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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 12, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Wild Card
It turned at Q4 4:45, 4th and 3, on Chase McLaughlin — 47.1 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
Washington Commanders 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:45, Buccaneers +47.1% win probability on one snap.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:45 · 4th and 3
Chase McLaughlin
Buccaneers
(4:45) 4-C.McLaughlin 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.
47.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Commanders at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Commanders won this one — no giveaways, against Buccaneers at 1 giveaway.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Commanders won this one — -0.17 expected points per carry, against Buccaneers at -0.35 expected points per carry.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
(4:45) 4-C.McLaughlin 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Zane Gonzalez's 37-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Washington Commanders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Zane Gonzalez37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap T.OttLead never changed again+323–209 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Commanderscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Buccaneers ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Commanders, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 67 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 44 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 6, Buccaneers 3.
Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs 0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2024 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Commanders1.3 ptsright on their number · +1.6 vs their -0.3 pts, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 67 snaps
Buccaneers-10.2 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −10.2 vs their -0.0 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−1.63× that swing) · 44 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 29% to 81%
Tendencies room →Commanders51.1%right on their number · −4.1 vs their 55.1%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 47 early downs
Buccaneers42.9%leaned — ran early · −12.4 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−1.22× that swing) · 35 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 50%
Tendencies room →Commanders22.5%right on their number · −3.6 vs their 26.1%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Buccaneers30.4%leaned — faked the run · +11.1 vs their 19.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+1.28× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -54% to 128%
Fourth Down room →Commanders83.3%leaned — went for it · +31.7 vs their 51.7%, and they swing ±29.2 week to week (+1.09× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
Buccaneers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 21.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 91%
Tendencies room →Commanders21.7%leaned — sat back · −15.1 vs their 36.9%, and they swing ±10.7 week to week (−1.42× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Buccaneers40.0%right on their number · −3.9 vs their 43.9%, and they swing ±18.3 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 31%
Tendencies room →Commanders4.3%leaned — stayed blocked · −10.1 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−1.65× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Buccaneers12.5%right on their number · −3.0 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
WAS's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 4.3%, 10.1 points below their season mean of 14.4% and 1.7 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · WAS
24/35, 268 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
11.1 expected points added · +10.3% completion over expected
Passing · TB
15/18, 185 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
13.5 expected points added · +20.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Dyami Brown banked 9.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden DanielsQB · Starter QB | 22.3 | −11.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/35, 268 yd, 2 TD · 13 car, 36 yd |
| Mike EvansWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.2 | +8.1 | 81% | 83% | 41% | 46% | 7/7, 92 yd, 1 TD |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Alpha Receiver | 21.9 | −0.7 | 78% | 83% | 31% | 60% | 7/10, 89 yd, 1 TD |
| Dyami BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 19.9 | +9.5 | 62% | 57% | 16% | 23% | 5/5, 89 yd, 1 TD |
| Bucky IrvingRB · Bell Cow Back | 16.3 | −0.1 | 69% | 43% | 12% | 0% | 17 car, 77 yd · 2/2, 6 yd, 1 TD |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 15.7 | +0.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/18, 185 yd, 2 TD · 7 car, 23 yd |
| Austin EkelerRB · Receiving Back | 8.3 | −2.0 | 47% | 50% | 13% | 5% | 8 car, 27 yd · 3/4, 26 yd |
| Brian RobinsonRB · Committee Back | 7.8 | −11.1 | 51% | 50% | 16% | 0% | 10 car, 16 yd · 4/5, 22 yd |
| Jalen McMillanWR · Featured Receiver | 6.1 | −1.6 | 91% | 96% | 24% | 46% | 2/4, 41 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | +2.0 | 96% | 100% | 12% | 9% | 2/2, 32 yd |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | +0.5 | 68% | 63% | 9% | 0% | 3/3, 19 yd |
| Zach ErtzTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | −4.5 | 63% | 80% | 13% | 16% | 2/4, 23 yd |
| Rachaad WhiteRB · Receiving Back | 3.5 | −0.5 | 37% | 65% | 12% | 3% | 1 car, 1 yd · 2/2, 14 yd |
| Marcus MariotaQB | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Jeremy McNicholsRB | 0.1 | −0.3 | 14% | 8% | 0% | — | 1 car, 1 yd |
| Ryan MillerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| John BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.4 | 52% | 48% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jamison CrowderWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 15% | 13% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Luke McCaffreyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 23% | 30% | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:45) 4-C.McLaughlin 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.
Q4 4:45 · Buccaneers · 4th & 3 at WAS 14 · gained nothing · +0.22 EP · +45.6% win probability
144 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 159 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 144 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 153. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 92 yards from the WAS 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Commanders0
Buccaneers3How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
Commanders6Buccaneers3Commanders7Buccaneers3Commanders10Buccaneers3Commanders10Buccaneers9Commanders10Buccaneers10How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Commanders13Buccaneers10Commanders13Buccaneers16Commanders13Buccaneers17How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Commanders19Buccaneers17Commanders20Buccaneers17How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Commanders20Buccaneers20How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
Commanders23Buccaneers20Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Commanders at Buccaneers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 24/35 | 268 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +11.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Austin Ekeler | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Brian Robinson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 7 | 10 | 89 | 1 | 31% | +6.5 |
| Dyami Brown | 5 | 5 | 89 | 1 | 16% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Wagner | 5 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Chinn | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marshon Lattimore |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 15/18 | 185 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +13.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_19_WAS_TB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 43 — under by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
| 10 |
| 16 |
| 1.6 |
| 0 |
| −4.1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| +9.4 |
| Austin Ekeler | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 13% | −2.1 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 13% | +0.8 |
| Brian Robinson | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 16% | −1.5 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 9% | +1.6 |
| John Bates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Frankie Luvu | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorance Armstrong | 0 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Quan Martin | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Clelin Ferrell | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mykal Walker | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jer'Zhan Newton | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Fowler | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 17 | 77 | 4.5 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 | −7.5 |
| Rachaad White | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 7 | 7 | 92 | 1 | 41% | +10.1 |
| Jalen McMillan | 2 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 24% | −0.2 |
| Cade Otton | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 12% | +2.5 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 12% | +1.2 |
| Bucky Irving | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 12% | +0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lavonte David | 3 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antoine Winfield | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tykee Smith | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Hall | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K.J. Britt | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Edwards | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Nelson | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Gaines | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamel Dean | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Hayes | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
