2024 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 5, 2025 · State Farm Stadium

San Francisco 49ers

Arizona CardinalsWinner

ARI -4.5 ✓O 42.5 ✓DomeCardinals closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 23.

Arizona Cardinals 47–24 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 4:58, ARI +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 4:58SF 23 — ARI 26SF ball · 1st & 10ARI 85%

(4:58) 5-J.Dobbs pass deep left to 44-K.Juszczyk for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 4:58ARI +15% win prob(4:58) 5-J.Dobbs pass deep left to 44-K.Juszczyk for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:21ARI +13% win prob(:21) (Shotgun) 5-J.Dobbs pass short middle to 14-R.Pearsall for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 3:45SF +11% win prob(3:45) 4-J.Moody 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.
Q2 · 5:51ARI +10% win prob(5:51) 5-J.Dobbs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 12:53SF Field goal
(12:53) 4-J.Moody 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.
Score after this play: SF 3 — ARI 0
Q1 · 1:01ARI Field goal
(1:01) 38-C.Ryland 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy.
Score after this play: SF 3 — ARI 3
Q2 · 13:03ARI Touchdown
(13:03) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 4-G.Dortch for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 3 — ARI 10
Q2 · 5:51SF Touchdown
(5:51) 5-J.Dobbs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 10 — ARI 10
Q2 · 1:55ARI Touchdown
(1:55) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 85-T.McBride for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 10 — ARI 17
Q2 · 0:21SF Touchdown
(:21) (Shotgun) 5-J.Dobbs pass short middle to 14-R.Pearsall for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 17 — ARI 17
Q2 · 0:02ARI Field goal
(:02) 38-C.Ryland 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy.
Score after this play: SF 17 — ARI 20
Q3 · 8:32ARI Touchdown
(8:32) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 4-G.Dortch for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: SF 17 — ARI 26
Q3 · 4:58SF Touchdown
(4:58) 5-J.Dobbs pass deep left to 44-K.Juszczyk for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 24 — ARI 26
Q4 · 14:21ARI Touchdown
(14:21) (Shotgun) 22-M.Carter left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 24 — ARI 33
Q4 · 5:52ARI Touchdown
(5:52) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 18-M.Harrison for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 24 — ARI 40
Q4 · 1:57ARI Touchdown
(1:57) 37-T.Jones up the middle for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 24 — ARI 47

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Cardinals
Offensive plays	71	63
Total yards	437 (edge)	393
Yards per play	6.2	6.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.01	0.25 (edge)
Success rate	48%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	65%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05	0.25 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06	0.25 (edge)
Third downs	5/13 (edge)	4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	25 (edge)	23
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

49ers outgained Cardinals 437–393 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Joshua DobbsQB

29/43, 326 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

2.8 expected points added · -0.3% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

25/35, 242 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

8.0 expected points added · +8.9% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Patrick TaylorRB

17 att, 109 yds, 0 TD

2.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

Michael CarterRB

17 att, 43 yds, 1 TD

-3.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Ricky PearsallWR

6/8 for 69 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Trey McBrideTE

7/11 for 65 yds, 1 TD

34% of team targets · 0.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 30	7	37	2:12	Field goal +3
2	ARI	ARI 30	7	15	2:35	Punt
3	SF	SF 8	12	73	6:32	Missed field goal
4	ARI	ARI 37	8	25	2:45	Field goal +3
5	SF	SF 30	4	2	0:45	Interception
6	ARI	SF 45	8	40	2:16	Touchdown +7
7	SF	SF 30	5	9	1:38	Punt
8	ARI	ARI 18	4	9	1:24	Punt
9	SF	SF 26	9	79	4:10	Touchdown +7
10	ARI	ARI 30	10	67	3:52	Touchdown +7
11	SF	SF 30	12	70	1:35	Touchdown +7
12	ARI	ARI 30	5	39	0:16	Field goal +3
13	ARI	ARI 30	5	8	1:23	Punt
14	SF	SF 24	4	-8	1:56	Punt
15	ARI	SF 49	7	42	3:13	Touchdown +6
16	SF	SF 30	9	80	3:39	Touchdown +7
17	ARI	ARI 30	12	70	5:33	Touchdown +7
18	SF	SF 18	10	55	5:20	Fumble
19	ARI	ARI 27	4	6	1:45	Punt
20	SF	SF 34	3	0	0:33	Defensive touchdown
21	ARI	SF 39	3	15	0:51	Touchdown +7
22	SF	SF 30	9	27	1:44	Turnover on downs
23	ARI	ARI 43	6	57	2:16	Touchdown +7
24	SF	SF 30	4	13	1:47	End of game

12 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 80 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joshua Dobbs	29/43	326	2	2	2	2.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Patrick Taylor	17	109	6.4	0	2.6
Joshua Dobbs	8	17	2.1	1	-5.1
Jacob Cowing	1	7	7.0	0	0.4
Isaac Guerendo	2	5	2.5	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ricky Pearsall	6	8	69	1	19%	3.5
Chris Conley	4	4	59	0	10%	5.2
Jauan Jennings	7	10	52	0	24%	-1.6
Kyle Juszczyk	2	3	49	1	7%	3.5
Jacob Cowing	2	2	30	0	5%	2.9
George Kittle	2	3	27	0	7%	0.3
Eric Saubert	4	5	17	0	12%	-1.1
Patrick Taylor	1	4	12	0	10%	-4.0
Trent Taylor	1	1	11	0	2%	0.5
Brayden Willis	0	2	0	0	5%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Fred Warner	4	3	0
Dee Winters	3	3	0
Nick McCloud	2	3	0
Ji'Ayir Brown	2	3	1
Talanoa Hufanga	4	1	0
Sam Okuayinonu	2	2	0
Renardo Green	2	1	3
Tashaun Gipson	3	0	0
Leonard Floyd	2	1	0
Charvarius Ward	3	0	0

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	25/35	242	4	0	0	8.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Tony Jones	4	55	13.8	1	2.9
Michael Carter	17	43	2.5	1	-3.3
Kyler Murray	3	22	7.3	0	1.7
DeeJay Dallas	1	22	22.0	0	4.1
Greg Dortch	1	7	7.0	0	0.3
Clayton Tune	1	2	2.0	0	2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Trey McBride	7	11	65	1	34%	0.1
Marvin Harrison	5	6	63	1	19%	5.3
Greg Dortch	4	4	47	2	13%	6.9
Zay Jones	4	5	46	0	16%	0.7
Michael Carter	4	4	16	0	13%	-0.2
DeeJay Dallas	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.2
Xavier Weaver	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jalen Thompson	5	5	0.0	0	0
Budda Baker	4	5	0.0	0	0
Kyzir White	4	5	0.0	0	1
Kei'Trel Clark	2	3	0.0	1	1
Starling Thomas	1	3	0.0	0	0
Garrett Williams	3	1	0.0	0	1
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson	2	2	0.0	0	0
Julian Okwara	2	1	1.0	0	0
Dante Stills	2	1	0.0	0	0
Max Melton	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ARI -4.5
Closing total: 42.5
SF moneyline: +160
ARI moneyline: -192

Cardinals closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 23.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 71 — over by 28.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: SF 6 days · ARI 8 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Jonathan Gannon

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.