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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:23 AM ET · 16 to play
2024 Conference Championship · Sun, Jan 26, 2025 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
CommandersWashington23
BY 32final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia55
Washington Commanders 23 at Philadelphia Eagles 55. Final.
Eagles -6 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Conference Championship
Philadelphia Eagles 55, Commanders 23 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 7:15, 3rd and 3, on Terry McLaurin — 9.2 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 7:15 · 3rd and 3
Terry McLaurin
Commanders
(7:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 46.5 ✓
Eagles closed -6 and covered, winning by 32.
Philadelphia Eagles 55–23 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 7:15, Commanders +9.2% win probability on one snap.
9.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Zach ErtzCommandersQ1 11:28(11:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz pushed ob at PHI 36 for 7 yards (53-Z.Baun).
8.0pts
A.J. BrownEaglesQ2 2:14(2:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown pushed ob at WAS 14 for 31 yards (23-M.Lattimore).
8.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Eagles won this one — no giveaways, against Commanders at 4 giveaways.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Eagles won this one — 58% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.40 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.09 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.30 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.20 expected points per carry.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Commanders188 of 199 plays carry both curves
(7:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −9.2 for EaglesExpected points −4.13 for EaglesThe model had Commanders 8 points higher than the market did.play 67
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 7:15PHI +9% win prob(7:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:14PHI +9% win prob(2:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown pushed ob at WAS 14 for 31 yards (23-M.Lattimore).
1st · 11:28PHI +8% win prob(11:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz pushed ob at PHI 36 for 7 yards (53-Z.Baun).
1st · 5:54WAS +8% win prob(5:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 2-D.Brown to WAS 45 for 6 yards (53-Z.Baun; 33-C.DeJean). FUMBLES (53-Z.Baun), RECOVERED by PHI-32-R.Blankenship at WAS 48.
1st · 7:51PHI +8% win prob(7:51) 26-S.Barkley left end for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 9:50PHI +6% win prob(9:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles up the middle to PHI 23 for 5 yards (33-C.DeJean).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Saquon Barkley's 60-yard rushing touchdown with 7:51 left in the 1st put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 11 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:01Zane Gonzalez·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap T.Ott+33–0
1st7:51Saquon Barkley·60-yd TD run60-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+73–7
Eagles ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Commanders: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.40Eagles: +0.40 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.05Commanders: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.50Eagles: +0.50 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.20Commanders: −0.20 expected points added per play
+0.30Eagles: +0.30 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 79 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Eagles’s 65 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 3, Eagles 8.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.40 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2024 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 15 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Eagles6.9%
inside their normal wobble · −6.5 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 58 dropbacks
NoteWAS's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 54.8%, 18.0 points above their season mean of 36.9% and 1.7 times their own 10.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 7 inactive
67Nick AllegrettiG · Every snap100%79 snaps
71Andrew WylieT · Every snap100%79 snaps
74Brandon ColemanT · Every snap100%79 snaps
63Tyler BiadaszC · Every snap99%78 snaps
5Jayden DanielsQB · Full-time95%75 snaps
17Terry McLaurinWR · Full-time86%68 snaps
86Zach ErtzTE · Full-time80%63 snaps
2Dyami BrownWR · Heavy rotation77%61 snaps
14Olamide ZaccheausWR · Heavy rotation72%57 snaps
73Trent ScottT · Heavy rotation65%51 snaps
30Austin EkelerRB · Heavy rotation59%47 snaps
8Brian RobinsonRB · Heavy rotation52%41 snaps
75Chris PaulG · Rotational35%28 snaps
80Jamison CrowderWR · Rotational29%23 snaps
87John BatesTE · Rotational27%21 snaps
12Luke McCaffreyWR · Situational15%12 snaps
18Marcus MariotaQB · Situational5%4 snaps
82Ben SinnottTE · Situational1%1 snap
26Jeremy McNicholsRB · Situational1%1 snap
60Michael DeiterC · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Michael DavisCBDaron PayneDTSam CosmiGJeff DriskelQBChris Rodriguez Jr.RBDominique HamptonSSK.J. OsbornWR
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive
77Mekhi BectonT · Every snap100%71 snaps
56Tyler SteenG · Every snap100%71 snaps
68Jordan MailataT · Every snap100%71 snaps
1Jalen HurtsQB · Full-time93%66 snaps
65Lane JohnsonT · Full-time90%64 snaps
11A.J. BrownWR · Full-time89%63 snaps
6DeVonta SmithWR · Full-time83%59 snaps
88Dallas GoedertTE · Full-time82%58 snaps
26Saquon BarkleyRB · Heavy rotation73%52 snaps
69Landon DickersonG · Heavy rotation55%39 snaps
83Jahan DotsonWR · Heavy rotation55%39 snaps
81Grant CalcaterraTE · Rotational44%31 snaps
51Cam JurgensG · Rotational38%27 snaps
89Johnny WilsonWR · Situational24%17 snaps
14Kenneth GainwellRB · Situational17%12 snaps
74Fred JohnsonT · Situational11%8 snaps
80Parris CampbellWR · Situational11%8 snaps
28Will ShipleyRB · Situational10%7 snaps
84E.J. JenkinsTE · Situational10%7 snaps
64Brett TothT · Situational7%5 snaps
7Kenny PickettQB · Situational7%5 snaps
48Khari BlasingameFB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Nick GatesCEli RicksCBLewis CineFSTrevor KeeganGTanner McKeeQBDarian KinnardTAinias SmithWR
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Barkley left+14% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(7:51) 26-S.Barkley left end for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 7:51 · Eagles · 1st & 10 at PHI 40 · gained 60 · +4.66 EP · +14.2% win probability
186 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 199 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 186 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 194. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 80 yards from the PHI 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
199 of 199 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
199
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
49%
Yards
811
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.1673%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.4264%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.4411%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.0744%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.5267%
Commanders2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Commanders1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Commanders0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Eagles2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
199 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
199 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Commanders3Eagles0
Field goal19 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Eagles 16
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Commanders3Eagles6
Commanders3Eagles7
Touchdown3 plays
How the play was built
A screen, no huddle, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Commanders 27 to the Commanders 39
Commanders3Eagles13
Commanders3Eagles14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Commanders 48 to the Commanders 4
The period ended9 plays, from the Commanders 27 to the Eagles 28
2nd quarter63 plays
Commanders6Eagles14
Field goal3 plays
No good15 plays, from the Eagles 29 to the Commanders 27
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Commanders12Eagles14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Commanders 44 to the Eagles 36
Commanders12Eagles20
Touchdown17 plays, from the Eagles 28 to the Commanders 1
Fumble lost1 play
Commanders12Eagles26
Commanders12Eagles27
Touchdown10 plays, from the Commanders 24 to the Commanders 4
Commanders15Eagles27
Field goal9 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Eagles 24
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 26 to the Commanders 28
Commanders15Eagles33
Commanders15Eagles34
Touchdown5 plays, from the Eagles 42 to the Commanders 9
Commanders21Eagles34
Commanders23Eagles34
Touchdown10 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Eagles 10
Punt9 plays, from the Eagles 31 to the Commanders 37
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Commanders 49
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter52 plays
Commanders23Eagles40
Commanders23Eagles41
Touchdown9 plays, from the Commanders 32 to the Commanders 1
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Commanders 41
Commanders23Eagles47
Commanders23Eagles48
Touchdown6 plays, from the Commanders 31 to the Commanders 4
Intercepted12 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Eagles 29
Commanders23Eagles54
Commanders23Eagles55
Touchdown8 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Commanders 2
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Commanders 37
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Eagles -6
Closing total
46.5
Commanders moneyline
+205
Eagles moneyline
-250
Eagles closed -6 and covered, winning by 32.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 78 — over by 31.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 40°F at kickoff; breezy at 10 mph out of the west; overcast.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Commanders 8 days · Eagles 7 days
Coaches
Dan Quinn vs Nick Sirianni
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 1:44
WAS +5% win prob
4-J.Elliott kicks 60 yards from PHI 35 to WAS 5. 26-J.McNichols to WAS 22 for 17 yards (28-W.Shipley). FUMBLES (28-W.Shipley), touched at WAS 22, RECOVERED by PHI-14-K.Gainwell at WAS 24.
2nd · 8:55WAS +5% win prob(8:55) 4-J.Elliott 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
