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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:05 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 5, 2025 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 18
It turned at Q4 0:21, 4th and 3, on Jimmy Garoppolo — 25.3 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Seattle Seahawks 30–25. Biggest swing: Q4 0:21, Seahawks +25.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:21 · 4th and 3
Jimmy Garoppolo
Seahawks
(:21) (Shotgun) 11-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short left to 88-J.Whittington.
25.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Seahawks won this one — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Rams at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Seahawks won this one — 6 of 11 on third down, against Rams at 5 of 14 on third down.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Seahawks won this one — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Rams at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — +0.24 expected points per snap, against Rams at +0.02 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 17.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
(:21) (Shotgun) 11-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short left to 88-J.Whittington.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Noah Fant's 16-yard touchdown catch with 3:24 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Tyler Johnson4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy Garoppolo · two-point no good+624–22
Noah Fant16-yd TD catch16-yard touchdown catchfrom Geno Smith · two-point no goodLead never changed again+630–2511 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Seahawkscategory by categoryRams
Seahawks ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 53 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Rams’s 66 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 4, Rams 5.
Rams outgained Seahawks 403-337 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
LA's play-action rate, 45.7%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 18 — 1.5 points clear of the next team along.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Seahawks-1.1 ptsright on their number · −2.8 vs their 1.7 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 52 snaps
Rams4.8 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +8.8 vs their -4.0 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+1.32× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 94%
Tendencies room →Seahawks46.3%leaned — ran early · −15.1 vs their 61.4%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (−1.22× that swing) · 41 early downs
Rams62.5%inside their normal wobble · +9.2 vs their 53.3%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 48 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 58%
Tendencies room →Seahawks36.7%leaned — faked the run · +17.3 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (+1.63× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Rams45.7%leaned — faked the run · +14.9 vs their 30.8%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+1.48× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36% to 116%
Fourth Down room →Seahawks—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 39.6%.
Rams50.0%inside their normal wobble · +18.4 vs their 31.6%, and they swing ±25.7 week to week (+0.71× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 59%
Tendencies room →Seahawks26.1%right on their number · −0.5 vs their 26.6%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Rams33.3%inside their normal wobble · +5.5 vs their 27.8%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 36%
Tendencies room →Seahawks19.6%right on their number · +2.0 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Rams10.0%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
SEA's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 36.7%, 17.3 points above their season mean of 19.4% and 1.6 times their own 10.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 5 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 5
Who moved the needle
Passing · LA
27/41, 334 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
2.1 expected points added · -3.1% completion over expected
Passing · SEA
20/27, 223 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
9.8 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected
Receiving · LA
3/4 for 86 yds, 0 TD
10% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added
Receiving · LA
3/6 for 72 yds, 0 TD
15% of team targets · 2.0 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Geno Smith banked 8.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 26.3 | +8.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/27, 223 yd, 4 TD · 2 car, 14 yd |
| Noah FantTE · Featured Receiver | 17.3 | +6.3 | 64% | 83% | 22% | 17% | 5/6, 63 yd, 1 TD |
| A.J. BarnerTE · Featured Receiver | 14.4 | +4.6 | 56% | 43% | 19% | 3% | 5/5, 34 yd, 1 TD |
| DK MetcalfWR · Featured Receiver | 14.3 | +2.5 | 89% | 93% | 19% | 46% | 3/5, 53 yd, 1 TD |
| Zach CharbonnetRB · Committee Back | 9.1 | −0.5 | 76% | 87% | 0% | — | 14 car, 59 yd |
| Jake BoboWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.4 | +4.1 | 31% | 27% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 4 yd, 1 TD |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Featured Receiver | 5.3 | −3.2 | 95% | 93% | 19% | 0% | 1 car, 4 yd · 4/5, 9 yd |
| Kenny McIntoshRB | 4.9 | −0.9 | 24% | 13% | 4% | 0% | 7 car, 49 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Tyler LockettWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.8 | −2.9 | 53% | 57% | 15% | 36% | 2/4, 28 yd |
| Jaelon DardenWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:21) (Shotgun) 11-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short left to 88-J.Whittington.
Q4 0:21 · Rams · 4th & 3 at SEA 9 · gained nothing · -2.85 EP · −33.6% win probability
151 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 161 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 78 yards from the LA 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Seahawks6
Rams0Seahawks7Rams0Seahawks7Rams3Seahawks13Rams3Seahawks14Rams3Seahawks14Rams9Seahawks14Rams10Seahawks17Rams10Seahawks17Rams13How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Seahawks17Rams16How the play was built
A trick play, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Seahawks23Rams16Seahawks24Rams16How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket.
Seahawks24Rams22How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Seahawks24Rams25How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Seahawks30Rams25How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Seahawks at Rams, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 20/27 | 223 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +9.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Charbonnet | 14 | 59 | 4.2 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Kenny McIntosh | 7 | 49 | 7.0 | 0 | +2.8 |
| Geno Smith |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Fant | 5 | 6 | 63 | 1 | 22% | +4.0 |
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 5 | 53 | 1 | 19% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Witherspoon | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Tyrice Knight | 3 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Ernest Jones |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 27/41 | 334 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +2.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_18_SEA_LA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Seahawks closed -7.5, won by 5 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 38.5; the game landed 55 — over by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2 |
| 14 |
| 7.0 |
| 0 |
| +1.2 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| +3.4 |
| A.J. Barner | 5 | 5 | 34 | 1 | 19% | +3.4 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 15% | +0.8 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 4 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 19% | +1.0 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4% | +1.4 |
| Kenny McIntosh | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| 1 |
| 6 |
| 0.5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Coby Bryant | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Love | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Nehemiah Pritchett | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Williams | 4 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Artie Burns | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tre Brown | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Boye Mafe | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 12 | 48 | 4.0 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Jordan Whittington | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 | +3.1 |
| Blake Corum | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Xavier Smith | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Cody Schrader | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Whittington | 3 | 4 | 86 | 0 | 10% | +3.5 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 3 | 6 | 72 | 0 | 15% | +2.0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 5 | 7 | 46 | 1 | 18% | +3.9 |
| Tutu Atwell | 5 | 8 | 37 | 0 | 20% | −1.6 |
| Tyler Johnson | 4 | 7 | 35 | 1 | 18% | −1.4 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 13% | +0.1 |
| Blake Corum | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Cody Schrader | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.4 |
| Colby Parkinson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Hummel | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Wallace | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen McCollough | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Desjuan Johnson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Forbes | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kamren Kinchens | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Hoecht | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Omar Speights | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keir Thomas | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Brown | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
