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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:05 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 12, 2025 · New Era Field
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Wild Card
It turned at Q1 12:43, 2nd and 4, on Troy Franklin — 14.2 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Buffalo Bills 31–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:43, Broncos +14.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:43 · 2nd and 4
Troy Franklin
Broncos
(12:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 16-T.Franklin for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-D.Smoot].
14.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Bills won this one — 8 of 14 on third down, against Broncos at 2 of 9 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.33 expected points per snap, against Broncos at -0.13 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bills won this one — +0.17 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.25 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 57% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
(12:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 16-T.Franklin for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-D.Smoot].
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
James Cook's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 13:02 left in the 2nd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Broncoscategory by categoryBills
Bills ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 42 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Bills’s 70 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 2, Bills 7.
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2024 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Broncos-5.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 0.3 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.92× that swing) · 42 snaps
Bills-4.4 ptsright on their number · −2.4 vs their -2.1 pts, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 69 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 80%
Tendencies room →Broncos56.7%right on their number · +0.9 vs their 55.8%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 30 early downs
Bills41.5%inside their normal wobble · −10.6 vs their 52.1%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−0.97× that swing) · 53 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 54%
Tendencies room →Broncos10.7%leaned — dropped back clean · −16.3 vs their 27.0%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−1.53× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Bills27.3%leaned — faked the run · +9.5 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+1.34× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -56% to 114%
Fourth Down room →Broncos33.3%right on their number · +4.6 vs their 28.8%, and they swing ±33.3 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Bills—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 41.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 74%
Tendencies room →Broncos33.3%right on their number · −0.6 vs their 33.9%, and they swing ±15.4 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Bills28.6%inside their normal wobble · +6.1 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 38%
Tendencies room →Broncos12.1%leaned — stayed blocked · −7.3 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Bills14.3%right on their number · −0.6 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
DEN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 10.7%, 16.3 points below their season mean of 27.0% and 1.5 times their own 10.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
20/26, 272 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
16.0 expected points added · +16.5% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
Bo NixQB
13/22, 144 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-7.4 expected points added · -4.5% completion over expected
Receiving · DEN
5/9 for 75 yds, 0 TD
39% of team targets · -0.8 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Curtis Samuel banked 11.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 25.5 | +3.0 | 93% | — | 0% | — | 20/26, 272 yd, 2 TD · 8 car, 46 yd |
| James CookRB · Committee Back | 18.0 | +2.8 | 45% | 27% | 0% | — | 23 car, 120 yd, 1 TD |
| Curtis SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 15.8 | +11.2 | 39% | 48% | 12% | 10% | 3/3, 68 yd, 1 TD |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 15.0 | +5.1 | 45% | 58% | 8% | 10% | 9 car, 44 yd · 2/2, 26 yd, 1 TD |
| Bo NixQB · Starter QB | 14.1 | +4.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 13/22, 144 yd, 1 TD · 4 car, 43 yd |
| Troy FranklinWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.4 | +8.5 | 40% | 50% | 13% | 22% | 2/3, 54 yd, 1 TD |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.5 | −1.4 | 98% | 96% | 39% | 57% | 5/9, 75 yd |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Featured Receiver | 12.1 | +2.8 | 53% | 73% | 24% | 5% | 6/6, 61 yd |
| Dalton KincaidTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | +2.8 | 38% | 64% | 12% | 17% | 3/3, 47 yd |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 6.3 | +0.1 | 74% | 79% | 9% | 0% | 7 car, 29 yd · 2/2, 14 yd |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | −1.4 | 61% | 55% | 12% | 18% | 2/3, 38 yd |
| Keon ColemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −4.2 | 61% | 52% | 12% | 21% | 1/3, 5 yd |
| Marvin MimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −4.8 | 69% | 71% | 17% | 14% | 2 car, 1 yd · 2/4, 12 yd |
| Mack HollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −2.0 | 68% | 52% | 8% | 15% | 1/2, 19 yd |
| Amari CooperWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −3.1 | 36% | 42% | 12% | 5% | 2/3, 8 yd |
| Lucas KrullTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.1 | 69% | 89% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.1 | 19% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB | 0.8 | −1.9 | 19% | 14% | 4% | 0% | 2 car, -2 yd · 1/1, 0 yd |
| Tyler BadieRB | 0.8 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ray DavisRB | 0.3 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Devaughn VeleWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.0 | 52% | 64% | 9% | 6% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Mitchell TrubiskyQB | -0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:49) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon pass short left to 19-M.Mims to BUF 42 for 15 yards (46-J.Ingram).
Q2 10:49 · Broncos · 4th & 8 at DEN 43 · gained 15 · +3.49 EP · +14.3% win probability
144 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 160 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 144 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 155. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 81 yards from the BUF 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Broncos6
Bills0Broncos7Bills0Broncos7Bills3Broncos7Bills9Broncos7Bills10How the play was built
Empty backfield, a trick play, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Broncos7Bills13Broncos7Bills19Broncos7Bills21Broncos7Bills27Broncos7Bills28Broncos7Bills31Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Broncos at Bills, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 13/22 | 144 | 1 | 0 | 2 | −7.4 |
| Riley Dixon | 1/1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 4 | 43 | 10.8 | 0 | +2.4 |
| Javonte Williams | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 5 | 9 | 75 | 0 | 39% | −0.8 |
| Troy Franklin | 2 | 3 | 54 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Locke | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Barton | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jones |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 20/26 | 272 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +16.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_19_DEN_BUF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 38 — under by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
| Tyler Badie | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Marvin Mims | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.7 |
| 13% |
| +3.6 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 9% | +0.2 |
| Marvin Mims | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 17% | +0.9 |
| Lucas Krull | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Devaughn Vele | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −1.4 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −3.3 |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Dondrea Tillman | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Riley Moss | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| D.J. Jones | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Strnad | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Surtain | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Allen | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nik Bonitto | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Cook | 23 | 120 | 5.2 | 1 | +1.5 |
| Josh Allen | 8 | 46 | 5.8 | 0 | +5.2 |
| Ty Johnson | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | −4.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Samuel | 3 | 3 | 68 | 1 | 12% | +7.4 |
| Khalil Shakir | 6 | 6 | 61 | 0 | 24% | +3.5 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 | 12% | +3.4 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 | 12% | +2.0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 2 | 26 | 1 | 8% | +4.2 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 8% | +0.1 |
| Amari Cooper | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 12% | −1.8 |
| Keon Coleman | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 12% | +0.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrel Bernard | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Milano | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taron Johnson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damar Hamlin | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Benford | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gregory Rousseau | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DaQuan Jones | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Johnson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
