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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:35 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 18 · Sat, Jan 4, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 18
It turned at Q1 12:16, 4th and 4 — 7.4 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Baltimore Ravens 35–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:16, Ravens +7.4% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.3 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:16 · 4th and 4
Unnamed on the sheet
Ravens
(12:16) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.
7.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.16 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.45 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.17 expected points per carry, against Browns at -0.38 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 26% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Browns at 4 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 38 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
(12:16) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Nate Wiggins's 26-yard touchdown with 8:38 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Nate Wiggins26-yd defense TD26-yard touchdownthe defense scored itLead never changed again+70–77 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Brownscategory by categoryRavens
Ravens ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 54 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Ravens’s 66 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Browns 3, Ravens 5.
Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.45.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BAL's sack or hit rate turned over: 26.3% in week 17 against 8.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
CLE's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 100.0% in week 17 against 40.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.5 points. · −0.8σ from their own normal
CLE's pass rate over expected turned over: −7.0 pts in week 17 against +2.7 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.5 points. · +0.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 13 pts
Over Expected room →Browns2.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · +2.4 vs their 0.3 pts, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 54 snaps
Ravens-2.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their -7.7 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.78× that swing) · 66 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 89%
Tendencies room →Browns62.5%right on their number · −1.2 vs their 63.7%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 40 early downs
Ravens51.0%right on their number · +3.9 vs their 47.1%, and they swing ±13.2 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 55%
Tendencies room →Browns21.6%right on their number · −0.9 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Ravens24.3%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 25.4%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30% to 124%
Fourth Down room →Browns40.0%inside their normal wobble · −19.1 vs their 59.1%, and they swing ±24.5 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Ravens50.0%right on their number · +10.0 vs their 40.0%, and they swing ±27.1 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 71%
Tendencies room →Browns48.6%leaned — sent pressure · +17.6 vs their 31.0%, and they swing ±15.6 week to week (+1.13× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Ravens40.5%leaned — sent pressure · +17.8 vs their 22.7%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+1.54× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 40%
Tendencies room →Browns13.5%inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 18.6%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Ravens8.1%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.5 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−1.61× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
BAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 8.1%, 8.5 points below their season mean of 16.7% and 1.6 times their own 5.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · BAL
16/32, 217 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
5.2 expected points added · -8.0% completion over expected
Passing · CLE
16/31, 170 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-16.8 expected points added · -13.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Derrick Henry banked 9.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick HenryRB · Committee Back | 30.1 | +9.1 | 70% | 66% | 10% | 3% | 20 car, 138 yd, 2 TD · 2/3, 23 yd |
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 23.0 | +0.6 | 96% | — | 0% | — | 16/32, 217 yd, 2 TD · 9 car, 63 yd |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.6 | +3.7 | 71% | 87% | 27% | 34% | 5/8, 76 yd, 1 TD |
| Jordan AkinsTE · Featured Receiver | 18.0 | +6.2 | 69% | 76% | 24% | 26% | 6/8, 60 yd, 1 TD |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Alpha Receiver | 15.4 | +0.4 | 79% | 79% | 27% | 45% | 1 car, 0 yd · 4/8, 54 yd, 1 TD |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.3 | −7.9 | 95% | 100% | 39% | 40% | 6/13, 63 yd |
| Bailey ZappeQB · Starter QB | 7.0 | −4.4 | 90% | — | 0% | — | 16/31, 170 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 2 car, 2 yd |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.8 | −1.1 | 61% | 66% | 17% | 15% | 3/5, 38 yd |
| Elijah MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.6 | −0.1 | 95% | 97% | 15% | 19% | 3/5, 36 yd |
| Jacob KibodiRB | 4.9 | −1.7 | 29% | 30% | 9% | 4% | 5 car, 24 yd · 1/3, 15 yd |
| D'Onta ForemanRB · Committee Back | 4.5 | −2.1 | 66% | 68% | 3% | 1% | 10 car, 27 yd · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Zay FlowersWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −0.8 | 20% | 21% | 7% | 1% | 1 car, 9 yd · 1/2, 12 yd |
| Patrick RicardRB | 2.4 | +0.8 | 46% | 37% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 14 yd |
| Blake WhiteheartTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −0.2 | 36% | 27% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 1 yd |
| Keaton MitchellRB | 1.0 | −0.9 | 21% | 16% | 0% | — | 4 car, 10 yd |
| Dorian Thompson-RobinsonQB | 0.8 | −1.1 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tylan WallaceWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 73% | 71% | 3% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Steven SimsWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Rasheen AliRB | 0.0 | −2.8 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jamari ThrashWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.9 | 54% | 57% | 3% | 11% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| James ProcheWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kaden DavisWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 25% | 19% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Brenden BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −0.9 | 20% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:38) (Shotgun) 2-B.Zappe pass short right intended for 8-E.Moore INTERCEPTED by 2-N.Wiggins at CLE 26. 2-N.Wiggins for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 8:38 · Browns · 2nd & 7 at CLE 23 · gained nothing · -7.06 EP · −17.7% win probability
159 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 170 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 165. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 72 yards from the CLE 28 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Browns0
Ravens6Browns0Ravens7Browns0Ravens13Browns0Ravens14Browns3Ravens14Browns3Ravens20Browns3Ravens21Browns9Ravens21Browns10Ravens21Browns10Ravens27Browns10Ravens28Browns10Ravens34Browns10Ravens35Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Browns at Ravens, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Zappe | 16/31 | 170 | 1 | 2 | 1 | −16.8 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 2/3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −0.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 | −4.6 |
| Jacob Kibodi | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 6 | 13 | 63 | 0 | 39% | −7.1 |
| Jordan Akins | 6 | 8 | 60 | 1 | 24% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Kamara | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Thomas | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohamoud Diabate |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 16/32 | 217 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_18_CLE_BAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -19.5 and covered, winning by 25.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 45 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
Wind at 16.3 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Bailey Zappe | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| +4.3 |
| Elijah Moore | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 15% | −4.9 |
| Jacob Kibodi | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 9% | −4.4 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Blake Whiteheart | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Jamari Thrash | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Brenden Bates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Winston Reid | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Ford | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grant Delpit | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Martin Emerson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah McGuire | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hickman | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nathaniel Watson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 20 | 138 | 6.9 | 2 | +4.2 |
| Lamar Jackson | 9 | 63 | 7.0 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashod Bateman | 5 | 8 | 76 | 1 | 27% | +5.5 |
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 8 | 54 | 1 | 27% | +1.3 |
| Isaiah Likely | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 17% | +2.9 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 10% | −1.8 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3% | +1.7 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 7% | −1.3 |
| Tylan Wallace | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| Rasheen Ali | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roquan Smith | 2 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ar'Darius Washington | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Odafe Oweh | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malik Harrison | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Stephens | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Travis Jones | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Hamilton | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Van Noy | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
