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2025 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 7, 2025 · New Era Field

Baltimore Ravens

40

Buffalo BillsWinner

41

BAL -1.5 upsetO 50.5 ✓

Buffalo Bills 41–40 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, BUF +49% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3BUF ↑BAL ↓
Q4 · 0:03BAL 40 — BUF 41BUF ball · 4th & 14BUF 51%

(:03) 15-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-40-B.Robbins.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:03BUF +49% win prob(:03) 15-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-40-B.Robbins.
  2. Q4 · 0:53BUF +25% win prob(:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 5-J.Palmer ran ob at BAL 34 for 32 yards (14-K.Hamilton).
  3. Q4 · 0:46BUF +14% win prob(:46) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 0-K.Coleman to BAL 9 for 25 yards (23-J.Alexander).
  4. Q2 · 13:41BUF +11% win prob(13:41) 22-D.Henry right tackle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:23BUF Touchdown

    (11:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 86-D.Kincaid for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 0 — BUF 7
  2. Q1 · 3:43BAL Field goal

    (3:43) 33-T.Loop 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 3 — BUF 7
  3. Q2 · 13:41BAL Touchdown

    (13:41) 22-D.Henry right tackle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 10 — BUF 7
  4. Q2 · 9:51BAL Touchdown

    (9:51) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson left tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 17 — BUF 7
  5. Q2 · 2:51BUF Field goal

    (2:51) 15-M.Prater 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-40-B.Robbins.

    Score after this play: BAL 17 — BUF 10
  6. Q2 · 0:35BAL Field goal

    (:35) 33-T.Loop 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 20 — BUF 10
  7. Q2 · 0:01BUF Field goal

    (:01) 15-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-40-B.Robbins.

    Score after this play: BAL 20 — BUF 13
  8. Q3 · 12:54BAL Touchdown

    (12:54) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 27 — BUF 13
  9. Q3 · 7:51BUF Touchdown

    (7:51) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 4-J.Cook up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: BAL 27 — BUF 19
  10. Q3 · 1:14BAL Touchdown

    (1:14) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 34 — BUF 19
  11. Q4 · 12:56BUF Touchdown

    (12:56) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: BAL 34 — BUF 25
  12. Q4 · 11:50BAL Touchdown

    (11:50) 22-D.Henry left tackle for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: BAL 40 — BUF 25
  13. Q4 · 4:05BUF Touchdown

    (4:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 0-K.Coleman for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [53-K.Van Noy]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 40 — BUF 32
  14. Q4 · 2:00BUF Touchdown

    (2:00) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: BAL 40 — BUF 38
  15. Q4 · 0:03BUF Field goal

    (:03) 15-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-40-B.Robbins.

    Score after this play: BAL 40 — BUF 41

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRavensBills
Offensive plays5077
Total yards432502 (edge)
Yards per play8.6 (edge)6.5
Expected points added / play0.39 (edge)0.23
Success rate50% (edge)49%
Dropback rate44%70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.52 (edge)0.32
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.28 (edge)0.03
Third downs6/11 (edge)7/14
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)15 (edge)9
First downs gained on snaps1830 (edge)
Sacks taken21 (edge)
Turnovers10 (edge)

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

33/46, 394 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

14.2 expected points added · +8.6% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

14/19, 209 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.8 expected points added · +8.7% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Derrick HenryRB

18 att, 169 yds, 2 TD

3.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

6 att, 70 yds, 1 TD

9.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Zay FlowersWR

7/9 for 143 yds, 1 TD

47% of team targets · 9.8 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Keon ColemanWR

8/11 for 112 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 8.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BUF509453:41Touchdown +7
2BALBAL 3113357:41Field goal +3
3BUFBUF 35571:59Punt
4BALBAL 157853:04Touchdown +7
5BUFBUF 23541:32Punt
6BALBAL 315692:16Touchdown +7
7BUFBUF 3014636:57Field goal +3
8BALBAL 469232:19Field goal +3
9BUFBUF 275480:31Field goal +3
10BALBAL 356652:12Touchdown +7
11BUFBUF 4011335:01Touchdown +6
12BALBAL 33501:33Punt
13BUFBUF 167213:32Punt
14BALBAL 324681:33Touchdown +7
15BUFBUF 1610843:18Touchdown +6
16BALBAL 356651:09Touchdown +6
17BUFBUF 287192:24Punt
18BALBAL 354112:02Punt
19BUFBUF 2011723:20Touchdown +7
20BALBAL 28340:50Fumble
21BUFBAL 305301:08Touchdown +6
22BALBAL 31570:32Punt
23BUFBUF 209761:26Field goal +3

15 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 85 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Lamar Jackson14/192092028.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Derrick Henry181699.423.5
Lamar Jackson67011.719.7
Zay Flowers284.00-0.0
Rasheen Ali155.00-0.0
Justice Hill2-14-7.00-2.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Zay Flowers79143147%9.8
DeAndre Hopkins2235111%2.6
Derrick Henry111305%0.9
Rashod Bateman2410021%-1.8
Mark Andrews11505%0.2
Justice Hill123011%0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Roquan Smith820.000
Kyle Hamilton630.002
Malaki Starks340.000
Chidobe Awuzie240.000
Nnamdi Madubuike421.000
Nate Wiggins500.000
Tavius Robinson410.000
Teddye Buchanan310.000
Marlon Humphrey400.000
Jaire Alexander210.000

Buffalo Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Josh Allen33/4639420114.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
James Cook13443.41-2.1
Josh Allen14302.122.0
Ty Johnson22412.001.9
Elijah Moore188.000.5
Ray Davis122.00-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Keon Coleman811112124%8.0
Khalil Shakir6964020%-0.0
Josh Palmer5961020%0.9
James Cook5558011%2.9
Dalton Kincaid444819%2.9
Jackson Hawes112902%2.8
Dawson Knox222004%1.2
Elijah Moore11302%-1.0
Ty Johnson02004%-1.1
Ray Davis11-102%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Christian Benford520.000
Ed Oliver601.000
Taylor Rapp420.000
Dorian Williams410.000
Cole Bishop400.000
Matt Milano401.000
Terrel Bernard210.000
Greg Rousseau300.001
Taron Johnson200.000
Cam Lewis200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BAL -1.5
Closing total
50.5
BAL moneyline
-130
BUF moneyline
+110

Ravens closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 50.5; the game landed 81 — over by 30.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather
58°F, wind 8 mph
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
BAL 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Sean McDermott