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2024 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 5, 2025 · AT&T Stadium

Washington CommandersWinner

23

Dallas Cowboys

19

WAS -7 no coverU 43.5 ✓Dome

Washington Commanders 23–19. Biggest swing: Q4 0:33, DAL +33% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DAL ↑WAS ↓
Q4 · 0:33WAS 16 — DAL 19WAS ball · 4th & 1DAL 75%

(:33) (Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota left tackle to DAL 16 for 33 yards (28-M.Hooker).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:33DAL +33% win prob(:33) (Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota left tackle to DAL 16 for 33 yards (28-M.Hooker).
  2. Q4 · 0:06DAL +32% win prob(:06) (Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 5:57WAS +15% win prob(5:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota sacked at WAS 14 for -15 yards (sack split by 97-O.Odighizuwa and 99-C.Golston). Penalty on WAS-67-N.Allegretti, Offensive Holding, declined.
  4. Q2 · 14:54DAL +14% win prob(14:54) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to WAS 20, Center-44-T.Sieg. 80-J.Crowder MUFFS catch, touched at WAS 22, RECOVERED by DAL-29-C.Goodwin at WAS 22.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:24DAL Field goal

    (8:24) 17-B.Aubrey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: WAS 0 — DAL 3
  2. Q2 · 12:45DAL Field goal

    (12:45) 17-B.Aubrey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. PENALTY on WAS-94-D.Payne, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

    Score after this play: WAS 0 — DAL 6
  3. Q2 · 4:44WAS Field goal

    (4:44) 47-Z.Gonzalez 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: WAS 3 — DAL 6
  4. Q3 · 8:55DAL Field goal

    (8:55) 17-B.Aubrey 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: WAS 3 — DAL 9
  5. Q3 · 5:10WAS Touchdown

    (5:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 10 — DAL 9
  6. Q4 · 13:55DAL Field goal

    (13:55) 17-B.Aubrey 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: WAS 10 — DAL 12
  7. Q4 · 11:22WAS Touchdown

    (11:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: WAS 16 — DAL 12
  8. Q4 · 7:06DAL Touchdown

    (7:06) (Shotgun) 23-R.Dowdle left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 16 — DAL 19
  9. Q4 · 0:06WAS Touchdown

    (:06) (Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 23 — DAL 19

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCommandersCowboys
Offensive plays5475
Total yards270378 (edge)
Yards per play5.05.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.09 (edge)-0.04
Success rate48% (edge)41%
Dropback rate74%49%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.00 (edge)-0.03
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.34 (edge)-0.05
Third downs6/13 (edge)7/17
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)57 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1821 (edge)
Sacks taken62 (edge)
Turnovers00

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Trey LanceQB

20/34, 244 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-2.6 expected points added · -8.7% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Marcus MariotaQB

15/18, 161 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

10.3 expected points added · +23.5% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Rico DowdleRB

22 att, 72 yds, 1 TD

-2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Marcus MariotaQB

5 att, 56 yds, 1 TD

4.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

Jalen TolbertWR

4/6 for 98 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

8/12 for 62 yds, 1 TD

40% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1WASWAS 305-22:12Punt
2DALDAL 98844:28Field goal +3
3WASWAS 308173:21Punt
4DALDAL 104121:34Punt
5WASWAS 28450:52Punt
6DALDAL 197192:48Punt
7DALWAS 224-12:04Field goal +3
8WASWAS 256112:13Punt
9DALDAL 25682:49Punt
10WASWAS 379342:59Field goal +3
11DALDAL 3016684:23Turnover on downs
12WASWAS 2100:17End of half
13DALDAL 3013536:08Field goal +3
14WASWAS 3010703:45Touchdown +7
15DALDAL 3016766:14Field goal +3
16WASWAS 3010702:35Touchdown +6
17DALDAL 3010504:16Touchdown +7
18WASWAS 305-161:28Punt
19DALDAL 44492:16Punt
20WASWAS 912813:15Touchdown +7
21DAL—100:03End of game

9 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 84 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Marcus Mariota15/1816120210.3
Jayden Daniels6/1238004-11.4
Dyami Brown0/10000-0.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Marcus Mariota55611.214.5
Jayden Daniels4276.802.9
Austin Ekeler3124.000.4
Brian Robinson5102.00-2.4
Dyami Brown188.000.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Terry McLaurin81262140%2.7
Olamide Zaccheaus2551017%2.4
Zach Ertz5544117%2.8
Austin Ekeler222007%2.2
Dyami Brown3416013%-1.4
Brian Robinson11603%0.1
John Bates01003%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jeremy Chinn851.000
Mike Sainristil730.003
Frankie Luvu620.000
Bobby Wagner440.001
Percy Butler520.000
Noah Igbinoghene320.001
Benjamin St-Juste320.000
Dante Fowler220.000
Dorance Armstrong210.001
Darrick Forrest120.000

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trey Lance20/34244002-2.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Rico Dowdle22723.31-2.0
Deuce Vaughn6376.201.5
Trey Lance6264.30-1.4
Hunter Luepke3155.002.6
Kavontae Turpin155.00-0.2
Brandin Cooks1-5-5.00-1.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jalen Tolbert4698018%6.6
Kavontae Turpin3553015%2.1
Jonathan Mingo222406%1.6
Luke Schoonmaker221606%0.9
Brandin Cooks3915027%-6.3
Ryan Flournoy221406%0.6
Rico Dowdle231209%-2.6
Jake Ferguson2412012%-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Daron Bland700.000
Marist Liufau420.000
Eric Kendricks320.000
Malik Hooker410.001
Jourdan Lewis410.001
Micah Parsons312.500
Osa Odighizuwa030.500
Troy Pride210.001
Chauncey Golston111.500
Mazi Smith110.500

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
WAS -7
Closing total
43.5
WAS moneyline
-310
DAL moneyline
+250

Commanders closed -7, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 42 — under by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
WAS 7 days · DAL 7 days
Coaches
Dan Quinn vs Mike McCarthy

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.