For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2024 Wild Card · Sun, Jan 12, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium

Washington CommandersWinner

23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

20

TB -3 upsetU 51.5 ✓

Washington Commanders 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:45, TB +47% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3TB ↑WAS ↓
Q4 · 4:45WAS 20 — TB 20TB ball · 4th & 3TB 53%

(4:45) 4-C.McLaughlin 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 4:45TB +47% win prob(4:45) 4-C.McLaughlin 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.
  2. Q4 · 11:58WAS +26% win prob(11:58) 6-B.Mayfield FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 12, touched at TB 13, RECOVERED by WAS-54-B.Wagner at TB 13. 54-B.Wagner to TB 13 for no gain (6-B.Mayfield).
  3. Q4 · 9:50TB +20% win prob(9:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 14:05WAS +18% win prob(14:05) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 86-Z.Ertz.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:40TB Field goal

    (11:40) 4-C.McLaughlin 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning. Penalty on WAS-39-J.Reaves, Defensive Offside, declined.

    Score after this play: WAS 0 — TB 3
  2. Q2 · 9:31WAS Touchdown

    (9:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 2-D.Brown for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on TB-0-Y.Diaby, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 7 — TB 3
  3. Q2 · 1:57WAS Field goal

    (1:57) 47-Z.Gonzalez 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: WAS 10 — TB 3
  4. Q2 · 0:13TB Touchdown

    (:13) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 10 — TB 10
  5. Q3 · 10:33WAS Field goal

    (10:33) 47-Z.Gonzalez 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: WAS 13 — TB 10
  6. Q3 · 4:34TB Touchdown

    (4:34) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 7-B.Irving for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 13 — TB 17
  7. Q4 · 9:50WAS Touchdown

    (9:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 20 — TB 17
  8. Q4 · 4:45TB Field goal

    (4:45) 4-C.McLaughlin 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.

    Score after this play: WAS 20 — TB 20
  9. Q4 · 0:03WAS Field goal

    (:03) 47-Z.Gonzalez 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: WAS 23 — TB 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCommandersBuccaneers
Offensive plays6744
Total yards355 (edge)284
Yards per play5.36.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.11 (edge)0.11
Success rate43%52% (edge)
Dropback rate60%52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.300.53 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.17 (edge)-0.35
Third downs8/155/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)57 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps19 (edge)16
Sacks taken11
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs 0.11.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Jayden DanielsQB

24/35, 268 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

11.1 expected points added · +10.3% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

15/18, 185 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

13.5 expected points added · +20.2% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Bucky IrvingRB

17 att, 77 yds, 0 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Jayden DanielsQB

13 att, 36 yds, 0 TD

-1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

7/7 for 92 yds, 1 TD

41% of team targets · 10.1 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

7/10 for 89 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 6.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TBTB 309383:25Field goal +3
2WASWAS 338473:49Turnover on downs
3TBTB 207314:12Punt
4WASWAS 818929:08Touchdown +7
5TBTB 305162:06Punt
6WASWAS 3011325:28Field goal +3
7TBTB 269631:42Touchdown +7
8WASWAS 26200:10End of half
9WASWAS 3011664:30Field goal +3
10TBTB 2812645:59Touchdown +7
11WASWAS 3013505:30Turnover on downs
12TBTB 44112:05Fumble
13WASTB 135132:10Touchdown +7
14TBTB 259615:05Field goal +3
15WASWAS 3011554:41Field goal +3

9 of 15 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 92 scrimmage yards over 18 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jayden Daniels24/3526820111.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jayden Daniels13362.80-1.5
Austin Ekeler8273.401.2
Brian Robinson10161.60-4.1
Marcus Mariota122.000.5
Jeremy McNichols111.00-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Terry McLaurin71089131%6.5
Dyami Brown5589116%9.4
Austin Ekeler3426013%-2.1
Zach Ertz2423013%0.8
Brian Robinson4522016%-1.5
Olamide Zaccheaus331909%1.6
John Bates01003%-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Bobby Wagner530.500
Jeremy Chinn440.000
Marshon Lattimore430.000
Dorance Armstrong040.500
Quan Martin220.000
Frankie Luvu310.000
Jer'Zhan Newton200.000
Clelin Ferrell110.000
Mykal Walker110.000
Percy Butler100.000

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Baker Mayfield15/1818520113.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bucky Irving17774.50-1.1
Baker Mayfield7233.30-7.5
Rachaad White111.00-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Mike Evans7792141%10.1
Jalen McMillan2441024%-0.2
Cade Otton2232012%2.5
Rachaad White2214012%1.2
Bucky Irving226112%0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Lavonte David351.000
Antoine Winfield340.000
Tykee Smith520.000
Logan Hall420.000
Anthony Nelson140.000
K.J. Britt320.000
Mike Edwards410.000
Greg Gaines130.000
Jamel Dean310.001
Josh Hayes130.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
TB -3
Closing total
51.5
WAS moneyline
+136
TB moneyline
-162

Buccaneers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 51.5; the game landed 43 — under by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
58°F, wind 2 mph
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
WAS 7 days · TB 7 days
Coaches
Dan Quinn vs Todd Bowles