2024 Wild Card · Mon, Jan 13, 2025 · State Farm Stadium

Minnesota Vikings

Los Angeles RamsWinner

MIN -2.5 upsetU 47.5 ✓DomeVikings closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Los Angeles Rams 27–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 4:48, MIN +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 4:48MIN 3 — LA 16MIN ball · 3rd & 7LA 56%

(4:48) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at LA 46 for -8 yards (4-A.Witherspoon). FUMBLES (4-A.Witherspoon) [4-A.Witherspoon], RECOVERED by LA-8-J.Verse at LA 43. 8-J.Verse for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 4:48MIN +22% win prob(4:48) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at LA 46 for -8 yards (4-A.Witherspoon). FUMBLES (4-A.Witherspoon) [4-A.Witherspoon], RECOVERED by LA-8-J.Verse at LA 43. 8-J.Verse for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 11:50LA +9% win prob(11:50) 17-R.Wright punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback. PENALTY on LA-35-J.Hummel, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 35 - No Play.
Q1 · 10:41LA +7% win prob(10:41) (Run formation) PENALTY on MIN-90-J.Bullard, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 10 - No Play.
Q1 · 1:06MIN +7% win prob(1:06) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at LA 31 for -7 yards (91-K.Turner).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:28LA Touchdown
(10:28) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 0 — LA 7
Q1 · 4:05LA Field goal
(4:05) 16-J.Karty 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Score after this play: MIN 0 — LA 10
Q2 · 14:20MIN Field goal
(14:20) 16-W.Reichard 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 3 — LA 10
Q2 · 4:48LA Touchdown
(4:48) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at LA 46 for -8 yards (4-A.Witherspoon). FUMBLES (4-A.Witherspoon) [4-A.Witherspoon], RECOVERED by LA-8-J.Verse at LA 43. 8-J.Verse for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 3 — LA 17
Q2 · 0:21LA Touchdown
(:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 87-D.Allen for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN [22-H.Smith]. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 3 — LA 24
Q3 · 7:24LA Field goal
(7:24) 16-J.Karty 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Score after this play: MIN 3 — LA 27
Q3 · 5:14MIN Touchdown
(5:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA-4-A.Witherspoon was injured during the play.
Score after this play: MIN 9 — LA 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Rams
Offensive plays	71	49
Total yards	270	293 (edge)
Yards per play	3.8	6.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.39	0.04 (edge)
Success rate	39%	45% (edge)
Dropback rate	72%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.53	0.18 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03 (edge)	-0.17
Third downs	6/17 (edge)	2/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	6
First downs gained on snaps	17 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	9	2 (edge)
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.39.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Sam DarnoldQB

25/40, 245 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-29.9 expected points added · -5.0% completion over expected

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

19/27, 209 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

5.3 expected points added · +3.2% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Kyren WilliamsRB

16 att, 76 yds, 0 TD

-1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Aaron JonesRB

13 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

-3.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

T.J. HockensonTE

5/5 for 64 yds, 1 TD

13% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Tyler HigbeeTE

5/5 for 58 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 1.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LA	LA 30	9	65	4:38	Touchdown +7
2	MIN	MIN 30	5	0	2:12	Punt
3	LA	LA 22	8	77	4:09	Field goal +3
4	MIN	MIN 30	10	54	4:44	Field goal +3
5	LA	LA 30	5	0	0:19	Defensive touchdown
6	MIN	MIN 27	7	11	3:44	Interception
7	LA	LA 42	4	10	1:50	Punt
8	MIN	MIN 10	7	47	3:49	Defensive touchdown
9	MIN	MIN 30	8	9	3:08	Turnover on downs
10	LA	MIN 39	6	39	1:12	Touchdown +7
11	MIN	MIN 23	2	0	0:15	End of half
12	MIN	MIN 30	7	20	1:28	Punt
13	LA	LA 23	11	51	6:13	Field goal +3
14	MIN	MIN 38	8	57	2:14	Touchdown +6
15	LA	LA 30	7	12	2:58	Punt
16	MIN	MIN 4	12	31	5:06	Punt
17	LA	LA 20	7	31	4:36	Punt
18	MIN	MIN 20	10	29	3:50	Turnover on downs
19	LA	LA 46	4	8	1:02	Punt
20	MIN	MIN 8	6	12	1:48	Turnover on downs
21	LA	MIN 20	2	0	0:45	End of game

6 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 77 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	25/40	245	1	1	9	-29.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Aaron Jones	13	48	3.7	-3.0
Cam Akers	5	39	7.8	-0.4
Sam Darnold	4	19	4.8	5.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
T.J. Hockenson	5	5	64	1	13%	6.6
Justin Jefferson	5	8	58	0	20%	-3.6
Jalen Nailor	3	5	33	0	13%	0.0
Jordan Addison	3	8	29	0	20%	-4.0
Johnny Mundt	2	3	28	0	8%	1.7
Aaron Jones	3	6	12	0	15%	-2.4
Trent Sherfield	2	3	8	0	8%	-3.5
C.J. Ham	1	1	8	0	3%	0.5
Josh Oliver	1	1	5	0	3%	0.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Blake Cashman	5	6	1.0	0
Ivan Pace	7	3	0.0	0
Harrison Smith	3	6	0.0	1
Jonathan Greenard	2	1	0.0	0
Camryn Bynum	1	2	0.0	0
Byron Murphy	2	1	0.0	0
Andrew Van Ginkel	1	2	1.0	0
Josh Metellus	1	1	0.0	0
Stephon Gilmore	1	1	0.0	1
Jordan Addison	1	0	0.0	0

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	19/27	209	2	0	2	5.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kyren Williams	16	76	4.8	-1.2
Ronnie Rivers	3	8	2.7	-2.4
Puka Nacua	1	7	7.0	0.2
Matthew Stafford	2	-1	-0.5	-3.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Higbee	5	5	58	0	19%	1.7
Puka Nacua	5	9	44	0	35%	-1.6
Cooper Kupp	1	1	29	0	4%	3.5
Demarcus Robinson	1	2	23	0	8%	0.8
Kyren Williams	3	3	16	1	12%	0.7
Davis Allen	1	2	13	1	8%	2.3
Hunter Long	1	2	13	0	8%	0.4
Colby Parkinson	2	2	13	0	8%	0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Quentin Lake	6	3	0.0	0
Christian Rozeboom	4	3	0.0	0
Kamren Kinchens	4	2	0.0	0
Neville Gallimore	2	3	1.5	0
Jaylen McCollough	1	4	0.0	0
Darious Williams	2	2	0.0	2
Michael Hoecht	1	3	0.5	0
Kamren Curl	3	1	0.0	0
Kobie Turner	2	2	2.0	0
Omar Speights	3	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -2.5
Closing total: 47.5
MIN moneyline: -142
LA moneyline: +120

Vikings closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 36 — under by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: MIN 8 days · LA 8 days
Coaches: Kevin O'Connell vs Sean McVay