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2024 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 5, 2025 · MetLife Stadium

Miami Dolphins

20

New York JetsWinner

32

NYJ -1.5 ✓O 39.5 ✓

New York Jets 32–20. Biggest swing: Q1 13:15, MIA +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NYJ ↑MIA ↓
Q1 · 13:15MIA 0 — NYJ 0NYJ ball · 1st & 10NYJ 58%

(13:15) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 11-T.Dodson (8-J.Holland) at NYJ 22. 11-T.Dodson to NYJ 15 for 7 yards (67-C.Warren; 76-Jo.Simpson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 13:15MIA +17% win prob(13:15) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 11-T.Dodson (8-J.Holland) at NYJ 22. 11-T.Dodson to NYJ 15 for 7 yards (67-C.Warren; 76-Jo.Simpson).
  2. Q2 · 1:55MIA +16% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley sacked at MIA 47 for -10 yards (sack split by 7-H.Reddick and 99-W.McDonald). FUMBLES (7-H.Reddick) [99-W.McDonald], touched at MIA 45, RECOVERED by NYJ-56-Qi.Williams at MIA 43. 56-Qi.Williams to MIA 39 for 4 yards (77-I.Wynn).
  3. Q2 · 3:20MIA +13% win prob(3:20) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at MIA 45 for -7 yards (sack split by 92-Z.Sieler and 91-E.Ogbah).
  4. Q1 · 1:57NYJ +12% win prob(1:57) 28-D.Achane up the middle to NYJ 3 for 61 yards (4-D.Reed). NYJ-26-B.Echols was injured during the play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:49MIA Field goal

    (11:49) 7-J.Sanders 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: MIA 3 — NYJ 0
  2. Q1 · 0:01MIA Field goal

    (:01) 7-J.Sanders 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: MIA 6 — NYJ 0
  3. Q2 · 8:01NYJ Touchdown

    (8:01) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 83-T.Conklin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 500th Career TD Pass for Aaron Rodgers; 5th player in NFL history to reach the 500-touchdown pass milestone. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 6 — NYJ 7
  4. Q2 · 1:04NYJ Touchdown

    (1:04) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 10-A.Lazard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: MIA 6 — NYJ 15
  5. Q3 · 6:38NYJ Field goal

    (6:38) 40-G.Joseph 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: MIA 6 — NYJ 18
  6. Q4 · 14:17MIA Touchdown

    (14:17) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane up the middle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 13 — NYJ 18
  7. Q4 · 10:31NYJ Touchdown

    (10:31) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-D.Adams for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 13 — NYJ 25
  8. Q4 · 5:24MIA Touchdown

    (5:24) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley pass short left to 9-J.Smith for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYJ-26-B.Echols, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 20 — NYJ 25
  9. Q4 · 2:37NYJ Touchdown

    (2:37) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 20-B.Hall for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 20 — NYJ 32

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricDolphinsJets
Offensive plays6863
Total yards334377 (edge)
Yards per play4.96.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.130.06 (edge)
Success rate43%43% (edge)
Dropback rate71%63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.190.03 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.010.12 (edge)
Third downs3/125/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)69 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps2122 (edge)
Sacks taken43 (edge)
Turnovers41 (edge)

Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Aaron RodgersQB

23/36, 274 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

2.0 expected points added · -3.0% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tyler HuntleyQB

25/41, 227 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-6.9 expected points added · +4.8% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Devon AchaneRB

11 att, 121 yds, 1 TD

5.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Breece HallRB

12 att, 57 yds, 0 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Davante AdamsWR

6/12 for 88 yds, 1 TD

34% of team targets · -3.1 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Allen LazardWR

3/3 for 71 yds, 1 TD

9% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MIAMIA 33521:45Punt
2NYJNYJ 16100:11Interception
3MIANYJ 15471:18Field goal +3
4NYJNYJ 236101:46Punt
5MIAMIA 335222:04Punt
6NYJNYJ 265132:56Punt
7MIAMIA 149765:00Field goal +3
8NYJNYJ 30550:54Punt
9MIAMIA 34432:19Punt
10NYJNYJ 219793:50Touchdown +7
11MIAMIA 403230:48Interception
12NYJNYJ 109453:54Turnover on downs
13MIAMIA 464-11:28Fumble
14NYJMIA 394410:48Touchdown +8
15MIANYJ 275110:38Interception
16NYJNYJ 12120:21End of half
17NYJNYJ 30672:39Punt
18MIAMIA 40341:48Fumble
19NYJMIA 4910353:58Field goal +3
20MIAMIA 2216837:23Touchdown +7
21NYJNYJ 309703:48Touchdown +7
22MIAMIA 3014705:03Touchdown +7
23NYJNYJ 3011702:51Touchdown +7
24MIAMIA 269342:30End of game

9 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 83 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tyler Huntley25/41227124-6.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Devon Achane1112111.015.9
Tyler Huntley3165.301.7
Jaylen Waddle166.000.7
Jaylen Wright6-4-0.70-3.6
Jeffery Wilson2-4-2.00-2.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jonnu Smith91256132%-3.1
Malik Washington4548014%7.6
Jaylen Waddle4944024%-8.8
River Cracraft4438011%4.7
Alec Ingold222105%1.6
Tyreek Hill232008%0.4
Julian Hill01003%-0.5
Durham Smythe01003%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jordan Poyer440.000
Jevon Holland430.001
Zach Sieler421.500
Jordyn Brooks330.001
Kader Kohou320.000
Storm Duck310.001
Tyrel Dodson210.012
Jalen Ramsey300.001
Quinton Bell110.000
Calais Campbell111.000

New York Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers23/362744132.0
Allen Lazard0/10000-1.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Breece Hall12574.80-0.6
Isaiah Davis44110.302.1
Braelon Allen4153.801.4
Xavier Gipson155.000.4
Garrett Wilson100.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Davante Adams61288134%-3.1
Allen Lazard337119%7.2
Garrett Wilson4551014%4.1
Kenny Yeboah222006%1.4
Tyler Conklin231619%0.8
Breece Hall3515114%-0.1
Braelon Allen23809%-1.3
Jeremy Ruckert12506%-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Quincy Williams620.001
Ashtyn Davis710.022
Isaiah Oliver610.000
Jamien Sherwood330.000
D.J. Reed410.001
Tony Adams130.000
Brandin Echols300.000
Jarius Monroe300.000
Haason Reddick120.500
Bruce Hector211.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
NYJ -1.5
Closing total
39.5
MIA moneyline
+102
NYJ moneyline
-122

Jets closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 12.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 52 — over by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
34°F, wind 10 mph
Referee
Tra Blake
Rest
MIA 7 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches
Mike McDaniel vs Robert Saleh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.