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2024 Week 18 · Sat, Jan 4, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
BrownsCleveland10
BY 25final margin
RavensBaltimore35
Cleveland Browns 10 at Baltimore Ravens 35. Final.
Ravens -19.5 ✓O 42.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 18
Baltimore Ravens 35, Browns 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 12:16, 4th and 4 — 7.4 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:16 · 4th and 4
Unnamed on the sheet
Ravens
(12:16) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.
7.4
29°F · 16.3 mph
Ravens closed -19.5 and covered, winning by 25.
Baltimore Ravens 35–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:16, Ravens +7.4% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.3 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jordan AkinsBrownsQ1 15:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 2-B.Zappe pass short middle to 88-J.Akins to BAL 49 for 21 yards (21-B.Stephens).
5.1pts
Nate WigginsRavensQ1 8:38(8:38) (Shotgun) 2-B.Zappe pass short right intended for 8-E.Moore INTERCEPTED by 2-N.Wiggins at CLE 26. 2-N.Wiggins for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.0pts
What separated them
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.16 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.45 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.17 expected points per carry, against Browns at -0.38 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 26% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Browns at 4 chunk plays.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 38 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Browns161 of 170 plays carry both curves
(12:16) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.
Swing +7.4 for RavensExpected points +1.04 for RavensThe model had Browns 30 points higher than the market did.play 7
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:16CLE +7% win prob(12:16) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.
1st · 8:38CLE +7% win prob(8:38) (Shotgun) 2-B.Zappe pass short right intended for 8-E.Moore INTERCEPTED by 2-N.Wiggins at CLE 26. 2-N.Wiggins for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 15:00BAL +5% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 2-B.Zappe pass short middle to 88-J.Akins to BAL 49 for 21 yards (21-B.Stephens).
1st · 9:27CLE +5% win prob(9:27) 11-J.Stout punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.
1st · 12:49CLE +2% win prob(12:49) (Shotgun) 27-D.Foreman right guard to BAL 43 for no gain (0-R.Smith, 98-T.Jones).
1st · 2:45CLE +1% win prob(2:45) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 22-D.Henry [9-G.Delpit].
2nd · 3:03
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nate Wiggins's 26-yard touchdown with 8:38 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Ravens ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.45Browns: −0.45 expected points added per play
+0.16Ravens: +0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.49Browns: −0.49 expected points added per play
+0.15Ravens: +0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.38Browns: −0.38 expected points added per play
+0.17Ravens: +0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 54 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Ravens’s 66 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Browns 3, Ravens 5.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.45.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BAL's sack or hit rate turned over: 26.3% in week 17 against 8.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points.
CLE's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 100.0% in week 17 against 40.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.5 points.
CLE's pass rate over expected turned over: −7.0 pts in week 17 against +2.7 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 13 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 18.6%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Ravens8.1%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.5 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−1.61× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteBAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 8.1%, 8.5 points below their season mean of 16.7% and 1.6 times their own 5.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Zappe pass−18% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(8:38) (Shotgun) 2-B.Zappe pass short right intended for 8-E.Moore INTERCEPTED by 2-N.Wiggins at CLE 26. 2-N.Wiggins for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 8:38 · Browns · 2nd & 7 at CLE 23 · gained nothing · -7.06 EP · −17.7% win probability
159 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 165. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 72 yards from the CLE 28 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
39%
Yards
667
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.4266%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR28+0.2046%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15+0.5060%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR15-0.4027%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.1070%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR6+0.4767%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Browns1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Browns0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Ravens 43
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Browns 47
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Browns0Ravens6
Touchdown2 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 23
Browns0Ravens7
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 39
The period ended7 plays, from the Browns 39 to the Browns 9
The period ended6 plays, from the Browns 9 to the Browns 20
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Browns 16 to the Browns 21
Browns0Ravens13
Browns0Ravens14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Browns 47 to the Browns 12
Browns3Ravens14
Field goal12 plays, from the Browns 40 to the Ravens 5
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Browns 48 to the Browns 23
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Browns 26
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Ravens 10 to the Browns 46
3rd quarter42 plays
Browns3Ravens20
Browns3Ravens21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Browns 5
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 38
Punt10 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Browns 38
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 10 to the Browns 29
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 41 to the Ravens 43
The period ended7 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Browns 44
4th quarter42 plays
Browns9Ravens21
Browns10Ravens21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Browns 38 to the Ravens 16
Browns10Ravens27
Browns10Ravens28
Touchdown11 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Browns 2
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Ravens 49
Browns10Ravens34
Browns10Ravens35
Touchdown4 plays, from the Ravens 49 to the Browns 43
Intercepted4 plays, from the Browns 48 to the Ravens 18
The period ended5 plays, from the Ravens 22 to the Ravens 30
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
