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2024 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 5, 2025 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
GiantsNew York13
BY 7final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia20
New York Giants 13 at Philadelphia Eagles 20. Final.
Eagles -3 ✓U 36.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 18
Philadelphia Eagles 20, Giants 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 10:41, 3rd and 8, on Malik Nabers — 8.8 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 10:41 · 3rd and 8
Malik Nabers
Giants
(10:41) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep right to 1-M.Nabers for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
30°F
Eagles closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Philadelphia Eagles 20–13. Biggest swing: Q4 10:41, Giants +8.8% win probability on one snap.
8.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Drew LockEaglesQ2 6:58(6:58) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass incomplete deep right to 1-M.Nabers (34-I.Rodgers).
5.6pts
Unnamed on the sheetEaglesQ4 2:00(2:00) (Run formation) ** Injury Update: NYG-28-C.Flott has returned to the game. PENALTY on NYG-55-C.Basham, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 41 - No Play.
5.7pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Giants owned this one and still lost it — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Eagles at -0.43 expected points per carry.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Eagles won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Giants at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.17 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.30 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 3 chunk plays, against Eagles at 0 chunk plays.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
(10:41) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep right to 1-M.Nabers for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −8.8 for EaglesExpected points −5.46 for EaglesModel and market agree here.play 124
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 10:41PHI +9% win prob(10:41) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep right to 1-M.Nabers for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:00PHI +6% win prob(2:00) (Run formation) ** Injury Update: NYG-28-C.Flott has returned to the game. PENALTY on NYG-55-C.Basham, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 41 - No Play.
2nd · 6:58NYG +6% win prob(6:58) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass incomplete deep right to 1-M.Nabers (34-I.Rodgers).
2nd · 5:30PHI +5% win prob(5:30) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass deep right to 83-J.Dotson ran ob at PHI 49 for 19 yards (24-D.Belton).
3rd · 13:25NYG +5% win prob(13:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short left to 82-A.Smith (39-D.Wilson).
4th · 3:00PHI +5% win prob(3:00) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short middle to 14-K.Gainwell to NYG 49 for 3 yards (54-D.Johnson; 23-A.Johnson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ainias Smith's 15-yard touchdown catch with 6:58 left in the 1st put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
4th7:26Graham Gano·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+313–17
4th0:51Jake Elliott·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap R.Lovato+313–20
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryEagles
Giants3–6Eagles
238Total yards304
4.4Yards per play4.5
39%Success rate40%
29%Third-down rate21%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays0
10First downs18
0Sacks taken2
1Turnovers0
The read
Eagles ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.12Giants: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.04Eagles: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.30Giants: −0.30 expected points added per play
+0.17Eagles: +0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.09Giants: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.43Eagles: −0.43 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 54 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Eagles’s 67 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Giants 2, Eagles 4.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 18Against their seasonOver Expected
NYG's pass rate over expected, −17.2 pts, is past their previous low of −13.2 pts in week 9 — the lowest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
high through week 18Against their seasonOver Expected
PHI's pass rate over expected, +5.1 pts, is past their previous high of +1.9 pts in week 3 — the highest of their 17 charted games through week 18.
A 4.1-swing turn from week 17.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
PHI's early-down pass rate turned over: 28.9% in week 17 against 62.7% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.4 points.
NYG's play-action rate turned over: 45.8% in week 17 against 20.7% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +1.4 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Eagles6.9%
inside their normal wobble · −6.5 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
NoteNYG's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -17.2 pts, 13.6 points below their season mean of -3.6 pts and 1.8 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
63Jake KubasG · Every snap100%53 snaps
72Jermaine EluemunorT · Every snap100%53 snaps
74Greg Van RotenG · Every snap100%53 snaps
2Drew LockQB · Every snap100%53 snaps
79Tyre PhillipsT · Every snap100%53 snaps
86Darius SlaytonWR · Full-time91%48 snaps
17Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation74%39 snaps
1Malik NabersWR · Heavy rotation70%37 snaps
29Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB · Heavy rotation60%32 snaps
82Daniel BellingerTE · Heavy rotation58%31 snaps
75Joshua EzeuduG · Heavy rotation53%28 snaps
85Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational49%26 snaps
64Aaron StinnieG · Rotational47%25 snaps
13Jalin HyattWR · Rotational34%18 snaps
26Devin SingletaryRB · Rotational30%16 snaps
89Greg DulcichTE · Situational19%10 snaps
20Eric GrayRB · Situational11%6 snaps
70Chris HubbardT · Situational4%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
John Michael SchmitzCGreg StromanCBMicah McFaddenMLBTim BoyleQBDante MillerRBEvan NealTDee WilliamsWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.McKee sacked−9% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:42) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee sacked at PHI 27 for -7 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux).
Q3 6:42 · Eagles · 3rd & 5 at PHI 34 · lost 7 · -2.13 EP · −8.5% win probability
150 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 70 yards from the NYG 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
40%
Yards
541
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.1071%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.2761%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.2461%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.1542%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.3929%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Giants0 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Eagles 49
Giants0Eagles6
Giants0Eagles7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Eagles 49 to the Giants 15
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 40 to the Giants 43
Drive ended11 plays, from the Eagles 14 to the Giants 36
2nd quarter1 plays
1st quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
2nd quarter46 plays
No good3 plays, from the Giants 27 to the Giants 21
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Giants 29 to the Eagles 34
Giants0Eagles10
Field goal15 plays, from the Eagles 35 to the Giants 6
The period ended6 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Giants 37
Punt9 plays, from the Eagles 28 to the Giants 45
3rd quarter31 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Giants 43 to the Giants 35
Giants3Eagles10
Field goal10 plays, from the Giants 35 to the Eagles 7
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 29 to the Eagles 34
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 14 to the Giants 19
The period ended7 plays, from the Eagles 39 to the Giants 14
4th quarter52 plays
Giants3Eagles16
Giants3Eagles17
Touchdown2 plays
Giants9Eagles17
Giants10Eagles17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Eagles 45
Punt5 plays
Giants13Eagles17
Field goal6 plays, from the Eagles 38 to the Eagles 35
Giants13Eagles20
Field goal23 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Giants 14
Intercepted4 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Giants 38
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
