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2024 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 12, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
CommandersWashington23
BY 3final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay20
Washington Commanders 23 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20. Final.
Buccaneers -3 upset
The verdict · 2024 Wild Card
Washington Commanders 23, Buccaneers 20 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 4:45, 4th and 3, on Chase McLaughlin — 47.1 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:45 · 4th and 3
Chase McLaughlin
Buccaneers
(4:45) 4-C.McLaughlin 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.
U 51.5 ✓
Buccaneers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Washington Commanders 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:45, Buccaneers +47.1% win probability on one snap.
47.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetCommandersQ4 11:58(11:58) 6-B.Mayfield FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 12, touched at TB 13, RECOVERED by WAS-54-B.Wagner at TB 13. 54-B.Wagner to TB 13 for no gain (6-B.Mayfield).
25.8pts
Terry McLaurinCommandersQ4 9:50(9:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
20.2pts
What separated them
Red zone
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Commanders at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Commanders won this one — no giveaways, against Buccaneers at 1 giveaway.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Commanders won this one — -0.17 expected points per carry, against Buccaneers at -0.35 expected points per carry.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Commanders146 of 158 plays carry both curves
(4:45) 4-C.McLaughlin 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.
Swing +47.1 for BuccaneersExpected points +0.22 for BuccaneersModel and market agree here.play 141
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 4:45TB +47% win prob(4:45) 4-C.McLaughlin 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.
4th · 11:58WAS +26% win prob(11:58) 6-B.Mayfield FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 12, touched at TB 13, RECOVERED by WAS-54-B.Wagner at TB 13. 54-B.Wagner to TB 13 for no gain (6-B.Mayfield).
4th · 9:50TB +20% win prob(9:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 14:05WAS +18% win prob(14:05) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 86-Z.Ertz.
4th · 3:20TB +16% win prob(3:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep middle to 2-D.Brown to TB 45 for 21 yards (31-A.Winfield; 32-J.Hayes).
3rd · 1:19TB +15% win prob(1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to TB 23 for 14 yards (21-M.Edwards).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Zane Gonzalez's 37-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Washington Commanders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st11:40Chase McLaughlin·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder J.Browning · snap E.Deckers+30–3
4th4:45Chase McLaughlin·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder J.Browning · snap E.Deckers+320–20
4th0:03Zane Gonzalez·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap T.OttLead never changed again+323–20
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Commanders3–4Buccaneers
355Total yards284
5.3Yards per play6.5
43%Success rate52%
53%Third-down rate56%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays7
19First downs16
1Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Buccaneers ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Commanders, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Commanders: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.11Buccaneers: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.30Commanders: +0.30 expected points added per play
+0.53Buccaneers: +0.53 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.17Commanders: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.35Buccaneers: −0.35 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 67 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 44 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 6, Buccaneers 3.
NoteCommanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs 0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2024 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 16 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.1 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−1.65× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Buccaneers12.5%
right on their number · −3.0 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteWAS's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 4.3%, 10.1 points below their season mean of 14.4% and 1.7 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 7 inactive
67Nick AllegrettiG · Every snap100%73 snaps
71Andrew WylieT · Every snap100%73 snaps
76Sam CosmiG · Every snap100%73 snaps
74Brandon ColemanT · Every snap100%73 snaps
5Jayden DanielsQB · Every snap100%73 snaps
63Tyler BiadaszC · Every snap100%73 snaps
17Terry McLaurinWR · Heavy rotation78%57 snaps
14Olamide ZaccheausWR · Heavy rotation68%50 snaps
86Zach ErtzTE · Heavy rotation63%46 snaps
2Dyami BrownWR · Heavy rotation62%45 snaps
87John BatesTE · Heavy rotation52%38 snaps
8Brian RobinsonRB · Heavy rotation51%37 snaps
30Austin EkelerRB · Rotational47%34 snaps
12Luke McCaffreyWR · Situational23%17 snaps
19Chris MooreWR · Situational16%12 snaps
80Jamison CrowderWR · Situational15%11 snaps
26Jeremy McNicholsRB · Situational14%10 snaps
82Ben SinnottTE · Situational10%7 snaps
18Marcus MariotaQB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Michael DavisCBDarrick ForrestFSChris PaulGJeff DriskelQBChris Rodriguez Jr.RBDominique HamptonSSK.J. OsbornWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Chase McLaughlin+46% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(4:45) 4-C.McLaughlin 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.
Q4 4:45 · Buccaneers · 4th & 3 at WAS 14 · gained nothing · +0.22 EP · +45.6% win probability
144 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 159 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 144 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 153. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 92 yards from the WAS 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
159 of 159 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
159
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
48%
Yards
634
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.1051%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.0352%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.4371%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.4422%
Commanders2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR5+0.8120%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Commanders0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Commanders0Buccaneers3
Field goal9 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Commanders 32
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Commanders 33 to the Buccaneers 20
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Commanders 49
The period ended7 plays, from the Commanders 8 to the Commanders 43
2nd quarter46 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Commanders6Buccaneers3
Commanders7Buccaneers3
Touchdown14 plays, from the Buccaneers 45 to the Buccaneers 8
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Buccaneers 31
Commanders10Buccaneers3
Field goal12 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Buccaneers 33
Commanders10Buccaneers9
Commanders10Buccaneers10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Buccaneers 26 to the Commanders 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.3 seconds
Commanders13Buccaneers10
Field goal11 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Buccaneers 3
Commanders13Buccaneers16
Commanders13Buccaneers17
Touchdown15 plays, from the Buccaneers 28 to the Commanders 2
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
The period ended13 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Buccaneers 19
4th quarter42 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Buccaneers 23 to the Buccaneers 1
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Buccaneers 4 to the Buccaneers 15
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Commanders19Buccaneers17
Commanders20Buccaneers17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Buccaneers 13 to the Buccaneers 5
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Commanders20Buccaneers20
Field goal9 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Commanders 12
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Commanders23Buccaneers20
Field goal16 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Buccaneers 15
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -3
Closing total
51.5
Commanders moneyline
+136
Buccaneers moneyline
-162
Buccaneers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 43 — under by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 56°F at kickoff; still at 2 mph out of the north; partly cloudy.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Commanders 7 days · Buccaneers 7 days
Coaches
Dan Quinn vs Todd Bowles
4th · 15:00
TB +15% win prob
(15:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep left to 2-D.Brown. ** Injury Update: TB-27-Z.McCollum has returned to the game. PENALTY on TB-27-Z.McCollum, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at TB 23 - No Play.
4th · 0:03TB +14% win prob(:03) 47-Z.Gonzalez 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
