For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:52 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 1 · Thu, Sep 4, 2025 · Lincoln Financial Field
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 1
It turned at Q3 4:52, 1st and 10, on Miles Sanders — 15.3 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 4:52 · 1st and 10
Miles Sanders
Eagles
(4:52) 24-M.Sanders left guard to PHI 10 for 1 yard (30-J.Campbell; 94-B.Young). FUMBLES (30-J.Campbell), RECOVERED by PHI-27-Q.Mitchell at PHI 10. 27-Q.Mitchell to PHI 16 for 6 yards (4-D.Prescott).
Philadelphia Eagles 24–20. Biggest swing: Q3 4:52, Eagles +15.3% win probability on one snap.
15.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Eagles won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Cowboys at 2 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Eagles won this one — no giveaways, against Cowboys at 1 giveaway.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 4 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.25 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at +0.03 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 14.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
(4:52) 24-M.Sanders left guard to PHI 10 for 1 yard (30-J.Campbell; 94-B.Young). FUMBLES (30-J.Campbell), RECOVERED by PHI-27-Q.Mitchell at PHI 10. 27-Q.Mitchell to PHI 16 for 6 yards (4-D.Prescott).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Saquon Barkley's 10-yard rushing touchdown with 0:56 left in the 2nd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cowboyscategory by categoryEagles
Eagles ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Cowboys, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 55 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Eagles’s 59 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 3, Eagles 3.
Cowboys outgained Eagles 307-305 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PHI's sack or hit rate, 2.9%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 0.2 points clear of the next team along.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Cowboys-0.7 ptsright on their number · +0.2 vs their -0.9 pts, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 55 snaps
Eagles-0.6 ptsright on their number · +1.8 vs their -2.4 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 85%
Tendencies room →Cowboys55.8%right on their number · +0.7 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 43 early downs
Eagles48.9%right on their number · −3.9 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 47%
Tendencies room →Cowboys23.5%inside their normal wobble · −4.0 vs their 27.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Eagles21.2%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 22.4%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -59% to 125%
Fourth Down room →Cowboys—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 52.9%.
Eagles—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 32.8%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 58%
Tendencies room →Cowboys18.2%inside their normal wobble · −9.1 vs their 27.2%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Eagles17.6%leaned — sat back · −8.6 vs their 26.2%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 36%
Tendencies room →Cowboys15.2%right on their number · −1.3 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Eagles2.9%off script — stayed blocked · −13.7 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−2.09× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
PHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.9%, 13.7 points below their season mean of 16.6% and 2.1 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · DAL
21/34, 188 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
1.7 expected points added · +0.2% completion over expected
Passing · PHI
19/23, 152 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
1.6 expected points added · +21.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Jalen Hurts banked 5.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 24.3 | +5.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/23, 152 yd · 14 car, 62 yd, 2 TD |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Bell Cow Back | 20.4 | +3.1 | 77% | 83% | 9% | 1% | 15 car, 54 yd, 2 TD · 2/3, 10 yd |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Committee Back | 18.4 | −1.3 | 79% | 64% | 25% | 0% | 18 car, 60 yd, 1 TD · 4/5, 24 yd |
| CeeDee LambWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.0 | −3.9 | 92% | 89% | 39% | 55% | 7/13, 110 yd |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Alpha Receiver | 11.4 | +0.8 | 83% | 67% | 35% | 30% | 7/7, 44 yd |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.9 | +4.2 | 46% | 45% | 15% | 43% | 3/3, 59 yd |
| Dak PrescottQB · Starter QB | 7.8 | −6.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/34, 188 yd · 1 car, 3 yd |
| Jake FergusonTE · Featured Receiver | 7.3 | −2.6 | 77% | 83% | 18% | 11% | 5/6, 23 yd |
| George PickensWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.0 | −0.7 | 92% | 94% | 12% | 16% | 3/4, 30 yd |
| KaVontae TurpinWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | +0.5 | 46% | 49% | 6% | 2% | 2 car, 9 yd · 2/2, 18 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | +0.4 | 89% | 70% | 15% | 4% | 3/3, 16 yd |
| Miles SandersRB | 4.0 | +0.6 | 18% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 4 car, 53 yd · 1/1, -3 yd |
| Will ShipleyRB | 2.6 | +1.2 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| A.J. BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.2 | 87% | 70% | 5% | 7% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Kylen GransonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −0.3 | 27% | 12% | 5% | 0% | 1/1, 1 yd |
| Jalen TolbertWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −3.6 | 44% | 51% | 6% | 3% | 1/2, 0 yd |
| AJ DillonRB | 1.0 | −0.6 | 13% | 6% | 0% | — | 3 car, 10 yd |
| Brevyn Spann-FordTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.0 | 16% | 9% | 3% | 8% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Luke SchoonmakerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 25% | 17% | 3% | 7% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| John Metchie IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:52) 24-M.Sanders left guard to PHI 10 for 1 yard (30-J.Campbell; 94-B.Young). FUMBLES (30-J.Campbell), RECOVERED by PHI-27-Q.Mitchell at PHI 10. 27-Q.Mitchell to PHI 16 for 6 yards (4-D.Prescott).
Q3 4:52 · Cowboys · 1st & 10 at PHI 11 · gained 1 · -5.76 EP · −22.4% win probability
147 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 147 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 88 yards from the DAL 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Cowboys6
Eagles0Cowboys7Eagles0Cowboys7Eagles6Cowboys7Eagles7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Cowboys13Eagles7Cowboys14Eagles7Cowboys14Eagles13Cowboys14Eagles14Cowboys17Eagles14How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Cowboys17Eagles20Cowboys17Eagles21Cowboys20Eagles21Cowboys20Eagles24How the play was built
A man in motion.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cowboys at Eagles, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 21/34 | 188 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 15 | 54 | 3.6 | 2 | +2.9 |
| Miles Sanders | 4 | 53 | 13.3 | 0 | −2.3 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 7 | 13 | 110 | 0 | 39% | +2.5 |
| George Pickens | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 12% | +1.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Murray, Jr. | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Hooker | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damone Clark | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaiir Elam |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 19/23 | 152 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_01_DAL_PHI
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -8.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 44 — under by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Dak Prescott | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Jake Ferguson | 5 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 18% | +0.4 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 6% | +1.1 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 9% | −1.9 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −0.8 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Miles Sanders | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jack Sanborn | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Williams | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Clark | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Solomon Thomas | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Osa Odighizuwa | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DaRon Bland | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 |
| 62 |
| 4.4 |
| 2 |
| +5.5 |
| Saquon Barkley | 18 | 60 | 3.3 | 1 | −1.2 |
| Will Shipley | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 | +1.7 |
| AJ Dillon | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahan Dotson | 3 | 3 | 59 | 0 | 15% | +1.7 |
| Dallas Goedert | 7 | 7 | 44 | 0 | 35% | +2.1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 25% | +1.7 |
| DeVonta Smith | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 15% | +0.7 |
| A.J. Brown | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 5% | +0.1 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Baun | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Adoree' Jackson | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Davis | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cooper DeJean | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nolan Smith | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinyon Mitchell | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jakorian Bennett | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jihaad Campbell | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Andrew Mukuba | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reed Blankenship | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
