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2025 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 7, 2025 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Carolina Panthers

10

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

26

JAX -4.5 ✓U 45.5 ✓

Jacksonville Jaguars 26–10. Biggest swing: Q2 8:32, JAX +24% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3JAX ↑CAR ↓
Q2 · 8:32CAR 3 — JAX 10JAX ballJAX 76%

39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 8:32JAX +24% win prob39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
  2. Q2 · 12:52CAR +13% win prob(12:52) 9-B.Young pass short right intended for 17-X.Legette INTERCEPTED by 23-F.Oluokun (29-E.Murray) at CAR 35. 23-F.Oluokun to CAR 35 for no gain (0-J.Sanders). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
  3. Q1 · 12:03JAX +10% win prob(12:03) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 85-B.Strange to CAR 35 for 24 yards (8-Ja.Horn; 22-L.Ransom). Penalty on CAR-99-T.Wharton, Defensive Offside, declined.
  4. Q2 · 3:39JAX +7% win prob(3:39) 1-T.Etienne up the middle to CAR 20 for 71 yards (56-C.Rozeboom).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:18JAX Field goal

    (8:18) 39-C.Little 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: CAR 0 — JAX 3
  2. Q1 · 0:41CAR Field goal

    (:41) 10-R.Fitzgerald 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: CAR 3 — JAX 3
  3. Q2 · 8:38JAX Touchdown

    (8:38) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 84-H.Long for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 3 — JAX 10
  4. Q2 · 1:55JAX Touchdown

    (1:55) 7-B.Thomas left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 3 — JAX 17
  5. Q2 · 0:06JAX Field goal

    (:06) 39-C.Little 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. PENALTY on CAR-95-D.Brown, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

    Score after this play: CAR 3 — JAX 20
  6. Q4 · 7:12JAX Field goal

    (7:12) 39-C.Little 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: CAR 3 — JAX 23
  7. Q4 · 4:54CAR Touchdown

    (4:54) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 30-C.Hubbard for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 10 — JAX 23
  8. Q4 · 2:00JAX Field goal

    (2:00) 39-C.Little 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: CAR 10 — JAX 26

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPanthersJaguars
Offensive plays6060
Total yards256380 (edge)
Yards per play4.36.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.260.15 (edge)
Success rate35%48% (edge)
Dropback rate67%53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.340.10 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.090.22 (edge)
Third downs8/15 (edge)5/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)37 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1319 (edge)
Sacks taken10 (edge)
Turnovers31 (edge)

Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.26.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

19/31, 178 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

1.3 expected points added · -4.1% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

18/35, 154 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-15.4 expected points added · -12.4% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

16 att, 143 yds, 0 TD

1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

16 att, 57 yds, 0 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Tetairoa McMillanWR

5/9 for 68 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 1.7 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Brenton StrangeTE

4/4 for 59 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 7.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1JAXJAX 2814876:45Field goal +3
2CARCAR 2914417:39Field goal +3
3JAXJAX 22552:10Punt
4CARCAR 16290:42Interception
5JAXCAR 359354:12Touchdown +7
6CARCAR 2211394:53Punt
7JAXJAX 95911:50Touchdown +7
8CARCAR 406331:01Fumble
9JAXJAX 326440:47Field goal +3
10CARCAR 20200:01End of half
11CARCAR 409295:15Turnover on downs
12JAXJAX 6430:56Punt
13CARCAR 277104:10Punt
14JAXJAX 146232:39Interception
15CARJAX 384101:44Turnover on downs
16JAXJAX 3315548:07Field goal +3
17CARCAR 2012752:22Touchdown +7
18JAXCAR 488382:50Field goal +3
19CARCAR 355101:13Interception
20JAXCAR 48200:44End of game

8 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 91 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bryce Young18/35154121-15.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chuba Hubbard16573.60-1.7
Bryce Young5408.001.9
Rico Dowdle3124.00-0.1
Trevor Etienne144.00-0.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tetairoa McMillan5968026%1.7
Chuba Hubbard3532115%1.4
Ja'Tavion Sanders232709%1.1
Hunter Renfrow2611018%-1.7
Xavier Legette3710021%-10.3
Rico Dowdle23409%-3.7
Tommy Tremble11203%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Tre'von Moehrig740.000
Christian Rozeboom710.000
A'Shawn Robinson420.000
Trevin Wallace500.000
Nick Scott230.001
Mike Jackson400.001
Tershawn Wharton130.000
Derrick Brown310.000
Bobby Brown III120.000
Jaycee Horn110.011

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence19/311781101.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Travis Etienne161438.901.7
Trevor Lawrence4123.000.6
Tank Bigsby5122.40-0.3
Bhayshul Tuten3113.70-0.9
Brian Thomas Jr.199.012.5
LeQuint Allen Jr.177.001.2
Dyami Brown263.001.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Brenton Strange4459014%7.0
Dyami Brown3452014%4.9
Travis Hunter6833028%-5.2
Travis Etienne3313010%0.1
Brian Thomas Jr.1711024%-4.3
Hunter Long11613%2.0
LeQuint Allen Jr.11403%-0.7
Johnny Mundt01003%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Foye Oluokun550.011
Andrew Wingard360.000
Eric Murray340.002
Tyson Campbell420.001
Jourdan Lewis320.013
Jarrian Jones400.000
Dennis Gardeck200.000
Ventrell Miller110.001
Travon Walker110.000
Dawuane Smoot111.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
JAX -4.5
Closing total
45.5
CAR moneyline
+170
JAX moneyline
-205

Jaguars closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 16.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 36 — under by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
85°F, wind 3 mph
Referee
Alex Moore
Rest
CAR 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches
Dave Canales vs Liam Coen