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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:57 AM ET · 16 to play
(9:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 85-T.Kraft for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +8.6 for PackersExpected points +3.12 for PackersThe model had Packers 3 points higher than the market did.play 14
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:31GB +9% win prob(9:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 85-T.Kraft for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 9:27GB +9% win prob(9:27) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 87-R.Doubs to DET 17 for 48 yards (4-D.Reed; 6-T.Arnold).
1st · 6:05GB +7% win prob(6:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 11-J.Reed to DET 23 for 26 yards (21-A.Robertson).
2nd · 1:12DET +7% win prob(1:12) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 14-A.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 33-E.Williams at GB 13. 33-E.Williams to GB 13 for no gain (14-A.St. Brown).
1st · 11:15GB +6% win prob(11:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 0-M.Golden pushed ob at DET 31 for 11 yards (31-K.Joseph).
1st · 13:07GB +5% win prob(13:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 13-D.Wicks to DET 46 for 16 yards (6-T.Arnold).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tucker Kraft's 15-yard touchdown catch with 9:31 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:31Tucker Kraft·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan LoveLead never changed again+70–7
1st4:02Brandon McManus·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+30–10
2nd9:30Jake Bates·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.Hatten+33–10
2nd8:39Jayden Reed·17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+73–17
3rd9:43Jake Bates·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.Hatten+36–17
4th4:25Brandon McManus·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+36–27
4th1:00Isaac TeSlaa·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+713–27
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryPackers
Lions1–8Packers
247Total yards267
3.9Yards per play5.8
42%Success rate43%
33%Third-down rate40%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
2Explosive plays5
15First downs12
4Sacks taken0
1Turnovers0
The read
Packers ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.06Lions: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.20Packers: +0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.03Lions: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.43Packers: +0.43 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.26Lions: −0.26 expected points added per play
−0.03Packers: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 64 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Packers’s 46 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Lions 4, Packers 5.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
GB's blitz rate sent, 11.6%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 0.9 points clear of the next team along.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · −7.6 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Packers18.6%
right on their number · +2.3 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NoteGB's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 11.6%, 12.5 points below their season mean of 24.2% and 1.6 times their own 7.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Love pass+9% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 0-M.Golden pushed ob at DET 31 for 11 yards (31-K.Joseph).
Q1 11:15 · Packers · 3rd & 6 at DET 42 · gained 11 · +1.98 EP · +9.0% win probability
142 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 150 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 141 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 145. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 83 yards from the GB 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
150 of 150 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
150
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
45%
Yards
512
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.1180%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.0538%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR17+0.4265%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.1542%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.3160%
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.3820%
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
150 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
150 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Lions0Packers6
Lions0Packers7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Packers 17 to the Lions 15
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 24 to the Lions 27
Lions0Packers10
Field goal7 plays, from the Packers 48 to the Lions 16
The period ended9 plays, from the Lions 10 to the Lions 46
2nd quarter35 plays
Lions3Packers10
Field goal10 plays, from midfield to the Packers 12
Lions3Packers16
Lions3Packers17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Packers 35 to the Lions 17
Intercepted14 plays, from the Lions 29 to the Packers 16
The period ended5 plays, from the Packers 13 to the Packers 22
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter32 plays
Lions6Packers17
Field goal10 plays, from the Lions 32 to the Packers 9
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 24 to the Packers 33
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 21 to the Lions 38
Punt10 plays, from the Packers 15 to the Lions 46
4th quarter46 plays
Punt5 plays
Lions6Packers23
Lions6Packers24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Lions 36 to the Lions 3
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Lions 27 to the Lions 35
Lions6Packers27
Field goal5 plays, from the Lions 27 to the Lions 19
Lions12Packers27
Lions13Packers27
Touchdown18 plays, from the Lions 35 to the Packers 13
The period ended4 plays, from the Lions 49 to the Lions 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Packers -1.5
Closing total
48.5
Lions moneyline
+100
Packers moneyline
-120
Packers closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 40 — under by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 63°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the north-west; overcast.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Lions 7 days · Packers 7 days
Coaches
Dan Campbell vs Matt LaFleur
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 2:24
GB +5% win prob
(2:24) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 1-J.Williams to GB 19 for 11 yards (29-X.McKinney). Penalty on GB-20-J.Bullard, Illegal Contact, declined.
1st · 14:12GB +5% win prob(14:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 87-R.Doubs pushed ob at GB 38 for 20 yards (4-D.Reed). Penalty on DET-4-D.Reed, Illegal Contact, declined.
