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2024 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 5, 2025 · Nissan Stadium

Houston TexansWinner

23

Tennessee Titans

14

TEN -2.5 upsetO 36.5 ✓

Houston Texans 23–14. Biggest swing: Q4 14:00, HOU +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3TEN ↑HOU ↓
Q4 · 14:00HOU 22 — TEN 6TEN ball · 2nd & 5HOU 79%

(14:00) 8-W.Levis FUMBLES (Aborted) at TEN 42, RECOVERED by HOU-95-D.Barnett at TEN 36. 95-D.Barnett for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on HOU, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 14:00HOU +17% win prob(14:00) 8-W.Levis FUMBLES (Aborted) at TEN 42, RECOVERED by HOU-95-D.Barnett at TEN 36. 95-D.Barnett for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on HOU, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
  2. Q2 · 14:07TEN +16% win prob(14:07) 31-D.Pierce right guard for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 15:00TEN +10% win prob(15:00) 8-W.Levis pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley ran ob at TEN 40 for 39 yards. Houston challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
  4. Q2 · 0:52TEN +9% win prob(:52) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete deep right to 19-X.Hutchinson. PENALTY on TEN-21-R.McCreary, Defensive Pass Interference, 35 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:47HOU Touchdown

    (7:47) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 12-N.Collins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 7 — TEN 0
  2. Q2 · 14:07HOU Touchdown

    (14:07) 31-D.Pierce right guard for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: HOU 13 — TEN 0
  3. Q2 · 1:45TEN Field goal

    (1:45) 7-M.Wright 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

    Score after this play: HOU 13 — TEN 3
  4. Q2 · 0:03HOU Field goal

    (:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: HOU 16 — TEN 3
  5. Q3 · 6:51TEN Field goal

    (6:51) 7-M.Wright 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

    Score after this play: HOU 16 — TEN 6
  6. Q4 · 14:00HOU Touchdown

    (14:00) 8-W.Levis FUMBLES (Aborted) at TEN 42, RECOVERED by HOU-95-D.Barnett at TEN 36. 95-D.Barnett for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on HOU, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 23 — TEN 6
  7. Q4 · 2:49TEN Touchdown

    (2:49) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep middle to 18-T.Martin for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: HOU 23 — TEN 14

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTexansTitans
Offensive plays5761
Total yards375 (edge)316
Yards per play6.6 (edge)5.2
Expected points added / play0.06 (edge)-0.18
Success rate49% (edge)36%
Dropback rate53%51%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.090.22 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.23 (edge)-0.60
Third downs5/12 (edge)5/15
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)4
First downs gained on snaps17 (edge)15
Sacks taken1 (edge)2
Turnovers11

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TEN

Will LevisQB

9/17, 175 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

4.7 expected points added · -2.6% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Davis MillsQB

12/22, 128 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-3.8 expected points added · -13.1% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Dameon PierceRB

19 att, 176 yds, 1 TD

6.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Tony PollardRB

22 att, 62 yds, 0 TD

-5.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TEN

Calvin RidleyWR

3/5 for 76 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 3.7 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR

4/7 for 50 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · -0.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1HOUHOU 3113737:17Touchdown +7
2TENTEN 33522:10Punt
3HOUHOU 177293:53Punt
4TENTEN 256172:33Punt
5HOUHOU 82920:12Touchdown +6
6TENHOU 44511:40Punt
7HOUHOU 26451:35Punt
8TENTEN 8461:37Punt
9HOUHOU 264482:27Fumble
10TENTEN 3011634:55Field goal +3
11HOUHOU 408161:41Field goal +3
12TENTEN 2714538:13Field goal +3
13HOUHOU 3113585:30Turnover on downs
14TENTEN 15442:27Defensive touchdown
15TENTEN 308302:27Turnover on downs
16HOUHOU 40472:13Punt
17TENTEN 20440:57Punt
18HOUHOU 316172:32Punt
19TENTEN 610963:00Touchdown +8
20HOUTEN 448302:41End of game

6 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 96 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Davis Mills12/22128001-3.8
C.J. Stroud6/6501005.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Dameon Pierce191769.316.6
Joe Mixon5234.601.2
Davis Mills3113.70-1.1
Dare Ogunbowale2-3-1.50-3.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Robert Woods2339011%-3.2
Nico Collins5538118%4.2
Dalton Schultz3329011%1.9
Dare Ogunbowale2326011%1.1
John Metchie2424014%0.0
Diontae Johnson2412014%-0.5
Joe Mixon11504%0.2
Xavier Hutchinson12507%-3.9
Dameon Pierce02007%-1.3
Cade Stover01004%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Devin White600.000
M.J. Stewart510.000
Tommy Togiai410.000
Myles Bryant220.000
Neville Hewitt310.000
Del'Shawn Phillips210.000
Henry To'oTo'o210.000
Dylan Horton210.001
Eric Murray300.000
Kurt Hinish110.000

Tennessee Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Will Levis9/171751014.7
Mason Rudolph7/9700010.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tony Pollard22622.80-5.4
Julius Chestnut2115.501.0
Will Levis482.00-12.2
Mason Rudolph155.002.2
Joshua Kelley122.00-0.4
Calvin Ridley2-3-1.50-1.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Calvin Ridley3576019%3.7
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine4750027%-0.4
Tay Martin124918%5.4
Josh Whyle5729027%0.2
Nick Vannett222608%1.9
Bryce Oliver1315012%-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Luke Gifford350.000
Daryl Worley340.000
James Williams330.000
Chidobe Awuzie510.000
Mike Brown310.000
T'Vondre Sweat130.000
Jeffery Simmons130.000
Cedric Gray130.000
James Lynch120.000
Roger McCreary300.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
TEN -2.5
Closing total
36.5
HOU moneyline
+120
TEN moneyline
-142

Titans closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 36.5; the game landed 37 — over by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
35°F, wind 10 mph
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
HOU 11 days · TEN 7 days
Coaches
DeMeco Ryans vs Brian Callahan

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.