2024 Week 17 · Thu, Dec 26, 2024 · Soldier Field

Seattle SeahawksWinner

Chicago Bears

SEA -3.5 no coverU 43.5 ✓Seahawks closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Seattle Seahawks 6–3 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:14, CHI +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:14SEA 6 — CHI 3CHI ball · 4th & 5SEA 83%

(2:14) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 2-D.Moore pushed ob at CHI 49 for 14 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:14CHI +16% win prob(2:14) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 2-D.Moore pushed ob at CHI 49 for 14 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).
Q4 · 0:20SEA +15% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep right intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 27-T.Woolen (8-C.Bryant) [8-C.Bryant] at SEA 22. 27-T.Woolen pushed ob at SEA 29 for 7 yards (85-C.Kmet).
Q4 · 1:15CHI +14% win prob(1:15) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 15-R.Odunze to SEA 40 for 15 yards (8-C.Bryant) [53-B.Mafe].
Q4 · 0:26SEA +10% win prob(:26) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right to 2-D.Moore.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:03SEA Field goal
(9:03) 5-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: SEA 3 — CHI 0
Q2 · 2:37CHI Field goal
(2:37) 8-C.Santos 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Score after this play: SEA 3 — CHI 3
Q2 · 0:26SEA Field goal
(:26) 5-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: SEA 6 — CHI 3

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	Bears
Offensive plays	50	58
Total yards	266 (edge)	179
Yards per play	5.3 (edge)	3.1
Expected points added / play	-0.17 (edge)	-0.21
Success rate	42% (edge)	34%
Dropback rate	56%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23 (edge)	-0.25
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.10 (edge)	-0.14
Third downs	5/13 (edge)	5/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	4
First downs gained on snaps	12 (edge)	11
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	7
Turnovers	1	1

Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.21.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

17/23, 160 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-4.2 expected points added · +8.8% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Caleb WilliamsQB

16/28, 122 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-10.2 expected points added · -5.0% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Zach CharbonnetRB

15 att, 57 yds, 0 TD

-3.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

D'Andre SwiftRB

12 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

D.J. MooreWR

6/8 for 54 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 3.1 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

Noah FantTE

4/5 for 43 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 1.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SEA	SEA 20	12	71	6:01	Field goal +3
2	CHI	CHI 30	5	5	1:20	Punt
3	SEA	SEA 17	4	3	1:39	Punt
4	CHI	CHI 29	6	16	2:15	Punt
5	SEA	SEA 5	4	8	1:33	Punt
6	CHI	CHI 31	4	4	1:31	Punt
7	SEA	SEA 16	10	43	5:22	Punt
8	CHI	CHI 9	13	76	7:47	Field goal +3
9	SEA	SEA 30	9	53	2:11	Field goal +3
10	CHI	CHI 30	3	0	0:21	End of half
11	CHI	CHI 22	5	9	2:13	Punt
12	SEA	SEA 20	7	21	4:34	Punt
13	CHI	CHI 16	6	10	3:38	Punt
14	SEA	SEA 35	5	32	2:45	Defensive touchdown
15	CHI	CHI 38	7	1	2:44	Punt
16	SEA	SEA 14	4	6	2:23	Punt
17	CHI	CHI 38	7	5	3:30	Punt
18	SEA	SEA 12	5	29	3:01	Punt
19	CHI	CHI 11	13	53	5:01	Interception
20	SEA	SEA 29	1	0	0:11	End of game

3 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 76 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Geno Smith	17/23	160	0	0	3	-4.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Zach Charbonnet	15	57	3.8	-3.0
Kenny McIntosh	7	46	6.6	0.8
Geno Smith	3	19	6.3	2.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Noah Fant	4	5	43	23%	1.9
DK Metcalf	3	3	42	14%	1.7
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	3	6	32	27%	0.9
Tyler Lockett	3	4	20	18%	-1.3
Zach Charbonnet	3	3	19	14%	-0.7
Pharaoh Brown	1	1	4	5%	-4.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Coby Bryant	3	3	0.0	1
Devon Witherspoon	6	0	1.0	0
Ernest Jones	1	4	0.0	0
Leonard Williams	5	0	2.0	0
Julian Love	3	2	0.0	0
Josh Jobe	4	0	0.0	0
Boye Mafe	4	0	0.0	0
Uchenna Nwosu	3	1	1.0	1
Byron Murphy	2	0	0.0	0
Jarran Reed	1	1	1.0	0

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Caleb Williams	16/28	122	0	1	7	-10.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
D'Andre Swift	12	53	4.4	-0.7
Caleb Williams	5	37	7.4	1.4
D.J. Moore	2	8	4.0	-0.3
Roschon Johnson	4	5	1.3	-2.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Moore	6	8	54	31%	3.1
D'Andre Swift	4	5	28	19%	0.5
Keenan Allen	5	8	25	31%	-2.1
Rome Odunze	1	4	15	15%	-1.6
Gerald Everett	0	1	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
T.J. Edwards	5	1	0.0	0
Kyler Gordon	3	3	0.0	1
Tremaine Edmunds	3	2	0.0	1
Jaylon Johnson	4	1	0.0	0
Jonathan Owens	3	1	0.0	0
Byron Cowart	2	2	1.0	0
Darrell Taylor	3	1	1.0	0
Kevin Byard	4	0	0.0	0
Tyrique Stevenson	2	1	0.0	0
Jake Martin	1	1	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -3.5
Closing total: 43.5
SEA moneyline: -192
CHI moneyline: +160

Seahawks closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 9 — under by 34.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 47°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: SEA 4 days · CHI 4 days
Coaches: Mike Macdonald vs Matt Eberflus