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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 7, 2025 · Lambeau Field
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 1
It turned at Q1 9:31, 3rd and 9, on Tucker Kraft — 8.6 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Green Bay Packers 27–13. Biggest swing: Q1 9:31, Packers +8.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:31 · 3rd and 9
Tucker Kraft
Packers
(9:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 85-T.Kraft for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.43 expected points per dropback, against Lions at +0.03 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.20 expected points per snap, against Lions at -0.06 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Packers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Lions at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Lions at 2 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market saw this game the same way — never more than 4 points apart.
(9:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 85-T.Kraft for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tucker Kraft's 15-yard touchdown catch with 9:31 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Tucker Kraft15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan LoveLead never changed again+70–78 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Lionscategory by categoryPackers
Packers ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 64 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Packers’s 46 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Lions 4, Packers 5.
Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
GB's blitz rate sent, 11.6%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 0.9 points clear of the next team along.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Lions-3.9 ptsright on their number · +0.8 vs their -4.8 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 64 snaps
Packers-0.5 ptsright on their number · +3.8 vs their -4.3 pts, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 46 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 84%
Tendencies room →Lions57.8%right on their number · +4.1 vs their 53.7%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 45 early downs
Packers48.6%right on their number · −1.7 vs their 50.3%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 35 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 53%
Tendencies room →Lions14.0%leaned — dropped back clean · −12.0 vs their 25.9%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−1.12× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Packers26.1%right on their number · −0.1 vs their 26.1%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31% to 121%
Fourth Down room →Lions80.0%inside their normal wobble · +14.4 vs their 65.6%, and they swing ±20.6 week to week (+0.70× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Packers16.7%inside their normal wobble · −23.0 vs their 39.7%, and they swing ±27.4 week to week (−0.84× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 61%
Tendencies room →Lions43.5%leaned — sent pressure · +11.7 vs their 31.8%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (+1.02× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Packers11.6%leaned — sat back · −12.5 vs their 24.2%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−1.61× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 39%
Tendencies room →Lions8.7%inside their normal wobble · −7.6 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Packers18.6%right on their number · +2.3 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
GB's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 11.6%, 12.5 points below their season mean of 24.2% and 1.6 times their own 7.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · DET
31/39, 225 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
1.4 expected points added · +11.3% completion over expected
Passing · GB
16/22, 188 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
10.1 expected points added · +13.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Isaac TeSlaa banked 5.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan LoveQB · Starter QB | 15.9 | −0.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/22, 188 yd, 2 TD · 3 car, 4 yd |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB · Committee Back | 15.0 | −4.5 | 66% | 70% | 26% | 0% | 9 car, 19 yd · 10/10, 31 yd |
| Josh JacobsRB · Bell Cow Back | 14.0 | +0.3 | 88% | 87% | 5% | 0% | 19 car, 66 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 4 yd |
| Sam LaPortaTE · Featured Receiver | 13.9 | +0.4 | 91% | 91% | 24% | 27% | 6/9, 79 yd |
| Jayden ReedWR · Featured Receiver | 13.5 | +3.1 | 38% | 52% | 23% | 28% | 3/5, 45 yd, 1 TD |
| Jared GoffQB · Starter QB | 10.9 | −2.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 31/39, 225 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Tucker KraftTE · Featured Receiver | 9.9 | +1.3 | 92% | 96% | 18% | 20% | 1 car, 3 yd · 2/4, 16 yd, 1 TD |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Featured Receiver | 8.8 | −2.6 | 71% | 74% | 18% | 36% | 2/4, 68 yd |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.5 | −2.1 | 94% | 98% | 16% | 32% | 4/6, 45 yd |
| David MontgomeryRB · Committee Back | 8.3 | −2.6 | 37% | 33% | 11% | 2% | 11 car, 25 yd · 4/4, 18 yd |
| Isaac TeSlaaWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.3 | +5.8 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jameson WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.6 | −0.7 | 97% | 100% | 13% | 16% | 1 car, 3 yd · 4/5, 23 yd |
| Dontayvion WicksWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | +1.1 | 46% | 43% | 9% | 11% | 2/2, 30 yd |
| Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | −0.9 | 66% | 77% | 8% | 14% | 2/3, 16 yd |
| Matthew GoldenWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | +0.7 | 48% | 57% | 9% | 4% | 2/2, 16 yd |
| Luke MusgraveTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | 0.0 | 35% | 22% | 5% | 0% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Chris BrooksRB | 1.3 | −0.8 | 19% | 26% | 5% | 1% | 1 car, 1 yd · 1/1, 2 yd |
| John FitzPatrickTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.2 | 31% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Savion WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Emanuel WilsonRB | 0.4 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jacob SaylorsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Craig ReynoldsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Bo MeltonWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 0-M.Golden pushed ob at DET 31 for 11 yards (31-K.Joseph).
Q1 11:15 · Packers · 3rd & 6 at DET 42 · gained 11 · +1.98 EP · +9.0% win probability
142 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 150 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 141 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 145. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 83 yards from the GB 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
150 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
150 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Lions0
Packers6Lions0Packers7Lions0Packers10Lions3Packers10Lions3Packers16Lions3Packers17Lions6Packers17Lions6Packers23Lions6Packers24Lions6Packers27Lions12Packers27Lions13Packers27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Lions at Packers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 31/39 | 225 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +1.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 11 | 25 | 2.3 | 0 | −2.5 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 | −2.7 |
| Jameson Williams |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam LaPorta | 6 | 9 | 79 | 0 | 24% | +2.2 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Campbell | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Barnes | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrion Arnold |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 16/22 | 188 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +10.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_01_DET_GB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Packers closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 40 — under by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 3.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.2 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| 16% |
| +0.6 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 10 | 10 | 31 | 0 | 26% | −1.3 |
| Jameson Williams | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 13% | +3.5 |
| David Montgomery | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 11% | +0.0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 8% | +0.9 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 1 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 3% | +4.3 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Brian Branch | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Anzalone | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Reed | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amik Robertson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Davenport | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyleik Williams | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 19 | 66 | 3.5 | 1 | −0.4 |
| Jordan Love | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Tucker Kraft | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Chris Brooks | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 2 | 4 | 68 | 0 | 18% | +3.0 |
| Jayden Reed | 3 | 5 | 45 | 1 | 23% | +2.7 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 | 9% | +3.4 |
| Tucker Kraft | 2 | 4 | 16 | 1 | 18% | +1.0 |
| Matthew Golden | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 9% | +2.1 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5% | −0.2 |
| Luke Musgrave | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5% | −0.3 |
| Chris Brooks | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| John FitzPatrick | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5% | −0.6 |
| Savion Williams | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin Cooper | 7 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Bullard | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quay Walker | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rashan Gary | 3 | 4 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Keisean Nixon | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier McKinney | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Colby Wooden | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah McDuffie | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Niemann | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lukas Van Ness | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
