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2024 Conference Championship · Sun, Jan 26, 2025 · Lincoln Financial Field

Washington Commanders

23

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

55

PHI -6 ✓O 46.5 ✓

Philadelphia Eagles 55–23 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 7:15, PHI +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3PHI ↑WAS ↓
Q2 · 7:15WAS 12 — PHI 14WAS ball · 3rd & 3PHI 85%

(7:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 7:15PHI +9% win prob(7:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q2 · 2:14PHI +9% win prob(2:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown pushed ob at WAS 14 for 31 yards (23-M.Lattimore).
  3. Q1 · 11:28PHI +8% win prob(11:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz pushed ob at PHI 36 for 7 yards (53-Z.Baun).
  4. Q1 · 5:54WAS +8% win prob(5:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 2-D.Brown to WAS 45 for 6 yards (53-Z.Baun; 33-C.DeJean). FUMBLES (53-Z.Baun), RECOVERED by PHI-32-R.Blankenship at WAS 48.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:01WAS Field goal

    (8:01) 47-Z.Gonzalez 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: WAS 3 — PHI 0
  2. Q1 · 7:51PHI Touchdown

    (7:51) 26-S.Barkley left end for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 3 — PHI 7
  3. Q1 · 3:47PHI Touchdown

    (3:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 3 — PHI 14
  4. Q2 · 14:46WAS Field goal

    (14:46) 47-Z.Gonzalez 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: WAS 6 — PHI 14
  5. Q2 · 7:15WAS Touchdown

    (7:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: WAS 12 — PHI 14
  6. Q2 · 1:45PHI Touchdown

    (1:45) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS-23-M.Lattimore, Unnecessary Roughness, 1 yard, enforced between downs.

    Score after this play: WAS 12 — PHI 20
  7. Q2 · 0:43PHI Touchdown

    (:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 12 — PHI 27
  8. Q2 · 0:06WAS Field goal

    (:06) 47-Z.Gonzalez 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: WAS 15 — PHI 27
  9. Q3 · 9:04PHI Touchdown

    (9:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts left guard for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 15 — PHI 34
  10. Q3 · 5:07WAS Touchdown

    (5:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels right tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: WAS 23 — PHI 34
  11. Q4 · 12:26PHI Touchdown

    (12:26) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 23 — PHI 41
  12. Q4 · 8:02PHI Touchdown

    (8:02) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 23 — PHI 48
  13. Q4 · 3:07PHI Touchdown

    (3:07) (Shotgun) 28-W.Shipley left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 23 — PHI 55

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCommandersEagles
Offensive plays7965
Total yards352462 (edge)
Yards per play4.57.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.090.40 (edge)
Success rate39%58% (edge)
Dropback rate73%48%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.050.50 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.200.30 (edge)
Third downs7/175/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)68 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps2427 (edge)
Sacks taken32 (edge)
Turnovers40 (edge)

Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.40 expected points added per play vs -0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Jayden DanielsQB

29/48, 255 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

0.0 expected points added · -6.1% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

20/28, 246 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

16.0 expected points added · +15.4% completion over expected

Rushing · PHI

Saquon BarkleyRB

15 att, 118 yds, 3 TD

3.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Jayden DanielsQB

6 att, 48 yds, 1 TD

5.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Zach ErtzTE

11/16 for 104 yds, 0 TD

34% of team targets · 10.6 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

A.J. BrownWR

6/8 for 96 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 12.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1WASWAS 3019547:03Field goal +3
2PHIPHI 403600:18Touchdown +7
3WASWAS 275181:54Fumble
4PHIWAS 487482:02Touchdown +7
5WASWAS 2711454:01Field goal +3
6PHIPHI 2913405:53Missed field goal
7WASWAS 446561:44Touchdown +6
8PHIPHI 2814615:21Touchdown +6
9WAS—100:08Fumble
10PHIWAS 248240:57Touchdown +7
11WASWAS 306410:37Field goal +3
12PHI—100:02End of half
13PHIPHI 31502:21Punt
14WASWAS 264-31:52Punt
15PHIPHI 425581:49Touchdown +7
16WASWAS 3010723:57Touchdown +8
17PHIPHI 319293:27Punt
18WASWAS 205301:12Fumble
19PHIPHI 496512:58Touchdown +7
20WASWAS 30912:05Turnover on downs
21PHIWAS 315142:21Touchdown +7
22WASWAS 3511313:07Interception
23PHIPHI 205771:48Touchdown +7
24WASWAS 30571:49Turnover on downs
25PHIWAS 37201:14End of game

13 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 77 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jayden Daniels29/482551130.0
Tress Way1/1230004.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jayden Daniels6488.015.6
Brian Robinson11363.30-0.9
Austin Ekeler8151.90-5.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Zach Ertz1116104034%10.6
Terry McLaurin3751115%1.0
Dyami Brown3542011%-2.9
Olamide Zaccheaus4526011%2.8
Ben Sinnott112302%4.0
Austin Ekeler5717015%-10.4
John Bates221104%-0.1
Jamison Crowder13406%-1.9
Luke McCaffrey01002%-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jeremy Chinn630.000
Bobby Wagner540.000
Quan Martin320.000
Mike Sainristil320.002
Carl Davis230.000
Jonathan Allen320.000
Frankie Luvu221.000
Noah Igbinoghene210.000
Marshon Lattimore300.002
Jalyn Holmes200.000

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jalen Hurts20/2824610216.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Saquon Barkley151187.933.9
Will Shipley47719.315.9
Jalen Hurts10161.63-0.0
Dallas Goedert2136.501.0
Kenneth Gainwell382.70-0.9
Kenny Pickett2-3-1.50-2.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
A.J. Brown6896133%12.1
Dallas Goedert7885033%5.6
DeVonta Smith4445017%4.1
Kenneth Gainwell221608%0.7
Saquon Barkley12408%0.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Zack Baun840.000
Oren Burks541.000
Reed Blankenship610.000
Cooper DeJean420.002
Jalyx Hunt410.000
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson320.000
Nolan Smith221.000
Quinyon Mitchell220.012
Moro Ojomo120.000
Darius Slay300.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
PHI -6
Closing total
46.5
WAS moneyline
+205
PHI moneyline
-250

Eagles closed -6 and covered, winning by 32.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 78 — over by 31.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
40°F, wind 11 mph
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
WAS 8 days · PHI 7 days
Coaches
Dan Quinn vs Nick Sirianni

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.