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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Divisional Round · Sun, Jan 19, 2025 · New Era Field
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Divisional Round
It turned at Q2 11:16, 2nd and 10, on Lamar Jackson — 22.7 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 11:16 · 2nd and 10
Lamar Jackson
Bills
(11:16) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BUF 34 for -6 yards (3-D.Hamlin). FUMBLES (3-D.Hamlin) [3-D.Hamlin], RECOVERED by BUF-40-V.Miller at BUF 37. 40-V.Miller to BAL 24 for 39 yards (43-J.Hill).
Buffalo Bills 27–25 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 11:16, Bills +22.7% win probability on one snap.
22.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 13 chunk plays, against Bills at 4 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Bills won this one — no giveaways, against Ravens at 3 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 10 on third down, against Bills at 5 of 11 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Bills won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Ravens at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
(11:16) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BUF 34 for -6 yards (3-D.Hamlin). FUMBLES (3-D.Hamlin) [3-D.Hamlin], RECOVERED by BUF-40-V.Miller at BUF 37. 40-V.Miller to BAL 24 for 39 yards (43-J.Hill).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Josh Allen's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 8:54 left in the 2nd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Isaiah Likely24-yd TD catch24-yard touchdown catchfrom Lamar Jackson · two-point no good+625–2710 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ravenscategory by categoryBills
Ravens ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bills, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 58 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Bills’s 57 at 40%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 4, Bills 4.
Ravens outgained Bills 417-275 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's play-action rate, 34.8%, sat 17.0 points above their season number of 17.8% — they faked the run by 2.4 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2024 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Ravens-7.2 ptsright on their number · +0.6 vs their -7.7 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 56 snaps
Bills-11.8 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.7 vs their -2.1 pts, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−1.20× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 81%
Tendencies room →Ravens53.3%right on their number · +6.2 vs their 47.1%, and they swing ±13.2 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 45 early downs
Bills37.8%leaned — ran early · −14.3 vs their 52.1%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 55%
Tendencies room →Ravens27.3%right on their number · +1.8 vs their 25.4%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+0.16× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Bills34.8%off script — faked the run · +17.0 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+2.40× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 109%
Fourth Down room →Ravens—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 40.0%.
Bills33.3%right on their number · −8.3 vs their 41.7%, and they swing ±24.5 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 53%
Tendencies room →Ravens26.1%right on their number · +3.4 vs their 22.7%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Bills30.3%inside their normal wobble · +7.8 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 30%
Tendencies room →Ravens13.0%inside their normal wobble · −3.6 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Bills15.2%right on their number · +0.3 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
BUF's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 34.8%, 17.0 points above their season mean of 17.8% and 2.4 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · BAL
18/25, 254 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
4.6 expected points added · +8.9% completion over expected
Passing · BUF
16/22, 127 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-1.7 expected points added · +5.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Isaiah Likely banked 7.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 19.1 | −2.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/22, 127 yd · 10 car, 20 yd, 2 TD |
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 18.1 | +0.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/25, 254 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 6 car, 39 yd |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Featured Receiver | 17.3 | +7.4 | 80% | 76% | 20% | 33% | 4/5, 73 yd, 1 TD |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Featured Receiver | 16.6 | +5.4 | 63% | 67% | 20% | 33% | 4/5, 66 yd, 1 TD |
| Derrick HenryRB · Committee Back | 14.4 | −0.1 | 59% | 42% | 8% | 6% | 16 car, 84 yd, 1 TD · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.7 | +1.5 | 67% | 78% | 33% | 37% | 6/7, 67 yd |
| James CookRB · Committee Back | 11.2 | −4.5 | 52% | 57% | 14% | 0% | 17 car, 67 yd · 3/3, 15 yd |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Alpha Receiver | 9.4 | −3.0 | 69% | 82% | 28% | 23% | 2 car, 3 yd · 5/7, 61 yd |
| Ray DavisRB | 8.9 | +3.6 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Justice HillRB | 7.7 | +1.6 | 41% | 45% | 8% | 0% | 6 car, 50 yd · 2/2, 7 yd |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 4.9 | +0.8 | 34% | 35% | 5% | 0% | 5 car, 31 yd · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Tylan WallaceWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | +2.5 | 49% | 48% | 4% | 4% | 1/1, 27 yd |
| Curtis SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −0.2 | 31% | 43% | 10% | 2% | 2/2, 9 yd |
| Anthony MillerWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | +1.1 | 14% | 18% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 16 yd |
| Mack HollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | −1.0 | 52% | 43% | 10% | 25% | 1/2, 12 yd |
| Dalton KincaidTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −1.5 | 51% | 52% | 10% | 16% | 1/2, 11 yd |
| Keon ColemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | 0.0 | 66% | 61% | 5% | 2% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Steven SimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −1.8 | 57% | 57% | 10% | 21% | 1/2, 0 yd |
| Charlie KolarTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 20% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 44% | 33% | 4% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Keaton MitchellRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Reggie GilliamRB | 0.0 | — | 18% | 13% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Amari CooperWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 34% | 43% | 5% | 5% | 0/1, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:16) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BUF 34 for -6 yards (3-D.Hamlin). FUMBLES (3-D.Hamlin) [3-D.Hamlin], RECOVERED by BUF-40-V.Miller at BUF 37. 40-V.Miller to BAL 24 for 39 yards (43-J.Hill).
Q2 11:16 · Ravens · 2nd & 10 at BUF 28 · lost 9 · -8.03 EP · −24.1% win probability
145 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 158 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 145 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 153. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 88 yards from the BAL 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Ravens6
Bills0Ravens7Bills0Ravens7Bills6Ravens7Bills7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Ravens7Bills13Ravens7Bills14Ravens10Bills14Ravens10Bills20Ravens10Bills21Ravens13Bills21Ravens19Bills21Ravens19Bills24Ravens19Bills27Ravens25Bills27How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, dropped.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Ravens at Bills, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 18/25 | 254 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +4.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 16 | 84 | 5.3 | 1 | +1.6 |
| Justice Hill | 6 | 50 | 8.3 | 0 | +1.9 |
| Lamar Jackson | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 | +3.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Likely | 4 | 5 | 73 | 1 | 20% | +4.9 |
| Rashod Bateman | 4 | 5 | 66 | 1 | 20% | +3.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Hamilton | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roquan Smith | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | 2 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Harrison |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 16/22 | 127 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −1.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_20_BAL_BUF
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 52 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | +2.3 |
| Mark Andrews | 5 | 7 | 61 | 0 | 28% | −1.6 |
| Tylan Wallace | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 | 4% | +1.9 |
| Anthony Miller | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 4% | +2.5 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 8% | +0.3 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | −0.1 |
| Derrick Henry | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −1.3 |
| Nelson Agholor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Ar'Darius Washington | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tavius Robinson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Wiggins | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Jones | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Van Noy | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 |
| 67 |
| 3.9 |
| 0 |
| −0.5 |
| Ty Johnson | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Ray Davis | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 1 | +2.8 |
| Josh Allen | 10 | 20 | 2.0 | 2 | +1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 6 | 7 | 67 | 0 | 33% | +2.4 |
| James Cook | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 14% | −0.1 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 10% | +0.1 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 10% | −0.2 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 10% | +1.3 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 5% | +0.7 |
| Keon Coleman | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5% | +0.2 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −2.9 |
| Amari Cooper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damar Hamlin | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Epenesa | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gregory Rousseau | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Benford | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrel Bernard | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taron Johnson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ed Oliver | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Lewis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorian Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
