For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Ravens177 of 191 plays carry both curves
(:03) 15-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-40-B.Robbins.
Swing +48.6 for BillsExpected points +0.18 for BillsThe model had Bills 10 points higher than the market did.play 190
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:03BUF +49% win prob(:03) 15-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-40-B.Robbins.
4th · 0:53BUF +25% win prob(:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 5-J.Palmer ran ob at BAL 34 for 32 yards (14-K.Hamilton).
4th · 0:46BUF +14% win prob(:46) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 0-K.Coleman to BAL 9 for 25 yards (23-J.Alexander).
2nd · 13:41BUF +11% win prob(13:41) 22-D.Henry right tackle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:06BUF +10% win prob(3:06) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 85-J.Hawes to BAL 1 for 29 yards (2-N.Wiggins).
4th · 1:33BAL +10% win prob(1:33) 11-J.Stout punts 42 yards to BUF 20, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.
4th · 1:58BAL +9% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Matt Prater's 32-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th2:00Josh Allen·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+640–38
4th0:03Matt Prater·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder B.Robbins · snap R.FergusonLead never changed again+340–41
15 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categoryBills
Ravens4–5Bills
432Total yards502
8.6Yards per play6.5
50%Success rate49%
55%Third-down rate50%
1Red-zone touchdowns5
15Explosive plays9
18First downs30
2Sacks taken1
1Turnovers0
The read
Bills ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.52 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.39Ravens: +0.39 expected points added per play
+0.23Bills: +0.23 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.52Ravens: +0.52 expected points added per play
+0.32Bills: +0.32 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.28Ravens: +0.28 expected points added per play
+0.03Bills: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 50 snaps at a 44% dropback rate against Bills’s 77 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 7, Bills 7.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BUF's play-action rate, 5.6%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 0.8 points clear of the next team along.
54 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 17 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.5 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
Bills18.2%
right on their number · +1.8 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
NoteBUF's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 67.8%, 17.5 points above their season mean of 50.3% and 1.5 times their own 11.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
8Lamar JacksonQB · Every snap100%51 snaps
72Andrew VorheesG · Every snap100%51 snaps
77Daniel FaaleleT · Every snap100%51 snaps
64Tyler LinderbaumC · Every snap100%51 snaps
70Roger RosengartenT · Every snap100%51 snaps
79Ronnie StanleyT · Every snap100%51 snaps
4Zay FlowersWR · Full-time90%46 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Heavy rotation75%38 snaps
7Rashod BatemanWR · Heavy rotation73%37 snaps
88Charlie KolarTE · Heavy rotation61%31 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Heavy rotation57%29 snaps
43Justice HillRB · Rotational45%23 snaps
10DeAndre HopkinsWR · Rotational35%18 snaps
16Tylan WallaceWR · Rotational31%16 snaps
84Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE · Rotational29%15 snaps
26Rasheen AliRB · Situational2%1 snap
66Ben ClevelandG · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Patrick RicardFBReuben LoweryFSDavid OjaboOLBKeaton MitchellRBCarson VinsonTIsaiah LikelyTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Cooper RushQBCorey BullockT
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
64O'Cyrus TorrenceG · Every snap100%85 snaps
76David EdwardsG · Every snap100%85 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Every snap100%85 snaps
79Spencer BrownT · Every snap100%85 snaps
66Connor McGovernC · Every snap100%85 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Every snap100%85 snaps
0Keon ColemanWR · Full-time88%75 snaps
10Khalil ShakirWR · Heavy rotation71%60 snaps
5Josh PalmerWR · Heavy rotation62%53 snaps
4James CookRB · Heavy rotation56%48 snaps
88Dawson KnoxTE · Heavy rotation56%48 snaps
86Dalton KincaidTE · Heavy rotation51%43 snaps
26Ty JohnsonRB · Rotational33%28 snaps
14Tyrell ShaversWR · Situational20%17 snaps
85Jackson HawesTE · Situational19%16 snaps
41Reggie GilliamFB · Situational14%12 snaps
18Elijah MooreWR · Situational14%12 snaps
22Ray DavisRB · Situational12%10 snaps
70Alec AndersonG · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 6
Sedrick Van Pran-GrangerCTre'Davious WhiteCBLandon JacksonDEJordan HancockFSChase LundtTCurtis SamuelWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Matt Prater+39% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) 15-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-40-B.Robbins.
Q4 0:03 · Bills · 4th & goal at BAL 14 · gained nothing · +0.18 EP · +38.5% win probability
175 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 191 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 186. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
15 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 85 yards from the BAL 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
191 of 191 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
191
EPA per play
+0.24
Success rate
49%
Yards
929
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56+0.1677%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22+0.2759%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.7639%
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.330%
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.390%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
191 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
191 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Ravens0Bills6
Ravens0Bills7
Touchdown10 plays, from midfield to the Ravens 14
Ravens3Bills7
Field goal15 plays, from the Ravens 31 to the Bills 14
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 35 to the Bills 44
The period ended4 plays, from the Ravens 15 to the Ravens 46
2nd quarter48 plays
Ravens9Bills7
Ravens10Bills7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Ravens 48 to the Bills 30
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 23 to the Bills 27
Ravens16Bills7
Ravens17Bills7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Ravens 31 to the Bills 10
Ravens17Bills10
Field goal14 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Ravens 7
Ravens20Bills10
Field goal13 plays, from the Ravens 46 to the Bills 17
Ravens20Bills13
Field goal6 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Ravens 25
3rd quarter40 plays
Ravens26Bills13
Ravens27Bills13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Bills 23
Ravens27Bills19
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bills 40 to the Ravens 2
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 33 to the Ravens 38
Punt8 plays, from the Bills 16 to the Bills 29
Ravens33Bills19
Ravens34Bills19
Touchdown4 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Bills 29
The period ended4 plays, from the Bills 16 to the Bills 20
4th quarter68 plays
Ravens34Bills25
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bills 28 to the Ravens 2
Ravens40Bills25
Touchdown6 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Bills 46
Punt8 plays, from the Bills 28 to the Ravens 48
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Ravens 41
Ravens40Bills31
Ravens40Bills32
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Ravens 10
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Ravens 28 to the Ravens 41
Ravens40Bills38
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Touchdown5 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Ravens 1
The period ended8 plays, from the Ravens 31 to the Ravens 38
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Ravens40Bills41
Field goal13 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Ravens 9
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
