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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
2024 Wild Card · Sat, Jan 11, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
SteelersPittsburgh14
BY 14final margin
RavensBaltimore28
Pittsburgh Steelers 14 at Baltimore Ravens 28. Final.
Ravens -9.5 ✓U 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Wild Card
Baltimore Ravens 28, Steelers 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 4:50, 3rd and 13, on Rashod Bateman — 5.8 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 4:50 · 3rd and 13
Rashod Bateman
Ravens
(4:50) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 7-R.Bateman for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
27°F
Ravens closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Baltimore Ravens 28–14. Biggest swing: Q1 4:50, Ravens +5.8% win probability on one snap.
5.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetSteelersQ1 12:08(12:08) 8-C.Waitman punts 54 yards to BAL 7, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 18-S.Sims MUFFS catch, and recovers at BAL 1. 18-S.Sims to BAL 5 for 4 yards (15-B.Skowronek).
5.3pts
Justice HillSteelersQ1 5:26(5:26) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill left end pushed ob at PIT 15 for -3 yards (41-P.Wilson).
3.6pts
What separated them
Red zone
Ravens won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Steelers at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.23 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.15 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Steelers at 6 chunk plays.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Steelers150 of 160 plays carry both curves
(4:50) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 7-R.Bateman for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +5.8 for RavensExpected points +3.61 for RavensThe model had Steelers 15 points higher than the market did.play 23
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 4:50BAL +6% win prob(4:50) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 7-R.Bateman for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:08BAL +5% win prob(12:08) 8-C.Waitman punts 54 yards to BAL 7, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 18-S.Sims MUFFS catch, and recovers at BAL 1. 18-S.Sims to BAL 5 for 4 yards (15-B.Skowronek).
1st · 5:26PIT +4% win prob(5:26) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill left end pushed ob at PIT 15 for -3 yards (41-P.Wilson).
1st · 14:18BAL +3% win prob(14:18) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren up the middle to PIT 33 for 4 yards (40-M.Harrison; 98-T.Jones).
1st · 11:21BAL +3% win prob(11:21) 74-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 80-I.Likely to BAL 13 for 9 yards (6-P.Queen).
2nd · 7:24BAL +2% win prob(7:24) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles left guard to PIT 44 for 20 yards (41-P.Wilson). PENALTY on PIT-24-J.Porter, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 44.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Rashod Bateman's 15-yard touchdown catch with 4:50 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
3rd3:32George Pickens·36-yd TD catch36-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+714–28
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryRavens
Steelers0–8Ravens
281Total yards465
6.4Yards per play6.6
39%Success rate51%
45%Third-down rate67%
0Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays10
11First downs26
4Sacks taken1
0Turnovers0
The read
Ravens ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.12Steelers: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.30Ravens: +0.30 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.18Steelers: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.43Ravens: +0.43 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.15Steelers: −0.15 expected points added per play
+0.23Ravens: +0.23 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 44 snaps at a 82% dropback rate against Ravens’s 70 at 36%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 2, Ravens 5.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.30 expected points added per play vs 0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's early-down pass rate, 78.1%, sat 29.9 points above their season number of 48.2% — they passed early by 3.7 times their own 8.1-point weekly swing.
32 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
PIT's pass rate over expected, +14.5 pts, sat 20.7 points above their season number of −6.3 pts — they threw more than the situation asked by 3.1 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
44 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2024 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 17 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −12.6 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.65× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Ravens22.2%
leaned — got home · +5.6 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+1.05× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NotePIT's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 78.1%, 29.9 points above their season mean of 48.2% and 3.7 times their own 8.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Derrick Henry+7% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:17) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry left tackle to PIT 12 for 34 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick; 26-D.Jackson).
Q1 6:17 · Ravens · 1st & 10 at PIT 46 · gained 34 · +2.02 EP · +6.8% win probability
148 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 160 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 148 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 155. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 98 yards from the PIT 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
160 of 160 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
160
EPA per play
+0.14
Success rate
46%
Yards
744
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.0784%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR30+0.4440%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR16+0.166%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13-0.1931%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.2563%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR8+0.9350%
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
snapsepapass rate
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 39
Steelers0Ravens6
Steelers0Ravens7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Ravens 5 to the Steelers 12
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Steelers 38
The period ended6 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Steelers 47
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Ravens 49 to the Steelers 46
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 29
Steelers0Ravens13
Steelers0Ravens14
Touchdown15 plays, from the Ravens 15 to the Steelers 8
Punt9 plays, from the Steelers 29 to the Steelers 44
Steelers0Ravens20
Steelers0Ravens21
Touchdown14 plays, from the Ravens 10 to the Steelers 5
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Ravens 49
Steelers6Ravens21
Steelers7Ravens21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Steelers 2 to the Ravens 30
Steelers7Ravens27
Steelers7Ravens28
Touchdown6 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Steelers 44
Steelers13Ravens28
Steelers14Ravens28
Touchdown7 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Ravens 36
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Ravens 31
The period ended8 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 44
4th quarter34 plays
Punt1 play
Punt11 plays, from the Ravens 17 to the Ravens 46
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Ravens 38
The period ended14 plays, from the Ravens 43 to the Steelers 12
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
