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polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:09 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 5, 2025 · Nissan Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 18
It turned at Q4 14:00, 2nd and 5 — 16.6 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 14:00 · 2nd and 5
Unnamed on the sheet
Texans
(14:00) 8-W.Levis FUMBLES (Aborted) at TEN 42, RECOVERED by HOU-95-D.Barnett at TEN 36. 95-D.Barnett for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on HOU, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Houston Texans 23–14. Biggest swing: Q4 14:00, Texans +16.6% win probability on one snap.
16.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Texans won this one — +0.23 expected points per carry, against Titans at -0.60 expected points per carry.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Texans won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Titans at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Texans won this one — +0.06 expected points per snap, against Titans at -0.18 expected points per snap.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Texans won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Titans at 4 chunk plays.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
(14:00) 8-W.Levis FUMBLES (Aborted) at TEN 42, RECOVERED by HOU-95-D.Barnett at TEN 36. 95-D.Barnett for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on HOU, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Nico Collins's 2-yard touchdown catch with 7:47 left in the 1st put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Texanscategory by categoryTitans
Texans ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.60 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 57 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Titans’s 61 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Texans 5, Titans 3.
Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TEN's pass rate over expected, −22.3 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 4.0 points clear of the next team along.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
TEN's early-down pass rate, 38.1%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 3.2 points clear of the next team along.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Texans2.3 ptsright on their number · +1.0 vs their 1.2 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.16× that swing) · 57 snaps
Titans-22.3 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −15.6 vs their -6.7 pts, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.87× that swing) · 60 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 87%
Tendencies room →Texans46.5%inside their normal wobble · −9.5 vs their 56.1%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 43 early downs
Titans38.1%leaned — ran early · −16.7 vs their 54.8%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−1.31× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 44%
Tendencies room →Texans33.3%leaned — faked the run · +10.0 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+1.34× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Titans19.4%right on their number · −2.2 vs their 21.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24% to 90%
Fourth Down room →Texans33.3%right on their number · 0.0 vs their 33.3%, and they swing ±22.4 week to week (0.00× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
Titans60.0%leaned — went for it · +22.0 vs their 38.0%, and they swing ±19.8 week to week (+1.11× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 55%
Tendencies room →Texans22.6%right on their number · −2.3 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Titans36.7%inside their normal wobble · +7.8 vs their 28.9%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (+0.78× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 32%
Tendencies room →Texans16.1%right on their number · +0.2 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Titans6.7%leaned — stayed blocked · −5.4 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−1.10× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
TEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -22.3 pts, 15.6 points below their season mean of -6.7 pts and 1.9 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · TEN
9/17, 175 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
4.7 expected points added · -2.6% completion over expected
Passing · HOU
12/22, 128 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-3.8 expected points added · -13.1% completion over expected
Receiving · TEN
4/7 for 50 yds, 0 TD
27% of team targets · -0.4 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Dameon Pierce banked 12.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon PierceRB · Bell Cow Back | 23.6 | +12.1 | 62% | 50% | 7% | 0% | 19 car, 176 yd, 1 TD · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Nico CollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.8 | +5.5 | 18% | 27% | 18% | 12% | 5/5, 38 yd, 1 TD |
| Tay MartinWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.9 | +9.0 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Will LevisQB · Starter QB | 11.8 | +5.4 | 58% | — | 0% | — | 9/17, 175 yd, 1 TD · 4 car, 8 yd |
| Calvin RidleyWR · Featured Receiver | 10.3 | +1.7 | 53% | 55% | 19% | 34% | 2 car, -3 yd · 3/5, 76 yd |
| Josh WhyleTE · Alpha Receiver | 9.9 | +0.3 | 60% | 71% | 27% | 11% | 5/7, 29 yd |
| Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.0 | −0.2 | 97% | 90% | 27% | 23% | 4/7, 50 yd |
| Davis MillsQB · Starter QB | 6.2 | −7.9 | 82% | — | 0% | — | 12/22, 128 yd · 3 car, 11 yd |
| Tony PollardRB · Bell Cow Back | 6.2 | −5.6 | 73% | 58% | 0% | — | 22 car, 62 yd |
| C.J. StroudQB | 6.0 | +2.4 | 18% | — | 0% | — | 6/6, 50 yd, 1 TD |
| Dalton SchultzTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.9 | +0.9 | 53% | 67% | 11% | 14% | 3/3, 29 yd |
| Nick VannettTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | +2.4 | 37% | 10% | 8% | 0% | 2/2, 26 yd |
| John MetchieWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | −1.8 | 60% | 70% | 14% | 18% | 2/4, 24 yd |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB · Receiving Back | 4.3 | −0.9 | 20% | 27% | 11% | 6% | 2 car, -3 yd · 2/3, 26 yd |
| Robert WoodsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | −3.5 | 62% | 53% | 11% | 19% | 2/3, 39 yd |
| Joe MixonRB | 3.8 | −4.0 | 18% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 5 car, 23 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Mason RudolphQB | 3.3 | +0.8 | 42% | — | 0% | — | 7/9, 70 yd · 1 car, 5 yd |
| Diontae JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −4.3 | 37% | 50% | 14% | 21% | 2/4, 12 yd |
| Bryce OliverWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | −0.8 | 32% | 35% | 12% | 11% | 1/3, 15 yd |
| Xavier HutchinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −4.0 | 80% | 63% | 7% | 3% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Julius ChestnutRB | 1.1 | +0.3 | 24% | 32% | 0% | — | 2 car, 11 yd |
| Joshua KelleyRB | 0.2 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cade StoverTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 60% | 43% | 4% | 9% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| David Martin-RobinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 50% | 26% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Mason KinseyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 60% | 74% | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:07) 31-D.Pierce right guard for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 14:07 · Texans · 1st & 10 at HOU 8 · gained 92 · +7.21 EP · +17.8% win probability
151 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 94 yards from the TEN 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Texans6
Titans0Texans7Titans0How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Texans13Titans0Texans13Titans3Texans16Titans3Texans16Titans6How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Texans22Titans6Texans23Titans6Texans23Titans12Texans23Titans14Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Texans at Titans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 12/22 | 128 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −3.8 |
| C.J. Stroud | 6/6 | 50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce | 19 | 176 | 9.3 | 1 | +6.6 |
| Joe Mixon | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Davis Mills |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 2 | 3 | 39 | 0 | 11% | −3.2 |
| Nico Collins | 5 | 5 | 38 | 1 | 18% | +4.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin White | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| M.J. Stewart | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tommy Togiai | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Bryant |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 9/17 | 175 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +4.7 |
| Mason Rudolph | 7/9 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +0.5 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_18_HOU_TEN
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Titans closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 36.5; the game landed 37 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3 |
| 11 |
| 3.7 |
| 0 |
| −1.1 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 | −3.1 |
| Dalton Schultz | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 11% | +1.9 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 11% | +1.1 |
| John Metchie | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 14% | +0.0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 14% | −0.5 |
| Joe Mixon | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | +0.2 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7% | −3.9 |
| Dameon Pierce | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −1.3 |
| Cade Stover | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Neville Hewitt | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Del'Shawn Phillips | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Henry To'oTo'o | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Horton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Eric Murray | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kurt Hinish | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 22 | 62 | 2.8 | 0 | −5.4 |
| Julius Chestnut | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Will Levis | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 | −12.2 |
| Mason Rudolph | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Joshua Kelley | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Calvin Ridley | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 3 | 5 | 76 | 0 | 19% | +3.7 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 4 | 7 | 50 | 0 | 27% | −0.4 |
| Tay Martin | 1 | 2 | 49 | 1 | 8% | +5.4 |
| Josh Whyle | 5 | 7 | 29 | 0 | 27% | +0.2 |
| Nick Vannett | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 8% | +1.9 |
| Bryce Oliver | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 12% | −2.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Gifford | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daryl Worley | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Williams | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chidobe Awuzie | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Brown | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T'Vondre Sweat | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffery Simmons | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cedric Gray | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Lynch | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roger McCreary | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
