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2024 Wild Card · Sat, Jan 11, 2025 · NRG Stadium

Los Angeles Chargers

12

Houston TexansWinner

32

LAC -3 upsetO 41.5 ✓Dome

Houston Texans 32–12 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 0:21, LAC +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3HOU ↑LAC ↓
Q3 · 0:21LAC 6 — HOU 19LAC ball · 1st & 10HOU 70%

(:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 15-L.McConkey INTERCEPTED by 23-E.Murray at LAC 38. 23-E.Murray for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 0:21LAC +19% win prob(:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 15-L.McConkey INTERCEPTED by 23-E.Murray at LAC 38. 23-E.Murray for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q3 · 12:57LAC +18% win prob(12:57) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon right end to LAC 26 for -2 yards (23-T.Jefferson). FUMBLES (23-T.Jefferson), RECOVERED by LAC-23-T.Jefferson at LAC 26. 23-T.Jefferson to LAC 26 for no gain (70-J.Scruggs). Penalty on HOU-57-B.Fisher, Offensive Holding, declined.
  3. Q3 · 13:45HOU +13% win prob(13:45) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to LAC 24 for 41 yards (52-K.Mack) [0-D.Henley].
  4. Q2 · 1:02HOU +12% win prob(1:02) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:41LAC Field goal

    (9:41) 11-C.Dicker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 3 — HOU 0
  2. Q1 · 6:39LAC Field goal

    (6:39) 11-C.Dicker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 6 — HOU 0
  3. Q2 · 1:02HOU Touchdown

    (1:02) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 6 — HOU 7
  4. Q2 · 0:06HOU Field goal

    (:06) 15-K.Fairbairn 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: LAC 6 — HOU 10
  5. Q3 · 4:51HOU Field goal

    (4:51) 15-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: LAC 6 — HOU 13
  6. Q3 · 0:21HOU Touchdown

    (:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 15-L.McConkey INTERCEPTED by 23-E.Murray at LAC 38. 23-E.Murray for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 6 — HOU 20
  7. Q4 · 12:03HOU Field goal

    (12:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: LAC 6 — HOU 23
  8. Q4 · 10:50LAC Touchdown

    (10:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 15-L.McConkey for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-D.Hunter].

    Score after this play: LAC 12 — HOU 23
  9. Q4 · 10:38HOU Score

    11-C.Dicker extra point is Blocked (96-D.Autry), Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. DEFENSIVE TWO-POINT ATTEMPT. 37-D.Ross recovered the blocked kick. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.

    Score after this play: LAC 12 — HOU 25
  10. Q4 · 3:47HOU Touchdown

    (3:47) 28-J.Mixon left tackle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 12 — HOU 32

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChargersTexans
Offensive plays5468
Total yards261431 (edge)
Yards per play4.86.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.52-0.11 (edge)
Success rate33%40% (edge)
Dropback rate67%57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.64-0.08 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.27-0.14 (edge)
Third downs3/115/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)18 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1320 (edge)
Sacks taken43 (edge)
Turnovers43 (edge)

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.52.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

22/33, 282 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

1.1 expected points added · -1.0% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

14/32, 242 yds, 1 TD, 4 INT

-23.1 expected points added · -20.7% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Joe MixonRB

25 att, 106 yds, 1 TD

-5.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

6 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

3.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Ladd McConkeyWR

9/14 for 197 yds, 1 TD

44% of team targets · 8.3 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Nico CollinsWR

7/8 for 122 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 10.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LACLAC 2711575:23Field goal +3
2HOUHOU 30270:09Fumble
3LACHOU 336122:53Field goal +3
4HOUHOU 30531:37Punt
5LACLAC 35522:23Punt
6HOUHOU 286312:41Punt
7LACLAC 86332:16Punt
8HOUHOU 12330:59Interception
9LACHOU 40100:08Interception
10HOUHOU 105152:11Punt
11LACLAC 257193:05Punt
12HOUHOU 1141105:17Touchdown +7
13LACLAC 30500:31Punt
14HOUHOU 325450:24Field goal +3
15LAC—100:03End of half
16HOUHOU 305442:10Fumble
17LACLAC 265252:40Turnover on downs
18HOUHOU 3510765:22Field goal +3
19LACLAC 295-22:15Punt
20HOUHOU 37472:12Punt
21LACLAC 28100:08Defensive touchdown
22LACLAC 305311:29Interception
23HOULAC 13411:44Field goal +3
24LACLAC 305701:22Touchdown +6
25HOUHOU 2616746:56Touchdown +7
26LACLAC 306140:59Interception
27HOUHOU 334152:43End of game

8 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 110 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert14/32242144-23.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
J.K. Dobbins9262.90-2.7
Gus Edwards7223.10-1.9
Hassan Haskins155.000.9
Derius Davis1-3-3.00-1.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Ladd McConkey914197144%8.3
Will Dissly2516016%-8.7
Tucker Fisk111503%1.1
D.J. Chark1410013%-4.8
Derius Davis11403%-0.4
J.K. Dobbins01003%-1.5
Hassan Haskins01003%-0.8
Quentin Johnston050016%-9.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Alohi Gilman460.001
Daiyan Henley540.000
Troy Dye620.001
Khalil Mack422.000
Derwin James320.001
Junior Colson310.000
Teair Tart210.000
Poona Ford300.000
Tony Jefferson210.000
Tarheeb Still300.000

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
C.J. Stroud22/332821131.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Joe Mixon251064.21-5.1
C.J. Stroud6427.003.5
Dameon Pierce2157.50-1.0
Dare Ogunbowale155.000.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Nico Collins78122125%10.6
Xavier Hutchinson113403%3.3
Cade Stover4428013%0.6
John Metchie4828025%-10.3
Dalton Schultz2423013%-2.1
Robert Woods2422013%0.0
Joe Mixon121306%-0.8
Diontae Johnson111203%-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Eric Murray430.011
Azeez Al-Shaair330.000
Henry To'oTo'o330.000
Derek Stingley400.025
Danielle Hunter210.000
Myles Bryant120.001
Will Anderson211.502
Calen Bullock120.000
Mario Edwards111.500
Kamari Lassiter110.012

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LAC -3
Closing total
41.5
LAC moneyline
-162
HOU moneyline
+136

Chargers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 44 — over by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
LAC 6 days · HOU 6 days
Coaches
Jim Harbaugh vs DeMeco Ryans