2024 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 5, 2025 · Gillette Stadium

Buffalo Bills

New England PatriotsWinner

BUF -3 upsetO 36.5 ✓Bills closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New England Patriots 23–16. Biggest swing: Q3 10:22, BUF +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 10:22BUF 10 — NE 14NE ball · 1st & 10NE 59%

(10:22) 19-J.Milton FUMBLES (Aborted) at NE 17, RECOVERED by BUF-56-J.Solomon at NE 16.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 10:22BUF +19% win prob(10:22) 19-J.Milton FUMBLES (Aborted) at NE 17, RECOVERED by BUF-56-J.Solomon at NE 16.
Q2 · 9:22NE +18% win prob(9:22) (Shotgun) 19-J.Milton pass deep middle to 9-K.Boutte for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 19-Milton 1st NFL TD pass.
Q2 · 12:14NE +11% win prob(12:14) 11-M.Trubisky pass short right to 22-R.Davis for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 5:25BUF +9% win prob(5:25) (Shotgun) 14-M.White pass short right to 1-C.Samuel to NE 44 for 3 yards (29-I.Bolden; 53-C.Elliss).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 4:28NE Touchdown
(4:28) (Shotgun) 19-J.Milton left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. 19-J.Milton 1st NFL TD. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 0 — NE 7
Q2 · 12:14BUF Touchdown
(12:14) 11-M.Trubisky pass short right to 22-R.Davis for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — NE 7
Q2 · 9:22NE Touchdown
(9:22) (Shotgun) 19-J.Milton pass deep middle to 9-K.Boutte for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 19-Milton 1st NFL TD pass. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — NE 14
Q2 · 4:44BUF Field goal
(4:44) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: BUF 10 — NE 14
Q3 · 7:59BUF Touchdown
(7:59) 4-J.Cook up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: BUF 16 — NE 14
Q3 · 1:04NE Field goal
(1:04) 13-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: BUF 16 — NE 17
Q4 · 8:58NE Field goal
(8:58) 13-J.Slye 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: BUF 16 — NE 20
Q4 · 2:00NE Field goal
(2:00) 13-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: BUF 16 — NE 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Patriots
Offensive plays	65	58
Total yards	259	312 (edge)
Yards per play	4.0	5.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.07	0.03 (edge)
Success rate	42%	43% (edge)
Dropback rate	51%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07	0.32 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06 (edge)	-0.35
Third downs	6/15 (edge)	4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	3
First downs gained on snaps	15	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	1
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Joe MiltonQB

22/29, 241 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

11.8 expected points added · +17.1% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

15/21, 101 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

4.5 expected points added · +6.1% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Ray DavisRB

15 att, 64 yds, 0 TD

-0.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Antonio GibsonRB

12 att, 41 yds, 0 TD

-2.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Kayshon BoutteWR

7/7 for 117 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 9.7 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Curtis SamuelWR

7/8 for 52 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · -1.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 30	5	-7	1:35	Punt
2	BUF	BUF 46	4	9	1:42	Turnover on downs
3	NE	NE 45	14	55	7:18	Touchdown +7
4	BUF	BUF 25	15	61	7:16	Touchdown +7
5	NE	NE 30	7	75	2:59	Touchdown +7
6	BUF	BUF 30	9	49	4:31	Field goal +3
7	NE	NE 40	8	24	2:48	Punt
8	BUF	BUF 5	11	47	1:51	Punt
9	BUF	BUF 30	11	35	3:57	Punt
10	NE	NE 6	2	15	0:46	Fumble
11	BUF	NE 16	6	16	2:21	Touchdown +6
12	NE	NE 23	13	64	6:56	Field goal +3
13	BUF	BUF 30	5	17	1:58	Punt
14	NE	NE 21	11	70	5:09	Field goal +3
15	BUF	BUF 34	8	22	3:37	Turnover on downs
16	NE	NE 44	4	2	0:58	Punt
17	BUF	BUF 15	4	3	1:04	Punt
18	NE	BUF 45	6	14	1:19	Field goal +3
19	BUF	BUF 29	5	0	0:29	Turnover on downs
20	NE	BUF 29	3	0	1:26	End of game

8 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 75 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	15/21	101	1	0	0	4.5
Mike White	3/11	28	0	0	0	-7.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ray Davis	15	64	4.3	0	-0.0
James Cook	10	28	2.8	1	-0.7
Ty Johnson	2	13	6.5	0	0.9
Mitchell Trubisky	4	12	3.0	0	-4.0
Keon Coleman	1	9	9.0	0	0.8
Reggie Gilliam	1	4	4.0	0	1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Curtis Samuel	7	8	52	0	26%	-1.3
Keon Coleman	2	10	31	0	32%	-3.8
Mack Hollins	3	4	25	0	13%	0.9
Quintin Morris	3	4	20	0	13%	0.4
Ray Davis	2	3	1	1	10%	2.6
Ty Johnson	1	2	0	0	6%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Joe Andreessen	3	7	0
Ja'Marcus Ingram	3	3	0
Javon Solomon	2	4	0
Damar Hamlin	4	2	0
Kaiir Elam	3	2	0
Brandon Codrington	3	1	0
Edefuan Ulofoshio	3	1	1
Dorian Williams	1	2	0
Cole Bishop	1	2	1
DeWayne Carter	1	2	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Milton	22/29	241	1	0	0	11.8
Drake Maye	0/1	0	0	0	1	-2.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Antonio Gibson	12	41	3.4	0	-2.6
Terrell Jennings	8	20	2.5	0	-2.7
Joe Milton	10	16	1.6	1	-4.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kayshon Boutte	7	7	117	1	25%	9.7
Demario Douglas	3	4	34	0	14%	2.5
Austin Hooper	4	6	27	0	21%	-1.4
Antonio Gibson	4	6	20	0	21%	-0.1
Jaheim Bell	1	1	19	0	4%	1.5
Kendrick Bourne	2	2	12	0	7%	0.5
Javon Baker	1	1	12	0	4%	1.2
Terrell Jennings	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Christian Elliss	5	8	1
Marcellas Dial	4	1	0
Anfernee Jennings	2	3	1
Jaylinn Hawkins	1	3	0
Titus Leo	4	0	1
Isaiah Bolden	2	1	0
Deatrich Wise	1	2	0
Kyle Dugger	2	0	0
Jeremiah Pharms	1	1	0
Truman Jones	2	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -3
Closing total: 36.5
BUF moneyline: -166
NE moneyline: +140

Bills closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 36.5; the game landed 39 — over by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 33°F, wind 14 mph
Referee: Alan Eck
Rest: BUF 7 days · NE 8 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Jerod Mayo

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.