2024 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 5, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium

New Orleans Saints

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

TB -14.5 no coverO 44.5 ✓Buccaneers closed -14.5, won by 8 — but didn't cover.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27–19. Biggest swing: Q4 10:49, TB +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 10:49NO 19 — TB 13TB ball · 4th & 8NO 58%

(10:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 15-J.McMillan to NO 9 for 33 yards (0-U.Amadi). PENALTY on TB-15-J.McMillan, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NO 9.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 10:49TB +17% win prob(10:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 15-J.McMillan to NO 9 for 33 yards (0-U.Amadi). PENALTY on TB-15-J.McMillan, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NO 9.
Q4 · 10:18TB +16% win prob(10:18) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 15-J.McMillan for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 4:15TB +14% win prob(4:15) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle to TB 40 for 28 yards (0-U.Amadi).
Q4 · 11:34NO +14% win prob(11:34) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield left end to NO 42 for -7 yards (0-U.Amadi).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:20NO Field goal
(9:20) 19-B.Grupe 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.
Score after this play: NO 3 — TB 0
Q1 · 4:56TB Field goal
(4:56) 4-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.
Score after this play: NO 3 — TB 3
Q2 · 14:55NO Field goal
(14:55) 19-B.Grupe 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.
Score after this play: NO 6 — TB 3
Q2 · 6:19NO Touchdown
(6:19) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short left to 17-D.Pettis for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 13 — TB 3
Q2 · 1:05TB Field goal
(1:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.
Score after this play: NO 13 — TB 6
Q2 · 0:11NO Field goal
(:11) 19-B.Grupe 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.
Score after this play: NO 16 — TB 6
Q3 · 10:33TB Touchdown
(10:33) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 87-P.Durham for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 16 — TB 13
Q3 · 5:58NO Field goal
(5:58) 19-B.Grupe 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.
Score after this play: NO 19 — TB 13
Q4 · 10:18TB Touchdown
(10:18) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 15-J.McMillan for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 19 — TB 20
Q4 · 2:00TB Touchdown
(2:00) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 19 — TB 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	63	63
Total yards	292	396 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6	6.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.00	0.22 (edge)
Success rate	41%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	71%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.02	0.39 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05 (edge)	-0.06
Third downs	3/13	10/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.00.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Spencer RattlerQB

26/42, 240 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-1.1 expected points added · +1.9% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

21/32, 221 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

9.4 expected points added · +2.9% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Bucky IrvingRB

19 att, 89 yds, 1 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

9 att, 68 yds, 0 TD

2.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

9/14 for 89 yds, 0 TD

45% of team targets · -1.2 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Juwan JohnsonTE

6/7 for 80 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 30	12	54	5:44	Field goal +3
2	TB	TB 23	10	38	4:25	Field goal +3
3	NO	NO 30	11	49	4:59	Field goal +3
4	TB	TB 30	5	6	1:02	Punt
5	NO	NO 21	15	79	7:36	Touchdown +7
6	TB	TB 30	13	73	5:11	Field goal +3
7	NO	NO 30	11	49	0:56	Field goal +3
8	TB	TB 32	2	0	0:07	End of half
9	TB	TB 28	12	45	4:33	Touchdown +7
10	NO	NO 30	5	1	1:05	Punt
11	TB	TB 25	3	6	1:53	Interception
12	NO	TB 37	4	6	1:36	Field goal +3
13	TB	TB 30	5	3	1:33	Punt
14	NO	TB 47	4	8	2:02	Punt
15	TB	TB 18	13	127	7:09	Touchdown +7
16	NO	NO 30	7	13	2:31	Punt
17	TB	TB 6	13	89	5:47	Touchdown +7
18	NO	NO 30	8	33	1:15	Turnover on downs
19	TB	TB 32	1	9	0:36	End of game

10 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 127 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Spencer Rattler	26/42	240	1	0	2	-1.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	8	26	3.3	-1.5
Jamaal Williams	8	15	1.9	-1.0
Jordan Mims	2	12	6.0	1.6
Spencer Rattler	1	11	11.0	2.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Juwan Johnson	6	7	80	0	18%	6.6
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	3	8	33	0	21%	-3.0
Foster Moreau	4	4	31	0	10%	0.4
Cedrick Wilson	3	5	22	0	13%	-3.2
Dante Pettis	2	6	16	1	15%	0.4
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	1	1	14	0	3%	3.0
Jordan Mims	3	3	13	0	8%	-0.4
Kevin Austin	1	1	13	0	3%	0.6
Dallin Holker	2	3	11	0	8%	-1.6
Jamaal Williams	1	1	7	0	3%	0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Demario Davis	6	3	0.0	0	1
Nephi Sewell	5	3	1.0	0	0
Will Harris	8	0	0.0	0	1
Ugochukwu Amadi	6	0	0.0	0	0
Carl Granderson	2	2	0.0	0	1
Jordan Howden	3	0	0.0	1	1
Anfernee Orji	1	2	0.0	0	0
Kool-Aid McKinstry	2	1	0.0	0	1
Alontae Taylor	2	0	0.0	0	0
Millard Bradford	2	0	0.0	0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	21/32	221	2	1	1	9.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Bucky Irving	19	89	4.7	1	1.5
Baker Mayfield	9	68	7.6	0	2.9
Sean Tucker	2	16	8.0	0	0.4
Jalen McMillan	1	6	6.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	9	14	89	0	45%	-1.2
Jalen McMillan	5	6	74	1	19%	6.4
Devin Culp	2	2	36	0	6%	4.6
Payne Durham	2	2	16	1	6%	3.1
Sterling Shepard	1	2	11	0	6%	1.5
Bucky Irving	2	5	-5	0	16%	-3.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Josh Hayes	9	2	0.0	0
Lavonte David	4	5	0.0	1
Zyon McCollum	4	2	0.0	4
J.J. Russell	2	1	0.0	0
Kaevon Merriweather	2	1	0.0	1
YaYa Diaby	2	1	1.0	0
Vita Vea	1	2	1.0	0
Greg Gaines	2	1	0.0	0
Calijah Kancey	1	1	0.0	0
Mike Edwards	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -14.5
Closing total: 44.5
NO moneyline: +675
TB moneyline: -1050

Buccaneers closed -14.5, won by 8 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 46 — over by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 68°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: NO 7 days · TB 7 days
Coaches: Dennis Allen vs Todd Bowles

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.