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Washington Commanders 23 at Dallas Cowboys 19. Final.
Commanders -7 no coverU 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 18
Washington Commanders 23, Cowboys 19 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:33, 4th and 1, on Marcus Mariota — 33.0 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:33 · 4th and 1
Marcus Mariota
Commanders
(:33) (Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota left tackle to DAL 16 for 33 yards (28-M.Hooker).
Dome
Commanders closed -7, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Washington Commanders 23–19. Biggest swing: Q4 0:33, Commanders +33.0% win probability on one snap.
33.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Marcus MariotaCowboysQ4 5:57(5:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota sacked at WAS 14 for -15 yards (sack split by 97-O.Odighizuwa and 99-C.Golston). Penalty on WAS-67-N.Allegretti, Offensive Holding, declined.
14.9pts
Terry McLaurinCommandersQ4 0:06(:06) (Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
32.1pts
What separated them
Red zone
Commanders won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Cowboys at 1 touchdown on 6 trips.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Commanders won this one — +0.34 expected points per carry, against Cowboys at -0.05 expected points per carry.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Commanders won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cowboys at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Commanders at 5 chunk plays.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 21.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 37 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Commanders173 of 186 plays carry both curves
(:33) (Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota left tackle to DAL 16 for 33 yards (28-M.Hooker).
Swing −33.0 for CowboysExpected points −3.56 for CowboysThe model had Cowboys 6 points higher than the market did.play 176
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:33DAL +33% win prob(:33) (Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota left tackle to DAL 16 for 33 yards (28-M.Hooker).
4th · 0:06DAL +32% win prob(:06) (Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:57WAS +15% win prob(5:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota sacked at WAS 14 for -15 yards (sack split by 97-O.Odighizuwa and 99-C.Golston). Penalty on WAS-67-N.Allegretti, Offensive Holding, declined.
2nd · 14:54DAL +14% win prob(14:54) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to WAS 20, Center-44-T.Sieg. 80-J.Crowder MUFFS catch, touched at WAS 22, RECOVERED by DAL-29-C.Goodwin at WAS 22.
4th · 8:31DAL +13% win prob(8:31) (Shotgun) 19-T.Lance pass incomplete deep right to 81-J.Mingo (25-B.St-Juste). PENALTY on WAS-25-B.St-Juste, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at WAS 21 - No Play.
4th · 7:06DAL +12% win prob(7:06) (Shotgun) 23-R.Dowdle left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Terry McLaurin's 5-yard touchdown catch with 0:06 left in the 4th put Washington Commanders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:24Brandon Aubrey·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+30–3
2nd12:45Brandon Aubrey·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+30–6
2nd4:44Zane Gonzalez·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap T.Ott+33–6
3rd8:55Brandon Aubrey·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+33–9
3rd5:10Zach Ertz·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Marcus Mariotafrom Marcus Mariota+710–9
4th13:55Brandon Aubrey·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+310–12
4th11:22Marcus Mariota·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+616–12
4th0:06Terry McLaurin·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Marcus Mariotafrom Marcus MariotaLead never changed again+723–19
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categoryCowboys
Commanders3–5Cowboys
270Total yards378
5.0Yards per play5.0
48%Success rate41%
46%Third-down rate41%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays7
18First downs21
6Sacks taken2
0Turnovers0
The read
Cowboys ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Commanders, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.09Commanders: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.04Cowboys: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.00Commanders: −0.00 expected points added per play
−0.03Cowboys: −0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.34Commanders: +0.34 expected points added per play
−0.05Cowboys: −0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 54 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 75 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 3, Cowboys 6.
NoteCommanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 100.0% in week 17 against 33.3% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 29.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 14 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.0 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−1.48× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Cowboys17.5%
right on their number · +1.3 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteDAL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -11.8 pts, 9.3 points below their season mean of -2.4 pts and 1.7 times their own 5.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Mariota pass+41% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:06) (Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:06 · Commanders · 2nd & goal at DAL 5 · gained 5 · +3.69 EP · +41.4% win probability
171 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 181. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 91 yards from the WAS 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
45%
Yards
647
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.0555%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.1773%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.0433%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.1250%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.2157%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Cowboys2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR3——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Commanders0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Commanders 37
Commanders0Cowboys3
Field goal10 plays, from the Cowboys 9 to the Commanders 16
Punt9 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Commanders 46
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 10 to the Cowboys 17
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 28 to the Commanders 33
The period ended6 plays, from the Cowboys 19 to the Cowboys 38
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt2 plays
Commanders0Cowboys6
Field goal4 plays, from the Commanders 22 to the Commanders 19
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 37
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 35
Commanders3Cowboys6
Field goal9 plays, from the Commanders 37 to the Cowboys 28
Turnover on downs20 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Commanders 2
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Commanders3Cowboys9
Field goal13 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Commanders 9
How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Commanders9Cowboys9
Commanders10Cowboys9
Touchdown10 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Cowboys 5
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.2 seconds
The period ended12 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Commanders 22
4th quarter60 plays
Commanders10Cowboys12
Field goal6 plays, from the Commanders 17 to the Commanders 4
Commanders16Cowboys12
Touchdown10 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Cowboys 5
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.2 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Commanders16Cowboys18
Commanders16Cowboys19
Touchdown14 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Commanders 1
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 44 to the Commanders 47
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Commanders22Cowboys19
Commanders23Cowboys19
Touchdown18 plays, from the Commanders 9 to the Cowboys 5
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
