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Game Center
Game Center
2024 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 12, 2025 · Lincoln Financial Field
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Wild Card
It turned at Q1 15:00 — 7.6 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 15:00
Unnamed on the sheet
Eagles
4-J.Elliott kicks 66 yards from PHI 35 to GB -1. 25-K.Nixon to GB 27 for 28 yards (42-O.Burks). FUMBLES (42-O.Burks), RECOVERED by PHI-54-J.Trotter at GB 28. The Replay Official reviewed the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Philadelphia Eagles 22–10. Biggest swing: Q1 15:00, Eagles +7.6% win probability on one snap.
7.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Eagles won this one — no giveaways, against Packers at 4 giveaways.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 13 on third down, against Eagles at 2 of 11 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Eagles at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.05 expected points per snap, against Packers at -0.07 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
4-J.Elliott kicks 66 yards from PHI 35 to GB -1. 25-K.Nixon to GB 27 for 28 yards (42-O.Burks). FUMBLES (42-O.Burks), RECOVERED by PHI-54-J.Trotter at GB 28. The Replay Official reviewed the loose ball recovery ruling, a
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jahan Dotson's 11-yard touchdown catch with 13:30 left in the 1st put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Jahan Dotson11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Jalen HurtsLead never changed again+70–7
Dallas Goedert24-yd TD catch24-yard touchdown catchfrom Jalen Hurts · kick no good, wide left+63–167 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Packerscategory by categoryEagles
Packers ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Eagles, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 59 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Eagles’s 56 at 43%. Red-zone trips: Packers 3, Eagles 5.
Packers outgained Eagles 303-291 but lost the turnover battle 4-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2024 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 13 pts
Over Expected room →Packers-9.0 ptsright on their number · −0.8 vs their -8.2 pts, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 59 snaps
Eagles-13.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their -9.0 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 8% to 80%
Tendencies room →Packers54.5%inside their normal wobble · +10.3 vs their 44.2%, and they swing ±14.1 week to week (+0.73× that swing) · 44 early downs
Eagles40.9%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 43.8%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 56%
Tendencies room →Packers8.3%leaned — dropped back clean · −15.9 vs their 24.3%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−1.30× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Eagles25.0%right on their number · +1.1 vs their 23.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18% to 109%
Fourth Down room →Packers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 33.8%.
Eagles25.0%inside their normal wobble · −21.1 vs their 46.1%, and they swing ±24.7 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 49%
Tendencies room →Packers25.0%right on their number · +1.9 vs their 23.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Eagles5.6%leaned — sat back · −18.2 vs their 23.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−1.86× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 33%
Tendencies room →Packers16.7%right on their number · +3.2 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Eagles13.9%right on their number · +0.5 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
PHI's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 5.6%, 18.2 points below their season mean of 23.8% and 1.9 times their own 9.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · GB
20/33, 212 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT
-5.5 expected points added · -5.4% completion over expected
Passing · PHI
13/21, 131 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
0.5 expected points added · +3.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Dallas Goedert banked 6.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh JacobsRB · Bell Cow Back | 21.1 | +5.7 | 62% | 44% | 9% | 2% | 18 car, 81 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 40 yd |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 16.8 | +3.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 13/21, 131 yd, 2 TD · 6 car, 36 yd |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Alpha Receiver | 14.7 | +6.0 | 92% | 83% | 33% | 18% | 4/6, 47 yd, 1 TD |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Bell Cow Back | 14.3 | −3.1 | 83% | 79% | 11% | 0% | 25 car, 119 yd · 2/2, 4 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Featured Receiver | 9.5 | +3.0 | 90% | 92% | 22% | 26% | 4/4, 55 yd |
| Tucker KraftTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.6 | +1.3 | 97% | 94% | 15% | 2% | 2 car, 10 yd · 5/5, 26 yd |
| Jayden ReedWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.6 | +2.6 | 55% | 58% | 12% | 9% | 4/4, 46 yd |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.1 | +3.0 | 57% | 67% | 11% | 10% | 1/2, 11 yd, 1 TD |
| Dontayvion WicksWR · Featured Receiver | 5.9 | −3.8 | 77% | 75% | 18% | 52% | 2/6, 39 yd |
| Emanuel WilsonRB | 3.9 | −1.6 | 17% | 22% | 9% | 3% | 3 car, 6 yd · 1/3, 23 yd |
| Jordan LoveQB · Starter QB | 3.5 | −9.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/33, 212 yd, 3 INT · 2 car, 10 yd |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | +0.5 | 56% | 50% | 6% | 4% | 2/2, 13 yd |
| Christopher BrooksRB | 2.9 | −0.4 | 24% | 33% | 9% | 0% | 2/3, 9 yd |
| A.J. BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −3.8 | 93% | 96% | 17% | 37% | 1/3, 10 yd |
| Grant CalcaterraTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | 0.0 | 53% | 38% | 6% | 3% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Kenneth GainwellRB | 1.4 | −0.4 | 17% | 17% | 0% | — | 3 car, 14 yd |
| Malik HeathWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −7.1 | 39% | 42% | 12% | 9% | 0/4, 0 yd |
| John FitzPatrickTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Will ShipleyRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Khari BlasingameRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle intended for 18-M.Heath INTERCEPTED by 53-Z.Baun at PHI 39. 53-Z.Baun ran ob at GB 45 for 16 yards (85-T.Kraft).
Q2 0:45 · Packers · 2nd & 10 at PHI 48 · gained nothing · -3.86 EP · −8.7% win probability
152 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 162 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 78 yards from the GB 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Packers0
Eagles6Packers0Eagles7Packers0Eagles10Packers3Eagles10Packers3Eagles16Packers9Eagles16Packers10Eagles16Packers10Eagles19Packers10Eagles22Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Packers at Eagles, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 20/33 | 212 | 0 | 3 | 2 | −5.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 18 | 81 | 4.5 | 1 | −0.0 |
| Jordan Love | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Tucker Kraft | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | +2.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Reed | 4 | 4 | 46 | 0 | 12% | +3.4 |
| Josh Jacobs | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 9% | +3.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quay Walker | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Edgerrin Cooper | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah McDuffie | 1 | 6 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Carrington Valentine |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 13/21 | 131 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_19_GB_PHI
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 12.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 32 — under by 13.5.
Conditions and crew
| Emanuel Wilson | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 2 | 6 | 39 | 0 | 18% | +1.0 |
| Tucker Kraft | 5 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 15% | +0.1 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 9% | +0.5 |
| Bo Melton | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 9% | −3.2 |
| Romeo Doubs | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 6% | +1.1 |
| Christopher Brooks | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 9% | −0.1 |
| Malik Heath | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12% | −8.3 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kenny Clark | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier McKinney | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kingsley Enagbare | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lukas Van Ness | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Evan Williams | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Javon Bullard | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 |
| 119 |
| 4.8 |
| 0 |
| −2.3 |
| Jalen Hurts | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 | +2.9 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 4 | 4 | 55 | 0 | 22% | +4.5 |
| Dallas Goedert | 4 | 6 | 47 | 1 | 33% | +1.4 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 11% | +1.7 |
| A.J. Brown | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 17% | −1.9 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11% | +0.1 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 6% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reed Blankenship | 7 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zack Baun | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Nolan Smith | 4 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nakobe Dean | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinyon Mitchell | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Oren Burks | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper DeJean | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Slay | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jalen Carter | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalyx Hunt | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
