2024 Divisional Round · Sun, Jan 19, 2025 · New Era Field

Baltimore Ravens

Buffalo BillsWinner

BAL -1.5 upsetO 51.5 ✓19°FRavens closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Buffalo Bills 27–25 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 11:16, BAL +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 11:16BAL 7 — BUF 7BAL ball · 2nd & 10BAL 65%

(11:16) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BUF 34 for -6 yards (3-D.Hamlin). FUMBLES (3-D.Hamlin) [3-D.Hamlin], RECOVERED by BUF-40-V.Miller at BUF 37. 40-V.Miller to BAL 24 for 39 yards (43-J.Hill).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 11:16BAL +23% win prob(11:16) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BUF 34 for -6 yards (3-D.Hamlin). FUMBLES (3-D.Hamlin) [3-D.Hamlin], RECOVERED by BUF-40-V.Miller at BUF 37. 40-V.Miller to BAL 24 for 39 yards (43-J.Hill).
Q2 · 6:05BUF +13% win prob(6:05) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 7-R.Bateman to BUF 2 for 42 yards (31-R.Douglas).
Q4 · 8:50BAL +12% win prob(8:50) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 89-M.Andrews to BUF 44 for 16 yards (43-T.Bernard). FUMBLES (43-T.Bernard), touched at BUF 44, RECOVERED by BUF-43-T.Bernard at BUF 46.
Q4 · 1:33BAL +11% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-L.Jackson pass to 89-M.Andrews is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. ** Injury Update: BAL-7-R.Bateman has returned to the game.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:46BAL Touchdown
(10:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 7-R.Bateman for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 7 — BUF 0
Q1 · 4:46BUF Touchdown
(4:46) 22-R.Davis right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 7 — BUF 7
Q2 · 8:54BUF Touchdown
(8:54) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 7 — BUF 14
Q2 · 3:46BAL Field goal
(3:46) 9-J.Tucker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: BAL 10 — BUF 14
Q2 · 0:20BUF Touchdown
(:20) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 10 — BUF 21
Q3 · 9:51BAL Field goal
(9:51) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: BAL 13 — BUF 21
Q3 · 1:41BAL Touchdown
(1:41) 22-D.Henry right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: BAL 19 — BUF 21
Q4 · 12:08BUF Field goal
(12:08) 2-T.Bass 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: BAL 19 — BUF 24
Q4 · 3:31BUF Field goal
(3:31) 2-T.Bass 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: BAL 19 — BUF 27
Q4 · 1:44BAL Touchdown
(1:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 80-I.Likely for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: BAL 25 — BUF 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Bills
Offensive plays	58	57
Total yards	417 (edge)	275
Yards per play	7.2 (edge)	4.8
Expected points added / play	0.14 (edge)	0.08
Success rate	52% (edge)	49%
Dropback rate	57%	40%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.10 (edge)	-0.08
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.19 (edge)	0.18
Third downs	7/10 (edge)	5/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	13 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	26 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Ravens outgained Bills 417–275 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

18/25, 254 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

4.6 expected points added · +8.9% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

16/22, 127 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-1.7 expected points added · +5.5% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Derrick HenryRB

16 att, 84 yds, 1 TD

1.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

17 att, 67 yds, 0 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Isaiah LikelyTE

4/5 for 73 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Khalil ShakirWR

6/7 for 67 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 27	10	73	4:20	Touchdown +7
2	BUF	BUF 30	13	70	5:57	Touchdown +7
3	BAL	BAL 28	3	-1	0:51	Interception
4	BUF	BUF 43	5	9	3:11	Punt
5	BAL	BAL 9	9	54	4:36	Fumble
6	BUF	BAL 24	5	24	2:13	Touchdown +7
7	BAL	BAL 35	10	57	5:09	Field goal +3
8	BUF	BUF 30	11	52	3:27	Touchdown +7
9	BAL	BAL 33	2	0	0:16	End of half
10	BUF	BUF 25	5	1	1:12	Punt
11	BAL	BAL 36	9	40	4:01	Field goal +3
12	BUF	BUF 30	8	18	4:26	Punt
13	BAL	BAL 20	8	80	3:44	Touchdown +6
14	BUF	BUF 30	11	37	4:33	Field goal +3
15	BAL	BAL 30	7	26	3:23	Fumble
16	BUF	BUF 46	11	47	5:12	Field goal +3
17	BAL	BAL 12	10	88	1:56	Touchdown +6
18	BUF	BAL 47	4	17	1:33	End of game

10 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 88 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	18/25	254	2	1	2	4.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	16	84	5.3	1	1.6
Justice Hill	6	50	8.3	0	1.9
Lamar Jackson	6	39	6.5	0	3.0
Mark Andrews	2	3	1.5	0	2.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Isaiah Likely	4	5	73	1	20%	4.9
Rashod Bateman	4	5	66	1	20%	3.1
Mark Andrews	5	7	61	0	28%	-1.6
Tylan Wallace	1	1	27	0	4%	1.9
Anthony Miller	1	1	16	0	4%	2.5
Justice Hill	2	2	7	0	8%	0.3
Steven Sims	1	1	4	0	4%	-0.1
Derrick Henry	0	2	0	0	8%	-1.3
Nelson Agholor	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Kyle Hamilton	6	3	0.0
Roquan Smith	3	5	0.0
Nnamdi Madubuike	2	5	0.5
Malik Harrison	4	2	0.0
Ar'Darius Washington	2	2	0.0
Tavius Robinson	3	1	0.0
Nate Wiggins	3	1	0.0
Marlon Humphrey	2	2	0.0
Travis Jones	1	2	0.0
Kyle Van Noy	1	2	0.5

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	16/22	127	0	0	1	-1.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Cook	17	67	3.9	0	-0.5
Ty Johnson	5	31	6.2	0	0.5
Ray Davis	4	29	7.3	1	2.8
Josh Allen	10	20	2.0	2	1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Khalil Shakir	6	7	67	33%	2.4
James Cook	3	3	15	14%	-0.1
Mack Hollins	1	2	12	10%	0.1
Dalton Kincaid	1	2	11	10%	-0.2
Curtis Samuel	2	2	9	10%	1.3
Ty Johnson	1	1	8	5%	0.7
Keon Coleman	1	1	5	5%	0.2
Dawson Knox	1	2	0	10%	-2.9
Amari Cooper	0	1	0	5%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Damar Hamlin	5	3	1.0	0
Rasul Douglas	4	2	0.0	0
A.J. Epenesa	2	3	0.0	0
Gregory Rousseau	4	1	1.0	0
Christian Benford	3	2	0.0	0
Terrel Bernard	3	1	0.0	0
Taron Johnson	2	1	0.0	1
Ed Oliver	2	1	0.0	0
Cameron Lewis	2	1	0.0	0
Dorian Williams	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -1.5
Closing total: 51.5
BAL moneyline: -118
BUF moneyline: -102

Ravens closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 51.5; the game landed 52 — over by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 19°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: BAL 8 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Sean McDermott