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2024 Wild Card · Sat, Jan 11, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium

Pittsburgh Steelers

14

Baltimore RavensWinner

28

BAL -9.5 ✓U 44.5 ✓32°F

Baltimore Ravens 28–14. Biggest swing: Q1 4:50, BAL +6% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3BAL ↑PIT ↓
Q1 · 4:50PIT 0 — BAL 6BAL ball · 3rd & 13BAL 84%

(4:50) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 7-R.Bateman for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 4:50BAL +6% win prob(4:50) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 7-R.Bateman for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 12:08BAL +5% win prob(12:08) 8-C.Waitman punts 54 yards to BAL 7, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 18-S.Sims MUFFS catch, and recovers at BAL 1. 18-S.Sims to BAL 5 for 4 yards (15-B.Skowronek).
  3. Q1 · 5:26PIT +4% win prob(5:26) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill left end pushed ob at PIT 15 for -3 yards (41-P.Wilson).
  4. Q1 · 14:18BAL +3% win prob(14:18) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren up the middle to PIT 33 for 4 yards (40-M.Harrison; 98-T.Jones).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 4:50BAL Touchdown

    (4:50) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 7-R.Bateman for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 0 — BAL 7
  2. Q2 · 4:13BAL Touchdown

    (4:13) 74-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry left guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 0 — BAL 14
  3. Q2 · 0:11BAL Touchdown

    (:11) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 43-J.Hill for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT-97-Ca.Heyward was injured during the play. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 0 — BAL 21
  4. Q3 · 8:10PIT Touchdown

    (8:10) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 11-V.Jefferson for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 7 — BAL 21
  5. Q3 · 5:57BAL Touchdown

    (5:57) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 7 — BAL 28
  6. Q3 · 3:32PIT Touchdown

    (3:32) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 14-G.Pickens for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 14 — BAL 28

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricSteelersRavens
Offensive plays4470
Total yards281465 (edge)
Yards per play6.46.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.120.30 (edge)
Success rate39%51% (edge)
Dropback rate82%36%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.180.43 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.150.23 (edge)
Third downs5/1110/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)610 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1126 (edge)
Sacks taken41 (edge)
Turnovers00

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.30 expected points added per play vs 0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Russell WilsonQB

20/29, 270 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.1 expected points added · +12.8% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

16/21, 175 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.4 expected points added · +12.8% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Derrick HenryRB

26 att, 186 yds, 2 TD

5.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

15 att, 81 yds, 0 TD

1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

George PickensWR

5/5 for 87 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 8.4 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Isaiah LikelyTE

3/4 for 53 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 3.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1PITPIT 208193:02Punt
2BALBAL 514997:13Touchdown +7
3PITPIT 30582:11Punt
4BALBAL 207343:27Punt
5PITPIT 20492:02Punt
6BALBAL 1514857:56Touchdown +7
7PITPIT 297242:16Punt
8BALBAL 1010901:51Touchdown +7
9PITPIT 30200:02End of half
10BALBAL 307193:31Punt
11PITPIT 210983:24Touchdown +7
12BALBAL 306702:16Touchdown +7
13PITPIT 307702:25Touchdown +7
14BALBAL 30560:57Punt
15PITPIT 257162:35Punt
16BALBAL 1710236:16Punt
17PITPIT 257372:30Turnover on downs
18BALBAL 4310396:06End of game

6 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 99 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Russell Wilson20/292702048.1
Justin Fields0/10000-0.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Najee Harris6172.80-1.3
Russell Wilson362.00-1.3
Jaylen Warren263.000.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
George Pickens5587119%8.4
Najee Harris3341012%3.3
Van Jefferson223718%3.4
Mike Williams123708%3.1
Calvin Austin122508%0.5
Jaylen Warren4519019%-0.7
Pat Freiermuth3415015%-3.1
Darnell Washington139012%0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Elandon Roberts770.000
Patrick Queen460.000
Minkah Fitzpatrick540.000
Cameron Heyward170.000
Joey Porter600.001
Payton Wilson330.000
DeShon Elliott500.001
Damontae Kazee300.000
Keeanu Benton120.000
Isaiahh Loudermilk210.000

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Lamar Jackson16/211752019.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Derrick Henry261867.225.3
Lamar Jackson15815.401.7
Steven Sims11515.000.9
Justice Hill6122.00-1.8
Mark Andrews252.500.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Isaiah Likely3453021%3.0
Mark Andrews2327016%1.7
Nelson Agholor112505%1.3
Rashod Bateman2224111%3.9
Tylan Wallace1221011%1.0
Justice Hill4413121%2.3
Anthony Miller3312016%-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Ar'Darius Washington520.000
Marlon Humphrey220.000
Roquan Smith220.000
Nnamdi Madubuike312.001
Malik Harrison220.000
Brandon Stephens130.000
Broderick Washington110.000
Odafe Oweh201.000
Nate Wiggins110.000
Kyle Van Noy100.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BAL -9.5
Closing total
44.5
PIT moneyline
+390
BAL moneyline
-520

Ravens closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 42 — under by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
32°F, wind 12 mph
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
PIT 7 days · BAL 7 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs John Harbaugh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.