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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Super Bowl · Sun, Feb 9, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Super Bowl
It turned at Q1 6:37, 2nd and 11, on Jahan Dotson — 10.7 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Philadelphia Eagles 40–22 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 6:37, Eagles +10.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 6:37 · 2nd and 11
Jahan Dotson
Eagles
(6:37) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 83-J.Dotson for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 83-J.Dotson to KC 1 for 27 yards (35-J.Watson).
10.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.55 expected points per dropback, against Chiefs at -0.37 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Chiefs at 3 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Eagles won this one — 1 giveaway, against Chiefs at 3 giveaways.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.02 expected points per snap, against Chiefs at -0.34 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 4.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
(6:37) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 83-J.Dotson for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 83-J.Do
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jalen Hurts's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 6:18 left in the 1st put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Xavier Worthy24-yd TD catch24-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomes · two-point no good+66–34DeAndre Hopkins7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomes · two-point good+814–40Xavier Worthy50-yd TD catch50-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomes · two-point good+822–4011 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chiefscategory by categoryEagles
Eagles ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.55 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 51 snaps at a 86% dropback rate against Eagles’s 67 at 45%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 3, Eagles 4.
Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
KC's early-down pass rate, 83.8%, sat 25.4 points above their season number of 58.4% — they passed early by 2.9 times their own 8.8-point weekly swing.
37 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points. · +2.9σ from their own normal
PHI's blitz rate sent, 2.3%, sat 21.5 points below their season number of 23.8% — they sat back by 2.2 times their own 9.8-point weekly swing.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points. · −2.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
This is not a regular-season game, so every season number below is that team's 2024 regular season — the only stretch long enough to be a habit.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 23 pts
Over Expected room →Chiefs8.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their 5.0 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 49 snaps
Eagles-8.4 ptsright on their number · +0.6 vs their -9.0 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 67 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 11% to 89%
Tendencies room →Chiefs83.8%off script — passed early · +25.4 vs their 58.4%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+2.89× that swing) · 37 early downs
Eagles40.0%right on their number · −3.8 vs their 43.8%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 55 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 46%
Tendencies room →Chiefs11.4%leaned — dropped back clean · −9.9 vs their 21.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−1.81× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Eagles16.7%inside their normal wobble · −7.2 vs their 23.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 110%
Fourth Down room →Chiefs33.3%right on their number · +3.6 vs their 29.8%, and they swing ±24.4 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Eagles—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 46.1%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 60%
Tendencies room →Chiefs30.0%inside their normal wobble · −5.8 vs their 35.8%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.65× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Eagles2.3%off script — sat back · −21.5 vs their 23.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−2.20× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 43%
Tendencies room →Chiefs10.0%inside their normal wobble · −7.8 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.79× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Eagles22.7%leaned — got home · +9.3 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+1.19× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
KC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 83.8%, 25.4 points above their season mean of 58.4% and 2.9 times their own 8.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
21/32, 257 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
-15.3 expected points added · -3.1% completion over expected
Passing · PHI
17/22, 221 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
14.1 expected points added · +9.4% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Xavier Worthy banked 21.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier WorthyWR · Alpha Receiver | 35.7 | +21.2 | 91% | 89% | 25% | 45% | 8/8, 157 yd, 2 TD |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 28.0 | +3.2 | 91% | — | 0% | — | 17/22, 221 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 11 car, 72 yd, 1 TD |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 22.8 | +5.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/32, 257 yd, 3 TD, 2 INT · 4 car, 25 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Featured Receiver | 16.9 | +5.2 | 77% | 90% | 22% | 37% | 4/5, 69 yd, 1 TD |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Committee Back | 15.7 | −11.2 | 81% | 87% | 30% | 0% | 25 car, 57 yd · 6/7, 40 yd |
| A.J. BrownWR · Featured Receiver | 13.3 | +2.7 | 88% | 97% | 22% | 39% | 3/5, 43 yd, 1 TD |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.8 | +1.3 | 38% | 38% | 16% | 22% | 2/5, 18 yd, 1 TD |
| Travis KelceTE · Featured Receiver | 7.9 | −2.1 | 95% | 91% | 19% | 14% | 4/6, 39 yd |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.2 | +0.5 | 59% | 73% | 13% | 16% | 2/3, 42 yd |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | +1.6 | 84% | 90% | 9% | 11% | 2/2, 27 yd |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | +0.7 | 54% | 53% | 6% | 2% | 2/2, 16 yd |
| Marquise BrownWR · Featured Receiver | 3.5 | −4.1 | 73% | 69% | 19% | 16% | 2/6, 15 yd |
| Kareem HuntRB | 2.4 | −0.5 | 20% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 3 car, 9 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Isiah PachecoRB | 2.2 | −1.8 | 41% | 44% | 6% | 0% | 3 car, 7 yd · 1/2, 5 yd |
| Justin WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | — | 18% | 18% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.1 | 32% | 33% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Kenneth GainwellRB | 1.0 | −1.8 | 19% | 13% | 0% | — | 6 car, 10 yd |
| Samaje PerineRB | 0.8 | −0.7 | 39% | 42% | 3% | 0% | 1 car, 8 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Nikko RemigioWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Will ShipleyRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Johnny WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 11% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Kenny PickettQB | -0.4 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Goedert. PENALTY on KC-22-T.McDuffie, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at KC 42 - No Play.
Q1 7:24 · Eagles · 3rd & 5 at KC 42 · gained nothing · +2.31 EP · +10.4% win probability
163 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 176 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 90 yards from the KC 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Chiefs0
Eagles6Chiefs0Eagles7Chiefs0Eagles10Chiefs0Eagles16Chiefs0Eagles17Chiefs0Eagles23Chiefs0Eagles24Chiefs0Eagles27Chiefs0Eagles33Chiefs0Eagles34Chiefs6Eagles34Chiefs6Eagles37Chiefs6Eagles40Chiefs12Eagles40Chiefs14Eagles40Chiefs20Eagles40Chiefs22Eagles40Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chiefs at Eagles, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 21/32 | 257 | 3 | 2 | 6 | −15.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Samaje Perine |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Worthy | 8 | 8 | 157 | 2 | 25% | +11.1 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 | 19% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drue Tranquill | 7 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bolton | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Reid |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 17/22 | 221 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +14.1 |
| Kenny Pickett | 0/1 | 0 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_22_KC_PHI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 62 — over by 13.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 8 |
| 8.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.7 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | −0.9 |
| −0.3 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 16% | −5.0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 6% | +0.5 |
| Marquise Brown | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 19% | −8.4 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +0.1 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6% | −0.5 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Samaje Perine | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Chamarri Conner | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent McDuffie | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Pennel | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tershawn Wharton | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Karlaftis | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Cook | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Leo Chenal | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −2.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 11 | 72 | 6.5 | 1 | +3.1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 25 | 57 | 2.3 | 0 | −10.2 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 4 | 5 | 69 | 1 | 22% | +6.3 |
| A.J. Brown | 3 | 5 | 43 | 1 | 22% | +2.2 |
| Jahan Dotson | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 | 13% | +1.3 |
| Saquon Barkley | 6 | 7 | 40 | 0 | 30% | +2.3 |
| Dallas Goedert | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 9% | +2.3 |
| Johnny Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Baun | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Josh Sweat | 2 | 4 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Oren Burks | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Milton Williams | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chauncey Gardner-Johnson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reed Blankenship | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinyon Mitchell | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper DeJean | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Davis | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
