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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:05 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Wild Card · Sat, Jan 11, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Wild Card
It turned at Q1 4:50, 3rd and 13, on Rashod Bateman — 5.8 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Baltimore Ravens 28–14. Biggest swing: Q1 4:50, Ravens +5.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 4:50 · 3rd and 13
Rashod Bateman
Ravens
(4:50) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 7-R.Bateman for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Ravens won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Steelers at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.23 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.15 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Steelers at 6 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
(4:50) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 7-R.Bateman for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Rashod Bateman's 15-yard touchdown catch with 4:50 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Rashod Bateman15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Lamar JacksonLead never changed again+70–76 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Steelerscategory by categoryRavens
Ravens ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 44 snaps at a 82% dropback rate against Ravens’s 70 at 36%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 2, Ravens 5.
Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.30 expected points added per play vs 0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
PIT's early-down pass rate, 78.1%, sat 29.9 points above their season number of 48.2% — they passed early by 3.7 times their own 8.1-point weekly swing.
32 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points. · +3.7σ from their own normal
PIT's pass rate over expected, +14.5 pts, sat 20.7 points above their season number of −6.3 pts — they threw more than the situation asked by 3.1 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
44 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points. · +3.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2024 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Steelers14.5 ptsoff script — threw more than the situation asked · +20.7 vs their -6.3 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+3.09× that swing) · 44 snaps
Ravens-19.6 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −11.8 vs their -7.7 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.84× that swing) · 70 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 83%
Tendencies room →Steelers78.1%off script — passed early · +29.9 vs their 48.2%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+3.67× that swing) · 32 early downs
Ravens30.9%leaned — ran early · −16.2 vs their 47.1%, and they swing ±13.2 week to week (−1.22× that swing) · 55 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 58%
Tendencies room →Steelers19.4%inside their normal wobble · −7.5 vs their 26.9%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Ravens20.0%right on their number · −5.4 vs their 25.4%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 109%
Fourth Down room →Steelers0.0%leaned — took the kick · −31.3 vs their 31.3%, and they swing ±21.3 week to week (−1.47× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Ravens—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 40.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 62%
Tendencies room →Steelers40.0%inside their normal wobble · +10.4 vs their 29.6%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Ravens5.6%leaned — sat back · −17.2 vs their 22.7%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−1.48× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 36%
Tendencies room →Steelers4.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −12.6 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.65× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Ravens22.2%leaned — got home · +5.6 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+1.05× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
PIT's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 78.1%, 29.9 points above their season mean of 48.2% and 3.7 times their own 8.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · PIT
20/29, 270 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
8.1 expected points added · +12.8% completion over expected
Passing · BAL
16/21, 175 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
9.4 expected points added · +12.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Derrick Henry banked 16.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick HenryRB · Committee Back | 30.6 | +16.0 | 61% | 38% | 0% | — | 26 car, 186 yd, 2 TD |
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 23.1 | +4.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/21, 175 yd, 2 TD · 15 car, 81 yd |
| George PickensWR · Featured Receiver | 19.7 | +12.6 | 78% | 86% | 19% | 32% | 5/5, 87 yd, 1 TD |
| Russell WilsonQB · Starter QB | 19.4 | +10.8 | 96% | — | 0% | — | 20/29, 270 yd, 2 TD · 3 car, 6 yd |
| Justice HillRB · Receiving Back | 12.5 | +2.0 | 39% | 58% | 21% | 0% | 6 car, 12 yd · 4/4, 13 yd, 1 TD |
| Van JeffersonWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.7 | +8.8 | 74% | 75% | 8% | 18% | 2/2, 37 yd, 1 TD |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.4 | +5.7 | 49% | 81% | 11% | 19% | 2/2, 24 yd, 1 TD |
| Najee HarrisRB · Committee Back | 8.8 | +1.9 | 46% | 42% | 12% | 0% | 6 car, 17 yd · 3/3, 41 yd |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Featured Receiver | 8.3 | +2.2 | 80% | 69% | 21% | 32% | 3/4, 53 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB · Receiving Back | 6.5 | −0.9 | 54% | 58% | 19% | 0% | 2 car, 6 yd · 4/5, 19 yd |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | −0.3 | 61% | 73% | 16% | 19% | 2 car, 5 yd · 2/3, 27 yd |
| Mike WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | +2.0 | 20% | 19% | 8% | 12% | 1/2, 37 yd |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | −0.2 | 59% | 64% | 15% | 7% | 3/4, 15 yd |
| Anthony MillerWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | +0.1 | 12% | 19% | 16% | 10% | 3/3, 12 yd |
| Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +1.5 | 27% | 35% | 5% | 14% | 1/1, 25 yd |
| Calvin AustinWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +0.5 | 72% | 81% | 8% | 33% | 1/2, 25 yd |
| Tylan WallaceWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −0.1 | 53% | 54% | 11% | 13% | 1/2, 21 yd |
| Darnell WashingtonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −1.7 | 46% | 36% | 12% | 7% | 1/3, 9 yd |
| Steven SimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.7 | 18% | 4% | 0% | — | 1 car, 15 yd |
| Justin FieldsQB | 0.0 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ben SkowronekWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cordarrelle PattersonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:17) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry left tackle to PIT 12 for 34 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick; 26-D.Jackson).
Q1 6:17 · Ravens · 1st & 10 at PIT 46 · gained 34 · +2.02 EP · +6.8% win probability
148 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 160 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 148 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 155. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 98 yards from the PIT 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Steelers0
Ravens6Steelers0Ravens7Steelers0Ravens13Steelers0Ravens14Steelers0Ravens20Steelers0Ravens21Steelers6Ravens21Steelers7Ravens21Steelers7Ravens27Steelers7Ravens28Steelers13Ravens28Steelers14Ravens28Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Steelers at Ravens, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 20/29 | 270 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +8.1 |
| Justin Fields | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 5 | 5 | 87 | 1 | 19% | +8.4 |
| Najee Harris | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 | 12% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elandon Roberts | 7 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Queen | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 16/21 | 175 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +9.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_19_PIT_BAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 42 — under by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| +3.3 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 8% | +3.1 |
| Van Jefferson | 2 | 2 | 37 | 1 | 8% | +3.4 |
| Calvin Austin | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 8% | +0.5 |
| Jaylen Warren | 4 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 19% | −0.7 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 15% | −3.1 |
| Darnell Washington | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 12% | +0.2 |
| 5 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Cameron Heyward | 1 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Payton Wilson | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joey Porter | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| DeShon Elliott | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Damontae Kazee | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiahh Loudermilk | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keeanu Benton | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 26 | 186 | 7.2 | 2 | +5.3 |
| Lamar Jackson | 15 | 81 | 5.4 | 0 | +1.7 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Justice Hill | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Likely | 3 | 4 | 53 | 0 | 21% | +3.0 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 16% | +1.7 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 5% | +1.3 |
| Rashod Bateman | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 | 11% | +3.9 |
| Tylan Wallace | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 11% | +1.0 |
| Justice Hill | 4 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 21% | +2.3 |
| Anthony Miller | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 16% | −1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ar'Darius Washington | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roquan Smith | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malik Harrison | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Stephens | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Broderick Washington | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Odafe Oweh | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Wiggins | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Ojabo | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
