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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:23 AM ET · 16 to play
2024 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2024 · TIAA Bank Stadium
Final
TitansTennessee13
BY 7final margin
JaguarsJacksonville20
Tennessee Titans 13 at Jacksonville Jaguars 20. Final.
Titans -1 upset
The verdict · 2024 Week 17
Jacksonville Jaguars 20, Titans 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 10:25, 3rd and 8, on Calvin Ridley — 10.0 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 10:25 · 3rd and 8
Calvin Ridley
Titans
(10:25) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass deep middle to 0-C.Ridley to JAX 26 for 19 yards (30-M.Brown).
U 38 ✓
Titans closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Jacksonville Jaguars 20–13. Biggest swing: Q3 10:25, Titans +10.0% win probability on one snap.
10.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Brian ThomasJaguarsQ2 4:49(4:49) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 7-B.Thomas pushed ob at TEN 38 for 31 yards (29-J.Brownlee).
8.2pts
Mason RudolphJaguarsQ4 3:13(3:13) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph sacked at JAX 14 for -3 yards (94-M.Smith).
9.2pts
What separated them
Red zone
Jaguars won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Titans at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Jaguars won this one — +0.37 expected points per dropback, against Titans at +0.02 expected points per dropback.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Jaguars won this one — no giveaways, against Titans at 1 giveaway.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jaguars won this one — 8 of 13 on third down, against Titans at 7 of 14 on third down.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Titans154 of 167 plays carry both curves
(10:25) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass deep middle to 0-C.Ridley to JAX 26 for 19 yards (30-M.Brown).
Swing −10.0 for JaguarsExpected points −2.74 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 7 points higher than the market did.play 93
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 10:25JAX +10% win prob(10:25) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass deep middle to 0-C.Ridley to JAX 26 for 19 yards (30-M.Brown).
4th · 3:13TEN +9% win prob(3:13) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph sacked at JAX 14 for -3 yards (94-M.Smith).
2nd · 4:49JAX +8% win prob(4:49) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 7-B.Thomas pushed ob at TEN 38 for 31 yards (29-J.Brownlee).
4th · 14:06JAX +8% win prob(14:06) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle to 11-P.Washington to TEN 46 for 24 yards (35-D.Worley; 44-M.Brown).
3rd · 6:57JAX +8% win prob(6:57) 11-M.Rudolph pass short left to 84-N.Vannett for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 7:11JAX +8% win prob(7:11) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 7-B.Thomas for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:50
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cam Little's 48-yard field goal with 10:50 left in the 1st put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:50Cam Little·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.MatiscikLead never changed again+30–3
2nd9:06Parker Washington·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jonesfrom Mac Jones+70–10
2nd2:06Cam Little·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+30–13
2nd0:03Matthew Wright·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.Cox+33–13
4th7:11Brian Thomas·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jonesfrom Mac Jones+710–20
4th2:05Matthew Wright·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.Cox+313–20
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by categoryJaguars
Titans4–5Jaguars
337Total yards296
5.3Yards per play5.3
50%Success rate48%
50%Third-down rate62%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays5
21First downs18
3Sacks taken2
1Turnovers0
The read
Jaguars ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Titans: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.15Jaguars: +0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.02Titans: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.37Jaguars: +0.37 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.06Titans: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.04Jaguars: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 64 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 56 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Titans 2, Jaguars 2.
NoteTitans outgained Jaguars 337-296 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · −0.5 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Jaguars13.2%
inside their normal wobble · +3.1 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (+0.79× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteTEN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 7.9%, 13.6 points below their season mean of 21.5% and 1.6 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
62Corey LevinC · Every snap100%69 snaps
55JC LathamT · Every snap100%69 snaps
60Daniel BrunskillC · Every snap100%69 snaps
77Peter SkoronskiG · Every snap100%69 snaps
11Mason RudolphQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
15Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Every snap100%69 snaps
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Rudolph pass−10% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(11:50) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass short middle intended for 36-J.Chestnut INTERCEPTED by 33-D.Lloyd (98-J.Jefferson) at TEN 46. 33-D.Lloyd to TEN 43 for 3 yards (36-J.Chestnut).
Q2 11:50 · Titans · 2nd & 20 at TEN 42 · gained nothing · -4.27 EP · −9.7% win probability
152 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 85 yards from the TEN 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
46%
Yards
632
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59-0.0156%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.2755%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.4922%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Titans0Jaguars3
Field goal10 plays, from the Jaguars 32 to the Titans 30
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Jaguars 41
Punt11 plays, from the Jaguars 4 to the Jaguars 46
The period ended4 plays, from the Titans 7 to the Titans 13
2nd quarter50 plays
Intercepted7 plays, from the Titans 19 to the Jaguars 48
Titans0Jaguars9
Titans0Jaguars10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Titans 43 to the Titans 2
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 21 to the Titans 39
Titans0Jaguars13
Field goal12 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Titans 26
Titans3Jaguars13
Field goal16 plays, from the Titans 29 to the Jaguars 21
3rd quarter1 plays
2nd quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter32 plays
Titans9Jaguars13
Titans10Jaguars13
Touchdown15 plays, from the Titans 15 to the Jaguars 8
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Jaguars 34
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 28 to the Titans 39
The period ended4 plays, from the Jaguars 26 to the Jaguars 36
4th quarter50 plays
Titans10Jaguars19
Titans10Jaguars20
Touchdown16 plays, from the Jaguars 31 to the Titans 11
Titans13Jaguars20
Field goal14 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Jaguars 10
The period ended8 plays, from the Jaguars 31 to the Jaguars 39
The period ended10 plays, from the Titans 26 to the Jaguars 26
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Titans -1
Closing total
38
Titans moneyline
-108
Jaguars moneyline
-112
Titans closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 38; the game landed 33 — under by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 70°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the south-west; 0.02 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Titans 7 days · Jaguars 7 days
Coaches
Brian Callahan vs Doug Pederson
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
TEN +7% win prob
(11:50) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass short middle intended for 36-J.Chestnut INTERCEPTED by 33-D.Lloyd (98-J.Jefferson) at TEN 46. 33-D.Lloyd to TEN 43 for 3 yards (36-J.Chestnut).
1st · 6:14JAX +7% win prob(6:14) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 1-T.Etienne pushed ob at JAX 32 for 26 yards (44-M.Brown).
