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2024 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 5, 2025 · AT&T Stadium
23
19
Washington Commanders 23–19. Biggest swing: Q4 0:33, DAL +33% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(:33) (Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota left tackle to DAL 16 for 33 yards (28-M.Hooker).
How the points landed
(8:24) 17-B.Aubrey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Score after this play: WAS 0 — DAL 3(12:45) 17-B.Aubrey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. PENALTY on WAS-94-D.Payne, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Score after this play: WAS 0 — DAL 6(4:44) 47-Z.Gonzalez 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Score after this play: WAS 3 — DAL 6(8:55) 17-B.Aubrey 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Score after this play: WAS 3 — DAL 9(5:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 10 — DAL 9(13:55) 17-B.Aubrey 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Score after this play: WAS 10 — DAL 12(11:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: WAS 16 — DAL 12(7:06) (Shotgun) 23-R.Dowdle left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 16 — DAL 19(:06) (Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 23 — DAL 19Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Commanders | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 54 | 75 |
| Total yards | 270 | 378 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.0 | 5.0 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.09 (edge) | -0.04 |
| Success rate | 48% (edge) | 41% |
| Dropback rate | 74% | 49% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.00 (edge) | -0.03 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.34 (edge) | -0.05 |
| Third downs | 6/13 (edge) | 7/17 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 | 7 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 18 | 21 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 6 | 2 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Who moved the needle
Passing · DAL
20/34, 244 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-2.6 expected points added · -8.7% completion over expected
Passing · WAS
15/18, 161 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
10.3 expected points added · +23.5% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | WAS 30 | 5 | -2 | 2:12 | Punt | |
| 2 | DAL | DAL 9 | 8 | 84 | 4:28 | Field goal +3 | |
| 3 | WAS | WAS 30 | 8 | 17 | 3:21 | Punt | |
| 4 | DAL | DAL 10 | 4 | 12 | 1:34 | Punt | |
| 5 | WAS | WAS 28 | 4 | 5 | 0:52 | Punt | |
| 6 | DAL | DAL 19 | 7 | 19 | 2:48 | Punt | |
| 7 | DAL | WAS 22 | 4 | -1 | 2:04 | Field goal +3 | |
| 8 | WAS | WAS 25 | 6 | 11 | 2:13 | Punt | |
| 9 | DAL | DAL 25 | 6 | 8 | 2:49 | Punt | |
| 10 | WAS | WAS 37 | 9 | 34 | 2:59 | Field goal +3 | |
| 11 | DAL | DAL 30 | 16 | 68 | 4:23 | Turnover on downs | |
| 12 | WAS | WAS 2 | 1 | 0 | 0:17 | End of half | |
| 13 | DAL | DAL 30 | 13 | 53 | 6:08 | Field goal +3 | |
| 14 | WAS | WAS 30 | 10 | 70 | 3:45 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 15 | DAL | DAL 30 | 16 | 76 | 6:14 | Field goal +3 | |
| 16 | WAS | WAS 30 | 10 | 70 | 2:35 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 17 | DAL | DAL 30 | 10 | 50 | 4:16 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 18 | WAS | WAS 30 | 5 | -16 | 1:28 | Punt | |
| 19 | DAL | DAL 44 | 4 | 9 | 2:16 | Punt | |
| 20 | WAS | WAS 9 | 12 | 81 | 3:15 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 21 | DAL | — | 1 | 0 | 0:03 | End of game |
9 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 84 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a field goal.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 15/18 | 161 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10.3 |
| Jayden Daniels | 6/12 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -11.4 |
| Dyami Brown | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 5 | 56 | 11.2 | 1 | 4.5 |
| Jayden Daniels | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 | 2.9 |
| Austin Ekeler | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Brian Robinson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 8 | 12 | 62 | 1 | 40% | 2.7 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 5 | 51 | 0 | 17% | 2.4 |
| Zach Ertz | 5 | 5 | 44 | 1 | 17% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Chinn | 8 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Sainristil | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Frankie Luvu | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Wagner |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Lance | 20/34 | 244 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 22 | 72 | 3.3 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Commanders closed -7, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 42 — under by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 5 |
| 10 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| -2.4 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 0.5 |
| 2.8 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 7% | 2.2 |
| Dyami Brown | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 13% | -1.4 |
| Brian Robinson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | 0.1 |
| John Bates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.5 |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Percy Butler | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noah Igbinoghene | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Benjamin St-Juste | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Fowler | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorance Armstrong | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Darrick Forrest | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -2.0 |
| Deuce Vaughn | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 | 1.5 |
| Trey Lance | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 | -1.4 |
| Hunter Luepke | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 | 2.6 |
| Kavontae Turpin | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 | -1.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Tolbert | 4 | 6 | 98 | 0 | 18% | 6.6 |
| Kavontae Turpin | 3 | 5 | 53 | 0 | 15% | 2.1 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 6% | 1.6 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 6% | 0.9 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 9 | 15 | 0 | 27% | -6.3 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 6% | 0.6 |
| Rico Dowdle | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 9% | -2.6 |
| Jake Ferguson | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 12% | -1.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daron Bland | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marist Liufau | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Kendricks | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Hooker | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jourdan Lewis | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Micah Parsons | 3 | 1 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Osa Odighizuwa | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Pride | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chauncey Golston | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Mazi Smith | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
