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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Divisional Round · Sat, Jan 18, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Divisional Round
It turned at Q3 4:42, 1st and 10, on Joe Mixon — 11.7 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
Kansas City Chiefs 23–14. Biggest swing: Q3 4:42, Texans +11.7% win probability on one snap.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 4:42 · 1st and 10
Joe Mixon
Texans
(4:42) 75-A.Deculus reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon right tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Texans owned this one and still lost it — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chiefs at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Texans owned this one and still lost it — 10 of 17 on third down, against Chiefs at 4 of 10 on third down.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Chiefs won this one — 2 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Texans at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Texans at 6 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
(4:42) 75-A.Deculus reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon right tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Harrison Butker's 36-yard field goal with 4:03 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Harrison Butker36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.WinchesterLead never changed again+33–69 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Texanscategory by categoryChiefs
Texans ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chiefs, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 64 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 47 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Texans 5, Chiefs 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2024 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 22 pts
Over Expected room →Texans-7.1 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.3 vs their 1.2 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.29× that swing) · 64 snaps
Chiefs10.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their 5.0 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 47 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 31% to 81%
Tendencies room →Texans54.3%right on their number · −1.7 vs their 56.1%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 46 early downs
Chiefs62.9%inside their normal wobble · +4.5 vs their 58.4%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 35 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 42%
Tendencies room →Texans26.8%right on their number · +3.5 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Chiefs16.1%inside their normal wobble · −5.2 vs their 21.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -33% to 92%
Fourth Down room →Texans—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 33.3%.
Chiefs—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 29.8%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 60%
Tendencies room →Texans22.6%right on their number · −2.3 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Chiefs51.2%leaned — sent pressure · +15.4 vs their 35.8%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+1.71× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 43%
Tendencies room →Texans25.8%leaned — got home · +9.9 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.53× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Chiefs34.1%leaned — got home · +16.4 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+1.67× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
KC's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 51.2%, 15.4 points above their season mean of 35.8% and 1.7 times their own 9.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · HOU
19/28, 245 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
1.0 expected points added · +7.1% completion over expected
Passing · KC
16/25, 177 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-0.5 expected points added · +0.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Travis Kelce banked 11.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis KelceTE · Alpha Receiver | 24.7 | +11.6 | 76% | 87% | 33% | 44% | 7/8, 117 yd, 1 TD |
| Joe MixonRB · Bell Cow Back | 18.0 | +5.0 | 53% | 37% | 11% | 0% | 18 car, 88 yd, 1 TD · 2/3, 12 yd |
| C.J. StroudQB · Starter QB | 14.0 | +2.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/28, 245 yd · 6 car, 42 yd |
| Nico CollinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.1 | +2.4 | 82% | 90% | 29% | 37% | 5/8, 81 yd |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 12.5 | −1.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/25, 177 yd, 1 TD · 7 car, 14 yd |
| Kareem HuntRB | 11.6 | +2.5 | 47% | 42% | 4% | 0% | 8 car, 44 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 2 yd |
| Dalton SchultzTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.3 | +5.0 | 78% | 83% | 14% | 19% | 4/4, 63 yd |
| Xavier HutchinsonWR · Featured Receiver | 9.2 | +1.9 | 62% | 66% | 21% | 22% | 4/6, 52 yd |
| Xavier WorthyWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.7 | −3.0 | 82% | 87% | 25% | 6% | 1 car, -8 yd · 5/6, 45 yd |
| John MetchieWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.5 | +2.8 | 57% | 73% | 7% | 11% | 2/2, 35 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | +0.6 | 57% | 45% | 13% | 6% | 3/3, 13 yd |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB | 1.9 | +0.3 | 31% | 46% | 4% | 0% | 1 car, 9 yd · 1/1, 0 yd |
| Isiah PachecoRB | 1.8 | −4.0 | 31% | 29% | 4% | 1% | 5 car, 18 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Irv SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.1 | 31% | 22% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Dameon PierceRB | 1.0 | −1.7 | 21% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 4 car, 10 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jared WayneWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.0 | 35% | 37% | 7% | 15% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Robert WoodsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Samaje PerineRB | 0.0 | −1.0 | 22% | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Marquise BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.4 | 67% | 74% | 8% | 38% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 41% | 42% | 4% | 5% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Nikko RemigioWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 31% | 42% | 4% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:56) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud scrambles right guard to KC 39 for 28 yards (21-J.Hicks).
Q2 9:56 · Texans · 3rd & 9 at HOU 33 · gained 28 · +3.04 EP · +12.3% win probability
148 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 159 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 148 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 154. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 90 yards from the KC 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Texans0
Chiefs3How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Texans3Chiefs3Texans3Chiefs6How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Texans3Chiefs12Texans3Chiefs13Texans6Chiefs13Texans12Chiefs13How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the ball was not catchable.
Texans12Chiefs19Texans12Chiefs20Texans12Chiefs23Texans14Chiefs23Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Texans at Chiefs, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 19/28 | 245 | 0 | 0 | 8 | +1.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 18 | 88 | 4.9 | 1 | +2.5 |
| C.J. Stroud | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 | +3.4 |
| Dameon Pierce |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 5 | 8 | 81 | 0 | 29% | +5.4 |
| Dalton Schultz | 4 | 4 | 63 | 0 | 14% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry To'oTo'o | 1 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Bryant |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 16/25 | 177 | 1 | 0 | 3 | −0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_20_HOU_KC
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -9.5, won by 9 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 37 — under by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 10 |
| 2.5 |
| 0 |
| −0.7 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| +6.2 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 4 | 6 | 52 | 0 | 21% | +3.0 |
| John Metchie | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 7% | +3.1 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 11% | +0.4 |
| Irv Smith | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Dameon Pierce | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.8 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Jared Wayne | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −1.5 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Will Anderson | 4 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danielle Hunter | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Stingley | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamari Lassiter | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Neville Hewitt | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Murray | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tim Settle | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 1 | +4.4 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Xavier Worthy | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Matt Araiza | 1 | -18 | -18.0 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 8 | 117 | 1 | 33% | +10.2 |
| Xavier Worthy | 5 | 6 | 45 | 0 | 25% | +0.9 |
| Noah Gray | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 13% | −1.1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| Samaje Perine | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.7 |
| Marquise Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −1.3 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Reid | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bryan Cook | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drue Tranquill | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bolton | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Karlaftis | 4 | 1 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chamarri Conner | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaden Hicks | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent McDuffie | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Nazeeh Johnson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leo Chenal | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
