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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:56 AM ET · 16 to play
Arizona Cardinals 20 at New Orleans Saints 13. Final.
Cardinals -6 ✓U 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 1
Arizona Cardinals 20, Saints 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 13:41, 2nd and 4, on Marvin Harrison Jr. — 10.1 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 13:41 · 2nd and 4
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Cardinals
(13:41) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-M.Harrison ran ob at NO 14 for 45 yards (4-K.McKinstry).
Dome
Cardinals closed -6 and covered, winning by 7.
Arizona Cardinals 20–13. Biggest swing: Q2 13:41, Cardinals +10.1% win probability on one snap.
10.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetCardinalsQ1 11:39(11:39) 12-B.Gillikin punts 60 yards to NO 16, Center-46-A.Brewer. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 23 for 7 yards (27-A.Davis-Gaither; 84-E.Higgins).
9.8pts
Alvin KamaraSaintsQ2 14:26(14:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara right guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.8pts
What separated them
Red zone
Cardinals won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Saints at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Cardinals won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Saints at 4 chunk plays.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Cardinals won this one — 6 of 13 on third down, against Saints at 5 of 14 on third down.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cardinals won this one — +0.04 expected points per snap, against Saints at -0.04 expected points per snap.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Cardinals176 of 182 plays carry both curves
(13:41) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-M.Harrison ran ob at NO 14 for 45 yards (4-K.McKinstry).
Swing −10.1 for SaintsExpected points −3.19 for SaintsThe model had Saints 25 points higher than the market did.play 46
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 13:41NO +10% win prob(13:41) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-M.Harrison ran ob at NO 14 for 45 yards (4-K.McKinstry).
1st · 11:39NO +10% win prob(11:39) 12-B.Gillikin punts 60 yards to NO 16, Center-46-A.Brewer. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 23 for 7 yards (27-A.Davis-Gaither; 84-E.Higgins).
2nd · 14:26NO +10% win prob(14:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara right guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:07NO +9% win prob(2:07) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 85-T.McBride to NO 20 for 25 yards (23-J.Blackmon; 4-K.McKinstry).
1st · 13:40ARI +9% win prob(13:40) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 25 for -11 yards (94-C.Jordan).
4th · 3:13ARI +6% win prob(3:13) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to ARI 5 for -2 yards (2-Ma.Wilson, 55-D.Stills).
1st · 8:11
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
James Conner's 4-yard touchdown catch with 0:32 left in the 2nd put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:07Chad Ryland·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap A.Brewer+33–0
3rd9:21Chad Ryland·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap A.Brewer+320–10
4th2:44Blake Grupe·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder K.Kroeger · snap Z.Wood+320–13
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cardinalscategory by categorySaints
Cardinals3–5Saints
276Total yards315
4.5Yards per play4.7
41%Success rate43%
46%Third-down rate36%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays4
16First downs17
5Sacks taken1
0Turnovers0
The read
Saints ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Cardinals: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.04Saints: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.08Cardinals: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.03Saints: −0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Cardinals: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.07Saints: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 61 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Saints’s 67 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 3, Saints 5.
NoteCardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 19 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.1 vs their 11.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−1.44× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Saints13.5%
right on their number · −0.8 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteNO's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 6.4%, 12.4 points below their season mean of 18.8% and 1.8 times their own 7.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Murray pass+14% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:07) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 85-T.McBride to NO 20 for 25 yards (23-J.Blackmon; 4-K.McKinstry).
Q2 2:07 · Cardinals · 3rd & 12 at NO 45 · gained 25 · +2.79 EP · +14.0% win probability
174 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 177. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 75 yards from the NO 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
42%
Yards
591
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.0178%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.0170%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.0756%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR14+0.1529%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.3050%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Cardinals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 22 to the Cardinals 36
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 23 to the Saints 26
Cardinals3Saints0
Field goal14 plays, from the Cardinals 34 to the Saints 19
The period ended14 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Cardinals 37
2nd quarter42 plays
Cardinals3Saints6
Cardinals3Saints7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 18
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Cardinals9Saints7
Cardinals10Saints7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to the Saints 1
Cardinals10Saints10
Field goal12 plays, from the Saints 45 to the Cardinals 18
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Cardinals16Saints10
Cardinals17Saints10
Touchdown14 plays, from the Cardinals 29 to the Saints 4
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 15 to the Saints 37
Cardinals20Saints10
Field goal6 plays, from the Cardinals 19 to the Saints 30
No good17 plays, from the Saints 27 to the Cardinals 20
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 28 to the Cardinals 46
The period ended4 plays, from the Saints 27 to the Saints 37
4th quarter60 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 38 to the Saints 40
Punt11 plays, from the Cardinals 6 to the Cardinals 41
Punt5 plays
The period ended9 plays, from the Saints 40 to the Saints 28
Cardinals20Saints13
Field goal10 plays, from the Saints 36 to the Cardinals 3
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 26 to the Cardinals 32
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Saints 42 to the Cardinals 18
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cardinals -6
Closing total
44.5
Cardinals moneyline
-270
Saints moneyline
+220
Cardinals closed -6 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 33 — under by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Cardinals 7 days · Saints 7 days
Coaches
Jonathan Gannon vs Kellen Moore
NO +6% win prob
(8:11) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short middle to 18-M.Harrison (4-K.McKinstry). PENALTY on NO-4-K.McKinstry, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at NO 47 - No Play.
2nd · 4:46NO +6% win prob(4:46) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 85-T.McBride to ARI 40 for 11 yards (20-P.Werner).
