2024 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 5, 2025 · Lambeau Field
Chicago BearsWinner
24
Green Bay Packers
22
Chicago Bears 24–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, GB +55% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(:02) 8-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 0:02GB +55% win prob(:02) 8-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
- Q4 · 1:55CHI +40% win prob(1:55) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 2-D.Moore to CHI 47 for no gain (24-C.Valentine). FUMBLES (24-C.Valentine), RECOVERED by GB-20-J.Bullard at CHI 46. 20-J.Bullard to CHI 43 for 3 yards (75-L.Borom).
- Q4 · 0:15GB +29% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 2-D.Moore to GB 33 for 18 yards (24-C.Valentine).
- Q1 · 6:52CHI +23% win prob(6:52) 19-D.Whelan punts 38 yards to CHI 6, Center-42-M.Orzech. 39-J.Blackwell for 94 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 6:52CHI Touchdown
(6:52) 19-D.Whelan punts 38 yards to CHI 6, Center-42-M.Orzech. 39-J.Blackwell for 94 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 7 — GB 0 - Q1 · 2:28GB Field goal
(2:28) 17-B.McManus 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Score after this play: CHI 7 — GB 3 - Q2 · 14:20CHI Touchdown
(14:20) 4-D.Swift up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 14 — GB 3 - Q2 · 11:17GB Touchdown
(11:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 14 — GB 10 - Q2 · 2:00GB Field goal
(2:00) 17-B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Score after this play: CHI 14 — GB 13 - Q4 · 10:11CHI Touchdown
(10:11) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 2-D.Moore for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 21 — GB 13 - Q4 · 4:35GB Touchdown
(4:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 31-Em.Wilson right guard for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: CHI 21 — GB 19 - Q4 · 0:58GB Field goal
(:58) 17-B.McManus 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Score after this play: CHI 21 — GB 22 - Q4 · 0:02CHI Field goal
(:02) 8-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Score after this play: CHI 24 — GB 22
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Bears | Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 56 | 62 |
| Total yards | 224 | 367 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.0 | 5.9 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.17 | -0.11 (edge) |
| Success rate | 38% | 44% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 57% | 47% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.21 | -0.19 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.12 | -0.03 (edge) |
| Third downs | 7/14 (edge) | 3/10 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 2 | 9 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 15 | 21 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 1 (edge) | 3 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · CHI
21/29, 148 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
4.4 expected points added · +14.2% completion over expected
Passing · GB
10/13, 136 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-2.8 expected points added · +11.9% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | GB 15 | 7 | 20 | 3:02 | Punt | |
| 2 | CHI | CHI 30 | 4 | -9 | 2:19 | Punt | |
| 3 | GB | GB 40 | 7 | 16 | 3:05 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 4 | GB | GB 29 | 9 | 47 | 4:10 | Field goal +3 | |
| 5 | CHI | CHI 26 | 5 | 3 | 2:14 | Punt | |
| 6 | GB | GB 27 | 1 | 4 | 0:08 | Fumble | |
| 7 | CHI | GB 21 | 4 | 21 | 0:45 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 8 | GB | GB 37 | 9 | 63 | 3:05 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 9 | CHI | CHI 20 | 8 | 27 | 3:47 | Punt | |
| 10 | GB | GB 20 | 11 | 68 | 5:28 | Field goal +3 | |
| 11 | CHI | CHI 45 | 8 | 15 | 1:27 | Punt | |
| 12 | GB | GB 11 | 1 | 4 | 0:30 | End of half | |
| 13 | CHI | CHI 30 | 9 | 30 | 4:10 | Interception | |
| 14 | GB | GB 44 | 5 | 10 | 2:22 | Fumble | |
| 15 | CHI | CHI 46 | 7 | 21 | 4:20 | Punt | |
| 16 | GB | GB 16 | 8 | 45 | 4:13 | Turnover on downs | |
| 17 | CHI | CHI 39 | 9 | 61 | 4:53 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 18 | GB | GB 17 | 6 | 23 | 2:28 | Punt | |
| 19 | CHI | CHI 20 | 4 | -5 | 1:36 | Punt | |
| 20 | GB | GB 49 | 5 | 61 | 1:30 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 21 | CHI | CHI 33 | 7 | 23 | 2:39 | Fumble | |
| 22 | GB | CHI 43 | 4 | 6 | 0:55 | Field goal +3 | |
| 23 | CHI | CHI 20 | 7 | 37 | 0:54 | Field goal +3 |
8 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 68 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a field goal.
Full stat lines
Box score
Chicago Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 21/29 | 148 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4.4 |
| Keenan Allen | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -5.9 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 20 | 65 | 3.3 | 1 | -2.7 |
| Caleb Williams | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 | -0.5 |
| D.J. Moore | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | -1.1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Moore | 9 | 10 | 86 | 1 | 42% | 4.0 |
| Keenan Allen | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 13% | 2.9 |
| Rome Odunze | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 8% | 0.5 |
| Roschon Johnson | 5 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 21% | -0.0 |
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8% | -1.3 |
| D'Andre Swift | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | -6.4 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Byard | 8 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyrique Stevenson | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonathan Owens | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Johnson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyler Gordon | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Edwards | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Williams | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Cowart | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terell Smith | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
Green Bay Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | 10/13 | 136 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2.8 |
| Jordan Love | 7/12 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.8 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emanuel Wilson | 14 | 73 | 5.2 | 1 | 2.9 |
| Christopher Brooks | 8 | 59 | 7.4 | 0 | 1.7 |
| Josh Jacobs | 6 | 44 | 7.3 | 1 | 4.3 |
| Malik Willis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Jayden Reed | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | -9.4 |
| Bo Melton | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | -0.4 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Heath | 3 | 5 | 53 | 0 | 20% | 3.4 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 5 | 6 | 49 | 0 | 24% | 1.1 |
| Jayden Reed | 2 | 2 | 48 | 0 | 8% | 3.1 |
| Tucker Kraft | 4 | 7 | 36 | 0 | 28% | -1.5 |
| Luke Musgrave | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 4% | 1.3 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | -0.7 |
| Christopher Brooks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -1.7 |
| Christian Watson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -0.8 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 4% | -0.9 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin Cooper | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Wilson | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kitan Oladapo | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Bullard | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keisean Nixon | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Karl Brooks | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carrington Valentine | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier McKinney | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Colby Wooden | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashan Gary | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- GB -10
- Closing total
- 41.5
- CHI moneyline
- +320
- GB moneyline
- -410
Packers closed -10 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 46 — over by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Lambeau Field
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 16°F, wind 13 mph
- Referee
- Clay Martin
- Rest
- CHI 10 days · GB 7 days
- Coaches
- Matt Eberflus vs Matt LaFleur
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.