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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:10 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Carolina Panthers 10 at Jacksonville Jaguars 26. Final.
Jaguars -4.5 ✓U 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 1
Jacksonville Jaguars 26, Panthers 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 8:32 — 23.7 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Jaguars closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 16.
Jacksonville Jaguars 26–10. Biggest swing: Q2 8:32, Jaguars +23.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 8:32
Unnamed on the sheet
Jaguars
39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
23.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Brenton StrangeJaguarsQ1 12:03(12:03) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 85-B.Strange to CAR 35 for 24 yards (8-Ja.Horn; 22-L.Ransom). Penalty on CAR-99-T.Wharton, Defensive Offside, declined.
9.6pts
Foye OluokunJaguarsQ2 12:52(12:52) 9-B.Young pass short right intended for 17-X.Legette INTERCEPTED by 23-F.Oluokun (29-E.Murray) at CAR 35. 23-F.Oluokun to CAR 35 for no gain (0-J.Sanders). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
12.6pts
What separated them
Every snap
Jaguars won this one — +0.15 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.26 expected points per snap.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Jaguars won this one — 1 giveaway, against Panthers at 3 giveaways.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Jaguars won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jaguars won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Panthers at 3 chunk plays.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the officially scored play-by-play, which lands usually within two hours of the final, or the next morning when its release runs late.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Panthers157 of 169 plays carry both curves
Q2 · 8:32Panthers 3 — Jaguars 10JAX ballJAX 76%
Panthers 24%Jaguars 76%
39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Swing +23.7 for JaguarsExpected points +0.07 for JaguarsThe model had Panthers 6 points higher than the market did.play 48
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 8:32JAX +24% win prob39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
2nd · 12:52CAR +13% win prob(12:52) 9-B.Young pass short right intended for 17-X.Legette INTERCEPTED by 23-F.Oluokun (29-E.Murray) at CAR 35. 23-F.Oluokun to CAR 35 for no gain (0-J.Sanders). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
1st · 12:03JAX +10% win prob(12:03) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 85-B.Strange to CAR 35 for 24 yards (8-Ja.Horn; 22-L.Ransom). Penalty on CAR-99-T.Wharton, Defensive Offside, declined.
2nd · 3:39JAX +7% win prob(3:39) 1-T.Etienne up the middle to CAR 20 for 71 yards (56-C.Rozeboom).
1st · 2:58JAX +7% win prob(2:58) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 4-T.McMillan to JAX 35 for 11 yards (3-T.Campbell) [29-E.Murray].
2nd · 5:29JAX +6% win prob(5:29) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles left end ran ob at JAX 41 for 22 yards (42-A.Wingard).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Hunter Long's 6-yard touchdown catch with 8:38 left in the 2nd put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:18Cam Little·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+30–3
1st0:41Ryan Fitzgerald·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Jansen+33–3
4th2:00Cam Little·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+310–26
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Pantherscategory by categoryJaguars
Panthers1–8Jaguars
256Total yards380
4.3Yards per play6.3
35%Success rate48%
53%Third-down rate42%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays7
13First downs19
1Sacks taken0
3Turnovers1
The read
Jaguars ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.26Panthers: −0.26 expected points added per play
+0.15Jaguars: +0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.34Panthers: −0.34 expected points added per play
+0.10Jaguars: +0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Panthers: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.22Jaguars: +0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 60 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 60 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 2, Jaguars 5.
NoteJaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 18 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.2 vs their 9.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−1.13× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Jaguars12.5%
right on their number · −0.7 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±4.2 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteCAR's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.1%, 6.2 points below their season mean of 9.3% and 1.1 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Little extra+30% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Q2 8:32 · Jaguars · PAT at CAR 15 · gained nothing · +0.07 EP · +29.8% win probability
155 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 91 yards from the JAX 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
41%
Yards
633
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.2965%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.0963%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.4527%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.3644%
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Panthers0Jaguars3
Field goal16 plays, from the Jaguars 28 to the Panthers 17
Panthers3Jaguars3
Field goal14 plays, from the Panthers 29 to the Jaguars 30
2nd quarter1 plays
1st quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
2nd quarter54 plays
Punt2 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Panthers 16 to the Panthers 25
Panthers3Jaguars9
Panthers3Jaguars10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Panthers 6
Punt12 plays, from the Panthers 22 to the Jaguars 39
Panthers3Jaguars16
Panthers3Jaguars17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jaguars 9 to the Panthers 9
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Panthers 40 to the Jaguars 39
Panthers3Jaguars20
Field goal10 plays, from the Jaguars 32 to the Panthers 29
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Panthers 40 to the Jaguars 5
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 6 to the Jaguars 9
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 27 to the Panthers 49
Intercepted7 plays, from the Jaguars 14 to the Jaguars 31
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Jaguars 38 to the Jaguars 33
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter46 plays
Panthers3Jaguars23
Field goal15 plays, from the Jaguars 35 to the Panthers 18
Panthers9Jaguars23
Panthers10Jaguars23
Touchdown13 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Jaguars 27
Panthers10Jaguars26
Field goal10 plays, from the Panthers 48 to the Panthers 10
Intercepted5 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Panthers 45
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Jaguars -4.5
Closing total
45.5
Panthers moneyline
+170
Jaguars moneyline
-205
Jaguars closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 16.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 36 — under by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 80°F at kickoff; still at 1 mph out of the north-west; 0.13 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Alex Moore
Rest
Panthers 7 days · Jaguars 7 days
Coaches
Dave Canales vs Liam Coen
2nd · 3:51CAR +5% win prob(3:51) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to JAX 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-57-B.Martin-Scott.
1st · 9:49CAR +5% win prob(9:49) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left [94-A.Robinson]. PENALTY on JAX-16-T.Lawrence, Intentional Grounding, 12 yards, enforced at CAR 19.
