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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:37 AM ET · 16 to play
2024 Divisional Round · Sat, Jan 18, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Final
TexansHouston14
BY 9final margin
ChiefsKansas City23
Houston Texans 14 at Kansas City Chiefs 23. Final.
Chiefs -9.5 no coverU 41.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Divisional Round
Kansas City Chiefs 23, Texans 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 4:42, 1st and 10, on Joe Mixon — 11.7 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 4:42 · 1st and 10
Joe Mixon
Texans
(4:42) 75-A.Deculus reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon right tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
21°F
Chiefs closed -9.5, won by 9 — but didn't cover.
Kansas City Chiefs 23–14. Biggest swing: Q3 4:42, Texans +11.7% win probability on one snap.
11.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ka'imi FairbairnChiefsQ2 7:06(7:06) 15-K.Fairbairn 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
8.8pts
Travis KelceChiefsQ4 11:57(11:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-M.Edwards].
11.2pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Texans owned this one and still lost it — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chiefs at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Texans owned this one and still lost it — 10 of 17 on third down, against Chiefs at 4 of 10 on third down.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Chiefs won this one — 2 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Texans at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Texans at 6 chunk plays.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Texans150 of 159 plays carry both curves
(4:42) 75-A.Deculus reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon right tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −11.7 for ChiefsExpected points −2.02 for ChiefsThe model had Texans 14 points higher than the market did.play 95
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 4:42KC +12% win prob(4:42) 75-A.Deculus reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon right tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 11:57KC +11% win prob(11:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-M.Edwards].
2nd · 7:06HOU +9% win prob(7:06) 15-K.Fairbairn 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
1st · 15:00KC +8% win prob15-K.Fairbairn kicks 60 yards from HOU 35 to KC 5. 81-N.Remigio to HOU 32 for 63 yards (17-K.Boyd). FUMBLES (17-K.Boyd), recovered by KC-34-S.Perine at HOU 26. PENALTY on HOU-17-K.Boyd, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 13 yards, enforced at HOU 26.
3rd · 4:36HOU +7% win prob15-K.Fairbairn extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
2nd · 9:56KC +6% win prob(9:56) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud scrambles right guard to KC 39 for 28 yards (21-J.Hicks).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Harrison Butker's 36-yard field goal with 4:03 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st14:01Harrison Butker·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+30–3
1st8:44Ka'imi Fairbairn·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Weeks+33–3
1st4:03Harrison Butker·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.WinchesterLead never changed again+33–6
2nd0:20Ka'imi Fairbairn·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Weeks+36–13
3rd4:42Joe Mixon·13-yd TD run13-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide right+612–13
4th11:57Travis Kelce·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+712–20
4th4:41Harrison Butker·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+312–23
4th0:15Del'Shawn Phillips·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+214–23
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryChiefs
Texans5–3Chiefs
337Total yards222
5.3Yards per play4.7
50%Success rate38%
59%Third-down rate40%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays7
18First downs12
8Sacks taken3
0Turnovers0
The read
Texans ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chiefs, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Texans: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.04Chiefs: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.11Texans: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.02Chiefs: +0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.10Texans: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.08Chiefs: +0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 64 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 47 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Texans 5, Chiefs 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2024 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 22 pts
leaned — got home · +9.9 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.53× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Chiefs34.1%
leaned — got home · +16.4 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+1.67× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteKC's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 51.2%, 15.4 points above their season mean of 35.8% and 1.7 times their own 9.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Stroud scrambles+12% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(9:56) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud scrambles right guard to KC 39 for 28 yards (21-J.Hicks).
Q2 9:56 · Texans · 3rd & 9 at HOU 33 · gained 28 · +3.04 EP · +12.3% win probability
148 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 159 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 148 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 154. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 90 yards from the KC 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
159 of 159 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
159
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
42%
Yards
548
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.0473%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24-0.2071%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.5753%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13-0.0838%
Texans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.2920%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.2760%
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR3——
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Texans1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Texans0Chiefs3
Field goal5 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Texans3Chiefs3
Field goal11 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Chiefs 12
Texans3Chiefs6
Field goal12 plays, from the Chiefs 31 to the Texans 8
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Chiefs 46
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter36 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 24 to the Texans 43
How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
No good8 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Chiefs 34
Texans3Chiefs12
Texans3Chiefs13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chiefs 45 to the Texans 1
Texans6Chiefs13
Field goal13 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Chiefs 20
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter30 plays
Texans12Chiefs13
Touchdown20 plays, from the Texans 18 to the Chiefs 13
The period ended10 plays, from the Chiefs 19 to the Texans 40
4th quarter53 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
Texans12Chiefs19
Texans12Chiefs20
Touchdown7 plays, from the Texans 37 to the Texans 8
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Texans 34 to the Chiefs 40
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 44 to the Texans 43
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 7 to the Texans 11
Texans12Chiefs23
Field goal8 plays, from the Texans 45 to the Texans 9
The period ended14 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Chiefs 5
Texans14Chiefs23
The period ended6 plays, from the Chiefs 23 to the Chiefs 27
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
