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Buffalo Bills 16 at New England Patriots 23. Final.
Bills -3 upsetO 36.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 18
New England Patriots 23, Bills 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 10:22, 1st and 10 — 19.0 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 10:22 · 1st and 10
Unnamed on the sheet
Bills
(10:22) 19-J.Milton FUMBLES (Aborted) at NE 17, RECOVERED by BUF-56-J.Solomon at NE 16.
32°F · 17.8 mph
Bills closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New England Patriots 23–16. Biggest swing: Q3 10:22, Bills +19.0% win probability on one snap. Played in 17.8 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
19.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ray DavisBillsQ2 12:14(12:14) 11-M.Trubisky pass short right to 22-R.Davis for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.1pts
Kayshon BouttePatriotsQ2 9:22(9:22) (Shotgun) 19-J.Milton pass deep middle to 9-K.Boutte for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 19-Milton 1st NFL TD pass.
17.7pts
What separated them
Red zone
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Patriots at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Bills owned this one and still lost it — -0.06 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.35 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.32 expected points per dropback, against Bills at -0.07 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bills owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Patriots at 1 giveaway.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Bills162 of 173 plays carry both curves
(10:22) 19-J.Milton FUMBLES (Aborted) at NE 17, RECOVERED by BUF-56-J.Solomon at NE 16.
Swing −19.0 for PatriotsExpected points −5.72 for PatriotsThe model had Patriots 12 points higher than the market did.play 97
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 10:22BUF +19% win prob(10:22) 19-J.Milton FUMBLES (Aborted) at NE 17, RECOVERED by BUF-56-J.Solomon at NE 16.
2nd · 9:22NE +18% win prob(9:22) (Shotgun) 19-J.Milton pass deep middle to 9-K.Boutte for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 19-Milton 1st NFL TD pass.
2nd · 12:14NE +11% win prob(12:14) 11-M.Trubisky pass short right to 22-R.Davis for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:25BUF +9% win prob(5:25) (Shotgun) 14-M.White pass short right to 1-C.Samuel to NE 44 for 3 yards (29-I.Bolden; 53-C.Elliss).
1st · 5:41NE +9% win prob(5:41) (Shotgun) 19-J.Milton pass short left to 4-A.Gibson to BUF 1 for 12 yards (48-E.Ulofoshio; 3-D.Hamlin).
2nd · 2:00NE +9% win prob(2:00) 17-B.Baringer punts 36 yards to BUF 5, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-27-M.Dial.
4th · 8:58
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Joey Slye's 41-yard field goal with 1:04 left in the 3rd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
2nd9:22Kayshon Boutte·48-yd TD catch48-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Miltonfrom Joe Milton+77–14
2nd4:44Tyler Bass·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.Ferguson+310–14
3rd7:59James Cook·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide right+616–14
3rd1:04Joey Slye·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.CardonaLead never changed again+316–17
4th8:58Joey Slye·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Cardona+316–20
4th2:00Joey Slye·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Cardona+316–23
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryPatriots
Bills4–4Patriots
259Total yards312
4.0Yards per play5.4
42%Success rate43%
40%Third-down rate36%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
3Explosive plays3
15First downs19
0Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Bills, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.07Bills: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.03Patriots: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.07Bills: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.32Patriots: +0.32 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Bills: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.35Patriots: −0.35 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 65 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Patriots’s 58 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Bills 2, Patriots 3.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's play-action rate turned over: 3.4% in week 17 against 18.2% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 19 pts
inside their normal wobble · −2.8 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Patriots6.1%
inside their normal wobble · −4.1 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.58× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NoteBUF's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -15.9 pts, 13.8 points below their season mean of -2.1 pts and 1.7 times their own 8.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
47 dressed · 8 inactive · 7 never used
70Alec AndersonG · Every snap100%67 snaps
68Tylan GrableT · Every snap100%67 snaps
74Ryan Van DemarkT · Every snap100%67 snaps
62Sedrick Van Pran-GrangerC · Every snap100%67 snaps
77Will ClappC · Every snap100%67 snaps
13Mack HollinsWR · Every snap99%66 snaps
0Keon ColemanWR · Full-time97%65 snaps
85Quintin MorrisTE · Full-time93%62 snaps
11Mitchell TrubiskyQB · Heavy rotation72%48 snaps
1Curtis SamuelWR · Heavy rotation67%45 snaps
22Ray DavisRB · Heavy rotation52%35 snaps
41Reggie GilliamFB · Rotational42%28 snaps
14Mike WhiteQB · Rotational30%20 snaps
26Ty JohnsonRB · Rotational25%17 snaps
4James CookRB · Situational22%15 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 8
Christian BenfordCBTaron JohnsonCBGreg RousseauDEDaQuan JonesDTEd OliverDTTerrel BernardMLBDion DawkinsTAmari CooperWR
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Milton FUMBLES−19% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(10:22) 19-J.Milton FUMBLES (Aborted) at NE 17, RECOVERED by BUF-56-J.Solomon at NE 16.
Q3 10:22 · Patriots · 1st & 10 at NE 21 · gained nothing · -5.72 EP · −18.6% win probability
160 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 75 yards from the BUF 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
40%
Yards
568
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.0656%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.0859%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR22+0.0427%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.4458%
Bills2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR5-0.4660%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 32
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Bills 46 to the Patriots 45
Bills0Patriots6
Bills0Patriots7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Patriots 45 to the Bills 1
The period ended10 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Patriots 7
2nd quarter49 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
Bills6Patriots7
Bills7Patriots7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Patriots 5 to the Patriots 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.2 seconds
Bills7Patriots13
Bills7Patriots14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Bills 48
Bills10Patriots14
Field goal10 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Patriots 31
Punt9 plays, from the Patriots 40 to the Bills 34
Punt15 plays, from the Bills 5 to the Bills 42
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Patriots 35
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Patriots 6 to the Patriots 21
Bills16Patriots14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Patriots 16 to the Patriots 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Bills16Patriots17
Field goal17 plays, from the Patriots 23 to the Bills 19
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter49 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 28 to the Bills 37
Bills16Patriots20
Field goal11 plays, from the Patriots 21 to the Bills 9
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Bills 34 to the Patriots 47
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 44 to the Patriots 46
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 15 to the Bills 18
Bills16Patriots23
Field goal8 plays, from the Bills 45 to the Bills 31
Turnover on downs5 plays
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
