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2024 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 12, 2025 · New Era Field
7
31
Buffalo Bills 31–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:43, BUF +14% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(12:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 16-T.Franklin for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-D.Smoot].
How the points landed
(12:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 16-T.Franklin for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-D.Smoot]. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 7 — BUF 0(7:10) 2-T.Bass 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: DEN 7 — BUF 3(13:02) 4-J.Cook left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 7 — BUF 10(10:06) 2-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: DEN 7 — BUF 13(3:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 26-Ty.Johnson for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: DEN 7 — BUF 21(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 1-C.Samuel for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 7 — BUF 28(4:41) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: DEN 7 — BUF 31Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Broncos | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 42 | 70 |
| Total yards | 224 | 476 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.3 | 6.8 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.13 | 0.33 (edge) |
| Success rate | 43% | 57% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 67% | 47% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.06 | 0.50 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.25 | 0.17 (edge) |
| Third downs | 2/9 | 8/14 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 | 8 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 12 | 26 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 2 | 2 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
20/26, 272 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
16.0 expected points added · +16.5% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
Bo NixQB
13/22, 144 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-7.4 expected points added · -4.5% completion over expected
Receiving · DEN
5/9 for 75 yds, 0 TD
39% of team targets · -0.8 expected points added
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | DEN 30 | 7 | 70 | 2:24 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 2 | BUF | BUF 33 | 13 | 59 | 5:29 | Field goal +3 | |
| 3 | DEN | DEN 30 | 5 | 5 | 1:35 | Punt | |
| 4 | BUF | BUF 19 | 14 | 86 | 7:35 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 5 | DEN | DEN 30 | 11 | 31 | 4:29 | Punt | |
| 6 | BUF | BUF 1 | 12 | 44 | 6:36 | Punt | |
| 7 | DEN | DEN 8 | 8 | 55 | 1:52 | Missed field goal | |
| 8 | BUF | BUF 36 | 9 | 55 | 4:57 | Field goal +3 | |
| 9 | DEN | DEN 20 | 5 | 5 | 1:23 | Punt | |
| 10 | BUF | BUF 27 | 10 | 70 | 5:34 | Touchdown +8 | |
| 11 | DEN | DEN 30 | 5 | 4 | 2:00 | Punt | |
| 12 | BUF | BUF 41 | 4 | 59 | 1:17 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 13 | DEN | DEN 25 | 9 | 61 | 3:17 | Turnover on downs | |
| 14 | BUF | BUF 14 | 14 | 90 | 6:55 | Field goal +3 | |
| 15 | DEN | DEN 30 | 5 | -7 | 1:17 | Turnover on downs | |
| 16 | BUF | DEN 23 | 5 | 13 | 3:20 | End of game |
7 of 16 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 90 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a field goal.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 13/22 | 144 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -7.4 |
| Riley Dixon | 1/1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 4 | 43 | 10.8 | 0 | 2.4 |
| Javonte Williams | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 | -0.9 |
| Tyler Badie | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Marvin Mims | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 5 | 9 | 75 | 0 | 39% | -0.8 |
| Troy Franklin | 2 | 3 | 54 | 1 | 13% | 3.6 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 9% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Locke | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Barton | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dondrea Tillman | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Riley Moss |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 20/26 | 272 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 23 | 120 | 5.2 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 38 — under by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| -2 |
| -1.0 |
| 0 |
| -1.7 |
| 0.2 |
| Marvin Mims | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 17% | 0.9 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | -0.4 |
| Lucas Krull | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | -0.0 |
| Devaughn Vele | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9% | -1.4 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -3.3 |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Brandon Jones | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Jones | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Strnad | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Allen | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Surtain | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nik Bonitto | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.5 |
| Josh Allen | 8 | 46 | 5.8 | 0 | 5.2 |
| Ty Johnson | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | -4.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Samuel | 3 | 3 | 68 | 1 | 12% | 7.4 |
| Khalil Shakir | 6 | 6 | 61 | 0 | 24% | 3.5 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 | 12% | 3.4 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 | 12% | 2.0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 2 | 26 | 1 | 8% | 4.2 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 8% | 0.1 |
| Amari Cooper | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 12% | -1.8 |
| Keon Coleman | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 12% | 0.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrel Bernard | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Milano | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taron Johnson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damar Hamlin | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Benford | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DaQuan Jones | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Johnson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gregory Rousseau | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
