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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:23 AM ET · 16 to play
2024 Conference Championship · Sun, Jan 26, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Final
BillsBuffalo29
BY 3final margin
ChiefsKansas City32
Buffalo Bills 29 at Kansas City Chiefs 32. Final.
Chiefs -1.5 ✓O 49.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Conference Championship
Kansas City Chiefs 32, Bills 29 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q2 0:29, 2nd and 10, on Mack Hollins — 16.1 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:29 · 2nd and 10
Mack Hollins
Bills
(:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-M.Hollins for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones]. Penalty on KC-22-T.McDuffie, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
31°F
Chiefs closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Kansas City Chiefs 32–29 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 0:29, Bills +16.1% win probability on one snap.
16.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Mack HollinsBillsQ4 7:38(7:38) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-M.Hollins to KC 4 for 32 yards (6-B.Cook).
15.1pts
Curtis SamuelBillsQ4 6:20(6:20) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 1-C.Samuel for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.9pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bills owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Chiefs at 2 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Bills owned this one and still lost it — +0.08 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at -0.26 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.66 expected points per dropback, against Bills at +0.22 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 5 of 9 on third down, against Bills at 5 of 14 on third down.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chiefs.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Bills166 of 177 plays carry both curves
(:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-M.Hollins for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones]. Penalty on KC-22-T.McDuffie, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Swing −16.1 for ChiefsExpected points −5.29 for ChiefsModel and market agree here.play 86
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:29KC +16% win prob(:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-M.Hollins for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones]. Penalty on KC-22-T.McDuffie, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
4th · 6:20KC +16% win prob(6:20) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 1-C.Samuel for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 7:38KC +15% win prob(7:38) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-M.Hollins to KC 4 for 32 yards (6-B.Cook).
4th · 13:01BUF +15% win prob(13:01) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left guard to KC 41 for no gain (32-N.Bolton). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
1st · 1:03BUF +14% win prob(1:03) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes to BUF 28 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by BUF-91-E.Oliver at BUF 28.
4th · 2:00BUF +13% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 86-D.Kincaid [56-G.Karlaftis].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Harrison Butker's 35-yard field goal with 3:37 left in the 4th put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th3:37Harrison Butker·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.WinchesterLead never changed again+329–32
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryChiefs
Bills2–6Chiefs
374Total yards373
5.3Yards per play6.1
44%Success rate54%
36%Third-down rate56%
3Red-zone touchdowns4
7Explosive plays9
21First downs25
2Sacks taken2
0Turnovers2
The read
Chiefs ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bills, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.66 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.16Bills: +0.16 expected points added per play
+0.27Chiefs: +0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.22Bills: +0.22 expected points added per play
+0.66Chiefs: +0.66 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.08Bills: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.26Chiefs: −0.26 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 70 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 61 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Bills 4, Chiefs 6.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs 0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's play-action rate, 40.0%, sat 18.7 points above their season number of 21.3% — they faked the run by 3.4 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2024 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 23 pts
leaned — got home · +5.1 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (+1.24× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Chiefs21.1%
right on their number · +3.3 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteKC's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 40.0%, 18.7 points above their season mean of 21.3% and 3.4 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
79Spencer BrownT · Every snap100%73 snaps
64O'Cyrus TorrenceG · Every snap100%73 snaps
76David EdwardsG · Every snap100%73 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Every snap100%73 snaps
66Connor McGovernC · Every snap100%73 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Every snap100%73 snaps
10Khalil ShakirWR · Heavy rotation78%57 snaps
13Mack HollinsWR · Heavy rotation67%49 snaps
88Dawson KnoxTE · Heavy rotation60%44 snaps
0Keon ColemanWR · Heavy rotation53%39 snaps
4James CookRB · Rotational45%33 snaps
86Dalton KincaidTE · Rotational45%33 snaps
18Amari CooperWR · Rotational44%32 snaps
26Ty JohnsonRB · Rotational41%30 snaps
1Curtis SamuelWR · Situational19%14 snaps
41Reggie GilliamFB · Situational15%11 snaps
70Alec AndersonG · Situational14%10 snaps
22Ray DavisRB · Situational12%9 snaps
85Quintin MorrisTE · Situational5%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Sedrick Van Pran-GrangerCBrandon CodringtonCBQuinton JeffersonDEDeWayne CarterDTMike WhiteQBTaylor RappSSRyan Van DemarkT
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Mitchell TrubiskyQBTylan GrableT
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
74Jawaan TaylorT · Every snap100%66 snaps
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%66 snaps
66Mike CaliendoG · Every snap100%66 snaps
52Creed HumphreyC · Every snap100%66 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%66 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Full-time92%61 snaps
1Xavier WorthyWR · Full-time82%54 snaps
5Marquise BrownWR · Heavy rotation65%43 snaps
9JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Heavy rotation58%38 snaps
29Kareem HuntRB · Heavy rotation58%38 snaps
83Noah GrayTE · Rotational44%29 snaps
10Isiah PachecoRB · Rotational29%19 snaps
8DeAndre HopkinsWR · Situational18%12 snaps
84Justin WatsonWR · Situational17%11 snaps
34Samaje PerineRB · Situational15%10 snaps
42Carson SteeleRB · Situational11%7 snaps
88Peyton HendershotTE · Situational6%4 snaps
81Nikko RemigioWR · Situational5%3 snaps
76Kingsley SuamataiaT · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Keith TaylorCBMalik HerringDEC.J. HansonGJoshua UcheOLBWanya MorrisTEthan DriskellTJustyn RossWR
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen pass+16% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(6:20) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 1-C.Samuel for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 6:20 · Bills · 4th & goal at KC 4 · gained 4 · +4.11 EP · +15.6% win probability
164 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 172. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 90 yards from the KC 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
+0.16
Success rate
50%
Yards
744
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54+0.1254%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.4164%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.0429%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Chiefs0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Bills 34
Bills0Chiefs6
Bills0Chiefs7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 10 to the Bills 12
Bills3Chiefs7
Field goal12 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Chiefs 35
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Chiefs 32 to the Bills 23
The period ended3 plays, from the Bills 28 to the Bills 37
2nd quarter52 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Bills9Chiefs7
Bills10Chiefs7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 40 to the Chiefs 6
Bills10Chiefs13
Bills10Chiefs14
Touchdown15 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Bills 11
Punt5 plays
Bills10Chiefs20
Bills10Chiefs21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bills 34 to the Bills 1
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Bills16Chiefs21
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Chiefs 34
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Bills 36
Bills22Chiefs21
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Chiefs 1
Punt6 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Bills 48
4th quarter51 plays
How the play was built
A quarterback sneak, no huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Bills 48 to the Chiefs 41
Bills22Chiefs27
Bills22Chiefs29
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chiefs 41 to the Bills 10
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Bills28Chiefs29
Bills29Chiefs29
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Chiefs 4
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Bills29Chiefs32
Field goal9 plays, from the Chiefs 32 to the Bills 10
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Bills 47
The period ended12 plays, from the Bills 47 to the Bills 18
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -1.5
Closing total
49.5
Bills moneyline
-102
Chiefs moneyline
-118
Chiefs closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 61 — over by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Freezing, 31°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the north-west; mainly clear.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Bills 7 days · Chiefs 8 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs Andy Reid
4th · 3:37KC +11% win prob(3:37) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
4th · 12:15KC +11% win prob(12:15) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 9-J.Smith-Schuster pushed ob at BUF 23 for 29 yards (24-C.Bishop) [94-D.Smoot].
