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Los Angeles Chargers 34 at Las Vegas Raiders 20. Final.
Chargers -7 ✓O 42.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 18
Los Angeles Chargers 34, Raiders 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:44, 2nd and 5, on Daiyan Henley — 14.8 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:44 · 2nd and 5
Daiyan Henley
Chargers
(:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short right intended for 22-A.Mattison INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Henley at LV 34. 0-D.Henley to LV 30 for 4 yards (22-A.Mattison).
Dome
Chargers closed -7 and covered, winning by 14.
Los Angeles Chargers 34–20. Biggest swing: Q2 0:44, Chargers +14.8% win probability on one snap.
14.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Cameron DickerRaidersQ1 5:08(5:08) 11-C.Dicker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
11.3pts
Jakobi MeyersRaidersQ2 13:09(13:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 16-J.Meyers for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.2pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.57 expected points per dropback, against Raiders at -0.08 expected points per dropback.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chargers won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Raiders at 2 of 9 on third down.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chargers won this one — +0.29 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.10 expected points per snap.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chargers won this one — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Chargers160 of 172 plays carry both curves
(:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short right intended for 22-A.Mattison INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Henley at LV 34. 0-D.Henley to LV 30 for 4 yards (22-A.Mattison).
Swing −14.8 for RaidersExpected points −4.09 for RaidersThe model had Raiders 23 points higher than the market did.play 84
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:44LAC +15% win prob(:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short right intended for 22-A.Mattison INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Henley at LV 34. 0-D.Henley to LV 30 for 4 yards (22-A.Mattison).
1st · 5:08LAC +11% win prob(5:08) 11-C.Dicker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
2nd · 13:09LV +8% win prob(13:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 16-J.Meyers for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:14LV +8% win prob(:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 9-D.Chark for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:23LV +7% win prob(2:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 15-L.McConkey to LV 20 for 47 yards (25-D.Richardson).
2nd · 10:15LV +6% win prob(10:15) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to LV 37 for 2 yards (69-A.Butler).
1st · 5:59
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.J. Chark's 6-yard touchdown catch with 0:14 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st2:50Daniel Carlson·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+30–3
1st0:14Cameron Dicker·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+33–3
Chargers ahead 8–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Raiders, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.57 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.29Chargers: +0.29 expected points added per play
−0.10Raiders: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.57Chargers: +0.57 expected points added per play
−0.08Raiders: −0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.03Chargers: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.20Raiders: −0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 71 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Raiders’s 47 at 79%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 6, Raiders 3.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LV's pass rate over expected turned over: −6.6 pts in week 17 against +7.4 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
LV's early-down pass rate turned over: 42.6% in week 17 against 72.2% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · −0.6 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Raiders7.9%
inside their normal wobble · −4.6 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteLV's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 7.4 pts, 8.2 points above their season mean of -0.9 pts and 1.3 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.O'Connell pass−20% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short right intended for 22-A.Mattison INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Henley at LV 34. 0-D.Henley to LV 30 for 4 yards (22-A.Mattison).
Q2 0:44 · Raiders · 2nd & 5 at LV 31 · gained nothing · -4.09 EP · −20.2% win probability
158 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 81 yards from the LAC 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
51%
Yards
739
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.3763%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR31-0.1377%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12+0.1750%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR9+0.2589%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.4257%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.7614%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.18100%
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Chargers3 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 38
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Chargers 29
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Raiders 30
No good8 plays, from the Chargers 12 to the Raiders 33
Chargers0Raiders3
Field goal7 plays, from the Raiders 41 to the Chargers 22
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Chargers3Raiders3
Field goal7 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Raiders 15
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter53 plays
Chargers3Raiders9
Chargers3Raiders10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Raiders 41 to the Chargers 25
Chargers6Raiders10
Field goal20 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Raiders 7
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 34
Chargers9Raiders10
Field goal10 plays, from the Chargers 17 to the Raiders 27
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Raiders 26 to the Raiders 31
Chargers15Raiders10
Chargers17Raiders10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 6
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Chargers20Raiders10
Field goal16 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Raiders 1
Chargers20Raiders13
Field goal10 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Chargers 29
The period ended7 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Chargers 49
4th quarter46 plays
Chargers26Raiders13
Chargers27Raiders13
Touchdown4 plays, from the Raiders 45 to the Raiders 2
The period ended9 plays, from the Raiders 42 to the Chargers 18
Chargers33Raiders13
Chargers34Raiders13
Touchdown15 plays, from the Chargers 19 to the Raiders 2
Chargers34Raiders19
Chargers34Raiders20
Touchdown15 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Chargers 12
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
