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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Cincinnati Bengals 19 at Pittsburgh Steelers 17. Final.
Bengals -2.5 no coverU 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 18
Cincinnati Bengals 19, Steelers 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 5:25, 4th and 1 — 18.5 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:25 · 4th and 1
Unnamed on the sheet
Steelers
(5:25) 8-C.Waitman punts 35 yards to CIN 45, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 38-D.Ivey MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by PIT-83-Co.Heyward at CIN 38.
19°F
Bengals closed -2.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Cincinnati Bengals 19–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 5:25, Steelers +18.5% win probability on one snap.
18.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetBengalsQ2 2:59(2:59) 8-R.Rehkow punts 57 yards to PIT 24, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 19-C.Austin to PIT 31 for 7 yards (50-S.Heyward). FUMBLES (50-S.Heyward), RECOVERED by CIN-59-A.Davis-Gaither at PIT 33.
15.7pts
Russell WilsonBengalsQ4 0:24(:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at PIT 40 for -5 yards (91-T.Hendrickson).
17.2pts
What separated them
Red zone
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Bengals at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Bengals won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 4 chunk plays, against Bengals at 0 chunk plays.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Bengals won this one — -0.03 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.26 expected points per carry.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Bengals165 of 178 plays carry both curves
(5:25) 8-C.Waitman punts 35 yards to CIN 45, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 38-D.Ivey MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by PIT-83-Co.Heyward at CIN 38.
Swing +18.5 for SteelersExpected points +4.10 for SteelersModel and market agree here.play 153
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 5:25PIT +19% win prob(5:25) 8-C.Waitman punts 35 yards to CIN 45, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 38-D.Ivey MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by PIT-83-Co.Heyward at CIN 38.
4th · 0:24CIN +17% win prob(:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at PIT 40 for -5 yards (91-T.Hendrickson).
2nd · 2:59PIT +16% win prob(2:59) 8-R.Rehkow punts 57 yards to PIT 24, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 19-C.Austin to PIT 31 for 7 yards (50-S.Heyward). FUMBLES (50-S.Heyward), RECOVERED by CIN-59-A.Davis-Gaither at PIT 33.
4th · 4:09CIN +12% win prob(4:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at CIN 33 for -6 yards (91-T.Hendrickson).
4th · 2:00CIN +12% win prob(2:00) 8-R.Rehkow punts 42 yards to PIT 18, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 19-C.Austin to PIT 24 for 6 yards (48-C.Adomitis).
4th · 0:15CIN +11% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 88-P.Freiermuth.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ja'Marr Chase's 12-yard touchdown catch with 9:53 left in the 1st put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:53Ja'Marr Chase·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe BurrowLead never changed again+77–0
1st1:29Cade York·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder R.Rehkow · snap C.Adomitis+310–0
2nd0:18Cade York·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder R.Rehkow · snap C.Adomitis+313–7
3rd7:01Cade York·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder R.Rehkow · snap C.Adomitis+316–7
4th11:06Cade York·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder R.Rehkow · snap C.Adomitis+319–7
4th8:12Pat Freiermuth·19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+719–14
4th2:44Chris Boswell·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap C.Kuntz+319–17
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categorySteelers
Bengals5–3Steelers
315Total yards193
4.5Yards per play3.3
49%Success rate34%
38%Third-down rate33%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
0Explosive plays4
20First downs14
4Sacks taken4
1Turnovers0
The read
Bengals ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Steelers, in explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.03Bengals: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.17Steelers: −0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.03Bengals: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.12Steelers: −0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.03Bengals: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.26Steelers: −0.26 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 70 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Steelers’s 58 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 4, Steelers 2.
NoteBengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PIT's play-action rate, 2.7%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 9.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 10.4% in week 17.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
CIN's pass rate over expected, +15.1 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 3.5 points clear of the next team along.
70 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 26 pts
right on their number · +3.6 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Steelers10.0%
inside their normal wobble · −6.6 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
NotePIT's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 2.7%, 24.2 points below their season mean of 26.9% and 2.0 times their own 12.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
64Ted KarrasC · Every snap100%74 snaps
67Cordell VolsonG · Every snap100%74 snaps
75Orlando BrownT · Every snap100%74 snaps
9Joe BurrowQB · Every snap100%74 snaps
65Alex CappaG · Every snap100%74 snaps
1Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Every snap99%73 snaps
34Khalil HerbertRB · Full-time95%70 snaps
80Andrei IosivasWR · Full-time86%64 snaps
61Cody FordG · Full-time81%60 snaps
88Mike GesickiTE · Heavy rotation69%51 snaps
5Tee HigginsWR · Heavy rotation68%50 snaps
89Drew SampleTE · Heavy rotation55%41 snaps
71Amarius MimsT · Situational19%14 snaps
85Cam GrandyTE · Situational12%9 snaps
18Isaiah WilliamsWR · Situational7%5 snaps
87Tanner HudsonTE · Situational5%4 snaps
32Trayveon WilliamsRB · Situational1%1 snap
19Kendric PryorWR · Situational1%1 snap
36Kendall MiltonRB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Sam HubbardDEIsaiah ThomasOLBChase BrownRBAndrew StueberTTanner McLachlanTEJermaine BurtonWRCharlie JonesWR
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson sacked−19% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at PIT 40 for -5 yards (91-T.Hendrickson).
Q4 0:24 · Steelers · 2nd & 7 at PIT 45 · lost 5 · -0.52 EP · −19.2% win probability
163 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 82 yards from the CIN 13 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
45%
Yards
507
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.0577%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.1476%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24-0.1958%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.2044%
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.440%
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Bengals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Bengals0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Bengals6Steelers0
Bengals7Steelers0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bengals 27 to the Steelers 12
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 40 to the Steelers 43
Bengals10Steelers0
Field goal11 plays, from the Bengals 33 to the Steelers 26
The period ended6 plays, from the Steelers 27 to the Steelers 37
2nd quarter56 plays
Bengals10Steelers6
Bengals10Steelers7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bengals 39 to the Bengals 1
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Bengals 44 to the Steelers 37
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 38 to the Steelers 45
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 16 to the Bengals 23
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Steelers 33 to the Steelers 21
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
The period ended7 plays, from the Steelers 17 to the Steelers 37
Bengals13Steelers7
Field goal9 plays, from the Steelers 37 to the Steelers 9
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter31 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Steelers 32
Bengals16Steelers7
Field goal11 plays, from the Bengals 36 to the Steelers 5
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Steelers 44
The period ended8 plays, from the Bengals 13 to the Steelers 46
4th quarter57 plays
Bengals19Steelers7
Field goal10 plays, from the Steelers 41 to the Steelers 5
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Bengals19Steelers13
Bengals19Steelers14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Steelers 35 to the Bengals 19
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 27 to the Bengals 45
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 11 to the Steelers 20
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Bengals19Steelers17
Field goal7 plays, from the Bengals 38 to the Bengals 27
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 44 to the Steelers 49
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
The period ended9 plays, from the Steelers 24 to the Steelers 45
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bengals -2.5
Closing total
48.5
Bengals moneyline
-148
Steelers moneyline
+124
Bengals closed -2.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 36 — under by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Bitter, 19°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the west; overcast.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Bengals 7 days · Steelers 10 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs Mike Tomlin
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 8:12
PIT +9% win prob
(8:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:13CIN +9% win prob(1:13) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 31-B.Bishop (6-P.Queen) at PIT 17. 31-B.Bishop to PIT 17 for no gain (1-J.Chase).
