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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:56 AM ET · 16 to play
2024 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 12, 2025 · New Era Field
Final
BroncosDenver7
BY 24final margin
BillsBuffalo31
Denver Broncos 7 at Buffalo Bills 31. Final.
Bills -7.5 ✓U 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Wild Card
Buffalo Bills 31, Broncos 7 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 12:43, 2nd and 4, on Troy Franklin — 14.2 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:43 · 2nd and 4
Troy Franklin
Broncos
(12:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 16-T.Franklin for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-D.Smoot].
31°F
Bills closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Buffalo Bills 31–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:43, Broncos +14.2% win probability on one snap.
14.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Marvin MimsBroncosQ2 10:49(10:49) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon pass short left to 19-M.Mims to BUF 42 for 15 yards (46-J.Ingram).
6.7pts
Wil LutzBillsQ2 0:05(:05) 3-W.Lutz 50 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
6.6pts
What separated them
Third down
Bills won this one — 8 of 14 on third down, against Broncos at 2 of 9 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.33 expected points per snap, against Broncos at -0.13 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bills won this one — +0.17 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.25 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 57% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Broncos146 of 160 plays carry both curves
(12:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 16-T.Franklin for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-D.Smoot].
Swing −14.2 for BillsExpected points −4.22 for BillsThe model had Broncos 21 points higher than the market did.play 7
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:43BUF +14% win prob(12:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 16-T.Franklin for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-D.Smoot].
2nd · 10:49BUF +7% win prob(10:49) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon pass short left to 19-M.Mims to BUF 42 for 15 yards (46-J.Ingram).
2nd · 0:05DEN +7% win prob(:05) 3-W.Lutz 50 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
1st · 8:28BUF +5% win prob(8:28) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left guard to DEN 11 for 3 yards (92-D.Tillman).
1st · 0:36BUF +5% win prob(:36) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 1-C.Samuel to DEN 21 for 7 yards (40-J.Strnad).
1st · 3:06DEN +4% win prob(3:06) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BUF-4-J.Cook, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 44 - No Play.
2nd · 2:27
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
James Cook's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 13:02 left in the 2nd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:43Troy Franklin·43-yd TD catch43-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo Nix+77–0
1st7:10Tyler Bass·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.Ferguson+37–3
2nd13:02James Cook·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–10
3rd10:06Tyler Bass·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.Ferguson+37–13
4th4:41Tyler Bass·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.Ferguson+37–31
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryBills
Broncos0–7Bills
224Total yards476
5.3Yards per play6.8
43%Success rate57%
22%Third-down rate57%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays8
12First downs26
2Sacks taken2
0Turnovers0
The read
Bills ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.13Broncos: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.33Bills: +0.33 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.06Broncos: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.50Bills: +0.50 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.25Broncos: −0.25 expected points added per play
+0.17Bills: +0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 42 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Bills’s 70 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 2, Bills 7.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2024 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 19 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.3 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Bills14.3%
right on their number · −0.6 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
NoteDEN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 10.7%, 16.3 points below their season mean of 27.0% and 1.5 times their own 10.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Dixon pass+14% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(10:49) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon pass short left to 19-M.Mims to BUF 42 for 15 yards (46-J.Ingram).
Q2 10:49 · Broncos · 4th & 8 at DEN 43 · gained 15 · +3.49 EP · +14.3% win probability
144 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 160 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 144 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 155. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 81 yards from the BUF 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
160 of 160 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
160
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
49%
Yards
697
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.5047%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.1973%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12+0.0525%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.5125%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.0260%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Bills0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Broncos6Bills0
Broncos7Bills0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Bills 43
Broncos7Bills3
Field goal13 plays, from the Bills 33 to the Broncos 8
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Broncos 35
The period ended11 plays, from the Bills 19 to the Broncos 28
2nd quarter45 plays
Broncos7Bills9
Broncos7Bills10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Broncos 21 to the Broncos 5
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a trick play, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Offense on the fieldOne corner, one fullback, one inside linebacker, one long snapper, one outside linebacker, one punter, two strong safeties, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and three backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Punt11 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Bills 36
Punt15 plays, from the Bills 1 to the Bills 40
No good12 plays, from the Broncos 8 to the Bills 32
3rd quarter35 plays
Broncos7Bills13
Field goal9 plays, from the Bills 36 to the Broncos 6
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 25
Broncos7Bills19
Broncos7Bills21
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Broncos 24
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Broncos 34
The period ended3 plays, from the Bills 41 to the Bills 42
4th quarter43 plays
Broncos7Bills27
Broncos7Bills28
Touchdown2 plays
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Bills 14
Broncos7Bills31
Field goal19 plays, from the Bills 14 to the Broncos 16
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Broncos 37
The period ended6 plays, from the Broncos 23 to the Broncos 10
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
