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2024 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 5, 2025 · Allegiant Stadium

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

34

Las Vegas Raiders

20

LAC -7 ✓O 42.5 ✓Dome

Los Angeles Chargers 34–20. Biggest swing: Q2 0:44, LAC +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LV ↑LAC ↓
Q2 · 0:44LAC 9 — LV 10LV ball · 2nd & 5LAC 63%

(:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short right intended for 22-A.Mattison INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Henley at LV 34. 0-D.Henley to LV 30 for 4 yards (22-A.Mattison).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 0:44LAC +15% win prob(:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short right intended for 22-A.Mattison INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Henley at LV 34. 0-D.Henley to LV 30 for 4 yards (22-A.Mattison).
  2. Q1 · 5:08LAC +11% win prob(5:08) 11-C.Dicker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
  3. Q2 · 13:09LV +8% win prob(13:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 16-J.Meyers for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q2 · 0:14LV +8% win prob(:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 9-D.Chark for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 2:50LV Field goal

    (2:50) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: LAC 0 — LV 3
  2. Q1 · 0:14LAC Field goal

    (:14) 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 3 — LV 3
  3. Q2 · 13:09LV Touchdown

    (13:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 16-J.Meyers for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 3 — LV 10
  4. Q2 · 5:32LAC Field goal

    (5:32) 11-C.Dicker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 6 — LV 10
  5. Q2 · 1:10LAC Field goal

    (1:10) 11-C.Dicker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 9 — LV 10
  6. Q2 · 0:14LAC Touchdown

    (:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 9-D.Chark for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: LAC 17 — LV 10
  7. Q3 · 7:13LAC Field goal

    (7:13) 11-C.Dicker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 20 — LV 10
  8. Q3 · 2:20LV Field goal

    (2:20) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: LAC 20 — LV 13
  9. Q4 · 13:36LAC Touchdown

    (13:36) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 81-W.Dissly for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [49-C.Snowden]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 27 — LV 13
  10. Q4 · 3:43LAC Touchdown

    (3:43) 62-S.Mustipher reported in as eligible. 28-H.Haskins right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 34 — LV 13
  11. Q4 · 0:30LV Touchdown

    (:30) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short right to 89-B.Bowers for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 34 — LV 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChargersRaiders
Offensive plays7147
Total yards476 (edge)265
Yards per play6.7 (edge)5.6
Expected points added / play0.29 (edge)-0.10
Success rate55% (edge)43%
Dropback rate54%79%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.57 (edge)-0.08
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.03 (edge)-0.20
Third downs7/14 (edge)2/9
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps25 (edge)14
Sacks taken10 (edge)
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

28/36, 346 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

17.7 expected points added · +10.0% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Aidan O'ConnellQB

24/34, 214 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-3.9 expected points added · +4.4% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

J.K. DobbinsRB

18 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

-2.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Hassan HaskinsRB

12 att, 33 yds, 1 TD

1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Quentin JohnstonWR

13/14 for 186 yds, 0 TD

40% of team targets · 12.3 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Jakobi MeyersWR

9/10 for 123 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LVLV 30582:04Punt
2LACLAC 20492:06Punt
3LVLV 24461:31Punt
4LACLAC 127454:16Missed field goal
5LVLV 417372:17Field goal +3
6LACLAC 307552:35Field goal +3
7LVLV 307652:07Touchdown +7
8LACLAC 3016667:36Field goal +3
9LVLV 30531:36Punt
10LACLAC 179522:47Field goal +3
11LVLV 26350:27Interception
12LACLV 305320:28Touchdown +8
13LVLV 30200:10End of half
14LACLAC 3014617:50Field goal +3
15LVLV 309364:55Field goal +3
16LACLAC 309753:43Touchdown +7
17LVLV 427352:42Turnover on downs
18LACLAC 1913817:12Touchdown +7
19LVLV 3014703:13Touchdown +7
20LACLV 43200:25End of game

11 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 81 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert28/3634620117.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
J.K. Dobbins18633.50-2.4
Justin Herbert44210.501.7
Hassan Haskins12332.811.3
Derius Davis1-1-1.00-0.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Quentin Johnston1314186040%12.3
Ladd McConkey5895023%5.5
Will Dissly5642117%3.1
J.K. Dobbins331209%-0.8
D.J. Chark13619%1.3
Derius Davis11503%0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Troy Dye420.000
Tarheeb Still420.000
Daiyan Henley230.011
Alohi Gilman300.000
Cam Hart300.000
Derwin James210.001
Tony Jefferson210.000
Kristian Fulton200.000
Teair Tart100.000
Cameron Dicker100.000

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aidan O'Connell24/34214210-3.9
Desmond Ridder1/2110000.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Alexander Mattison6203.30-1.6
Aidan O'Connell4133.300.6
Chris Collier263.00-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jakobi Meyers910123129%4.6
Brock Bowers4950126%-2.1
Tre Tucker3424012%1.9
Michael Mayer4421012%0.1
Alexander Mattison4511015%-5.3
Chris Collier12-406%-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Robert Spillane6100.000
Decamerion Richardson550.000
Isaiah Pola-Mao540.000
Trevon Moehrig250.000
Divine Deablo250.000
Jonah Laulu150.000
Jack Jones320.001
Zach Carter140.001
John Jenkins130.000
Adam Butler311.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LAC -7
Closing total
42.5
LAC moneyline
-345
LV moneyline
+275

Chargers closed -7 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 54 — over by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · grass
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
LAC 8 days · LV 7 days
Coaches
Jim Harbaugh vs Antonio Pierce

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.