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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Panthers180 of 191 plays carry both curves
(:17) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right guard to ATL 25 for 13 yards (2-M.Jackson; 23-D.Jackson).
Swing −22.5 for FalconsExpected points −0.07 for FalconsModel and market agree here.play 176
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:17CAR +23% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right guard to ATL 25 for 13 yards (2-M.Jackson; 23-D.Jackson).
4th · 9:55ATL +19% win prob(9:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep middle to 5-D.London for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 4:09ATL +18% win prob(4:09) 9-B.Young scrambles right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 6:15ATL +14% win prob(6:15) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 0-J.Sanders to ATL 19 for 28 yards (3-J.Bates).
3rd · 10:47ATL +13% win prob(10:47) 70-B.Christensen reported in as eligible. 9-B.Young pass short middle to 82-T.Tremble for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 8:33ATL +13% win prob(8:33) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble pushed ob at ATL 37 for 18 yards (3-J.Bates).
3rd · 12:13
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Miles Sanders's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 3:18 left in overtime put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st11:12Riley Patterson·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+30–3
1st7:07Eddy Pineiro·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+33–3
Overtime3:18Miles Sanders·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+644–38
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Pantherscategory by categoryFalcons
Panthers3–6Falcons
426Total yards537
6.7Yards per play7.0
50%Success rate62%
58%Third-down rate64%
5Red-zone touchdowns4
8Explosive plays15
25First downs31
0Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Falcons ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Panthers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.62 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.41Panthers: +0.41 expected points added per play
+0.29Falcons: +0.29 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.62Panthers: +0.62 expected points added per play
+0.20Falcons: +0.20 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.08Panthers: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.39Falcons: +0.39 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 64 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Falcons’s 77 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 7, Falcons 6.
NoteFalcons outgained Panthers 537-426 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ATL's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 2.5 points clear of the next team along.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
high through week 18Against their seasonFourth Down
ATL's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, is past their previous high of 75.0% in week 3 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 18.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 32.2 points.
CAR's play-action rate turned over: 8.6% in week 17 against 35.9% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 3.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 13 pts
inside their normal wobble · +2.5 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Falcons0.0%
leaned — stayed blocked · −11.5 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−1.58× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
NoteCAR's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 35.9%, 13.9 points above their season mean of 22.0% and 1.7 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
68Damien LewisG · Every snap100%67 snaps
62Chandler ZavalaG · Every snap100%67 snaps
72Taylor MotonT · Every snap100%67 snaps
79Ikem EkwonuT · Every snap100%67 snaps
9Bryce YoungQB · Every snap100%67 snaps
64Cade MaysG · Every snap100%67 snaps
18Jalen CokerWR · Full-time93%62 snaps
19Adam ThielenWR · Heavy rotation76%51 snaps
6Miles SandersRB · Heavy rotation61%41 snaps
82Tommy TrembleTE · Heavy rotation60%40 snaps
83David MooreWR · Heavy rotation57%38 snaps
0Ja'Tavion SandersTE · Heavy rotation51%34 snaps
17Xavier LegetteWR · Rotational42%28 snaps
34Mike BooneRB · Rotational30%20 snaps
70Brady ChristensenG · Situational13%9 snaps
3Raheem BlackshearRB · Situational9%6 snaps
88Dan ChisenaWR · Situational4%3 snaps
84Feleipe FranksTE · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Jaycee HornCBLonnie JohnsonFSRobert HuntGJosey JewellILBJack PlummerQBVelus Jones Jr.RBDeven ThompkinsWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Andy DaltonQB
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
65Matthew BergeronG · Every snap100%79 snaps
76Kaleb McGaryT · Every snap100%79 snaps
70Jake MatthewsT · Every snap100%79 snaps
63Chris LindstromG · Every snap100%79 snaps
9Michael Penix Jr.QB · Every snap100%79 snaps
67Drew DalmanC · Every snap100%79 snaps
34Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Every snap100%79 snaps
5Drake LondonWR · Every snap99%78 snaps
12KhaDarel HodgeWR · Full-time90%71 snaps
7Bijan RobinsonRB · Full-time87%69 snaps
89Charlie WoernerTE · Heavy rotation56%44 snaps
8Kyle PittsTE · Rotational44%35 snaps
25Tyler AllgeierRB · Situational22%17 snaps
85Ross DwelleyTE · Situational1%1 snap
19Chris BlairWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Kevin KingCBBrandon DorlusDEElijah WilkinsonGJD BertrandILBBrandon ParkerTDarnell MooneyWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
M.Penix pass+24% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(9:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep middle to 5-D.London for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 9:55 · Falcons · 3rd & 20 at CAR 21 · gained 21 · +4.06 EP · +23.9% win probability
179 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 191 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 185. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 81 yards from the ATL 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
191 of 191 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
191
EPA per play
+0.25
Success rate
57%
Yards
962
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR69+0.3852%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48+0.4160%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.0913%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.7043%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
191 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
191 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Panthers0Falcons3
Field goal13 plays, from the Falcons 29 to the Panthers 13
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Panthers3Falcons3
Field goal9 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Falcons 17
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Falcons 31 to the Panthers 42
The period ended3 plays, from the Panthers 42 to the Panthers 46
2nd quarter57 plays
Panthers9Falcons3
Panthers10Falcons3
Touchdown10 plays, from midfield to the Falcons 2
Panthers10Falcons9
Panthers10Falcons10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Panthers 3
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Panthers16Falcons10
Panthers17Falcons10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Falcons 33
Panthers17Falcons16
Panthers17Falcons17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Panthers 3
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Panthers 38
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Panthers17Falcons23
Panthers17Falcons24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 19 to the Panthers 20
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Panthers 35
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.6 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Falcons 12 to the Falcons 27
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Panthers23Falcons24
Panthers24Falcons24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Falcons 21 to the Falcons 12
No good9 plays, from the Falcons 32 to the Panthers 30
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.3 seconds
Panthers30Falcons24
Panthers31Falcons24
Touchdown11 plays, from the Panthers 42 to the Falcons 9
The period ended4 plays, from the Falcons 26 to the Panthers 35
4th quarter46 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Panthers31Falcons30
Panthers31Falcons31
Touchdown13 plays, from the Panthers 32 to the Panthers 11
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Panthers37Falcons31
Panthers38Falcons31
Touchdown12 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Falcons 10
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Panthers38Falcons37
Panthers38Falcons38
Touchdown13 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Panthers 4
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFour defenders
The period ended1 play
Overtime13 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Panthers44Falcons38
Touchdown12 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Falcons 1
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Falcons -7.5
Closing total
48.5
Panthers moneyline
+300
Falcons moneyline
-380
Falcons closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 82 — over by 33.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Panthers 7 days · Falcons 7 days
Coaches
Dave Canales vs Raheem Morris
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
CAR +12% win prob
(12:13) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left intended for 34-R.McCloud INTERCEPTED by 2-M.Jackson at ATL 40. 2-M.Jackson pushed ob at ATL 21 for 19 yards (89-C.Woerner).
2nd · 0:08ATL +12% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep left to 5-D.London for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ATL-5-D.London, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
