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2024 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 5, 2025 · Empower Field at Mile High

Kansas City Chiefs

0

Denver BroncosWinner

38

DEN -10.5 ✓U 40.5 ✓28°F

Denver Broncos 38–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:04, DEN +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DEN ↑KC ↓
Q1 · 12:04KC 0 — DEN 6DEN ball · 1st & 10DEN 81%

(12:04) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 19-M.Mims for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 12:04DEN +8% win prob(12:04) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 19-M.Mims for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 10:28DEN +4% win prob(10:28) (Shotgun) 38-J.McLaughlin right tackle to DEN 18 for 3 yards (94-M.Herring).
  3. Q1 · 10:34DEN +3% win prob(10:34) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to DEN 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
  4. Q1 · 6:54DEN +2% win prob(6:54) (No Huddle) 10-B.Nix up the middle to DEN 40 for 1 yard (94-M.Herring).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 12:04DEN Touchdown

    (12:04) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 19-M.Mims for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 0 — DEN 7
  2. Q1 · 4:59DEN Touchdown

    (4:59) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 0 — DEN 14
  3. Q2 · 6:54DEN Touchdown

    (6:54) (No Huddle) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 17-D.Vele for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 0 — DEN 21
  4. Q2 · 0:06DEN Field goal

    (:06) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: KC 0 — DEN 24
  5. Q3 · 2:54DEN Touchdown

    (2:54) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 19-M.Mims for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 0 — DEN 31
  6. Q4 · 9:43DEN Touchdown

    (9:43) 79-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 23-A.Estime right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 0 — DEN 38

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChiefsBroncos
Offensive plays3371
Total yards98480 (edge)
Yards per play3.06.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.450.41 (edge)
Success rate12%58% (edge)
Dropback rate70%48%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.470.83 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.410.03 (edge)
Third downs1/910/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)28 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps429 (edge)
Sacks taken50 (edge)
Turnovers00

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.41 expected points added per play vs -0.45.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

26/29, 321 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

26.0 expected points added · +19.0% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Carson WentzQB

10/17, 98 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-8.8 expected points added · -5.4% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Bo NixQB

7 att, 47 yds, 0 TD

5.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Jaleel McLaughlinRB

16 att, 39 yds, 0 TD

-5.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

5/7 for 98 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Marvin MimsWR

5/5 for 51 yds, 2 TD

17% of team targets · 5.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DENDEN 308703:05Touchdown +7
2KCKC 30571:27Punt
3DENDEN 1511855:35Touchdown +7
4KCKC 30562:02Punt
5DENDEN 11199911:05Touchdown +7
6KCKC 3012425:42Missed field goal
7DENDEN 414591:01Field goal +3
8KC—100:03End of half
9KCKC 306102:13Punt
10DENDEN 20682:46Punt
11KCKC 32450:57Punt
12DENDEN 2112796:15Touchdown +7
13KCKC 306212:16Turnover on downs
14DENDEN 4911515:53Touchdown +7
15KCKC 30542:25Punt
16DENDEN 1810296:09Punt
17KCKC 15231:06End of game

6 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 99 scrimmage yards over 19 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Carson Wentz10/1798004-8.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Carson Steele8253.10-2.1
Chris Oladokun155.00-0.6
Samaje Perine111.00-0.5
Noah Gray1-4-4.00-1.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Nikko Remigio2648035%-0.4
Peyton Hendershot2225012%0.9
Samaje Perine111306%2.8
Justin Watson135018%-2.8
JuJu Smith-Schuster124012%-1.0
Carson Steele222012%-0.9
Noah Gray11106%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Cam Jones750.000
Nazeeh Johnson620.000
Joshua Uche530.000
Bryan Cook320.000
Leo Chenal230.000
Chamarri Conner320.000
Blake Lynch230.000
Jaden Hicks500.001
Malik Herring220.000
Marlon Tuipulotu120.000

Denver Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bo Nix26/2932140026.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bo Nix7476.705.6
Jaleel McLaughlin16392.40-5.3
Audric Estime12342.81-0.4
Javonte Williams5285.601.8
Jarrett Stidham273.501.3
Michael Burton133.000.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Courtland Sutton5798124%5.6
Marvin Mims5551217%5.2
Javonte Williams3450014%3.3
Devaughn Vele4450114%6.1
Lil'Jordan Humphrey222607%3.5
Nate Adkins3325010%1.2
Troy Franklin221207%1.2
Jaleel McLaughlin22907%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Nik Bonitto302.000
Ja'Quan McMillian300.001
Cody Barton120.000
Patrick Surtain300.000
Jordan Jackson201.000
Drew Sanders200.000
Jonathon Cooper111.000
Justin Strnad200.000
Michael Burton100.000
John Franklin-Myers101.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DEN -10.5
Closing total
40.5
KC moneyline
+370
DEN moneyline
-485

Broncos closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 38.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 38 — under by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
28°F, wind 5 mph
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
KC 11 days · DEN 8 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Sean Payton

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.