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2024 Divisional Round · Sat, Jan 18, 2025 · Ford Field

Washington CommandersWinner

45

Detroit Lions

31

DET -8.5 upsetO 55.5 ✓Dome

Washington Commanders 45–31. Biggest swing: Q4 12:13, WAS +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DET ↑WAS ↓
Q4 · 12:13WAS 38 — DET 28DET ball · 1st & 10WAS 70%

(12:13) 9-Ja.Williams pass deep right intended for 26-J.Gibbs INTERCEPTED by 0-M.Sainristil at WAS 34. 0-M.Sainristil to WAS 34 for no gain (26-J.Gibbs). Penalty on DET-60-G.Glasgow, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 12:13WAS +16% win prob(12:13) 9-Ja.Williams pass deep right intended for 26-J.Gibbs INTERCEPTED by 0-M.Sainristil at WAS 34. 0-M.Sainristil to WAS 34 for no gain (26-J.Gibbs). Penalty on DET-60-G.Glasgow, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
  2. Q2 · 6:33DET +15% win prob(6:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q2 · 5:38WAS +14% win prob(5:38) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left intended for 17-T.Patrick INTERCEPTED by 20-Q.Martin at DET 40. 20-Q.Martin for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET-16-J.Goff was injured during the play.
  4. Q2 · 0:35WAS +13% win prob(:35) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle intended for 9-Ja.Williams INTERCEPTED by 0-M.Sainristil at WAS -8. 0-M.Sainristil to WAS 14 for 22 yards (87-S.LaPorta).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:40DET Touchdown

    (7:40) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 26-J.Gibbs left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 0 — DET 7
  2. Q1 · 3:54WAS Field goal

    (3:54) 47-Z.Gonzalez 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: WAS 3 — DET 7
  3. Q2 · 10:58WAS Touchdown

    (10:58) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS-76-S.Cosmi was injured during the play. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 10 — DET 7
  4. Q2 · 7:50DET Touchdown

    (7:50) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-J.Allen]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 10 — DET 14
  5. Q2 · 6:33WAS Touchdown

    (6:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 17 — DET 14
  6. Q2 · 5:38WAS Touchdown

    (5:38) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left intended for 17-T.Patrick INTERCEPTED by 20-Q.Martin at DET 40. 20-Q.Martin for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET-16-J.Goff was injured during the play. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 24 — DET 14
  7. Q2 · 4:16DET Touchdown

    (4:16) 9-Ja.Williams left end for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 24 — DET 21
  8. Q2 · 1:49WAS Touchdown

    (1:49) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 31 — DET 21
  9. Q3 · 7:02DET Touchdown

    (7:02) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 31 — DET 28
  10. Q4 · 13:32WAS Touchdown

    (13:32) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 38 — DET 28
  11. Q4 · 7:38WAS Touchdown

    (7:38) (Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 45 — DET 28
  12. Q4 · 5:04DET Field goal

    (5:04) 39-J.Bates 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: WAS 45 — DET 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCommandersLions
Offensive plays7165
Total yards483521 (edge)
Yards per play6.88.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.29 (edge)0.08
Success rate51%57% (edge)
Dropback rate52%66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.56 (edge)-0.12
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.010.45 (edge)
Third downs4/123/9
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)1112 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps2429 (edge)
Sacks taken0 (edge)2
Turnovers0 (edge)5

Lions outgained Commanders 521–483 but lost the turnover battle 5–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

23/40, 313 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-4.4 expected points added · -5.4% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Jayden DanielsQB

22/31, 299 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

19.2 expected points added · +6.2% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Jahmyr GibbsRB

14 att, 105 yds, 2 TD

5.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Brian RobinsonRB

15 att, 77 yds, 2 TD

6.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

8/10 for 137 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 10.5 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Dyami BrownWR

6/8 for 98 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 2.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DETDET 405-31:15Punt
2WASWAS 208563:07Turnover on downs
3DETDET 297713:02Touchdown +7
4WASWAS 3011413:46Field goal +3
5DETDET 276512:55Fumble
6WASWAS 2212765:00Touchdown +7
7DETDET 309703:11Touchdown +7
8WASWAS 305701:21Touchdown +7
9DETDET 22310:58Defensive touchdown
10DETDET 275781:24Touchdown +7
11WASWAS 309702:15Touchdown +7
12DETDET 308411:24Interception
13WASWAS 14100:22End of half
14WASWAS 306132:07Punt
15DETDET 912765:56Touchdown +7
16WASWAS 3017528:28Touchdown +7
17DETDET 194271:25Interception
18WASWAS 349714:33Touchdown +7
19DETDET 3011602:30Field goal +3
20WASWAS 408342:35Missed field goal
21DETDET 3412492:01Interception
22WASWAS 9100:25End of game

11 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 78 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jayden Daniels22/3129920019.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Brian Robinson15775.126.0
Jayden Daniels16513.20-0.3
Austin Ekeler6477.800.4
Jeremy McNichols482.01-0.4
Marcus Mariota1-1-1.00-4.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Dyami Brown6898028%2.8
Terry McLaurin4687121%7.8
Austin Ekeler4441014%2.0
Zach Ertz5528117%5.3
Jamison Crowder222507%3.5
John Bates122007%1.8
Olamide Zaccheaus02007%-2.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jeremy Chinn750.011
Frankie Luvu540.000
Bobby Wagner260.000
Noah Igbinoghene320.000
Mike Sainristil410.022
Marshon Lattimore310.000
Dorance Armstrong302.000
Nick Bellore120.000
Dante Fowler210.000
Quan Martin210.011

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff23/40313132-4.4
David Montgomery1/1200001.2
Teddy Bridgewater1/13000-0.1
Jameson Williams0/10010-4.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jahmyr Gibbs141057.525.3
Jameson Williams16161.015.2
David Montgomery7284.00-0.6
Jared Goff177.001.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown810137026%10.5
Jahmyr Gibbs61170028%-1.9
Sam LaPorta6751118%1.6
Kalif Raymond333708%3.2
Tim Patrick1422010%-9.3
Jameson Williams1419010%-3.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jack Campbell860.000
Alex Anzalone1110.000
Brian Branch830.000
Kerby Joseph600.000
Terrion Arnold510.000
Josh Paschal300.000
Morice Norris210.000
Jahmyr Gibbs110.000
Levi Onwuzurike200.000
Sam LaPorta100.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DET -8.5
Closing total
55.5
WAS moneyline
+390
DET moneyline
-520

Lions closed -8.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 55.5; the game landed 76 — over by 20.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
WAS 6 days · DET 13 days
Coaches
Dan Quinn vs Dan Campbell