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Los Angeles Chargers 12 at Houston Texans 32. Final.
Chargers -3 upset
The verdict · 2024 Wild Card
Houston Texans 32, Chargers 12 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 0:21, 1st and 10, on Eric Murray — 18.8 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 0:21 · 1st and 10
Eric Murray
Texans
(:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 15-L.McConkey INTERCEPTED by 23-E.Murray at LAC 38. 23-E.Murray for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 41.5 ✓
Dome
Chargers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Houston Texans 32–12 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 0:21, Texans +18.8% win probability on one snap.
18.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Nico CollinsTexansQ3 13:45(13:45) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to LAC 24 for 41 yards (52-K.Mack) [0-D.Henley].
13.0pts
Joe MixonChargersQ3 12:57(12:57) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon right end to LAC 26 for -2 yards (23-T.Jefferson). FUMBLES (23-T.Jefferson), RECOVERED by LAC-23-T.Jefferson at LAC 26. 23-T.Jefferson to LAC 26 for no gain (70-J.Scruggs). Penalty on HOU-57-B.Fisher, Offensive Holding, declined.
17.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Texans won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Chargers at 1 chunk play.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Texans won this one — -0.11 expected points per snap, against Chargers at -0.52 expected points per snap.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Texans won this one — -0.08 expected points per dropback, against Chargers at -0.64 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Texans won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Chargers at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Chargers161 of 172 plays carry both curves
(:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 15-L.McConkey INTERCEPTED by 23-E.Murray at LAC 38. 23-E.Murray for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +18.8 for TexansExpected points +8.16 for TexansThe model had Texans 9 points higher than the market did.play 126
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 0:21LAC +19% win prob(:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 15-L.McConkey INTERCEPTED by 23-E.Murray at LAC 38. 23-E.Murray for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 12:57LAC +18% win prob(12:57) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon right end to LAC 26 for -2 yards (23-T.Jefferson). FUMBLES (23-T.Jefferson), RECOVERED by LAC-23-T.Jefferson at LAC 26. 23-T.Jefferson to LAC 26 for no gain (70-J.Scruggs). Penalty on HOU-57-B.Fisher, Offensive Holding, declined.
3rd · 13:45HOU +13% win prob(13:45) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to LAC 24 for 41 yards (52-K.Mack) [0-D.Henley].
2nd · 1:02HOU +12% win prob(1:02) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 10:50HOU +11% win prob(10:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 15-L.McConkey for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-D.Hunter].
3rd · 10:16LAC +11% win prob(10:16) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 1-Q.Johnston to HOU 33 for 1 yard (24-D.Stingley). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 1-Q.Johnston (24-D.Stingley).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nico Collins's 13-yard touchdown catch with 1:02 left in the 2nd put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:41Cameron Dicker·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+33–0
1st6:39Cameron Dicker·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+36–0
Texans ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.64 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.52Chargers: −0.52 expected points added per play
−0.11Texans: −0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.64Chargers: −0.64 expected points added per play
−0.08Texans: −0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.27Chargers: −0.27 expected points added per play
−0.14Texans: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 54 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Texans’s 68 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 2, Texans 4.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.52.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2024 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · −1.3 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Texans22.2%
inside their normal wobble · +6.3 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.97× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteHOU's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 33.3 points above their season mean of 33.3% and 1.5 times their own 22.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Stroud pass+16% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(1:02) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 1:02 · Texans · 3rd & 11 at LAC 13 · gained 13 · +3.42 EP · +16.4% win probability
159 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 99 yards from the HOU 1 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
-0.21
Success rate
40%
Yards
690
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.3268%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.5380%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25+0.3044%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.5045%
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Chargers3Texans0
Field goal11 plays, from the Chargers 27 to the Texans 14
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays
Chargers6Texans0
Field goal6 plays, from the Texans 33 to the Texans 21
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 33
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 35 to the Chargers 37
The period ended6 plays, from the Texans 28 to the Chargers 45
2nd quarter56 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 8 to the Chargers 41
Intercepted3 plays, from the Texans 12 to the Texans 15
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.0 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 10 to the Texans 25
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 44
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.4 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Chargers6Texans6
Chargers6Texans7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Texans 1 to the Chargers 12
Punt6 plays
Chargers6Texans10
Field goal8 plays, from the Texans 32 to the Chargers 23
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Chargers 24
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Texans 34
Chargers6Texans13
Field goal12 plays, from the Texans 35 to the Chargers 19
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 29 to the Chargers 33
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 37 to the Texans 44
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Chargers6Texans19
Touchdown1 play
Chargers6Texans20
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter42 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Chargers 32 to the Texans 39
Chargers6Texans23
Field goal4 plays, from the Chargers 13 to the Chargers 4
Chargers12Texans23
Chargers12Texans25
Touchdown5 plays
Chargers12Texans31
Chargers12Texans32
Touchdown19 plays, from the Texans 26 to the Chargers 17
Intercepted6 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Chargers 44
The period ended5 plays, from the Texans 33 to the Texans 48
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chargers -3
Closing total
41.5
Chargers moneyline
-162
Texans moneyline
+136
Chargers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 44 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Chargers 6 days · Texans 6 days
Coaches
Jim Harbaugh vs DeMeco Ryans
4th · 13:56LAC +10% win prob(13:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 81-W.Dissly INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Stingley at HOU 33. 24-D.Stingley to LAC 13 for 54 yards (27-J.Dobbins).
2nd · 1:57HOU +10% win prob(1:57) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 12-N.Collins to LAC 12 for 37 yards (32-A.Gilman).
