For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2024 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 5, 2025 · State Farm Stadium
Final
49ersSan Francisco24
BY 23final margin
CardinalsArizona47
San Francisco 49ers 24 at Arizona Cardinals 47. Final.
Cardinals -4.5 ✓O 42.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 18
Arizona Cardinals 47, 49ers 24 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 4:58, 1st and 10, on Kyle Juszczyk — 14.5 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 4:58 · 1st and 10
Kyle Juszczyk
49ers
(4:58) 5-J.Dobbs pass deep left to 44-K.Juszczyk for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Cardinals closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 23.
Arizona Cardinals 47–24 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 4:58, 49ers +14.5% win probability on one snap.
14.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jake MoodyCardinalsQ1 3:45(3:45) 4-J.Moody 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.
11.3pts
Ricky Pearsall49ersQ2 0:21(:21) (Shotgun) 5-J.Dobbs pass short middle to 14-R.Pearsall for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.2pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Cardinals won this one — no giveaways, against 49ers at 3 giveaways.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cardinals won this one — +0.25 expected points per carry, against 49ers at -0.06 expected points per carry.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cardinals won this one — +0.25 expected points per snap, against 49ers at +0.01 expected points per snap.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 6 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on 49ers179 of 188 plays carry both curves
(4:58) 5-J.Dobbs pass deep left to 44-K.Juszczyk for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −14.5 for CardinalsExpected points −3.42 for CardinalsThe model had 49ers 7 points higher than the market did.play 130
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 4:58ARI +15% win prob(4:58) 5-J.Dobbs pass deep left to 44-K.Juszczyk for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:21ARI +13% win prob(:21) (Shotgun) 5-J.Dobbs pass short middle to 14-R.Pearsall for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 3:45SF +11% win prob(3:45) 4-J.Moody 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.
2nd · 5:51ARI +10% win prob(5:51) 5-J.Dobbs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:33ARI +10% win prob(2:33) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 20-D.Dallas. 20-D.Dallas left guard to SF 35 for 22 yards (22-I.Yiadom).
2nd · 13:03ARI +9% win prob(13:03) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 4-G.Dortch for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:30ARI +8% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chad Ryland's 49-yard field goal with 0:02 left in the 2nd put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:53Jake Moody·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap T.Pepper+33–0
1st1:01Chad Ryland·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap A.Brewer+33–3
Cardinals ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.0149ers: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.25Cardinals: +0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.0549ers: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.25Cardinals: +0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.0649ers: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.25Cardinals: +0.25 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 71 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 63 at 57%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 4, Cardinals 6.
Note49ers outgained Cardinals 437-393 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's pass rate over expected turned over: +9.1 pts in week 17 against −6.0 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
71 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 16 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.2 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.09× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Cardinals8.7%
inside their normal wobble · −3.3 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
NoteSF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.6%, 8.2 points below their season mean of 13.8% and 1.1 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
63Nick ZakeljG · Every snap100%76 snaps
77Dominick PuniG · Every snap100%76 snaps
5Joshua DobbsQB · Every snap100%76 snaps
64Jake BrendelC · Full-time96%73 snaps
14Ricky PearsallWR · Full-time92%70 snaps
32Patrick TaylorRB · Full-time84%64 snaps
68Colton McKivitzT · Full-time82%62 snaps
75Charlie HeckT · Heavy rotation72%55 snaps
19Jacob CowingWR · Heavy rotation66%50 snaps
82Eric SaubertTE · Heavy rotation64%49 snaps
18Chris ConleyWR · Heavy rotation50%38 snaps
62Austen PleasantsT · Rotational46%35 snaps
44Kyle JuszczykFB · Rotational42%32 snaps
15Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational33%25 snaps
85George KittleTE · Rotational29%22 snaps
9Brayden WillisTE · Situational17%13 snaps
81Trent TaylorWR · Situational16%12 snaps
31Isaac GuerendoRB · Situational5%4 snaps
61Matt HennessyC · Situational4%3 snaps
88Jake TongesTE · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Deommodore LenoirCBTre AveryCBRobert Beal Jr.DEKhalil DavisDTBrock PurdyQBIsrael AbanikandaRBDeebo Samuel Sr.WR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Drake NugentCBrandon AllenQB
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 7 inactive
74Isaiah AdamsG · Every snap100%65 snaps
75Christian JonesT · Every snap100%65 snaps
68Kelvin BeachumT · Full-time92%60 snaps
62Evan BrownC · Full-time92%60 snaps
72Hjalte FroholdtC · Full-time92%60 snaps
1Kyler MurrayQB · Full-time92%60 snaps
85Trey McBrideTE · Full-time89%58 snaps
22Michael CarterRB · Heavy rotation77%50 snaps
18Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · Heavy rotation74%48 snaps
17Zay JonesWR · Heavy rotation58%38 snaps
84Elijah HigginsTE · Rotational48%31 snaps
87Tip ReimanTE · Rotational45%29 snaps
4Greg DortchWR · Rotational45%29 snaps
89Xavier WeaverWR · Rotational25%16 snaps
0Zach PascalWR · Situational17%11 snaps
20DeeJay DallasRB · Situational15%10 snaps
37Tony JonesRB · Situational8%5 snaps
63Trystan ColonC · Situational8%5 snaps
59Jon Gaines IIG · Situational8%5 snaps
50Nick LeverettG · Situational8%5 snaps
15Clayton TuneQB · Situational8%5 snaps
Inactive · 7
Vi JonesILBBenton WhitleyOLBVictor DimukejeOLBJammie RobinsonSSLuke TenutaTTravis VokolekTEMichael WilsonWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
DeeJay Dallas+14% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(2:33) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 20-D.Dallas. 20-D.Dallas left guard to SF 35 for 22 yards (22-I.Yiadom).
Q1 2:33 · Cardinals · 4th & 4 at ARI 43 · gained 22 · +4.07 EP · +13.5% win probability
177 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 188 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 183. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 74 yards from the SF 26 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
188 of 188 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
188
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
51%
Yards
829
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.2567%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR29+0.2652%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21+0.1481%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR20+0.2455%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10+0.1630%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.0250%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Cardinals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
49ers3Cardinals0
Field goal7 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Cardinals 33
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Cardinals 45
No good14 plays, from the 49ers 8 to the Cardinals 25
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, a trick play, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne free safety, two inside linebackers, one long snapper, one outside linebacker, one punter, one back, one strong safety, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and three backsIn the boxEight defenders
49ers3Cardinals3
Field goal9 plays, from the Cardinals 37 to the 49ers 33
Intercepted4 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the 49ers 32
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter60 plays
49ers3Cardinals9
49ers3Cardinals10
Touchdown7 plays, from the 49ers 40 to the 49ers 23
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the 49ers 39
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 18 to the Cardinals 27
49ers9Cardinals10
49ers10Cardinals10
Touchdown10 plays, from the 49ers 26 to the Cardinals 1
49ers10Cardinals16
49ers10Cardinals17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the 49ers 2
49ers16Cardinals17
49ers17Cardinals17
Touchdown14 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Cardinals 6
49ers17Cardinals20
Field goal8 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the 49ers 31
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Cardinals 38
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the 49ers 28
49ers17Cardinals26
Touchdown9 plays, from the 49ers 49 to the 49ers 2
49ers23Cardinals26
49ers24Cardinals26
Touchdown9 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Cardinals 36
The period ended10 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the 49ers 15
4th quarter47 plays
49ers24Cardinals32
49ers24Cardinals33
Touchdown3 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defenders
Fumble lost10 plays, from the 49ers 18 to the Cardinals 20
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 27 to the Cardinals 33
Intercepted3 plays
49ers24Cardinals39
49ers24Cardinals40
Touchdown4 plays, from the 49ers 39 to the 49ers 12
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Cardinals 43
49ers24Cardinals46
49ers24Cardinals47
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cardinals 43 to the 49ers 46
The period ended5 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the 49ers 43
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
