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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
2024 Divisional Round · Sun, Jan 19, 2025 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
RamsLos Angeles22
BY 6final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia28
Los Angeles Rams 22 at Philadelphia Eagles 28. Final.
Eagles -7 no coverO 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Divisional Round
Philadelphia Eagles 28, Rams 22 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 15:00, 2nd and 2, on Kyren Williams — 19.6 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 15:00 · 2nd and 2
Kyren Williams
Eagles
(15:00) 23-K.Williams left guard to LA 43 for no gain (98-J.Carter). FUMBLES (98-J.Carter), touched at LA 46, RECOVERED by PHI-34-I.Rodgers at 50. 34-I.Rodgers pushed ob at LA 10 for 40 yards (69-K.Dotson).
Eagles closed -7, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Philadelphia Eagles 28–22. Biggest swing: Q4 15:00, Eagles +19.6% win probability on one snap.
19.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Saquon BarkleyEaglesQ1 1:17(1:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.0pts
Matthew StaffordEaglesQ4 0:31(:31) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 17-P.Nacua [98-J.Carter].
12.6pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.30 expected points per carry, against Rams at -0.42 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Eagles won this one — no giveaways, against Rams at 2 giveaways.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Rams owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Eagles at 0 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.08 expected points per snap, against Rams at -0.07 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Rams171 of 181 plays carry both curves
(15:00) 23-K.Williams left guard to LA 43 for no gain (98-J.Carter). FUMBLES (98-J.Carter), touched at LA 46, RECOVERED by PHI-34-I.Rodgers at 50. 34-I.Rodgers pushed ob at LA 10 for 40 yards (69-K.Dotson).
Swing +19.6 for EaglesExpected points +7.29 for EaglesThe model had Rams 12 points higher than the market did.play 121
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 15:00LA +20% win prob(15:00) 23-K.Williams left guard to LA 43 for no gain (98-J.Carter). FUMBLES (98-J.Carter), touched at LA 46, RECOVERED by PHI-34-I.Rodgers at 50. 34-I.Rodgers pushed ob at LA 10 for 40 yards (69-K.Dotson).
1st · 1:17PHI +13% win prob(1:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:31LA +13% win prob(:31) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 17-P.Nacua [98-J.Carter].
4th · 1:33PHI +12% win prob(1:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 17-P.Nacua ran ob at PHI 21 for 37 yards.
1st · 12:04PHI +11% win prob(12:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts right end for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 0:32LA +11% win prob(:32) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked in End Zone for -8 yards, SAFETY (92-N.Gallimore).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jake Elliott's 44-yard field goal with 2:24 left in the 3rd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:04Jalen Hurts·44-yd TD run44-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+60–6
1st6:36Tyler Higbee·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+77–6
2nd12:51Joshua Karty·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+310–13
3rd7:41Joshua Karty·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+313–13
3rd2:24Jake Elliott·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap R.LovatoLead never changed again+313–16
3rd0:32Neville Gallimore·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+215–16
4th13:26Jake Elliott·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap R.Lovato+315–19
4th6:22Jake Elliott·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap R.Lovato+315–22
4th4:47Saquon Barkley·78-yd TD run78-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+615–28
4th2:51Colby Parkinson·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+722–28
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categoryEagles
Rams6–3Eagles
402Total yards351
5.7Yards per play5.8
43%Success rate42%
38%Third-down rate40%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
7Explosive plays6
18First downs15
5Sacks taken7
2Turnovers0
The read
Rams ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.07Rams: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.08Eagles: +0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.07Rams: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.13Eagles: −0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.42Rams: −0.42 expected points added per play
+0.30Eagles: +0.30 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 70 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Eagles’s 60 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Rams 6, Eagles 5.
NoteRams outgained Eagles 402-351 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2024 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 14 pts
leaned — got home · +11.7 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.91× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Eagles14.0%
right on their number · +0.6 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
NoteLA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.3%, 11.7 points above their season mean of 11.6% and 1.9 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Williams left−27% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(15:00) 23-K.Williams left guard to LA 43 for no gain (98-J.Carter). FUMBLES (98-J.Carter), touched at LA 46, RECOVERED by PHI-34-I.Rodgers at 50. 34-I.Rodgers pushed ob at LA 10 for 40 yards (69-K.Dotson).
Q4 15:00 · Rams · 2nd & 2 at LA 43 · gained nothing · -7.29 EP · −26.9% win probability
169 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 176. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 78 yards from the PHI 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
46%
Yards
752
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR67-0.0372%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.1355%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.0423%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Rams1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Rams0Eagles6
Touchdown8 plays, from the Eagles 26 to the Rams 44
Rams6Eagles6
Rams7Eagles6
Touchdown15 plays, from the Rams 33 to the Eagles 4
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 32 to the Eagles 36
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 34 to the Rams 42
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
Rams7Eagles12
Rams7Eagles13
Touchdown5 plays, from the Eagles 17 to the Eagles 38
The period ended4 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 33
2nd quarter40 plays
Rams10Eagles13
Field goal5 plays, from the Eagles 19 to the Eagles 11
Punt10 plays, from the Eagles 43 to the Rams 30
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 7 to the Rams 44
The period ended19 plays, from the Eagles 9 to the Rams 32
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 37
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 15 to the Eagles 22
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Rams13Eagles13
Field goal8 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Eagles 8
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Rams13Eagles16
Field goal11 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Rams 22
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 38
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Rams15Eagles16
Drive ended2 plays, from the Eagles 4 to the Eagles 8
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter61 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost1 play
Rams15Eagles19
Field goal5 plays, from the Rams 10 to the Rams 1
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Rams 29 to the Rams 45
Rams15Eagles22
Field goal8 plays, from the Rams 38 to the Rams 17
Punt5 plays
Rams15Eagles28
Touchdown2 plays
Rams21Eagles28
Rams22Eagles28
Touchdown12 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Eagles 2
The period ended8 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Eagles 33
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Rams 18 to the Eagles 13
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Ramscategory by categoryEagles
Rams0
Eagles6
