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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 5, 2025 · Lincoln Financial Field
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 18
It turned at Q4 10:41, 3rd and 8, on Malik Nabers — 8.8 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
Philadelphia Eagles 20–13. Biggest swing: Q4 10:41, Giants +8.8% win probability on one snap.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 10:41 · 3rd and 8
Malik Nabers
Giants
(10:41) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep right to 1-M.Nabers for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Giants owned this one and still lost it — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Eagles at -0.43 expected points per carry.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Eagles won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Giants at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.17 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.30 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 3 chunk plays, against Eagles at 0 chunk plays.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market saw this game the same way — never more than 4 points apart.
(10:41) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep right to 1-M.Nabers for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Ainias Smith's 15-yard touchdown catch with 6:58 left in the 1st put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Ainias Smith15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Tanner McKeeLead never changed again+70–77 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Giantscategory by categoryEagles
Eagles ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 54 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Eagles’s 67 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Giants 2, Eagles 4.
Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's pass rate over expected, −17.2 pts, is past their previous low of −13.2 pts in week 9 — the lowest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points. · −1.8σ from their own normal
PHI's pass rate over expected, +5.1 pts, is past their previous high of +1.9 pts in week 3 — the highest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
PHI's early-down pass rate turned over: 28.9% in week 17 against 62.7% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.4 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
NYG's play-action rate turned over: 45.8% in week 17 against 20.7% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points. · −0.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Giants-17.2 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −13.6 vs their -3.6 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−1.83× that swing) · 54 snaps
Eagles5.1 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +14.1 vs their -9.0 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.83× that swing) · 67 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 12% to 83%
Tendencies room →Giants52.8%inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 57.8%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.55× that swing) · 36 early downs
Eagles62.7%leaned — passed early · +18.9 vs their 43.8%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (+1.53× that swing) · 51 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 50%
Tendencies room →Giants20.7%right on their number · −3.3 vs their 24.0%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Eagles30.2%inside their normal wobble · +6.4 vs their 23.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.72× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18% to 109%
Fourth Down room →Giants50.0%right on their number · +10.2 vs their 39.8%, and they swing ±22.4 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
Eagles50.0%right on their number · +3.9 vs their 46.1%, and they swing ±24.7 week to week (+0.16× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 60%
Tendencies room →Giants30.2%right on their number · +1.0 vs their 29.2%, and they swing ±12.2 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Eagles17.2%inside their normal wobble · −6.5 vs their 23.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 35%
Tendencies room →Giants16.3%right on their number · +1.4 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Eagles6.9%inside their normal wobble · −6.5 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
NYG's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -17.2 pts, 13.6 points below their season mean of -3.6 pts and 1.8 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Philadelphia Eagles
44 dressed · 11 inactive · 10 never used
Inactive · 11
Dressed, never took a snap · 10
Who moved the needle
Passing · PHI
27/41, 269 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
7.5 expected points added · -2.2% completion over expected
Passing · NYG
22/29, 138 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-8.7 expected points added · +4.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Malik Nabers banked 6.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner McKeeQB · Starter QB | 18.9 | +4.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/41, 269 yd, 2 TD · 3 car, 1 yd |
| Malik NabersWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.4 | +6.6 | 70% | 76% | 29% | 53% | 5/8, 64 yd, 1 TD |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.4 | +0.5 | 94% | 100% | 27% | 40% | 7/11, 94 yd |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.3 | +1.0 | 74% | 83% | 39% | 12% | 10/11, 43 yd |
| Ainias SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.9 | +3.2 | 69% | 72% | 15% | 14% | 1 car, 4 yd · 4/6, 35 yd, 1 TD |
| Will ShipleyRB · Committee Back | 10.7 | −1.1 | 53% | 56% | 10% | 3% | 10 car, 32 yd · 4/4, 35 yd |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.5 | +1.6 | 19% | 21% | 15% | 16% | 4/6, 55 yd |
| Tyrone TracyRB · Committee Back | 8.6 | −1.0 | 60% | 55% | 7% | 0% | 14 car, 59 yd · 2/2, 7 yd |
| Drew LockQB · Starter QB | 7.8 | +1.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/29, 138 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 3 yd |
| E.J. JenkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | +4.7 | 75% | 70% | 2% | 1% | 1/1, 7 yd, 1 TD |
| Johnny WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | −2.0 | 96% | 98% | 12% | 14% | 3/5, 24 yd |
| Kenneth GainwellRB · Committee Back | 4.3 | −8.1 | 49% | 44% | 10% | 6% | 11 car, 14 yd · 2/4, 9 yd |
| Grant CalcaterraTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −2.4 | 34% | 35% | 10% | 5% | 2/4, 10 yd |
| Daniel BellingerTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | +0.6 | 58% | 48% | 7% | 1% | 2/2, 9 yd |
| Devin SingletaryRB | 2.7 | −1.9 | 30% | 31% | 4% | 0% | 7 car, 22 yd · 1/1, -5 yd |
| Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | +1.4 | 49% | 38% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 16 yd |
| Eric GrayRB | 2.0 | +0.4 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.1 | 91% | 86% | 4% | 9% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jalin HyattWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.1 | 34% | 34% | 4% | 29% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:42) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee sacked at PHI 27 for -7 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux).
Q3 6:42 · Eagles · 3rd & 5 at PHI 34 · lost 7 · -2.13 EP · −8.5% win probability
150 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 70 yards from the NYG 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Giants0
Eagles6Giants0Eagles7Giants0Eagles10Giants3Eagles10Giants3Eagles16Giants3Eagles17Giants9Eagles17Giants10Eagles17Giants13Eagles17Giants13Eagles20Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Giants at Eagles, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 22/29 | 138 | 1 | 1 | 0 | −8.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy | 14 | 59 | 4.2 | 0 | −2.3 |
| Devin Singletary | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Dane Belton |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers | 5 | 8 | 64 | 1 | 29% | +0.8 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 10 | 11 | 43 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dyontae Johnson | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Muasau | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Divaad Wilson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner McKee | 27/41 | 269 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +7.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_18_NYG_PHI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 36.5; the game landed 33 — under by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 10 |
| 10.0 |
| 0 |
| +3.1 |
| Eric Gray | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Drew Lock | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | +0.3 |
| 39% |
| −2.1 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 4% | +1.4 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 7% | −0.9 |
| Tyrone Tracy | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | −0.8 |
| Eric Gray | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | +0.0 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.7 |
| Darius Slayton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −2.5 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 | 4% | −1.3 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Brian Burns | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Belton | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Rakeem Nunez-Roches | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ty Summers | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Anthony Johnson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Andru Phillips | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Shipley | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 | −3.4 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 11 | 14 | 1.3 | 0 | −6.1 |
| Ainias Smith | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Tanner McKee | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahan Dotson | 7 | 11 | 94 | 0 | 27% | +4.9 |
| Dallas Goedert | 4 | 6 | 55 | 0 | 15% | +4.1 |
| Will Shipley | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 10% | +2.3 |
| Ainias Smith | 4 | 6 | 35 | 1 | 15% | +0.3 |
| Johnny Wilson | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 12% | +0.1 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 10% | −0.8 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 10% | −0.8 |
| E.J. Jenkins | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 2% | +1.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oren Burks | 8 | 9 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Trotter | 2 | 9 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tristin McCollum | 2 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Davis | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Moro Ojomo | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kelee Ringo | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Avonte Maddox | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Harris | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Rodgers | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Eli Ricks | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
