2024 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 5, 2025 · Ford Field
Minnesota Vikings
9
Detroit LionsWinner
31
Detroit Lions 31–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 7:03, MIN +19% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(7:03) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 13-C.Reynolds INTERCEPTED by 0-I.Pace (44-J.Metellus) at DET 13. 0-I.Pace to DET 7 for 6 yards (13-C.Reynolds; 16-J.Goff).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q2 · 7:03MIN +19% win prob(7:03) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 13-C.Reynolds INTERCEPTED by 0-I.Pace (44-J.Metellus) at DET 13. 0-I.Pace to DET 7 for 6 yards (13-C.Reynolds; 16-J.Goff).
- Q3 · 14:22DET +16% win prob(14:22) 27-C.Akers left tackle to DET 5 for 58 yards (31-K.Joseph).
- Q3 · 2:33DET +13% win prob(2:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 26-J.Gibbs for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q3 · 12:06MIN +10% win prob(12:06) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 3-J.Addison (0-T.Arnold).
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 1:49DET Touchdown
(1:49) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 0 — DET 7 - Q2 · 6:38MIN Field goal
(6:38) 16-W.Reichard 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 3 — DET 7 - Q2 · 0:24MIN Field goal
(:24) 16-W.Reichard 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 6 — DET 7 - Q2 · 0:02DET Field goal
(:02) 39-J.Bates 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Score after this play: MIN 6 — DET 10 - Q3 · 10:00MIN Field goal
(10:00) 16-W.Reichard 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 9 — DET 10 - Q3 · 2:33DET Touchdown
(2:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 26-J.Gibbs for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 9 — DET 17 - Q4 · 13:12DET Touchdown
(13:12) 26-J.Gibbs left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 9 — DET 24 - Q4 · 5:20DET Touchdown
(5:20) (Shotgun) 26-J.Gibbs left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 9 — DET 31
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Vikings | Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 61 | 66 |
| Total yards | 263 | 394 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.3 | 6.0 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.34 | 0.01 (edge) |
| Success rate | 30% | 48% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 74% | 53% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.53 | 0.05 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.21 (edge) | -0.02 |
| Third downs | 3/13 | 5/12 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 3 | 6 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 10 | 23 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 2 | 2 |
| Turnovers | 1 (edge) | 2 |
Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · DET
27/33, 231 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
1.6 expected points added · +10.0% completion over expected
Passing · MIN
18/41, 166 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-24.8 expected points added · -17.7% completion over expected
Receiving · DET
6/7 for 77 yds, 0 TD
22% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | DET 30 | 8 | 6 | 4:00 | Punt | |
| 2 | MIN | MIN 14 | 9 | 34 | 3:59 | Punt | |
| 3 | DET | DET 22 | 10 | 88 | 5:18 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 4 | MIN | MIN 20 | 5 | -8 | 1:43 | Punt | |
| 5 | DET | DET 31 | 4 | -16 | 1:50 | Punt | |
| 6 | MIN | 50 | 9 | 47 | 3:00 | Turnover on downs | |
| 7 | DET | DET 3 | 7 | 23 | 3:15 | Interception | |
| 8 | MIN | DET 7 | 4 | 0 | 0:20 | Field goal +3 | |
| 9 | DET | DET 30 | 7 | 28 | 2:58 | Turnover on downs | |
| 10 | MIN | MIN 42 | 9 | 40 | 3:17 | Field goal +3 | |
| 11 | DET | DET 40 | 4 | 30 | 0:20 | Field goal +3 | |
| 12 | MIN | MIN 30 | 9 | 63 | 3:02 | Turnover on downs | |
| 13 | DET | DET 2 | 1 | 0 | 0:08 | Interception | |
| 14 | MIN | MIN 46 | 6 | 34 | 1:55 | Field goal +3 | |
| 15 | DET | DET 30 | 15 | 74 | 7:25 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 16 | MIN | MIN 30 | 7 | 36 | 2:07 | Missed field goal | |
| 17 | DET | DET 41 | 7 | 59 | 2:17 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 18 | MIN | MIN 30 | 7 | -1 | 2:53 | Punt | |
| 19 | DET | DET 26 | 8 | 72 | 4:59 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 20 | MIN | MIN 30 | 8 | 18 | 1:05 | Fumble | |
| 21 | DET | MIN 43 | 6 | 30 | 3:42 | Turnover on downs | |
| 22 | MIN | MIN 23 | 1 | 0 | 0:27 | End of game |
8 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 88 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
Minnesota Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 18/41 | 166 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -24.8 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 6 | 65 | 10.8 | 0 | 2.8 |
| Aaron Jones | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 | 0.6 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 | 0.8 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 3 | 9 | 54 | 0 | 24% | -2.8 |
| Jalen Nailor | 3 | 4 | 53 | 0 | 11% | 2.0 |
| Aaron Jones | 5 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 16% | 0.4 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 8% | 0.2 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 2 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 21% | -7.1 |
| Cam Akers | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5% | -0.9 |
| Jordan Addison | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16% | -7.4 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Pace | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Blake Cashman | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Murphy | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Harrison Phillips | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Metellus | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Camryn Bynum | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Greenard | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Smith | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Theo Jackson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Detroit Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 27/33 | 231 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1.6 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 23 | 139 | 6.0 | 3 | 1.8 |
| Craig Reynolds | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 | -2.4 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 6 | 7 | 77 | 0 | 22% | 4.7 |
| Sam LaPorta | 7 | 7 | 63 | 0 | 22% | 4.1 |
| Jameson Williams | 6 | 8 | 34 | 0 | 25% | -1.3 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 5 | 5 | 31 | 1 | 16% | 5.4 |
| Tim Patrick | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 6% | -0.4 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | 0.4 |
| Craig Reynolds | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | -7.3 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Anzalone | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kerby Joseph | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Campbell | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Branch | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Amik Robertson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| D.J. Reader | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kindle Vildor | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Levi Onwuzurike | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hogan Hatten | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- DET -3
- Closing total
- 56.5
- MIN moneyline
- +124
- DET moneyline
- -148
Lions closed -3 and covered, winning by 22.
Total closed 56.5; the game landed 40 — under by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Ford Field
- Roof / surface
- dome · fieldturf
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- Brad Rogers
- Rest
- MIN 7 days · DET 6 days
- Coaches
- Kevin O'Connell vs Dan Campbell
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.