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2024 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 5, 2025 · Ford Field

Minnesota Vikings

9

Detroit LionsWinner

31

DET -3 ✓U 56.5 ✓Dome

Detroit Lions 31–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 7:03, MIN +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DETMIN
Q2 · 7:03MIN 0DET 7DET ball · 1st & 10DET 79%

(7:03) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 13-C.Reynolds INTERCEPTED by 0-I.Pace (44-J.Metellus) at DET 13. 0-I.Pace to DET 7 for 6 yards (13-C.Reynolds; 16-J.Goff).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 7:03MIN +19% win prob(7:03) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 13-C.Reynolds INTERCEPTED by 0-I.Pace (44-J.Metellus) at DET 13. 0-I.Pace to DET 7 for 6 yards (13-C.Reynolds; 16-J.Goff).
  2. Q3 · 14:22DET +16% win prob(14:22) 27-C.Akers left tackle to DET 5 for 58 yards (31-K.Joseph).
  3. Q3 · 2:33DET +13% win prob(2:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 26-J.Gibbs for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q3 · 12:06MIN +10% win prob(12:06) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 3-J.Addison (0-T.Arnold).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 1:49DET Touchdown

    (1:49) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 0DET 7
  2. Q2 · 6:38MIN Field goal

    (6:38) 16-W.Reichard 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: MIN 3DET 7
  3. Q2 · 0:24MIN Field goal

    (:24) 16-W.Reichard 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: MIN 6DET 7
  4. Q2 · 0:02DET Field goal

    (:02) 39-J.Bates 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: MIN 6DET 10
  5. Q3 · 10:00MIN Field goal

    (10:00) 16-W.Reichard 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: MIN 9DET 10
  6. Q3 · 2:33DET Touchdown

    (2:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 26-J.Gibbs for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 9DET 17
  7. Q4 · 13:12DET Touchdown

    (13:12) 26-J.Gibbs left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 9DET 24
  8. Q4 · 5:20DET Touchdown

    (5:20) (Shotgun) 26-J.Gibbs left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 9DET 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricVikingsLions
Offensive plays6166
Total yards263394 (edge)
Yards per play4.36.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.340.01 (edge)
Success rate30%48% (edge)
Dropback rate74%53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.530.05 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.21 (edge)-0.02
Third downs3/135/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)36 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1023 (edge)
Sacks taken22
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.34.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

27/33, 231 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

1.6 expected points added · +10.0% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Sam DarnoldQB

18/41, 166 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-24.8 expected points added · -17.7% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Jahmyr GibbsRB

23 att, 139 yds, 3 TD

1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Cam AkersRB

6 att, 65 yds, 0 TD

2.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

6/7 for 77 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Sam LaPortaTE

7/7 for 63 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DETDET 30864:00Punt
2MINMIN 149343:59Punt
3DETDET 2210885:18Touchdown +7
4MINMIN 205-81:43Punt
5DETDET 314-161:50Punt
6MIN509473:00Turnover on downs
7DETDET 37233:15Interception
8MINDET 7400:20Field goal +3
9DETDET 307282:58Turnover on downs
10MINMIN 429403:17Field goal +3
11DETDET 404300:20Field goal +3
12MINMIN 309633:02Turnover on downs
13DETDET 2100:08Interception
14MINMIN 466341:55Field goal +3
15DETDET 3015747:25Touchdown +7
16MINMIN 307362:07Missed field goal
17DETDET 417592:17Touchdown +7
18MINMIN 307-12:53Punt
19DETDET 268724:59Touchdown +7
20MINMIN 308181:05Fumble
21DETMIN 436303:42Turnover on downs
22MINMIN 23100:27End of game

8 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 88 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Sam Darnold18/41166002-24.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Cam Akers66510.802.8
Aaron Jones10454.500.6
Sam Darnold3103.300.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Justin Jefferson3954024%-2.8
Jalen Nailor3453011%2.0
Aaron Jones5630016%0.4
Josh Oliver231608%0.2
T.J. Hockenson289021%-7.1
Cam Akers22405%-0.9
Jordan Addison160016%-7.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Ivan Pace450.011
Blake Cashman530.000
Byron Murphy520.000
Andrew Van Ginkel330.001
Harrison Phillips150.000
Josh Metellus320.001
Camryn Bynum500.000
Jonathan Greenard311.000
Harrison Smith310.011
Theo Jackson210.000

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff27/332311221.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jahmyr Gibbs231396.031.8
Craig Reynolds8394.90-2.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown6777022%4.7
Sam LaPorta7763022%4.1
Jameson Williams6834025%-1.3
Jahmyr Gibbs5531116%5.4
Tim Patrick221506%-0.4
Kalif Raymond111103%0.4
Craig Reynolds02006%-7.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Alex Anzalone340.001
Kerby Joseph420.000
Jack Campbell240.000
Brian Branch330.001
Amik Robertson410.001
D.J. Reader120.000
Kindle Vildor020.001
Levi Onwuzurike110.000
Ifeatu Melifonwu200.000
Hogan Hatten110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DET -3
Closing total
56.5
MIN moneyline
+124
DET moneyline
-148

Lions closed -3 and covered, winning by 22.

Total closed 56.5; the game landed 40 — under by 16.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
MIN 7 days · DET 6 days
Coaches
Kevin O'Connell vs Dan Campbell

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.