	66%	48%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.29	0.62 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05 (edge)	-0.26
Third downs	4/9	8/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	4	0 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.21.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

16/27, 182 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.8 expected points added · -3.3% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Aaron RodgersQB

12/18, 112 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-15.6 expected points added · -7.6% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

15 att, 53 yds, 1 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Breece HallRB

10 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Garrett WilsonWR

7/8 for 66 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 1.8 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Tyler ConklinTE

8/8 for 57 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 30	14	80	6:49	Touchdown +7
2	NYJ	NYJ 28	11	53	5:59	Turnover on downs
3	BUF	BUF 24	7	30	4:07	Punt
4	NYJ	NYJ 26	7	62	4:18	Interception
5	BUF	BUF 17	11	39	5:31	Punt
6	NYJ	NYJ 5	2	-3	0:45	Safety
7	BUF	BUF 32	10	42	2:31	Field goal +3
8	NYJ	NYJ 30	8	38	3:27	Punt
9	BUF	BUF 1	4	6	1:38	Punt
10	NYJ	BUF 45	4	8	2:35	Interception
11	BUF	NYJ 38	6	38	2:07	Touchdown +7
12	NYJ	NYJ 15	5	-4	2:08	Punt
13	BUF	NYJ 37	6	21	1:50	Touchdown +7
14	NYJ	NYJ 30	2	-10	0:07	Defensive touchdown
15	BUF	NYJ 15	4	15	0:56	Touchdown +7
16	NYJ	NYJ 30	5	-4	0:57	Punt
17	BUF	BUF 35	4	65	1:38	Touchdown +7
18	NYJ	NYJ 25	15	85	5:38	Touchdown +8
19	BUF	BUF 49	5	9	2:15	Turnover on downs
20	NYJ	NYJ 42	9	58	2:49	Touchdown +6
21	BUF	BUF 19	4	4	1:55	End of game

8 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 85 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	12/18	112	0	2	4	-15.6
Tyrod Taylor	11/14	83	2	0	0	8.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Breece Hall	10	45	4.5	0.4
Isaiah Davis	3	35	11.7	2.9
Braelon Allen	6	26	4.3	-2.6
Tyrod Taylor	2	6	3.0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Garrett Wilson	7	8	66	1	26%	1.8
Tyler Conklin	8	8	57	1	26%	6.2
Davante Adams	5	8	47	0	26%	-4.6
Allen Lazard	1	3	9	0	10%	-5.6
Breece Hall	1	1	8	0	3%	-0.3
Isaiah Davis	1	1	8	0	3%	0.6
Kenny Yeboah	0	2	0	0	6%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Quincy Williams	5	5	1
Jamien Sherwood	4	5	1
Chuck Clark	3	5	0
Tony Adams	3	1	0
Ahmad Gardner	3	0	1
D.J. Reed	3	0	0
Bruce Hector	1	2	0
Isaiah Davis	2	0	0
Brandin Echols	1	1	0
Leonard Taylor	2	0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	16/27	182	2	0	0	9.8
Mitchell Trubisky	1/1	69	1	0	0	7.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Cook	15	53	3.5	1	-0.3
Josh Allen	5	17	3.4	1	2.1
Ty Johnson	4	16	4.0	0	-1.8
Ray Davis	6	9	1.5	0	-5.2
Reggie Gilliam	2	3	1.5	0	-1.6
Mitchell Trubisky	2	-1	-0.5	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyrell Shavers	1	1	69	1	4%	7.1
Amari Cooper	3	3	56	1	11%	5.3
Mack Hollins	2	2	33	0	7%	4.1
Keon Coleman	3	7	27	1	26%	-0.1
Khalil Shakir	3	6	25	0	22%	-0.5
Dalton Kincaid	2	2	24	0	7%	1.7
Ty Johnson	1	1	9	0	4%	1.1
Ray Davis	1	1	4	0	4%	0.1
Dawson Knox	1	3	4	0	11%	-1.3
Quintin Morris	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Joe Andreessen	5	3	0.0	0
Dorian Williams	1	4	0.0	0
Cole Bishop	5	0	0.0	0
Matt Milano	1	3	0.0	0
Taron Johnson	4	0	0.0	0
Taylor Rapp	3	1	0.0	0
A.J. Epenesa	3	0	1.0	0
Gregory Rousseau	1	2	0.5	1
Ed Oliver	2	1	1.0	0
Von Miller	2	0	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -10
Closing total: 44.5
NYJ moneyline: +390
BUF moneyline: -520

Bills closed -10 and covered, winning by 26.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 54 — over by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 54°F, wind 15 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: NYJ 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: Robert Saleh vs Sean McDermott

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.