2024 Week 18 · Sat, Jan 4, 2025 · Acrisure Stadium

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

Pittsburgh Steelers

CIN -2.5 no coverU 48.5 ✓19°FBengals closed -2.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Cincinnati Bengals 19–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 5:25, PIT +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 5:25CIN 19 — PIT 14PIT ball · 4th & 1CIN 82%

(5:25) 8-C.Waitman punts 35 yards to CIN 45, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 38-D.Ivey MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by PIT-83-Co.Heyward at CIN 38.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 5:25PIT +19% win prob(5:25) 8-C.Waitman punts 35 yards to CIN 45, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 38-D.Ivey MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by PIT-83-Co.Heyward at CIN 38.
Q4 · 0:24CIN +17% win prob(:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at PIT 40 for -5 yards (91-T.Hendrickson).
Q2 · 2:59PIT +16% win prob(2:59) 8-R.Rehkow punts 57 yards to PIT 24, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 19-C.Austin to PIT 31 for 7 yards (50-S.Heyward). FUMBLES (50-S.Heyward), RECOVERED by CIN-59-A.Davis-Gaither at PIT 33.
Q4 · 4:09CIN +12% win prob(4:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at CIN 33 for -6 yards (91-T.Hendrickson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:53CIN Touchdown
(9:53) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 1-J.Chase for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 7 — PIT 0
Q1 · 1:29CIN Field goal
(1:29) 3-C.York 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
Score after this play: CIN 10 — PIT 0
Q2 · 9:57PIT Touchdown
(9:57) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 22-N.Harris left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 10 — PIT 7
Q2 · 0:18CIN Field goal
(:18) 3-C.York 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
Score after this play: CIN 13 — PIT 7
Q3 · 7:01CIN Field goal
(7:01) 3-C.York 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
Score after this play: CIN 16 — PIT 7
Q4 · 11:06CIN Field goal
(11:06) 3-C.York 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. ** Injury Update: CIN-61-C.Ford has returned to the game.
Score after this play: CIN 19 — PIT 7
Q4 · 8:12PIT Touchdown
(8:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 19 — PIT 14
Q4 · 2:44PIT Field goal
(2:44) 9-C.Boswell 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.
Score after this play: CIN 19 — PIT 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Steelers
Offensive plays	70	58
Total yards	315 (edge)	193
Yards per play	4.5 (edge)	3.3
Expected points added / play	-0.03 (edge)	-0.17
Success rate	49% (edge)	34%
Dropback rate	71%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03 (edge)	-0.12
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03 (edge)	-0.26
Third downs	5/13 (edge)	4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	0	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	4	4
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.17.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

37/46, 277 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-1.4 expected points added · +8.2% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Russell WilsonQB

17/31, 148 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-5.4 expected points added · -9.4% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Khalil HerbertRB

20 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

12 att, 36 yds, 1 TD

-1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

10/14 for 96 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 2.3 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

Pat FreiermuthTE

8/11 for 85 yds, 1 TD

38% of team targets · 3.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 27	11	73	5:11	Touchdown +7
2	PIT	PIT 40	5	-6	2:02	Punt
3	CIN	CIN 33	11	37	6:23	Field goal +3
4	PIT	PIT 27	15	63	6:30	Touchdown +7
5	CIN	CIN 44	7	14	3:21	Turnover on downs
6	PIT	PIT 38	4	7	1:01	Punt
7	CIN	CIN 16	4	8	2:46	Punt
8	CIN	PIT 33	4	12	1:36	Interception
9	PIT	PIT 17	6	20	0:22	Turnover on downs
10	CIN	PIT 37	7	28	0:32	Field goal +3
11	PIT	PIT 30	2	-9	0:16	End of half
12	PIT	PIT 30	5	2	1:36	Punt
13	CIN	CIN 36	11	47	6:28	Field goal +3
14	PIT	PIT 30	7	14	2:23	Punt
15	CIN	CIN 13	15	82	8:31	Field goal +3
16	PIT	PIT 35	11	65	2:55	Touchdown +7
17	CIN	CIN 27	7	18	2:13	Punt
18	PIT	PIT 11	4	9	0:40	Punt
19	PIT	CIN 38	6	12	2:35	Field goal +3
20	CIN	CIN 44	5	-4	0:48	Punt
21	PIT	PIT 24	7	16	1:40	Turnover on downs
22	CIN	PIT 40	1	0	0:11	End of game

8 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 82 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	37/46	277	1	1	4	-1.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Khalil Herbert	20	69	3.5	0	-0.6
Joe Burrow	1	-1	-1.0	0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ja'Marr Chase	10	14	96	1	30%	2.3
Mike Gesicki	8	10	68	0	22%	0.7
Tee Higgins	4	5	53	0	11%	3.4
Khalil Herbert	7	8	14	0	17%	-3.2
Drew Sample	4	4	14	0	9%	0.1
Andrei Iosivas	2	3	12	0	7%	-0.4
Tanner Hudson	1	1	11	0	2%	1.7
Cam Grandy	1	1	9	0	2%	0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Akeem Davis-Gaither	8	4	0.0	0
Josh Newton	6	1	0.0	1
Trey Hendrickson	3	2	3.5	1
Germaine Pratt	2	3	0.0	0
B.J. Hill	1	3	0.0	0
Mike Hilton	3	1	0.0	1
Shaka Heyward	2	1	0.0	0
McKinnley Jackson	1	2	0.0	0
Vonn Bell	2	1	0.0	0
Ja'Marr Chase	1	0	0.0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	17/31	148	1	0	4	-5.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Najee Harris	12	36	3.0	1	-1.9
Jaylen Warren	6	21	3.5	0	-2.9
Russell Wilson	4	16	4.0	0	0.6
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	1	1.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Pat Freiermuth	8	11	85	1	38%	3.9
Mike Williams	1	1	25	0	3%	3.0
Najee Harris	4	5	20	0	17%	0.4
Van Jefferson	3	4	18	0	14%	-0.9
Jaylen Warren	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4
George Pickens	1	6	0	0	21%	-4.8
Calvin Austin	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Cory Trice	7	4	0.0	0
Payton Wilson	8	2	0.0	0
DeShon Elliott	7	1	0.0	0
Alex Highsmith	4	3	0.0	0
Cameron Sutton	3	3	0.0	0
Joey Porter	6	0	0.0	1
Patrick Queen	3	2	1.0	1
Keeanu Benton	3	2	1.0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	2	1	0.0	0
Montravius Adams	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -2.5
Closing total: 48.5
CIN moneyline: -148
PIT moneyline: +124

Bengals closed -2.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 36 — under by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 19°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: CIN 7 days · PIT 10 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Mike Tomlin

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.