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Detroit Lions 31, Vikings 9 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 7:03, 1st and 10, on Ivan Pace — 18.6 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 7:03 · 1st and 10
Ivan Pace
Vikings
(7:03) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 13-C.Reynolds INTERCEPTED by 0-I.Pace (44-J.Metellus) at DET 13. 0-I.Pace to DET 7 for 6 yards (13-C.Reynolds; 16-J.Goff).
Dome
Lions closed -3 and covered, winning by 22.
Detroit Lions 31–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 7:03, Vikings +18.6% win probability on one snap.
18.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Cam AkersVikingsQ3 14:22(14:22) 27-C.Akers left tackle to DET 5 for 58 yards (31-K.Joseph).
16.2pts
Jahmyr GibbsLionsQ3 2:33(2:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 26-J.Gibbs for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.0pts
What separated them
Red zone
Lions won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Vikings at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Lions won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Vikings at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Lions won this one — +0.05 expected points per dropback, against Vikings at -0.53 expected points per dropback.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Lions won this one — +0.01 expected points per snap, against Vikings at -0.34 expected points per snap.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Vikings164 of 172 plays carry both curves
(7:03) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 13-C.Reynolds INTERCEPTED by 0-I.Pace (44-J.Metellus) at DET 13. 0-I.Pace to DET 7 for 6 yards (13-C.Reynolds; 16-J.Goff).
Swing −18.6 for LionsExpected points −6.79 for LionsThe model had Vikings 4 points higher than the market did.play 58
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 7:03MIN +19% win prob(7:03) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 13-C.Reynolds INTERCEPTED by 0-I.Pace (44-J.Metellus) at DET 13. 0-I.Pace to DET 7 for 6 yards (13-C.Reynolds; 16-J.Goff).
3rd · 14:22DET +16% win prob(14:22) 27-C.Akers left tackle to DET 5 for 58 yards (31-K.Joseph).
3rd · 2:33DET +13% win prob(2:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 26-J.Gibbs for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 12:06MIN +10% win prob(12:06) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 3-J.Addison (0-T.Arnold).
2nd · 11:44DET +10% win prob(11:44) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson pushed ob at DET 5 for 31 yards (21-A.Robertson) [31-K.Joseph].
2nd · 2:14DET +9% win prob(2:14) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 83-J.Nailor to DET 36 for 18 yards (32-B.Branch).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jahmyr Gibbs's 25-yard rushing touchdown with 1:49 left in the 1st put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st1:49Jahmyr Gibbs·25-yd TD run25-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
2nd6:38Will Reichard·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+33–7
2nd0:24Will Reichard·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+36–7
2nd0:02Jake Bates·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.Hatten+36–10
3rd10:00Will Reichard·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+39–10
3rd2:33Jahmyr Gibbs·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+79–17
Lions ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.34Vikings: −0.34 expected points added per play
+0.01Lions: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.53Vikings: −0.53 expected points added per play
+0.05Lions: +0.05 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.21Vikings: +0.21 expected points added per play
−0.02Lions: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 61 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Lions’s 66 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 4, Lions 4.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIN's blitz rate sent, 65.7%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 10.2 points clear of the next team along.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.4 points.
high through week 18Against their seasonFourth Down
MIN's fourth-and-short go rate, 50.0%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 3 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 18.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 7 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +0.8 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Lions22.2%
leaned — got home · +6.7 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.02× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
NoteMIN's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 50.0%, 19.0 points above their season mean of 31.0% and 2.1 times their own 9.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
64Blake BrandelG · Every snap100%65 snaps
74Cam RobinsonT · Every snap100%65 snaps
66Dalton RisnerG · Every snap100%65 snaps
75Brian O'NeillT · Every snap100%65 snaps
56Garrett BradburyC · Every snap100%65 snaps
14Sam DarnoldQB · Every snap100%65 snaps
18Justin JeffersonWR · Full-time98%64 snaps
3Jordan AddisonWR · Full-time89%58 snaps
87T.J. HockensonTE · Heavy rotation78%51 snaps
33Aaron JonesRB · Heavy rotation62%40 snaps
83Jalen NailorWR · Rotational49%32 snaps
84Josh OliverTE · Rotational46%30 snaps
27Cam AkersRB · Rotational31%20 snaps
30C.J. HamFB · Situational18%12 snaps
11Trent SherfieldWR · Situational9%6 snaps
86Johnny MundtTE · Situational9%6 snaps
4Brandon PowellWR · Situational9%6 snaps
Inactive · 7
Dan FeeneyCFabian MoreauCBLevi Drake RodriguezDTCalvin MunsonILBPatrick Jones IIOLBBrett RypienQBWalter RouseT
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Akers left+17% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(14:22) 27-C.Akers left tackle to DET 5 for 58 yards (31-K.Joseph).
Q3 14:22 · Vikings · 2nd & 10 at MIN 37 · gained 58 · +4.61 EP · +17.5% win probability
162 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 78 yards from the DET 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
42%
Yards
656
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.4580%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.0061%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.2757%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.1763%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR12-0.4425%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.2020%
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Lions 43
Punt10 plays, from the Vikings 14 to the Vikings 48
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linebackers and six backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Vikings0Lions6
Vikings0Lions7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Lions 22 to the Vikings 25
Punt5 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt5 plays
Turnover on downs9 plays, from midfield to the Lions 3
How the play was built
A screen, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Intercepted7 plays, from the Lions 3 to the Lions 26
Vikings3Lions7
Field goal4 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Vikings 42
Vikings6Lions7
Field goal10 plays, from the Vikings 42 to the Lions 13
Vikings6Lions10
Field goal6 plays, from the Lions 40 to the Vikings 30
3rd quarter42 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.1 seconds
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Lions 2
Intercepted1 play
Vikings9Lions10
Field goal6 plays, from the Vikings 46 to the Lions 33
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.9 seconds
Vikings9Lions16
Vikings9Lions17
Touchdown16 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Vikings 10
No good7 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Lions 34
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter44 plays
Vikings9Lions23
Vikings9Lions24
Touchdown6 plays, from the Vikings 45 to the Vikings 13
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Vikings 41
Vikings9Lions30
Vikings9Lions31
Touchdown9 plays, from the Lions 26 to the Vikings 4
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Vikings 48
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Vikings 43 to the Vikings 28
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Lions -3
Closing total
56.5
Vikings moneyline
+124
Lions moneyline
-148
Lions closed -3 and covered, winning by 22.
Total closed 56.5; the game landed 40 — under by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
Vikings 7 days · Lions 6 days
Coaches
Kevin O'Connell vs Dan Campbell
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 3:42
MIN +9% win prob
(3:42) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 9-Ja.Williams (90-J.Bullard).
1st · 2:25DET +8% win prob(2:25) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 9-Ja.Williams pushed ob at MIN 25 for 14 yards (2-S.Gilmore) [44-J.Metellus].
