2024 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 5, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

IND -3.5 no coverO 45.5 ✓DomeColts closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Indianapolis Colts 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 5:27, JAX +40% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 5:27JAX 23 — IND 26IND ball · 4th & 5IND 91%

(5:27) 7-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 5:27JAX +40% win prob(5:27) 7-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
OT · 9:49IND +23% win prob(9:49) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce pushed ob at IND 47 for 17 yards (3-T.Campbell).
OT · 4:02JAX +20% win prob(4:02) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at JAX 18 for -16 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
OT · 3:20JAX +17% win prob(3:20) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 7-B.Thomas to JAX 38 for 20 yards (33-S.Womack).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 13:56IND Touchdown
(13:56) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 0 — IND 7
Q1 · 8:16JAX Touchdown
(8:16) 73-B.Hance reported in as eligible. 4-T.Bigsby right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 7 — IND 7
Q2 · 14:22JAX Field goal
(14:22) 39-C.Little 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: JAX 10 — IND 7
Q2 · 9:36IND Touchdown
(9:36) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 10 — IND 14
Q2 · 3:27IND Field goal
(3:27) 7-M.Gay 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: JAX 10 — IND 17
Q2 · 1:28JAX Field goal
(1:28) 39-C.Little 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: JAX 13 — IND 17
Q2 · 0:17IND Field goal
(:17) 7-M.Gay 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: JAX 13 — IND 20
Q4 · 7:57JAX Touchdown
(7:57) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 11-P.Washington to IND 1 for 8 yards (44-Z.Franklin). FUMBLES (44-Z.Franklin), and recovers at IND 1. 11-P.Washington for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 20 — IND 20
Q4 · 3:57IND Field goal
(3:57) 7-M.Gay 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: JAX 20 — IND 23
Q4 · 1:49JAX Field goal
(1:49) 39-C.Little 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: JAX 23 — IND 23
OT · 5:27IND Field goal
(5:27) 7-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: JAX 23 — IND 26

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jaguars	Colts
Offensive plays	66	77
Total yards	321	429 (edge)
Yards per play	4.9	5.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.03 (edge)	0.01
Success rate	42%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	55%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.10 (edge)	-0.09
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05	0.13 (edge)
Third downs	5/14 (edge)	5/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	19	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Joe FlaccoQB

23/40, 264 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-3.7 expected points added · -7.9% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Mac JonesQB

20/32, 225 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

2.7 expected points added · -2.7% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

34 att, 177 yds, 1 TD

4.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Tank BigsbyRB

14 att, 39 yds, 1 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Brian ThomasWR

7/11 for 103 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 2.9 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Josh DownsWR

10/13 for 94 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 30	5	70	1:10	Touchdown +7
2	JAX	JAX 30	12	65	5:38	Touchdown +7
3	IND	IND 30	6	17	2:01	Punt
4	JAX	JAX 9	4	9	1:52	Punt
5	IND	IND 27	5	21	2:02	Turnover on downs
6	JAX	IND 48	5	23	3:00	Field goal +3
7	IND	IND 30	10	70	4:45	Touchdown +7
8	JAX	JAX 30	5	-3	1:28	Punt
9	IND	IND 26	11	43	4:42	Field goal +3
10	JAX	JAX 30	10	61	1:57	Field goal +3
11	IND	IND 30	8	15	1:12	Field goal +3
12	JAX	JAX 30	2	0	0:13	End of half
13	JAX	JAX 30	8	17	3:08	Punt
14	IND	IND 7	4	7	2:11	Punt
15	JAX	JAX 38	5	12	1:43	Interception
16	IND	IND 11	11	56	5:16	Missed field goal
17	JAX	JAX 41	4	0	0:22	Punt
18	IND	IND 19	7	16	2:35	Punt
19	JAX	JAX 16	15	94	6:55	Touchdown +7
20	IND	IND 30	8	48	3:58	Field goal +3
21	JAX	JAX 30	8	35	2:08	Field goal +3
22	IND	IND 30	8	16	1:29	Punt
23	JAX	JAX 15	1	0	0:15	Turnover on downs
24	IND	IND 30	12	50	4:37	Field goal +3
25	JAX	JAX 30	5	8	2:12	Turnover on downs

11 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 94 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	20/32	225	1	1	2	2.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Tank Bigsby	14	39	2.8	1	-1.3
Travis Etienne	13	31	2.4	0	-3.8
D'Ernest Johnson	2	26	13.0	0	2.9
Mac Jones	5	17	3.4	0	1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brian Thomas	7	11	103	0	35%	2.9
Brenton Strange	4	4	60	0	13%	6.5
Travis Etienne	3	5	29	0	16%	0.7
Parker Washington	2	4	15	1	13%	0.1
Josh Reynolds	1	3	11	0	10%	-0.9
Luke Farrell	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.2
Tank Bigsby	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.3
D'Ernest Johnson	1	2	0	0	6%	-2.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Foyesade Oluokun	2	7	0.0	0
Darnell Savage	7	2	0.0	0
Andrew Wingard	4	5	0.0	1
Davon Hamilton	4	3	0.0	0
Tyson Campbell	4	2	0.0	1
Devin Lloyd	4	2	1.0	0
Travon Walker	2	3	1.0	0
Jeremiah Ledbetter	1	3	0.0	0
Montaric Brown	2	1	0.0	0
Jarrian Jones	2	1	1.0	1

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Flacco	23/40	264	1	0	3	-3.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	34	177	5.2	1	4.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Josh Downs	10	13	94	0	33%	3.5
Michael Pittman	6	10	72	0	26%	1.7
Alec Pierce	2	2	57	1	5%	5.5
Andrew Ogletree	1	1	21	0	3%	1.2
Kylen Granson	1	4	7	0	10%	-4.0
Trey Sermon	1	3	5	0	8%	-2.4
Tyler Goodson	1	2	5	0	5%	-0.4
Jonathan Taylor	1	2	3	0	5%	-0.8
Adonai Mitchell	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8
Mo Alie-Cox	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jaylon Jones	4	4	0.0	0	0
Zaire Franklin	3	5	1.0	0	1
Nick Cross	3	4	0.0	0	0
Kenny Moore	4	3	0.0	0	0
Grover Stewart	1	6	0.0	0	0
E.J. Speed	4	2	0.0	0	1
Julian Blackmon	4	0	0.0	1	1
Jaylon Carlies	4	0	0.0	0	0
Kwity Paye	2	0	1.0	0	1
Samuel Womack	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -3.5
Closing total: 45.5
JAX moneyline: +150
IND moneyline: -180

Colts closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 49 — over by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: JAX 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches: Doug Pederson vs Shane Steichen

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.