2024 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2024 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Tennessee Titans

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

TEN -1 upsetU 38 ✓16 mph windTitans closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Jacksonville Jaguars 20–13. Biggest swing: Q3 10:25, JAX +10% win probability on one snap. Played in 16 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 10:25TEN 3 — JAX 13TEN ball · 3rd & 8JAX 76%

(10:25) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass deep middle to 0-C.Ridley to JAX 26 for 19 yards (30-M.Brown).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 10:25JAX +10% win prob(10:25) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass deep middle to 0-C.Ridley to JAX 26 for 19 yards (30-M.Brown).
Q4 · 3:13TEN +9% win prob(3:13) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph sacked at JAX 14 for -3 yards (94-M.Smith).
Q2 · 4:49JAX +8% win prob(4:49) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 7-B.Thomas pushed ob at TEN 38 for 31 yards (29-J.Brownlee).
Q4 · 14:06JAX +8% win prob(14:06) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle to 11-P.Washington to TEN 46 for 24 yards (35-D.Worley; 44-M.Brown).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:50JAX Field goal
(10:50) 39-C.Little 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: TEN 0 — JAX 3
Q2 · 9:06JAX Touchdown
(9:06) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 11-P.Washington for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 0 — JAX 10
Q2 · 2:06JAX Field goal
(2:06) 39-C.Little 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: TEN 0 — JAX 13
Q2 · 0:03TEN Field goal
(:03) 7-M.Wright 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: TEN 3 — JAX 13
Q3 · 6:57TEN Touchdown
(6:57) 11-M.Rudolph pass short left to 84-N.Vannett for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 10 — JAX 13
Q4 · 7:11JAX Touchdown
(7:11) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 7-B.Thomas for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 10 — JAX 20
Q4 · 2:05TEN Field goal
(2:05) 7-M.Wright 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: TEN 13 — JAX 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Jaguars
Offensive plays	64	56
Total yards	337 (edge)	296
Yards per play	5.3	5.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.04	0.15 (edge)
Success rate	50% (edge)	48%
Dropback rate	59%	46%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.02	0.37 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.06 (edge)	-0.04
Third downs	7/14	8/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Titans outgained Jaguars 337–296 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TEN

Mason RudolphQB

19/31, 193 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

0.2 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Mac JonesQB

15/22, 174 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.6 expected points added · +2.1% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Tyjae SpearsRB

20 att, 95 yds, 0 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

15 att, 49 yds, 0 TD

-3.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Brian ThomasWR

7/10 for 91 yds, 1 TD

48% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

Calvin RidleyWR

5/6 for 84 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 7.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 32	10	38	4:14	Field goal +3
2	TEN	TEN 30	6	22	3:04	Punt
3	JAX	JAX 4	11	54	5:35	Punt
4	TEN	TEN 7	9	45	5:23	Interception
5	JAX	TEN 43	6	43	2:45	Touchdown +7
6	TEN	TEN 21	6	23	1:41	Punt
7	JAX	JAX 20	12	54	5:16	Field goal +3
8	TEN	TEN 29	11	45	2:02	Field goal +3
9	TEN	TEN 15	15	89	8:09	Touchdown +7
10	JAX	JAX 30	5	10	1:37	Punt
11	TEN	TEN 28	7	5	3:58	Punt
12	JAX	JAX 26	17	89	9:11	Touchdown +7
13	TEN	TEN 30	13	65	5:03	Field goal +3
14	JAX	JAX 31	5	8	0:33	Punt
15	TEN	TEN 26	8	43	1:20	Turnover on downs
16	JAX	JAX 26	1	0	0:09	End of game

7 of 16 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 89 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mason Rudolph	19/31	193	1	1	3	0.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Tyjae Spears	20	95	4.8	-0.4
Mason Rudolph	5	23	4.6	0.8
Chigoziem Okonkwo	1	17	17.0	1.1
Julius Chestnut	3	17	5.7	0.3
Calvin Ridley	1	7	7.0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Calvin Ridley	5	6	84	0	20%	7.5
Chigoziem Okonkwo	5	7	42	0	23%	1.7
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	3	6	37	0	20%	-1.1
Tyler Boyd	2	4	14	0	13%	0.7
Tyjae Spears	3	4	8	0	13%	-2.6
Nick Vannett	1	1	8	1	3%	2.3
Julius Chestnut	0	1	0	0	3%	-4.3
Josh Whyle	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Luke Gifford	5	3	0.0	1
Mike Brown	5	3	0.0	0
Daryl Worley	4	3	0.0	0
Jarvis Brownlee	3	3	0.0	0
Arden Key	1	4	0.0	0
Jerome Baker	2	3	1.0	1
Jeffery Simmons	2	2	0.0	0
Roger McCreary	4	0	0.0	0
Chidobe Awuzie	2	1	0.0	1
T'Vondre Sweat	1	2	0.0	0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	15/22	174	2	0	2	7.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Travis Etienne	15	49	3.3	-3.2
Tank Bigsby	11	33	3.0	-1.4
Mac Jones	6	22	3.7	3.8
Brian Thomas	1	18	18.0	1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brian Thomas	7	10	91	1	48%	6.9
Parker Washington	3	3	31	1	14%	3.9
Travis Etienne	1	2	26	0	10%	2.3
D'Ernest Johnson	2	2	11	0	10%	-0.9
Tim Jones	1	1	11	0	5%	0.6
Devin Duvernay	1	1	4	0	5%	0.9
Tank Bigsby	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.4
Brenton Strange	0	1	0	0	5%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Foyesade Oluokun	3	8	0.0	0	1
Andre Cisco	6	2	0.0	0	0
Montaric Brown	5	2	0.0	0	1
Devin Lloyd	4	2	0.0	1	1
Tyson Campbell	5	0	0.0	0	0
Jarrian Jones	4	1	0.0	0	0
Josh Hines-Allen	2	3	1.0	0	0
Antonio Johnson	3	0	0.0	0	1
Arik Armstead	0	3	0.0	0	1
Andrew Wingard	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -1
Closing total: 38
TEN moneyline: -108
JAX moneyline: -112

Titans closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 38; the game landed 33 — under by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 72°F, wind 16 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: TEN 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches: Brian Callahan vs Doug Pederson

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 16 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.