2024 Week 18 · Sat, Jan 4, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium

Cleveland Browns

Baltimore RavensWinner

BAL -19.5 ✓O 42.5 ✓31°F · 16 mphRavens closed -19.5 and covered, winning by 25.

Baltimore Ravens 35–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:16, CLE +7% win probability on one snap. Played in 16 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 12:16CLE 0 — BAL 0CLE ball · 4th & 4BAL 90%

(12:16) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 12:16CLE +7% win prob(12:16) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.
Q1 · 8:38CLE +7% win prob(8:38) (Shotgun) 2-B.Zappe pass short right intended for 8-E.Moore INTERCEPTED by 2-N.Wiggins at CLE 26. 2-N.Wiggins for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 15:00BAL +5% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 2-B.Zappe pass short middle to 88-J.Akins to BAL 49 for 21 yards (21-B.Stephens).
Q1 · 9:27CLE +5% win prob(9:27) 11-J.Stout punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:38BAL Touchdown
(8:38) (Shotgun) 2-B.Zappe pass short right intended for 8-E.Moore INTERCEPTED by 2-N.Wiggins at CLE 26. 2-N.Wiggins for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 0 — BAL 7
Q2 · 11:08BAL Touchdown
(11:08) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 89-M.Andrews for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 0 — BAL 14
Q2 · 6:36CLE Field goal
(6:36) 7-D.Hopkins 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: CLE 3 — BAL 14
Q3 · 10:47BAL Touchdown
(10:47) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 7-R.Bateman for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 3 — BAL 21
Q4 · 11:39CLE Touchdown
(11:39) (Shotgun) 2-B.Zappe pass short left to 88-J.Akins for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 10 — BAL 21
Q4 · 6:48BAL Touchdown
(6:48) 66-B.Cleveland reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 10 — BAL 28
Q4 · 3:13BAL Touchdown
(3:13) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left end for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 10 — BAL 35

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Ravens
Offensive plays	54	66
Total yards	231	437 (edge)
Yards per play	4.3	6.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.45	0.16 (edge)
Success rate	26%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	69%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.49	0.15 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.38	0.17 (edge)
Third downs	4/12	7/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	10	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.45.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

16/32, 217 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

5.2 expected points added · -8.0% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Bailey ZappeQB

16/31, 170 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-16.8 expected points added · -13.6% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Derrick HenryRB

20 att, 138 yds, 2 TD

4.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

9 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Rashod BatemanWR

5/8 for 76 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Jerry JeudyWR

6/13 for 63 yds, 0 TD

39% of team targets · -7.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 30	6	27	2:53	Punt
2	BAL	BAL 20	7	33	2:48	Punt
3	CLE	CLE 20	2	3	0:47	Defensive touchdown
4	CLE	CLE 30	5	9	2:19	Turnover on downs
5	BAL	CLE 39	6	30	3:32	Turnover on downs
6	CLE	CLE 9	7	12	3:20	Punt
7	BAL	CLE 47	8	47	3:18	Touchdown +7
8	CLE	CLE 40	10	35	4:30	Field goal +3
9	BAL	CLE 48	8	30	3:38	Turnover on downs
10	CLE	CLE 23	4	8	1:08	Punt
11	BAL	BAL 10	9	44	1:47	Turnover on downs
12	BAL	BAL 30	9	80	4:18	Touchdown +7
13	CLE	CLE 30	5	8	0:47	Punt
14	BAL	BAL 25	9	37	3:13	Punt
15	CLE	CLE 10	5	14	2:39	Punt
16	BAL	BAL 41	4	2	0:54	Punt
17	CLE	CLE 28	13	60	6:36	Touchdown +7
18	BAL	BAL 30	10	75	4:49	Touchdown +7
19	CLE	CLE 30	6	21	2:09	Turnover on downs
20	BAL	BAL 49	4	51	1:31	Touchdown +7
21	CLE	CLE 48	4	34	0:48	Interception
22	BAL	BAL 22	4	8	1:52	Punt
23	CLE	CLE 20	1	0	0:24	End of game

6 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 80 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bailey Zappe	16/31	170	1	2	1	-16.8
Dorian Thompson-Robinson	2/3	13	0	0	1	-0.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
D'Onta Foreman	10	27	2.7	-4.6
Jacob Kibodi	5	24	4.8	-0.7
Dorian Thompson-Robinson	2	3	1.5	-1.1
Bailey Zappe	2	2	1.0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jerry Jeudy	6	13	63	0	39%	-7.1
Jordan Akins	6	8	60	1	24%	4.3
Elijah Moore	3	5	36	0	15%	-4.9
Jacob Kibodi	1	3	15	0	9%	-4.4
D'Onta Foreman	1	1	8	0	3%	-0.3
Blake Whiteheart	1	1	1	0	3%	-0.5
Jamari Thrash	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Brenden Bates	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Sam Kamara	4	1	0
Cameron Thomas	3	2	0
Mohamoud Diabate	2	3	0
Winston Reid	5	0	0
Mike Ford	5	0	0
Grant Delpit	4	0	0
Martin Emerson	3	1	0
Isaiah McGuire	2	1	0
Ronnie Hickman	1	2	0
Nathaniel Watson	2	1	1

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	16/32	217	2	0	0	5.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	20	138	6.9	2	4.2
Lamar Jackson	9	63	7.0	0	2.2
Keaton Mitchell	4	10	2.5	0	-1.0
Zay Flowers	1	9	9.0	0	0.9
Mark Andrews	1	0	0.0	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Rashod Bateman	5	8	76	1	27%	5.5
Mark Andrews	4	8	54	1	27%	1.3
Isaiah Likely	3	5	38	0	17%	2.9
Derrick Henry	2	3	23	0	10%	-1.8
Patrick Ricard	1	1	14	0	3%	1.7
Zay Flowers	1	2	12	0	7%	-1.3
Tylan Wallace	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7
Rasheen Ali	0	2	0	0	7%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Roquan Smith	2	7	0.0	0
Nnamdi Madubuike	1	3	0.0	0
Ar'Darius Washington	2	2	0.0	1
Odafe Oweh	3	1	1.0	0
Marlon Humphrey	3	1	0.0	1
Malik Harrison	1	2	0.0	0
Brandon Stephens	3	0	0.0	1
Travis Jones	1	2	0.0	0
Kyle Hamilton	3	0	0.0	0
Kyle Van Noy	2	1	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -19.5
Closing total: 42.5
CLE moneyline: +1200
BAL moneyline: -2400

Ravens closed -19.5 and covered, winning by 25.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 45 — over by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 31°F, wind 16 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: CLE 6 days · BAL 10 days
Coaches: Kevin Stefanski vs John Harbaugh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 16 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.