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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 5, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 18
It turned at Q4 10:49, 4th and 8, on Jalen McMillan — 17.3 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 10:49 · 4th and 8
Jalen McMillan
Buccaneers
(10:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 15-J.McMillan to NO 9 for 33 yards (0-U.Amadi). PENALTY on TB-15-J.McMillan, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NO 9.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27–19. Biggest swing: Q4 10:49, Buccaneers +17.3% win probability on one snap.
17.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Buccaneers won this one — 10 of 16 on third down, against Saints at 3 of 13 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Buccaneers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Saints at 4 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.39 expected points per dropback, against Saints at +0.02 expected points per dropback.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Saints at +0.00 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 24.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 38 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
(10:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 15-J.McMillan to NO 9 for 33 yards (0-U.Amadi). PENALTY on TB-15-J.McMillan, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NO 9.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jalen McMillan's 32-yard touchdown catch with 10:18 left in the 4th put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Jalen McMillan32-yd TD catch32-yard touchdown catchfrom Baker MayfieldLead never changed again+719–2010 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Saintscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Buccaneers ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Saints, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 63 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 63 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Saints 2, Buccaneers 4.
Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NO's blitz rate sent turned over: 22.2% in week 17 against 40.0% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Saints4.7 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +9.8 vs their -5.1 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+1.43× that swing) · 63 snaps
Buccaneers-3.1 ptsright on their number · −3.1 vs their -0.0 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 63 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 91%
Tendencies room →Saints70.2%leaned — passed early · +14.2 vs their 56.0%, and they swing ±13.9 week to week (+1.03× that swing) · 47 early downs
Buccaneers52.2%right on their number · −3.0 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15% to 61%
Tendencies room →Saints13.3%inside their normal wobble · −9.7 vs their 23.0%, and they swing ±14.7 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Buccaneers15.0%right on their number · −4.3 vs their 19.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -52% to 109%
Fourth Down room →Saints50.0%inside their normal wobble · +14.8 vs their 35.2%, and they swing ±28.3 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
Buccaneers0.0%inside their normal wobble · −21.4 vs their 21.4%, and they swing ±28.4 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 91%
Tendencies room →Saints40.0%leaned — sent pressure · +15.9 vs their 24.1%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+1.86× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Buccaneers55.6%inside their normal wobble · +11.7 vs their 43.9%, and they swing ±18.3 week to week (+0.64× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 31%
Tendencies room →Saints2.5%leaned — stayed blocked · −9.5 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−1.35× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Buccaneers13.3%right on their number · −2.1 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
NO's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 40.0%, 15.9 points above their season mean of 24.1% and 1.9 times their own 8.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NO
26/42, 240 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-1.1 expected points added · +1.9% completion over expected
Passing · TB
21/32, 221 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
9.4 expected points added · +2.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Jalen McMillan banked 7.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 21.6 | −1.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/32, 221 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 9 car, 68 yd |
| Jalen McMillanWR · Featured Receiver | 19.0 | +7.8 | 88% | 78% | 19% | 28% | 1 car, 6 yd · 5/6, 74 yd, 1 TD |
| Mike EvansWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.9 | −7.3 | 88% | 78% | 45% | 57% | 9/14, 89 yd |
| Bucky IrvingRB · Bell Cow Back | 16.4 | −3.1 | 72% | 50% | 16% | 0% | 19 car, 89 yd, 1 TD · 2/5, -5 yd |
| Spencer RattlerQB · Starter QB | 14.7 | −1.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/42, 240 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, 11 yd |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 14.0 | +4.0 | 79% | 82% | 18% | 15% | 6/7, 80 yd |
| Dante PettisWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.6 | −1.3 | 30% | 36% | 15% | 19% | 2/6, 16 yd, 1 TD |
| Payne DurhamTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.6 | +4.1 | 81% | 57% | 6% | 6% | 2/2, 16 yd, 1 TD |
| Foster MoreauTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | +1.6 | 79% | 71% | 10% | 4% | 4/4, 31 yd |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Featured Receiver | 6.3 | −7.9 | 70% | 84% | 21% | 34% | 3/8, 33 yd |
| Devin CulpTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | +2.3 | 24% | 28% | 6% | 9% | 2/2, 36 yd |
| Jordan MimsRB | 5.5 | +0.4 | 36% | 42% | 8% | 0% | 2 car, 12 yd · 3/3, 13 yd |
| Cedrick WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | −1.4 | 45% | 38% | 13% | 6% | 3/5, 22 yd |
| Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB | 5.0 | −0.1 | 27% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 8 car, 26 yd · 1/1, 14 yd |
| Jamaal WilliamsRB | 3.2 | −3.2 | 36% | 36% | 3% | 1% | 8 car, 15 yd · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Dallin HolkerTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −1.1 | 21% | 18% | 8% | 10% | 2/3, 11 yd |
| Kevin AustinWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | +1.0 | 55% | 56% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 13 yd |
| Sterling ShepardWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −1.1 | 63% | 60% | 6% | 6% | 1/2, 11 yd |
| Sean TuckerRB | 1.6 | +0.5 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ko KieftTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 16% | 3% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Trey PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 12% | 8% | 0% | — | No touches. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:18) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 15-J.McMillan for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 10:18 · Buccaneers · 1st & 18 at NO 32 · gained 32 · +3.80 EP · +26.8% win probability
166 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 179 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 174. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 94 yards from the TB 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Saints3
Buccaneers0Saints3Buccaneers3Saints6Buccaneers3Saints12Buccaneers3Saints13Buccaneers3Saints13Buccaneers6Saints16Buccaneers6Saints16Buccaneers12Saints16Buccaneers13Saints19Buccaneers13How the play was built
A man in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
Saints19Buccaneers19Saints19Buccaneers20How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Saints19Buccaneers26Saints19Buccaneers27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Saints at Buccaneers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 26/42 | 240 | 1 | 0 | 2 | −1.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Jamaal Williams | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Jordan Mims | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juwan Johnson | 6 | 7 | 80 | 0 | 18% | +6.6 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 8 | 33 | 0 | 21% | −3.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demario Davis | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nephi Sewell | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Harris | 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ugochukwu Amadi |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 21/32 | 221 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +9.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_18_NO_TB
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -14.5, won by 8 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 46 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Spencer Rattler | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | +2.1 |
| Foster Moreau | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 10% | +0.4 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 13% | −3.2 |
| Dante Pettis | 2 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 15% | +0.4 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3% | +3.0 |
| Jordan Mims | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 8% | −0.4 |
| Kevin Austin | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | +0.6 |
| Dallin Holker | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 8% | −1.6 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.3 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Carl Granderson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Howden | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Anfernee Orji | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kool-Aid McKinstry | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alontae Taylor | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Millard Bradford | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 |
| 89 |
| 4.7 |
| 1 |
| +1.5 |
| Baker Mayfield | 9 | 68 | 7.6 | 0 | +2.9 |
| Sean Tucker | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Jalen McMillan | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 9 | 14 | 89 | 0 | 45% | −1.2 |
| Jalen McMillan | 5 | 6 | 74 | 1 | 19% | +6.4 |
| Devin Culp | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 | 6% | +4.6 |
| Payne Durham | 2 | 2 | 16 | 1 | 6% | +3.1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 6% | +1.5 |
| Bucky Irving | 2 | 5 | -5 | 0 | 16% | −3.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hayes | 9 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lavonte David | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zyon McCollum | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 4 |
| J.J. Russell | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaevon Merriweather | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| YaYa Diaby | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vita Vea | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Gaines | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calijah Kancey | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Edwards | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
