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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 5, 2025 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 18
It turned at Q1 13:15, 1st and 10, on Tyrel Dodson — 17.2 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:15 · 1st and 10
Tyrel Dodson
Dolphins
(13:15) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 11-T.Dodson (8-J.Holland) at NYJ 22. 11-T.Dodson to NYJ 15 for 7 yards (67-C.Warren; 76-Jo.Simpson).
New York Jets 32–20. Biggest swing: Q1 13:15, Dolphins +17.2% win probability on one snap.
17.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Jets won this one — 1 giveaway, against Dolphins at 4 giveaways.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Jets won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Dolphins at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jets won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 6 chunk plays.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jets won this one — 5 of 12 on third down, against Dolphins at 3 of 12 on third down.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
(13:15) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 11-T.Dodson (8-J.Holland) at NYJ 22. 11-T.Dodson to NYJ 15 for 7 yards (67-C.Warren; 76-Jo.Simpson).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tyler Conklin's 5-yard touchdown catch with 8:01 left in the 2nd put New York Jets ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Tyler Conklin5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Aaron RodgersLead never changed again+76–79 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Dolphinscategory by categoryJets
Jets ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 68 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Jets’s 63 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 5, Jets 5.
Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYJ's pass rate over expected, +11.6 pts, is past their previous high of +9.3 pts in week 14 — the highest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 24 pts
Over Expected room →Dolphins-2.6 ptsright on their number · −0.2 vs their -2.3 pts, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 68 snaps
Jets11.6 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +9.4 vs their 2.1 pts, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+1.83× that swing) · 62 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 27% to 84%
Tendencies room →Dolphins66.0%inside their normal wobble · +10.5 vs their 55.5%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (+0.95× that swing) · 53 early downs
Jets62.5%right on their number · +2.6 vs their 59.9%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 48 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 52%
Tendencies room →Dolphins27.1%right on their number · +2.2 vs their 24.8%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Jets32.5%leaned — faked the run · +8.1 vs their 24.4%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.07× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 123%
Fourth Down room →Dolphins66.7%inside their normal wobble · +23.2 vs their 43.5%, and they swing ±28.3 week to week (+0.82× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Jets66.7%right on their number · +10.7 vs their 55.9%, and they swing ±25.8 week to week (+0.42× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 65%
Tendencies room →Dolphins42.5%inside their normal wobble · +8.5 vs their 34.0%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (+0.71× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Jets18.8%leaned — sat back · −9.6 vs their 28.4%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 36%
Tendencies room →Dolphins10.0%right on their number · −2.6 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Jets22.9%leaned — got home · +9.3 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+1.07× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
NYJ's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 11.6 pts, 9.4 points above their season mean of 2.1 pts and 1.8 times their own 5.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYJ
23/36, 274 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
2.0 expected points added · -3.0% completion over expected
Passing · MIA
25/41, 227 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-6.9 expected points added · +4.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Devon Achane banked 10.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 25.0 | +5.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/36, 274 yd, 4 TD, 1 INT |
| Davante AdamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.8 | −5.4 | 92% | 93% | 34% | 48% | 6/12, 88 yd, 1 TD |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Alpha Receiver | 18.6 | +0.4 | 60% | 71% | 32% | 21% | 9/12, 56 yd, 1 TD |
| Breece HallRB · Committee Back | 18.2 | +3.0 | 70% | 78% | 14% | 0% | 12 car, 57 yd · 3/5, 15 yd, 1 TD |
| Devon AchaneRB | 18.1 | +10.5 | 70% | 71% | 0% | — | 11 car, 121 yd, 1 TD |
| Allen LazardWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.1 | +8.7 | 89% | 88% | 9% | 20% | 0/1, 0 yd · 3/3, 71 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler ConklinTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.6 | +3.4 | 22% | 28% | 9% | 10% | 2/3, 16 yd, 1 TD |
| Garrett WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.1 | +1.0 | 98% | 100% | 14% | 6% | 1 car, 0 yd · 4/5, 51 yd |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Featured Receiver | 9.0 | −6.2 | 90% | 88% | 24% | 43% | 1 car, 6 yd · 4/9, 44 yd |
| Malik WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.8 | +2.4 | 61% | 58% | 14% | 11% | 4/5, 48 yd |
| Tyler HuntleyQB · Starter QB | 8.7 | −10.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/41, 227 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 3 car, 16 yd |
| River CracraftWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.8 | +2.5 | 36% | 40% | 11% | 11% | 4/4, 38 yd |
| Braelon AllenRB | 4.3 | −2.9 | 22% | 20% | 9% | 2% | 4 car, 15 yd · 2/3, 8 yd |
| Alec IngoldRB | 4.1 | +1.4 | 24% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 2/2, 21 yd |
| Isaiah DavisRB | 4.1 | +1.6 | 13% | 8% | 0% | — | 4 car, 41 yd |
| Tyreek HillWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −1.2 | 39% | 38% | 8% | 14% | 2/3, 20 yd |
| Kenny YeboahTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | +0.8 | 39% | 35% | 6% | 6% | 2/2, 20 yd |
| Jeremy RuckertTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −1.3 | 48% | 45% | 6% | 3% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Xavier GipsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.5 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Raheem MostertRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Durham SmytheTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.8 | 26% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Julian HillTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −0.9 | 61% | 46% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jaylen WrightRB | -0.4 | −3.5 | 13% | 4% | 0% | — | 6 car, -4 yd |
| Jeffery WilsonRB | -0.4 | −1.8 | 19% | 19% | 0% | — | 2 car, -4 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:16) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley pass deep left intended for 17-J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Davis at NYJ 10. 21-A.Davis pushed ob at NYJ 10 for no gain (17-J.Waddle).
Q2 7:16 · Dolphins · 1st & 10 at NYJ 37 · gained nothing · -3.51 EP · −17.2% win probability
164 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 176 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 79 yards from the NYJ 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Dolphins3
Jets0How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Dolphins6Jets0Dolphins6Jets6Dolphins6Jets7How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Dolphins6Jets13Dolphins6Jets15Dolphins6Jets18Dolphins12Jets18Dolphins13Jets18Dolphins13Jets24Dolphins13Jets25Dolphins19Jets25Dolphins20Jets25Dolphins20Jets31Dolphins20Jets32Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Dolphins at Jets, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 25/41 | 227 | 1 | 2 | 4 | −6.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Achane | 11 | 121 | 11.0 | 1 | +5.9 |
| Tyler Huntley | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 | +1.7 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonnu Smith | 9 | 12 | 56 | 1 | 32% | −3.1 |
| Malik Washington | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 14% | +7.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Poyer | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jevon Holland | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zach Sieler | 4 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordyn Brooks |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 23/36 | 274 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +2.0 |
| Allen Lazard | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1.0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_18_MIA_NYJ
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Jets closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 12.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 52 — over by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Jaylen Wright | 6 | -4 | -0.7 | 0 | −3.6 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 | −2.9 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 9 | 44 | 0 | 24% | −8.8 |
| River Cracraft | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 | 11% | +4.7 |
| Alec Ingold | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 5% | +1.6 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 8% | +0.4 |
| Julian Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Durham Smythe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Kader Kohou | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Storm Duck | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyrel Dodson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quinton Bell | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calais Campbell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 12 | 57 | 4.8 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Isaiah Davis | 4 | 41 | 10.3 | 0 | +2.1 |
| Braelon Allen | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Xavier Gipson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Garrett Wilson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 6 | 12 | 88 | 1 | 34% | −3.1 |
| Allen Lazard | 3 | 3 | 71 | 1 | 9% | +7.2 |
| Garrett Wilson | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 | 14% | +4.1 |
| Kenny Yeboah | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 6% | +1.4 |
| Tyler Conklin | 2 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 9% | +0.8 |
| Breece Hall | 3 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 14% | −0.1 |
| Braelon Allen | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 9% | −1.3 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6% | −1.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Williams | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ashtyn Davis | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Isaiah Oliver | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamien Sherwood | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Reed | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tony Adams | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandin Echols | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarius Monroe | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Haason Reddick | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Bruce Hector | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
