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2024 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 12, 2025 · New Era Field

Denver Broncos

7

Buffalo BillsWinner

31

BUF -7.5 ✓U 48.5 ✓32°F

Buffalo Bills 31–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:43, BUF +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3BUF ↑DEN ↓
Q1 · 12:43DEN 6 — BUF 0DEN ball · 2nd & 4BUF 74%

(12:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 16-T.Franklin for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-D.Smoot].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 12:43BUF +14% win prob(12:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 16-T.Franklin for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-D.Smoot].
  2. Q2 · 10:49BUF +7% win prob(10:49) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon pass short left to 19-M.Mims to BUF 42 for 15 yards (46-J.Ingram).
  3. Q2 · 0:05DEN +7% win prob(:05) 3-W.Lutz 50 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
  4. Q1 · 8:28BUF +5% win prob(8:28) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left guard to DEN 11 for 3 yards (92-D.Tillman).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 12:43DEN Touchdown

    (12:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 16-T.Franklin for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-D.Smoot]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — BUF 0
  2. Q1 · 7:10BUF Field goal

    (7:10) 2-T.Bass 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — BUF 3
  3. Q2 · 13:02BUF Touchdown

    (13:02) 4-J.Cook left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — BUF 10
  4. Q3 · 10:06BUF Field goal

    (10:06) 2-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — BUF 13
  5. Q3 · 3:15BUF Touchdown

    (3:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 26-Ty.Johnson for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — BUF 21
  6. Q4 · 15:00BUF Touchdown

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 1-C.Samuel for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — BUF 28
  7. Q4 · 4:41BUF Field goal

    (4:41) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — BUF 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBroncosBills
Offensive plays4270
Total yards224476 (edge)
Yards per play5.36.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.130.33 (edge)
Success rate43%57% (edge)
Dropback rate67%47%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.060.50 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.250.17 (edge)
Third downs2/98/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)58 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1226 (edge)
Sacks taken22
Turnovers00

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs -0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

20/26, 272 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

16.0 expected points added · +16.5% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

13/22, 144 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-7.4 expected points added · -4.5% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

23 att, 120 yds, 1 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

8 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

5.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

5/9 for 75 yds, 0 TD

39% of team targets · -0.8 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Curtis SamuelWR

3/3 for 68 yds, 1 TD

12% of team targets · 7.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DENDEN 307702:24Touchdown +7
2BUFBUF 3313595:29Field goal +3
3DENDEN 30551:35Punt
4BUFBUF 1914867:35Touchdown +7
5DENDEN 3011314:29Punt
6BUFBUF 112446:36Punt
7DENDEN 88551:52Missed field goal
8BUFBUF 369554:57Field goal +3
9DENDEN 20551:23Punt
10BUFBUF 2710705:34Touchdown +8
11DENDEN 30542:00Punt
12BUFBUF 414591:17Touchdown +7
13DENDEN 259613:17Turnover on downs
14BUFBUF 1414906:55Field goal +3
15DENDEN 305-71:17Turnover on downs
16BUFDEN 235133:20End of game

7 of 16 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 90 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bo Nix13/22144102-7.4
Riley Dixon1/1150003.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bo Nix44310.802.4
Javonte Williams7294.10-0.9
Tyler Badie284.00-0.2
Marvin Mims210.50-0.8
Jaleel McLaughlin2-2-1.00-1.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Courtland Sutton5975039%-0.8
Troy Franklin2354113%3.6
Javonte Williams221409%0.2
Marvin Mims2412017%0.9
Adam Trautman11204%-0.4
Lucas Krull11204%-0.0
Devaughn Vele02009%-1.4
Jaleel McLaughlin11004%-3.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
P.J. Locke550.000
Cody Barton260.000
Dondrea Tillman340.000
Riley Moss520.001
Brandon Jones520.000
D.J. Jones421.000
Justin Strnad410.000
Zach Allen411.000
Patrick Surtain410.000
Nik Bonitto220.000

Buffalo Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Josh Allen20/2627220216.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
James Cook231205.211.5
Josh Allen8465.805.2
Ty Johnson9444.900.5
Ray Davis133.00-0.1
Mitchell Trubisky3-3-1.00-4.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Curtis Samuel3368112%7.4
Khalil Shakir6661024%3.5
Dalton Kincaid3347012%3.4
Dawson Knox2338012%2.0
Ty Johnson222618%4.2
Mack Hollins121908%0.1
Amari Cooper238012%-1.8
Keon Coleman135012%0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Terrel Bernard510.000
Matt Milano321.000
Taron Johnson320.000
Damar Hamlin130.000
Christian Benford310.000
Rasul Douglas210.000
DaQuan Jones110.000
Austin Johnson200.000
Gregory Rousseau201.000
Mack Hollins100.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BUF -7.5
Closing total
48.5
DEN moneyline
+330
BUF moneyline
-425

Bills closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 24.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 38 — under by 10.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather
32°F, wind 10 mph
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
DEN 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Sean McDermott