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2024 Divisional Round · Sat, Jan 18, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Houston Texans

14

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

23

KC -9.5 no coverU 41.5 ✓23°F · 17 mph

Kansas City Chiefs 23–14. Biggest swing: Q3 4:42, KC +12% win probability on one snap. Played in 17 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3KC ↑HOU ↓
Q3 · 4:42HOU 12 — KC 13HOU ball · 1st & 10KC 81%

(4:42) 75-A.Deculus reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon right tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 4:42KC +12% win prob(4:42) 75-A.Deculus reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon right tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 11:57KC +11% win prob(11:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-M.Edwards].
  3. Q2 · 7:06HOU +9% win prob(7:06) 15-K.Fairbairn 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
  4. Q1 · 15:00KC +8% win prob15-K.Fairbairn kicks 60 yards from HOU 35 to KC 5. 81-N.Remigio to HOU 32 for 63 yards (17-K.Boyd). FUMBLES (17-K.Boyd), recovered by KC-34-S.Perine at HOU 26. PENALTY on HOU-17-K.Boyd, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 13 yards, enforced at HOU 26.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 14:01KC Field goal

    (14:01) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: HOU 0 — KC 3
  2. Q1 · 8:44HOU Field goal

    (8:44) 15-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: HOU 3 — KC 3
  3. Q1 · 4:03KC Field goal

    (4:03) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: HOU 3 — KC 6
  4. Q2 · 4:39KC Touchdown

    (4:39) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 3 — KC 13
  5. Q2 · 0:20HOU Field goal

    (:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: HOU 6 — KC 13
  6. Q3 · 4:42HOU Touchdown

    (4:42) 75-A.Deculus reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon right tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: HOU 12 — KC 13
  7. Q4 · 11:57KC Touchdown

    (11:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-M.Edwards]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 12 — KC 20
  8. Q4 · 4:41KC Field goal

    (4:41) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: HOU 12 — KC 23
  9. Q4 · 0:15HOU Safety

    (:15) (Punt formation) 14-M.Araiza right end ran ob in End Zone for -18 yards, SAFETY (13-D.Phillips).

    Score after this play: HOU 14 — KC 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTexansChiefs
Offensive plays6447
Total yards337 (edge)222
Yards per play5.3 (edge)4.7
Expected points added / play0.10 (edge)0.04
Success rate50% (edge)38%
Dropback rate64%66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.11 (edge)0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.10 (edge)0.08
Third downs10/17 (edge)4/10
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)67 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps18 (edge)12
Sacks taken83 (edge)
Turnovers00

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

19/28, 245 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

1.0 expected points added · +7.1% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

16/25, 177 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-0.5 expected points added · +0.3% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Joe MixonRB

18 att, 88 yds, 1 TD

2.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Kareem HuntRB

8 att, 44 yds, 1 TD

4.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

7/8 for 117 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 10.2 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Nico CollinsWR

5/8 for 81 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1KCHOU 135-11:02Field goal +3
2HOUHOU 2011685:17Field goal +3
3KCKC 3110414:42Field goal +3
4HOUHOU 308123:11Punt
5KCKC 208294:26Punt
6HOUHOU 208434:21Missed field goal
7KCKC 456552:25Touchdown +7
8HOUHOU 3010514:20Field goal +3
9KCKC 26200:16End of half
10HOUHOU 181710110:24Touchdown +6
11KCKC 1915757:44Touchdown +7
12HOUHOU 347101:53Turnover on downs
13KCHOU 44411:27Punt
14HOUHOU 7440:57Punt
15KCHOU 457362:57Field goal +3
16HOUHOU 3012482:52Missed field goal
17KCKC 234-141:35Safety
18HOUHOU 21200:11End of game

8 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 101 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
C.J. Stroud19/282450081.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Joe Mixon18884.912.5
C.J. Stroud6427.003.4
Dameon Pierce4102.50-0.7
Dare Ogunbowale199.000.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Nico Collins5881029%5.4
Dalton Schultz4463014%6.2
Xavier Hutchinson4652021%3.0
John Metchie223507%3.1
Joe Mixon2312011%0.4
Irv Smith11204%-0.4
Dameon Pierce01004%-1.8
Dare Ogunbowale11004%-0.4
Jared Wayne02007%-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Henry To'oTo'o160.000
Azeez Al-Shaair240.000
Myles Bryant310.002
Will Anderson402.000
Danielle Hunter220.000
Derek Stingley300.000
Kamari Lassiter120.000
Neville Hewitt120.000
Eric Murray300.001
Tim Settle110.000

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Patrick Mahomes16/25177103-0.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kareem Hunt8445.514.4
Isiah Pacheco5183.60-0.8
Patrick Mahomes7142.002.2
Xavier Worthy1-8-8.00-1.6
Matt Araiza1-18-18.00-1.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Travis Kelce78117133%10.2
Xavier Worthy5645025%0.9
Noah Gray3313013%-1.1
Kareem Hunt11204%-0.5
Isiah Pacheco01004%-0.8
Samaje Perine01004%-0.6
JuJu Smith-Schuster01004%-1.7
Marquise Brown02008%-1.3
DeAndre Hopkins01004%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Justin Reid520.001
Bryan Cook510.000
Drue Tranquill230.000
Nick Bolton320.000
George Karlaftis413.000
Chamarri Conner321.000
Jaden Hicks410.000
Trent McDuffie310.003
Nazeeh Johnson220.000
Leo Chenal310.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
KC -9.5
Closing total
41.5
HOU moneyline
+410
KC moneyline
-550

Chiefs closed -9.5, won by 9 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 37 — under by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
23°F, wind 17 mph
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
HOU 7 days · KC 13 days
Coaches
DeMeco Ryans vs Andy Reid

Wind at 17 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.