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2024 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 5, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Carolina PanthersWinner

44

Atlanta Falcons

38

ATL -7.5 upsetO 48.5 ✓Dome

Carolina Panthers 44–38. Biggest swing: Q4 0:17, CAR +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4ATL ↑CAR ↓
Q4 · 0:17CAR 38 — ATL 38ATL ball · 1st & 10ATL 65%

(:17) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right guard to ATL 25 for 13 yards (2-M.Jackson; 23-D.Jackson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:17CAR +23% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right guard to ATL 25 for 13 yards (2-M.Jackson; 23-D.Jackson).
  2. Q4 · 9:55ATL +19% win prob(9:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep middle to 5-D.London for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 4:09ATL +18% win prob(4:09) 9-B.Young scrambles right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 6:15ATL +14% win prob(6:15) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 0-J.Sanders to ATL 19 for 28 yards (3-J.Bates).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:12ATL Field goal

    (11:12) 37-R.Patterson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: CAR 0 — ATL 3
  2. Q1 · 7:07CAR Field goal

    (7:07) 4-E.Pineiro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: CAR 3 — ATL 3
  3. Q2 · 10:53CAR Touchdown

    (10:53) 9-B.Young scrambles right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 10 — ATL 3
  4. Q2 · 5:34ATL Touchdown

    (5:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 10 — ATL 10
  5. Q2 · 2:55CAR Touchdown

    (2:55) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 6-M.Sanders for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 17 — ATL 10
  6. Q2 · 1:39ATL Touchdown

    (1:39) 7-B.Robinson left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 17 — ATL 17
  7. Q2 · 0:08ATL Touchdown

    (:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep left to 5-D.London for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ATL-5-D.London, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 17 — ATL 24
  8. Q3 · 10:47CAR Touchdown

    (10:47) 70-B.Christensen reported in as eligible. 9-B.Young pass short middle to 82-T.Tremble for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 24 — ATL 24
  9. Q3 · 1:06CAR Touchdown

    (1:06) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 83-D.Moore for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 31 — ATL 24
  10. Q4 · 9:55ATL Touchdown

    (9:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep middle to 5-D.London for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 31 — ATL 31
  11. Q4 · 4:09CAR Touchdown

    (4:09) 9-B.Young scrambles right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 38 — ATL 31
  12. Q4 · 0:52ATL Touchdown

    (:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 38 — ATL 38
  13. OT · 3:18CAR Touchdown

    (3:18) 6-M.Sanders right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: CAR 44 — ATL 38

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPanthersFalcons
Offensive plays6477
Total yards426537 (edge)
Yards per play6.77.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.41 (edge)0.29
Success rate50%62% (edge)
Dropback rate61%52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.62 (edge)0.20
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.080.39 (edge)
Third downs7/129/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)815 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps2531 (edge)
Sacks taken0 (edge)1
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Falcons outgained Panthers 537–426 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Michael PenixQB

21/38, 312 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

5.5 expected points added · -6.8% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

25/34, 251 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

20.0 expected points added · +6.1% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

28 att, 170 yds, 2 TD

11.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Miles SandersRB

17 att, 66 yds, 1 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Drake LondonWR

10/18 for 187 yds, 2 TD

49% of team targets · 10.8 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Ray-Ray McCloudWR

4/7 for 66 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · -3.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1ATLATL 2913583:52Field goal +3
2CARCAR 309534:05Field goal +3
3ATLATL 3112276:00Turnover on downs
4CARCAR 4212585:16Touchdown +7
5ATLATL 3012705:20Touchdown +7
6CARCAR 257752:39Touchdown +7
7ATLATL 308701:14Touchdown +7
8CARCAR 30510:54Punt
9ATLATL 197810:37Touchdown +7
10CARCAR 30200:03End of half
11CARCAR 30551:32Punt
12ATLATL 123151:24Interception
13CARATL 215211:21Touchdown +7
14ATLATL 329344:30Missed field goal
15CARCAR 4210585:11Touchdown +7
16ATLATL 2613996:12Touchdown +7
17CARCAR 3011855:49Touchdown +7
18ATLATL 3013703:15Touchdown +7
19CARCAR 30500:29Punt
20ATLATL 121130:17Turnover on downs
21CARCAR 3011706:46Touchdown +6

13 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 99 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bryce Young25/3425130020.0
Jalen Coker1/1190001.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Miles Sanders17663.91-1.4
Raheem Blackshear44711.802.8
Bryce Young5244.823.0
Mike Boone4184.500.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jalen Coker7762020%7.8
Miles Sanders3450111%4.1
Adam Thielen5644017%1.8
Ja'Tavion Sanders3535014%1.6
Tommy Tremble233019%3.7
Xavier Legette3530014%0.9
Feleipe Franks111203%1.0
David Moore13919%1.7
Mike Boone11-203%-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Chandler Wooten360.000
Demani Richardson450.000
Jordan Fuller170.000
Jaden Crumedy140.000
A'Shawn Robinson140.000
Xavier Woods230.001
Cam Gill140.000
D.J. Wonnum140.000
Caleb Farley400.000
Shy Tuttle130.000

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Michael Penix21/383122115.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bijan Robinson281706.1211.5
Tyler Allgeier9525.802.9
Michael Penix155.012.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Drake London1018187249%10.8
Ray-Ray McCloud4766019%-3.1
KhaDarel Hodge122405%1.1
Tyler Allgeier221705%0.8
Kyle Pitts231508%0.3
Bijan Robinson253014%-2.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kaden Elliss370.000
Nate Landman350.000
Dee Alford520.001
Justin Simmons420.000
Jessie Bates410.000
A.J. Terrell210.000
Clark Phillips210.002
Ruke Orhorhoro120.000
Grady Jarrett200.000
Arnold Ebiketie200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
ATL -7.5
Closing total
48.5
CAR moneyline
+300
ATL moneyline
-380

Falcons closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 82 — over by 33.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
CAR 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches
Dave Canales vs Raheem Morris

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.