2024 Conference Championship · Sun, Jan 26, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Buffalo Bills

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -1.5 ✓O 49.5 ✓31°FChiefs closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Kansas City Chiefs 32–29 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 0:29, KC +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:29BUF 16 — KC 21BUF ball · 2nd & 10KC 82%

(:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-M.Hollins for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones]. Penalty on KC-22-T.McDuffie, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:29KC +16% win prob(:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-M.Hollins for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones]. Penalty on KC-22-T.McDuffie, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q4 · 6:20KC +16% win prob(6:20) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 1-C.Samuel for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 7:38KC +15% win prob(7:38) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-M.Hollins to KC 4 for 32 yards (6-B.Cook).
Q4 · 13:01BUF +15% win prob(13:01) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left guard to KC 41 for no gain (32-N.Bolton). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:02KC Touchdown
(9:02) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 0 — KC 7
Q1 · 3:49BUF Field goal
(3:49) 2-T.Bass 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: BUF 3 — KC 7
Q2 · 10:30BUF Touchdown
(10:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-J.Cook left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC-32-N.Bolton was injured during the play. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 10 — KC 7
Q2 · 4:18KC Touchdown
(4:18) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-X.Worthy for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 10 — KC 14
Q2 · 2:00KC Touchdown
(2:00) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BUF-97-J.Phillips, Unnecessary Roughness, 8 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 10 — KC 21
Q2 · 0:29BUF Touchdown
(:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-M.Hollins for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones]. Penalty on KC-22-T.McDuffie, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Score after this play: BUF 16 — KC 21
Q3 · 3:01BUF Touchdown
(3:01) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: BUF 22 — KC 21
Q4 · 10:20KC Touchdown
(10:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: BUF 22 — KC 29
Q4 · 6:20BUF Touchdown
(6:20) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 1-C.Samuel for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 29 — KC 29
Q4 · 3:37KC Field goal
(3:37) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Score after this play: BUF 29 — KC 32

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Chiefs
Offensive plays	70	61
Total yards	374 (edge)	373
Yards per play	5.3	6.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.16	0.27 (edge)
Success rate	44%	54% (edge)
Dropback rate	54%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.22	0.66 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.08 (edge)	-0.26
Third downs	5/14	5/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	21	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs 0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

18/26, 245 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

17.2 expected points added · +5.2% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

22/34, 237 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.3 expected points added · +5.2% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

13 att, 85 yds, 2 TD

7.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Kareem HuntRB

17 att, 64 yds, 1 TD

-2.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Xavier WorthyWR

6/7 for 85 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 9.8 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Mack HollinsWR

3/4 for 73 yds, 1 TD

13% of team targets · 7.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 30	5	4	0:59	Punt
2	KC	KC 10	10	90	5:05	Touchdown +7
3	BUF	BUF 30	11	44	5:11	Field goal +3
4	KC	KC 32	7	35	2:48	Fumble
5	BUF	BUF 28	11	67	5:32	Touchdown +7
6	KC	KC 30	13	59	6:12	Touchdown +7
7	BUF	BUF 30	5	0	0:34	Punt
8	KC	BUF 34	7	34	1:44	Touchdown +7
9	BUF	BUF 27	9	68	1:32	Touchdown +6
10	KC	KC 22	2	0	0:23	End of half
11	KC	KC 25	10	29	4:59	Punt
12	BUF	BUF 20	13	80	7:05	Touchdown +6
13	KC	KC 30	5	0	1:00	Punt
14	BUF	BUF 30	9	24	4:01	Turnover on downs
15	KC	KC 41	6	61	2:41	Touchdown +8
16	BUF	BUF 30	11	70	3:59	Touchdown +7
17	KC	KC 32	9	36	2:42	Field goal +3
18	BUF	BUF 30	7	17	1:39	Turnover on downs
19	KC	BUF 47	7	29	1:54	End of game

10 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 90 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	22/34	237	2	0	2	7.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Cook	13	85	6.5	2	7.9
Josh Allen	11	39	3.5	0	-1.7
Ty Johnson	6	19	3.2	0	-0.7
Ray Davis	2	4	2.0	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mack Hollins	3	4	73	1	13%	7.9
James Cook	3	3	49	0	10%	3.1
Khalil Shakir	6	7	46	0	23%	2.6
Amari Cooper	4	4	33	0	13%	2.2
Dalton Kincaid	2	4	13	0	13%	-3.1
Keon Coleman	1	4	12	0	13%	-3.8
Dawson Knox	1	1	7	0	3%	0.7
Curtis Samuel	1	3	4	1	10%	3.0
Ty Johnson	1	1	0	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Cole Bishop	9	1	0.0	0
Matt Milano	8	1	1.0	0
Rasul Douglas	6	1	0.0	0
Terrel Bernard	2	4	0.0	0
Damar Hamlin	1	2	0.0	0
Gregory Rousseau	1	2	0.0	0
Christian Benford	2	1	0.0	1
Kaiir Elam	2	1	0.0	0
Taron Johnson	2	1	0.0	0
Dorian Williams	2	0	0.0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	18/26	245	1	0	2	17.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kareem Hunt	17	64	3.8	1	-2.8
Patrick Mahomes	11	43	3.9	2	-1.1
Xavier Worthy	2	16	8.0	0	1.1
Isiah Pacheco	5	12	2.4	0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Xavier Worthy	6	7	85	1	28%	9.8
JuJu Smith-Schuster	2	3	60	0	12%	3.4
Marquise Brown	3	5	35	0	20%	2.0
Travis Kelce	2	4	19	0	16%	0.1
Samaje Perine	1	1	17	0	4%	2.3
Isiah Pacheco	2	2	12	0	8%	0.6
DeAndre Hopkins	1	2	11	0	8%	0.3
Kareem Hunt	1	1	6	0	4%	1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Chamarri Conner	5	4	0.0	0
Drue Tranquill	3	6	0.0	0
Nick Bolton	4	2	0.0	1
Justin Reid	4	1	0.0	0
Michael Danna	2	2	1.0	0
Trent McDuffie	3	1	0.0	0
George Karlaftis	2	2	0.0	0
Jaden Hicks	3	1	0.0	0
Mike Pennel	3	1	0.0	0
Bryan Cook	3	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -1.5
Closing total: 49.5
BUF moneyline: -102
KC moneyline: -118

Chiefs closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 61 — over by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 31°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: BUF 7 days · KC 8 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Andy Reid