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2024 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 5, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Final
JaguarsJacksonville23
BY 3final margin
ColtsIndianapolis26
Jacksonville Jaguars 23 at Indianapolis Colts 26. Final.
Colts -3.5 no coverO 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 18
Indianapolis Colts 26, Jaguars 23 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 5:27, 4th and 5, on Matt Gay — 40.1 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 5:27 · 4th and 5
Matt Gay
Jaguars
(5:27) 7-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Dome
Colts closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Indianapolis Colts 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 5:27, Jaguars +40.1% win probability on one snap.
40.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Alec PierceColtsOT 9:49(9:49) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce pushed ob at IND 47 for 17 yards (3-T.Campbell).
22.9pts
Mac JonesColtsOT 4:02(4:02) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at JAX 18 for -16 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
20.2pts
What separated them
Red zone
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Colts at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Colts won this one — no giveaways, against Jaguars at 1 giveaway.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Colts won this one — +0.13 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.05 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Colts won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jaguars at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Jaguars188 of 197 plays carry both curves
(5:27) 7-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Swing −40.1 for ColtsExpected points +0.47 for ColtsModel and market agree here.play 190
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 5:27JAX +40% win prob(5:27) 7-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Overtime · 9:49IND +23% win prob(9:49) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce pushed ob at IND 47 for 17 yards (3-T.Campbell).
Overtime · 4:02JAX +20% win prob(4:02) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at JAX 18 for -16 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
Overtime · 3:20JAX +17% win prob(3:20) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 7-B.Thomas to JAX 38 for 20 yards (33-S.Womack).
4th · 3:57IND +13% win prob(3:57) 7-M.Gay 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
4th · 7:57IND +11% win prob(7:57) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 11-P.Washington to IND 1 for 8 yards (44-Z.Franklin). FUMBLES (44-Z.Franklin), and recovers at IND 1. 11-P.Washington for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Matt Gay's 38-yard field goal with 5:27 left in overtime put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st13:56Alec Pierce·40-yd TD catch40-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe Flacco+70–7
2nd3:27Matt Gay·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+310–17
2nd1:28Cam Little·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+313–17
2nd0:17Matt Gay·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+313–20
4th7:57Parker Washington·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jonesfrom Mac Jones+720–20
4th3:57Matt Gay·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+320–23
4th1:49Cam Little·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+323–23
Overtime5:27Matt Gay·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.RhodesLead never changed again+323–26
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jaguarscategory by categoryColts
Jaguars4–5Colts
321Total yards429
4.9Yards per play5.6
42%Success rate48%
36%Third-down rate33%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays6
19First downs23
2Sacks taken3
1Turnovers0
The read
Colts ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Jaguars: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.01Colts: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.10Jaguars: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.09Colts: −0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Jaguars: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.13Colts: +0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 66 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Colts’s 77 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 3, Colts 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 12 pts
right on their number · +1.6 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Colts13.9%
right on their number · +1.5 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteJAX's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -9.4 pts, 5.8 points below their season mean of -3.6 pts and 1.2 times their own 4.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
76Ezra ClevelandG · Every snap100%69 snaps
70Cole Van LanenT · Every snap100%69 snaps
77Anton HarrisonT · Every snap100%69 snaps
10Mac JonesQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
65Mitch MorseC · Every snap100%69 snaps
68Brandon ScherffG · Every snap100%69 snaps
7Brian Thomas Jr.WR · Full-time90%62 snaps
11Parker WashingtonWR · Full-time86%59 snaps
85Brenton StrangeTE · Heavy rotation72%50 snaps
87Josh ReynoldsWR · Heavy rotation58%40 snaps
89Luke FarrellTE · Rotational45%31 snaps
1Travis EtienneRB · Rotational43%30 snaps
4Tank BigsbyRB · Rotational36%25 snaps
2D'Ernest JohnsonRB · Situational19%13 snaps
15Tim JonesWR · Situational16%11 snaps
81Josiah DeguaraTE · Situational14%10 snaps
12Devin DuvernayWR · Situational9%6 snaps
73Blake HanceG · Situational9%6 snaps
31Keilan RobinsonRB · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Ronald DarbyCBJosh Hines-AllenDEEsezi OtomewoDETyler LacyDTVentrell MillerILBWalker LittleT
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
Matt Gay−40% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(5:27) 7-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
OT 5:27 · Colts · 4th & 5 at JAX 20 · gained nothing · +0.47 EP · −40.1% win probability
186 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 197 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 186 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 191. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 84 yards from the JAX 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
197 of 197 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
197
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
49%
Yards
748
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR62-0.0363%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.0764%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.2029%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.2431%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Jaguars0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
197 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
197 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Jaguars0Colts6
Jaguars0Colts7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Jaguars 40
Jaguars6Colts7
Jaguars7Colts7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Colts 1
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 47
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 9 to the Jaguars 18
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Colts 27 to the Colts 48
The period ended5 plays, from the Colts 48 to the Colts 36
2nd quarter52 plays
Jaguars10Colts7
Field goal2 plays, from the Colts 46 to the Colts 35
Jaguars10Colts13
Jaguars10Colts14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Jaguars 6
Punt5 plays
Jaguars10Colts17
Field goal11 plays, from the Colts 26 to the Jaguars 31
Jaguars13Colts17
Field goal12 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Colts 8
Jaguars13Colts20
Field goal9 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Jaguars 18
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Jaguars 47
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 7 to the Colts 14
Intercepted5 plays, from the Jaguars 38 to midfield
No good11 plays, from the Colts 11 to the Jaguars 33
Punt4 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Colts 19 to the Colts 32
4th quarter48 plays
Punt2 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Jaguars19Colts20
Jaguars20Colts20
Touchdown17 plays, from the Jaguars 16 to the Colts 4
Jaguars20Colts23
Field goal9 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Jaguars 22
Jaguars23Colts23
Field goal8 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Colts 35
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
The period ended10 plays, from the Colts 30 to midfield
The period ended2 plays
Overtime19 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Jaguars23Colts26
Field goal12 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Jaguars 18
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.4 seconds
The period ended6 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Jaguars 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
