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Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Seahawks153 of 161 plays carry both curves
(:21) (Shotgun) 11-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short left to 88-J.Whittington.
Swing −25.3 for RamsExpected points −2.85 for RamsThe model had Rams 10 points higher than the market did.play 157
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:21SEA +25% win prob(:21) (Shotgun) 11-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short left to 88-J.Whittington.
4th · 9:49LA +17% win prob(9:49) (Shotgun) 11-J.Garoppolo pass deep left to 88-J.Whittington pushed ob at SEA 22 for 50 yards (20-J.Love).
4th · 2:35LA +13% win prob(2:35) (Shotgun) 11-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to SEA 49 for 17 yards (13-E.Jones; 2-R.Jenkins) [90-Ja.Reed].
4th · 3:24LA +13% win prob(3:24) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 87-N.Fant for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 12:48LA +13% win prob(12:48) (Shotgun) 11-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 18-T.Johnson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:34SEA +10% win prob(:34) (Shotgun) 11-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 5-T.Atwell to SEA 9 for 5 yards (28-N.Pritchett).
4th · 3:29
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Noah Fant's 16-yard touchdown catch with 3:24 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th12:48Tyler Johnson·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy Garoppolofrom Jimmy Garoppolo · two-point no good+624–22
4th7:33Joshua Karty·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+324–25
4th3:24Noah Fant·16-yd TD catch16-yard touchdown catchfrom Geno Smithfrom Geno Smith · two-point no goodLead never changed again+630–25
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryRams
Seahawks7–2Rams
337Total yards403
6.4Yards per play6.1
53%Success rate44%
55%Third-down rate36%
4Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays6
19First downs20
2Sacks taken3
1Turnovers2
The read
Seahawks ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.24Seahawks: +0.24 expected points added per play
+0.02Rams: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.33Seahawks: +0.33 expected points added per play
+0.04Rams: +0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.13Seahawks: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.02Rams: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 53 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Rams’s 66 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 4, Rams 5.
NoteRams outgained Seahawks 403-337 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LA's play-action rate, 45.7%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 1.5 points clear of the next team along.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · +2.0 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Rams10.0%
right on their number · −1.6 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NoteSEA's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 36.7%, 17.3 points above their season mean of 19.4% and 1.6 times their own 10.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
67Charles CrossT · Every snap100%55 snaps
63Sataoa LaumeaT · Every snap100%55 snaps
65Michael JerrellT · Every snap100%55 snaps
70Laken TomlinsonG · Every snap100%55 snaps
7Geno SmithQB · Every snap100%55 snaps
51Olu OluwatimiC · Every snap100%55 snaps
11Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Full-time95%52 snaps
14DK MetcalfWR · Full-time89%49 snaps
26Zach CharbonnetRB · Heavy rotation76%42 snaps
87Noah FantTE · Heavy rotation64%35 snaps
88AJ BarnerTE · Heavy rotation56%31 snaps
16Tyler LockettWR · Heavy rotation53%29 snaps
19Jake BoboWR · Rotational31%17 snaps
25Kenny McIntoshRB · Situational24%13 snaps
86Pharaoh BrownTE · Situational11%6 snaps
83Dareke YoungWR · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Quinton BohannaDTPatrick O'ConnellILBBrandon PiliNTJaren HallQBTyler MabryTECody WhiteWRJohn Rhys PlumleeWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Sam HowellQB
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 5 never used
73Steve AvilaG · Every snap100%66 snaps
63Dylan McMahonC · Every snap100%66 snaps
71Warren McClendon Jr.T · Every snap100%66 snaps
72Jonah JacksonC · Every snap100%66 snaps
70Joe NoteboomT · Every snap100%66 snaps
11Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
15Demarcus RobinsonWR · Full-time94%62 snaps
20Ronnie RiversRB · Heavy rotation79%52 snaps
18Tyler JohnsonWR · Heavy rotation76%50 snaps
5Tutu AtwellWR · Heavy rotation55%36 snaps
88Jordan WhittingtonWR · Rotational47%31 snaps
89Tyler HigbeeTE · Rotational41%27 snaps
86Colby ParkinsonTE · Rotational39%26 snaps
87Davis AllenTE · Rotational30%20 snaps
22Blake CorumRB · Situational18%12 snaps
84Hunter LongTE · Situational11%7 snaps
19Xavier SmithWR · Situational8%5 snaps
32Cody SchraderRB · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Kevin DotsonGMatthew StaffordQBKyren WilliamsRBAlaric JacksonTRob HavensteinTCooper KuppWRPuka NacuaWR
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Garoppolo pass−34% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:21) (Shotgun) 11-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short left to 88-J.Whittington.
Q4 0:21 · Rams · 4th & 3 at SEA 9 · gained nothing · -2.85 EP · −33.6% win probability
151 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 161 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 78 yards from the LA 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
161 of 161 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
161
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
51%
Yards
739
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52+0.0167%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.2256%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.0771%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.2154%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Seahawks 46
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 6 to the Seahawks 25
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 16 to the Rams 21
Seahawks6Rams0
Seahawks7Rams0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Seahawks 45 to the Rams 4
Seahawks7Rams3
Field goal12 plays, from the Rams 37 to the Seahawks 19
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter41 plays
Seahawks13Rams3
Seahawks14Rams3
Touchdown6 plays, from the Seahawks 39 to the Rams 20
Seahawks14Rams9
Seahawks14Rams10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Rams 22 to the Seahawks 6
Seahawks17Rams10
Field goal10 plays, from the Seahawks 27 to the Rams 33
Intercepted4 plays, from the Rams 45 to the Rams 48
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 45 to the Rams 46
Seahawks17Rams13
Field goal5 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Seahawks 40
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Seahawks17Rams16
Field goal9 plays, from the Rams 21 to the Seahawks 31
How the play was built
A trick play, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Seahawks23Rams16
Seahawks24Rams16
Touchdown12 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Rams 2
The period ended7 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Seahawks 47
4th quarter46 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Seahawks24Rams22
Touchdown5 plays, from the Seahawks 23 to the Seahawks 4
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Seahawks 39
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Seahawks24Rams25
Field goal7 plays, from the Rams 22 to the Seahawks 20
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Seahawks30Rams25
Touchdown11 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Rams 16
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
The period ended16 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Seahawks 9
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Seahawks -7.5
Closing total
38.5
Seahawks moneyline
-360
Rams moneyline
+285
Seahawks closed -7.5, won by 5 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 38.5; the game landed 55 — over by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Seahawks 10 days · Rams 8 days
Coaches
Mike Macdonald vs Sean McVay
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
LA +9% win prob
(3:29) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 16-T.Lockett ran ob at LA 16 for 11 yards (30-J.Wallace).
3rd · 7:42LA +9% win prob(7:42) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 30 for no gain. Lateral to 26-Z.Charbonnet to LA 38 for 32 yards (97-M.Hoecht).
