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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:24 AM ET · 16 to play
Seattle Seahawks 6, Bears 3 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 2:14, 4th and 5, on D.J. Moore — 16.4 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:14 · 4th and 5
D.J. Moore
Bears
(2:14) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 2-D.Moore pushed ob at CHI 49 for 14 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).
Seahawks closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Seattle Seahawks 6–3 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:14, Bears +16.4% win probability on one snap.
16.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Rome OdunzeBearsQ4 1:15(1:15) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 15-R.Odunze to SEA 40 for 15 yards (8-C.Bryant) [53-B.Mafe].
14.3pts
Tariq WoolenSeahawksQ4 0:20(:20) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep right intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 27-T.Woolen (8-C.Bryant) [8-C.Bryant] at SEA 22. 27-T.Woolen pushed ob at SEA 29 for 7 yards (85-C.Kmet).
14.8pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Seahawks won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bears at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Seahawks won this one — 5 of 13 on third down, against Bears at 5 of 15 on third down.
6 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Seahawks138 of 149 plays carry both curves
(2:14) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 2-D.Moore pushed ob at CHI 49 for 14 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).
Swing +16.4 for BearsExpected points +2.49 for BearsThe model had Bears 11 points higher than the market did.play 137
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:14CHI +16% win prob(2:14) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 2-D.Moore pushed ob at CHI 49 for 14 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).
4th · 0:20SEA +15% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep right intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 27-T.Woolen (8-C.Bryant) [8-C.Bryant] at SEA 22. 27-T.Woolen pushed ob at SEA 29 for 7 yards (85-C.Kmet).
4th · 1:15CHI +14% win prob(1:15) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 15-R.Odunze to SEA 40 for 15 yards (8-C.Bryant) [53-B.Mafe].
4th · 0:26SEA +10% win prob(:26) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right to 2-D.Moore.
3rd · 1:55SEA +10% win prob(1:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 86-P.Brown to CHI 38 for 4 yards (49-T.Edmunds, 6-K.Gordon). FUMBLES (6-K.Gordon), RECOVERED by CHI-6-K.Gordon at CHI 38. 6-K.Gordon for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 86-P.Brown to CHI 38 for 4 yards (49-T.Edmunds, 6-K.Gordon). FUMBLES (6-K.Gordon), RECOVERED by CHI-6-K.Gordon at CHI 38. 6-K.Gordon to CHI 38 for no gain (86-P.Brown).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jason Myers's 50-yard field goal with 0:26 left in the 2nd put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:03Jason Myers·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+33–0
2nd2:37Cairo Santos·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap S.Daly+33–3
2nd0:26Jason Myers·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.StollLead never changed again+36–3
3 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryBears
Seahawks6–0Bears
266Total yards179
5.3Yards per play3.1
42%Success rate34%
38%Third-down rate33%
0Red-zone touchdowns0
4Explosive plays4
12First downs11
3Sacks taken7
1Turnovers1
The read
Seahawks ahead 6–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.17Seahawks: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.21Bears: −0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.23Seahawks: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.25Bears: −0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Seahawks: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.14Bears: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 50 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Bears’s 58 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 1, Bears 1.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.21.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SEA's sack or hit rate, 28.9%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 2.6 points clear of the next team along.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
high through week 17Against their seasonTendencies
SEA's play-action rate, 39.3%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 15 — the highest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 16.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points.
low through week 17Against their seasonOver Expected
SEA's pass rate over expected, −9.6 pts, is past their previous low of −6.9 pts in week 9 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
A 3.0-swing turn from week 16.
50 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
CHI's sack or hit rate turned over: 9.1% in week 16 against 25.0% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
CHI's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 100.0% in week 16 against 25.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.8 points.
SEA's early-down pass rate turned over: 73.5% in week 16 against 45.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 20 pts
leaned — got home · +11.4 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+1.60× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Bears25.0%
leaned — got home · +7.7 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+1.34× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
NoteSEA's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 39.3%, 19.9 points above their season mean of 19.4% and 1.9 times their own 10.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Williams pass+18% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:15) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 15-R.Odunze to SEA 40 for 15 yards (8-C.Bryant) [53-B.Mafe].
Q4 1:15 · Bears · 3rd & 14 at CHI 45 · gained 15 · +1.52 EP · +17.6% win probability
136 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 149 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 136 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 144. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
3 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 71 yards from the SEA 20 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
149 of 149 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
149
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
39%
Yards
444
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47-0.2364%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.1960%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.0943%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.140%
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
149 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
149 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Seahawks3Bears0
Field goal12 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Bears 9
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 35
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 17 to the Seahawks 20
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 29 to the Bears 45
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 5 to the Seahawks 13
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 31 to the Bears 35
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter42 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Seahawks 21 to the Bears 39
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.0 seconds
Seahawks3Bears3
Field goal16 plays, from the Bears 9 to the Seahawks 17
Seahawks6Bears3
Field goal12 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Bears 32
The period ended5 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 37
3rd quarter29 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 22 to the Bears 31
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 48
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 16 to the Bears 36
How the play was built
A screen, a run-pass option, play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Bears 42
The period ended5 plays, from the Bears 38 to the Seahawks 49
4th quarter40 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Bears 37 to the Bears 39
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 14 to the Seahawks 21
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 38 to the Seahawks 49
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 12 to the Seahawks 46
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw8.9 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
The period ended18 plays, from the Bears 11 to the Seahawks 40
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
