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2024 Divisional Round · Sat, Jan 18, 2025 · Ford Field
Final
CommandersWashington45
BY 14final margin
LionsDetroit31
Washington Commanders 45 at Detroit Lions 31. Final.
Lions -8.5 upset
The verdict · 2024 Divisional Round
Washington Commanders 45, Lions 31 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 12:13, 1st and 10, on Mike Sainristil — 15.9 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 12:13 · 1st and 10
Mike Sainristil
Commanders
(12:13) 9-Ja.Williams pass deep right intended for 26-J.Gibbs INTERCEPTED by 0-M.Sainristil at WAS 34. 0-M.Sainristil to WAS 34 for no gain (26-J.Gibbs). Penalty on DET-60-G.Glasgow, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
O 55.5 ✓
Dome
Lions closed -8.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Washington Commanders 45–31. Biggest swing: Q4 12:13, Commanders +15.9% win probability on one snap.
15.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Terry McLaurinCommandersQ2 6:33(6:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.7pts
Quan MartinCommandersQ2 5:38(5:38) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left intended for 17-T.Patrick INTERCEPTED by 20-Q.Martin at DET 40. 20-Q.Martin for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET-16-J.Goff was injured during the play.
14.5pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Commanders won this one — no giveaways, against Lions at 5 giveaways.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Commanders won this one — +0.56 expected points per dropback, against Lions at -0.12 expected points per dropback.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Lions owned this one and still lost it — +0.45 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.01 expected points per carry.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Commanders won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Lions at 3 touchdowns on 7 trips.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Commanders179 of 190 plays carry both curves
(12:13) 9-Ja.Williams pass deep right intended for 26-J.Gibbs INTERCEPTED by 0-M.Sainristil at WAS 34. 0-M.Sainristil to WAS 34 for no gain (26-J.Gibbs). Penalty on DET-60-G.Glasgow, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
Swing −15.9 for LionsExpected points −4.44 for LionsThe model had Commanders 12 points higher than the market did.play 142
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 12:13WAS +16% win prob(12:13) 9-Ja.Williams pass deep right intended for 26-J.Gibbs INTERCEPTED by 0-M.Sainristil at WAS 34. 0-M.Sainristil to WAS 34 for no gain (26-J.Gibbs). Penalty on DET-60-G.Glasgow, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
2nd · 6:33DET +15% win prob(6:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:38WAS +14% win prob(5:38) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left intended for 17-T.Patrick INTERCEPTED by 20-Q.Martin at DET 40. 20-Q.Martin for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET-16-J.Goff was injured during the play.
2nd · 0:35WAS +13% win prob(:35) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle intended for 9-Ja.Williams INTERCEPTED by 0-M.Sainristil at WAS -8. 0-M.Sainristil to WAS 14 for 22 yards (87-S.LaPorta).
4th · 14:15DET +12% win prob(14:15) (Shotgun) PENALTY on DET, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, 3 yards, enforced at DET 5 - No Play.
2nd · 2:23DET +10% win prob(2:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep right to 2-D.Brown to DET 7 for 38 yards (31-K.Joseph).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Terry McLaurin's 58-yard touchdown catch with 6:33 left in the 2nd put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
4th5:04Jake Bates·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.Hatten+345–31
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categoryLions
Commanders3–5Lions
483Total yards521
6.8Yards per play8.0
51%Success rate57%
33%Third-down rate33%
4Red-zone touchdowns3
11Explosive plays12
24First downs29
0Sacks taken2
0Turnovers5
The read
Lions ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Commanders, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.29Commanders: +0.29 expected points added per play
+0.08Lions: +0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.56Commanders: +0.56 expected points added per play
−0.12Lions: −0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Commanders: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.45Lions: +0.45 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 71 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Lions’s 65 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 5, Lions 7.
NoteLions outgained Commanders 521-483 but lost the turnover battle 5-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's play-action rate, 48.6%, sat 22.6 points above their season number of 26.1% — they faked the run by 2.5 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2024 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · +1.8 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Lions5.4%
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.1 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.55× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteWAS's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 48.6%, 22.6 points above their season mean of 26.1% and 2.5 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 7 inactive
67Nick AllegrettiG · Every snap100%75 snaps
71Andrew WylieT · Every snap100%75 snaps
74Brandon ColemanT · Every snap100%75 snaps
63Tyler BiadaszC · Every snap100%75 snaps
5Jayden DanielsQB · Every snap100%75 snaps
17Terry McLaurinWR · Full-time93%70 snaps
2Dyami BrownWR · Full-time83%62 snaps
86Zach ErtzTE · Heavy rotation68%51 snaps
73Trent ScottT · Heavy rotation61%46 snaps
8Brian RobinsonRB · Heavy rotation53%40 snaps
87John BatesTE · Rotational47%35 snaps
14Olamide ZaccheausWR · Rotational44%33 snaps
80Jamison CrowderWR · Rotational40%30 snaps
76Sam CosmiG · Rotational39%29 snaps
30Austin EkelerRB · Rotational37%28 snaps
26Jeremy McNicholsRB · Situational17%13 snaps
12Luke McCaffreyWR · Situational11%8 snaps
82Ben SinnottTE · Situational4%3 snaps
60Michael DeiterC · Situational1%1 snap
18Marcus MariotaQB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Michael DavisCBAndre Jones Jr.DEChris PaulGJeff DriskelQBChris Rodriguez Jr.RBDominique HamptonSSK.J. OsbornWR
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
73Christian MahoganyG · Every snap100%69 snaps
60Graham GlasgowG · Every snap100%69 snaps
58Penei SewellT · Every snap100%69 snaps
68Taylor DeckerT · Every snap100%69 snaps
77Frank RagnowC · Every snap100%69 snaps
87Sam LaPortaTE · Full-time97%67 snaps
14Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Full-time96%66 snaps
16Jared GoffQB · Full-time96%66 snaps
9Jameson WilliamsWR · Full-time88%61 snaps
26Jahmyr GibbsRB · Heavy rotation75%52 snaps
17Tim PatrickWR · Rotational43%30 snaps
11Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational42%29 snaps
89Brock WrightTE · Rotational25%17 snaps
5David MontgomeryRB · Rotational25%17 snaps
84Shane ZylstraTE · Situational4%3 snaps
12Teddy BridgewaterQB · Situational4%3 snaps
70Dan SkipperT · Situational3%2 snaps
13Craig ReynoldsRB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Pat O'ConnorDEBrodric MartinDTKevin ZeitlerGMitchell AgudeOLBHendon HookerQBGiovanni ManuTColby SorsdalT
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff pass−17% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(5:38) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left intended for 17-T.Patrick INTERCEPTED by 20-Q.Martin at DET 40. 20-Q.Martin for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET-16-J.Goff was injured during the play.
Q2 5:38 · Lions · 2nd & 14 at DET 18 · gained nothing · -6.65 EP · −16.9% win probability
177 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 190 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 185. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 91 yards from the DET 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
190 of 190 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
190
EPA per play
+0.15
Success rate
54%
Yards
1002
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.1376%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.2746%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.3347%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.8217%
Commanders1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR7+0.2314%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.6160%
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Commanders2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Commanders0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Commanders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
190 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
190 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 40 to the Lions 42
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a quarterback sneak, no huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldTwo quarterbacks, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Lions 28
Commanders0Lions6
Commanders0Lions7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 29 to the Commanders 1
Commanders3Lions7
Field goal11 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Lions 29
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Lions 27 to the Commanders 17
The period ended3 plays, from the Commanders 22 to the Commanders 37
2nd quarter58 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Commanders9Lions7
Commanders10Lions7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Commanders 42 to the Lions 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Commanders10Lions13
Commanders10Lions14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Commanders 2
How the play was built
A screen, a run-pass option, play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.3 seconds
Commanders16Lions14
Commanders17Lions14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Commanders 42
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Commanders23Lions14
Touchdown4 plays
Commanders24Lions14
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Commanders24Lions20
Commanders24Lions21
Touchdown6 plays, from the Lions 27 to the Lions 39
Commanders30Lions21
Commanders31Lions21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Lions 5
The period ended10 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Commanders 29
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Commanders 44
Commanders31Lions27
Commanders31Lions28
Touchdown13 plays, from the Lions 9 to the Commanders 7
The period ended14 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Lions 6
4th quarter57 plays
Commanders37Lions28
Commanders38Lions28
Touchdown5 plays, from the Lions 5 to the Lions 1
Intercepted4 plays, from the Lions 19 to the Lions 46
Commanders44Lions28
Commanders45Lions28
Touchdown10 plays, from the Commanders 34 to the Lions 1
Commanders45Lions31
Field goal11 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Commanders 10
The period ended13 plays, from the Commanders 40 to the Lions 26
Intercepted12 plays, from the Lions 34 to the Commanders 17
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Commanderscategory by categoryLions
Commanders0
Lions6
