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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chiefs.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Chiefs136 of 143 plays carry both curves
(12:04) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 19-M.Mims for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +7.8 for BroncosExpected points +2.85 for BroncosThe model had Chiefs 18 points higher than the market did.play 8
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:04DEN +8% win prob(12:04) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 19-M.Mims for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:28DEN +4% win prob(10:28) (Shotgun) 38-J.McLaughlin right tackle to DEN 18 for 3 yards (94-M.Herring).
1st · 10:34DEN +3% win prob(10:34) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to DEN 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
1st · 6:54DEN +2% win prob(6:54) (No Huddle) 10-B.Nix up the middle to DEN 40 for 1 yard (94-M.Herring).
1st · 13:25DEN +1% win prob(13:25) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 17-D.Vele to KC 42 for 5 yards (27-C.Conner).
1st · 6:15DEN +1% win prob(6:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 14-C.Sutton to KC 13 for 47 yards (13-N.Johnson).
1st · 10:38KC +1% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Marvin Mims's 32-yard touchdown catch with 12:04 left in the 1st put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:04Marvin Mims·32-yd TD catch32-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo NixLead never changed again+70–7
1st4:59Courtland Sutton·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo Nix+70–14
2nd6:54Devaughn Vele·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo Nix+70–21
2nd0:06Wil Lutz·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Fraboni+30–24
3rd2:54Marvin Mims·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo Nix+70–31
Broncos ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.83 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.45Chiefs: −0.45 expected points added per play
+0.41Broncos: +0.41 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.47Chiefs: −0.47 expected points added per play
+0.83Broncos: +0.83 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.41Chiefs: −0.41 expected points added per play
+0.03Broncos: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 33 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Broncos’s 71 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 0, Broncos 6.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.41 expected points added per play vs -0.45.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DEN's sack or hit rate, 39.1%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 15.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 25.5% in week 4.
2.7 times their own weekly swing above their number.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DEN's blitz rate sent, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 9.3 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 18.2% in week 9.
2.2 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 2.7-swing turn from week 17.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.4 points.
DEN's play-action rate turned over: 20.5% in week 17 against 44.1% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points.
KC's pass rate over expected turned over: +15.3 pts in week 17 against −3.0 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 22 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −17.8 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−1.81× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Broncos39.1%
off script — got home · +19.7 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+2.71× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
NoteDEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 39.1%, 19.7 points above their season mean of 19.4% and 2.7 times their own 7.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Nix pass+7% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:04) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 19-M.Mims for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 12:04 · Broncos · 1st & 10 at KC 32 · gained 32 · +2.85 EP · +6.5% win probability
134 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 143 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 134 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 138. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 89 yards from the DEN 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
143 of 143 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
143
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
45%
Yards
577
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.5159%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.4374%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR16+0.156%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.0322%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.6567%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.1420%
Broncos0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Chiefs1 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
143 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
143 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Chiefs0Broncos6
Chiefs0Broncos7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Chiefs 32
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Chiefs 37
Chiefs0Broncos13
Chiefs0Broncos14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Broncos 15 to the Chiefs 10
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Chiefs 47
The period ended6 plays, from the Broncos 11 to the Broncos 31
2nd quarter38 plays
Chiefs0Broncos20
Chiefs0Broncos21
Touchdown17 plays, from the Broncos 43 to the Chiefs 3
No good13 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Broncos 22
Chiefs0Broncos24
Field goal6 plays, from the Broncos 41 to the Chiefs 15
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Chiefs 49
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 30
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 32 to the Chiefs 37
Chiefs0Broncos30
Chiefs0Broncos31
Touchdown12 plays, from the Broncos 21 to the Chiefs 7
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Broncos 42
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter30 plays
Chiefs0Broncos37
Chiefs0Broncos38
Touchdown10 plays, from the Broncos 48 to the Chiefs 1
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Chiefs 34
Punt11 plays, from the Broncos 18 to the Broncos 47
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
