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Chicago Bears 24, Packers 22 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:02, 2nd and 10, on Cairo Santos — 54.7 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:02 · 2nd and 10
Cairo Santos
Bears
(:02) 8-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
15°F
Packers closed -10 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Chicago Bears 24–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, Bears +54.7% win probability on one snap.
54.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.J. MoorePackersQ4 1:55(1:55) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 2-D.Moore to CHI 47 for no gain (24-C.Valentine). FUMBLES (24-C.Valentine), RECOVERED by GB-20-J.Bullard at CHI 46. 20-J.Bullard to CHI 43 for 3 yards (75-L.Borom).
40.2pts
D.J. MooreBearsQ4 0:15(:15) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 2-D.Moore to GB 33 for 18 yards (24-C.Valentine).
29.0pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Bears at 2 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Bears won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Packers at 3 of 10 on third down.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bears won this one — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Packers at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bears at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Bears159 of 168 plays carry both curves
(:02) 8-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Swing −54.7 for PackersExpected points −1.09 for PackersThe model had Bears 16 points higher than the market did.play 167
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:02GB +55% win prob(:02) 8-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
4th · 1:55CHI +40% win prob(1:55) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 2-D.Moore to CHI 47 for no gain (24-C.Valentine). FUMBLES (24-C.Valentine), RECOVERED by GB-20-J.Bullard at CHI 46. 20-J.Bullard to CHI 43 for 3 yards (75-L.Borom).
4th · 0:15GB +29% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 2-D.Moore to GB 33 for 18 yards (24-C.Valentine).
1st · 6:52CHI +23% win prob(6:52) 19-D.Whelan punts 38 yards to CHI 6, Center-42-M.Orzech. 39-J.Blackwell for 94 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 11:03CHI +21% win prob(11:03) 13-K.Allen pass short right intended for 4-D.Swift INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney at GB 26. 29-X.McKinney to GB 43 for 17 yards (58-D.Wright). FUMBLES (58-D.Wright), recovered by GB-56-E.Cooper at GB 44.
4th · 4:44GB +21% win prob(4:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep right to 18-M.Heath pushed ob at CHI 21 for 41 yards (31-K.Byard).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cairo Santos's 51-yard field goal with 0:02 left in the 4th put Chicago Bears ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st6:52Josh Blackwell·94-yd return TD94-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+77–0
1st2:28Brandon McManus·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+37–3
4th4:35Emanuel Wilson·21-yd TD run21-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+621–19
4th0:58Brandon McManus·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+321–22
4th0:02Cairo Santos·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap S.DalyLead never changed again+324–22
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryPackers
Bears2–5Packers
224Total yards367
4.0Yards per play5.9
38%Success rate44%
50%Third-down rate30%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
2Explosive plays9
15First downs21
1Sacks taken3
2Turnovers2
The read
Packers ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.17Bears: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.11Packers: −0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.21Bears: −0.21 expected points added per play
−0.19Packers: −0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Bears: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.03Packers: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 56 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Packers’s 62 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Bears 2, Packers 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CHI's early-down pass rate, 43.9%, is past their previous low of 46.5% in week 4 — the lowest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 13 pts
leaned — got home · +6.8 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+1.19× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Packers6.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.2 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−1.06× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NoteCHI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 43.9%, 14.1 points below their season mean of 58.0% and 1.4 times their own 10.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Williams pass−44% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:55) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 2-D.Moore to CHI 47 for no gain (24-C.Valentine). FUMBLES (24-C.Valentine), RECOVERED by GB-20-J.Bullard at CHI 46. 20-J.Bullard to CHI 43 for 3 yards (75-L.Borom).
Q4 1:55 · Bears · 1st & 20 at CHI 47 · lost 1 · -4.08 EP · −43.9% win probability
157 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 68 yards from the GB 20 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
40%
Yards
591
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47-0.1555%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.0649%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.3753%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.3250%
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.2820%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 15 to the Packers 35
Punt4 plays
Bears6Packers0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Packers 40 to the Bears 44
Bears7Packers0
Bears7Packers3
Field goal10 plays, from the Packers 29 to the Bears 19
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 26 to the Bears 29
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost1 play
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter45 plays
Bears13Packers3
Bears14Packers3
Touchdown3 plays, from the Packers 19 to the Packers 4
Bears14Packers9
Bears14Packers10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Packers 37 to the Bears 9
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 49
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Bears14Packers13
Field goal11 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Bears 12
Punt10 plays, from the Bears 45 to the Packers 40
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter30 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
How the play was built
A trick play, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.1 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Packers 40
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Packers 44 to the Bears 32
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 46 to the Packers 43
The period ended8 plays, from the Packers 16 to the Bears 40
4th quarter54 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs1 play
How the play was built
A screen, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Bears20Packers13
Bears21Packers13
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bears 39 to the Packers 32
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 17 to the Packers 40
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
How the play was built
A run-pass option, no huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Bears21Packers19
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Touchdown6 plays, from the Packers 49 to the Bears 21
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw0.9 seconds
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Bears 33 to the Packers 43
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Bears21Packers22
Field goal5 plays, from the Bears 43 to the Bears 35
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, thrown away.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, one linebacker and seven backsRoute runPostCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxTwo defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Bears24Packers22
Field goal11 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Packers 33
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Packers -10
Closing total
41.5
Bears moneyline
+320
Packers moneyline
-410
Packers closed -10 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 46 — over by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Bitter, 15°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the north; overcast.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Bears 10 days · Packers 7 days
Coaches
Matt Eberflus vs Matt LaFleur
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
3rd · 8:37CHI +15% win prob(8:37) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis sacked at CHI 40 for -8 yards (31-K.Byard). FUMBLES (31-K.Byard) [31-K.Byard], RECOVERED by CHI-53-T.Edwards at CHI 46.
4th · 10:11GB +14% win prob(10:11) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 2-D.Moore for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
