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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:56 AM ET · 16 to play
Los Angeles Rams 14, Texans 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:51, 1st and 10, on Dare Ogunbowale — 30.5 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:51 · 1st and 10
Dare Ogunbowale
Rams
(1:51) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale to LA 18 for 7 yards (53-N.Landman). FUMBLES (53-N.Landman), RECOVERED by LA-55-B.Fiske at LA 24.
Dome
Rams closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Los Angeles Rams 14–9. Biggest swing: Q4 1:51, Rams +30.5% win probability on one snap.
30.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kyren WilliamsRamsQ2 0:57(:57) 23-K.Williams left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
15.2pts
Colby ParkinsonTexansQ4 4:17(4:17) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Parkinson (0-A.Al-Shaair). Houston challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 84-C.Parkinson to HOU 12 for no gain (0-A.Al-Shaair). FUMBLES (0-A.Al-Shaair), touched at HOU 19, RECOVERED by HOU-55-D.Hunter at HOU 19.
13.0pts
What separated them
Red zone
Rams won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Texans at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Rams won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Texans at 2 of 9 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Rams won this one — 1 giveaway, against Texans at 2 giveaways.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Texans151 of 160 plays carry both curves
(1:51) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale to LA 18 for 7 yards (53-N.Landman). FUMBLES (53-N.Landman), RECOVERED by LA-55-B.Fiske at LA 24.
Swing +30.5 for RamsExpected points +4.95 for RamsThe model had Texans 4 points higher than the market did.play 151
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:51HOU +31% win prob(1:51) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale to LA 18 for 7 yards (53-N.Landman). FUMBLES (53-N.Landman), RECOVERED by LA-55-B.Fiske at LA 24.
2nd · 0:57LA +15% win prob(:57) 23-K.Williams left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 4:17HOU +13% win prob(4:17) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Parkinson (0-A.Al-Shaair). Houston challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 84-C.Parkinson to HOU 12 for no gain (0-A.Al-Shaair). FUMBLES (0-A.Al-Shaair), touched at HOU 19, RECOVERED by HOU-55-D.Hunter at HOU 19.
2nd · 11:22LA +11% win prob(11:22) 6-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to LA 25, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
4th · 2:04LA +10% win prob(2:04) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to 14-J.Noel (26-K.Kinchens). PENALTY on LA-91-K.Turner, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 44 - No Play.
3rd · 13:17LA +9% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Davis Allen's 13-yard touchdown catch with 12:33 left in the 3rd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st1:20Ka'imi Fairbairn·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap A.Brinkman+33–0
2nd4:52Ka'imi Fairbairn·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap A.Brinkman+36–0
2nd0:03Ka'imi Fairbairn·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap A.Brinkman+39–7
3rd12:33Davis Allen·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew StaffordLead never changed again+79–14
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryRams
Texans0–7Rams
265Total yards298
4.6Yards per play5.4
37%Success rate42%
22%Third-down rate54%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays5
15First downs16
3Sacks taken3
2Turnovers1
The read
Rams ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.13Texans: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.04Rams: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.14Texans: −0.14 expected points added per play
+0.06Rams: +0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Texans: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.18Rams: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 57 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Rams’s 55 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Texans 1, Rams 3.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.7 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.71× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Rams20.6%
right on their number · +2.7 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteHOU's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 34.4%, 12.5 points above their season mean of 21.9% and 1.3 times their own 9.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
75Laken TomlinsonG · Every snap100%63 snaps
71Tytus HowardT · Every snap100%63 snaps
79Aireontae ErseryT · Every snap100%63 snaps
7C.J. StroudQB · Every snap100%63 snaps
74Cam RobinsonT · Full-time94%59 snaps
12Nico CollinsWR · Full-time84%53 snaps
60Jake AndrewsC · Heavy rotation71%45 snaps
19Xavier HutchinsonWR · Heavy rotation68%43 snaps
87Cade StoverTE · Heavy rotation57%36 snaps
84Justin WatsonWR · Heavy rotation56%35 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Heavy rotation54%34 snaps
21Nick ChubbRB · Heavy rotation51%32 snaps
81Jayden HigginsWR · Rotational43%27 snaps
54Jarrett PattersonC · Rotational29%18 snaps
33Dare OgunbowaleRB · Rotational27%17 snaps
14Jaylin NoelWR · Rotational27%17 snaps
43Jakob JohnsonFB · Situational11%7 snaps
31Dameon PierceRB · Situational11%7 snaps
27Woody MarksRB · Situational11%7 snaps
57Blake FisherT · Situational6%4 snaps
Inactive · 6
Tommy TogiaiDTEd IngramGGraham MertzQBBritish BrooksRBChristian KirkWRBraxton BerriosWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Davis MillsQB
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
79Rob HavensteinT · Every snap100%60 snaps
77Alaric JacksonT · Every snap100%60 snaps
65Coleman SheltonC · Every snap100%60 snaps
9Matthew StaffordQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
17Davante AdamsWR · Full-time90%54 snaps
23Kyren WilliamsRB · Full-time82%49 snaps
69Kevin DotsonG · Heavy rotation75%45 snaps
50Beaux LimmerC · Heavy rotation73%44 snaps
12Puka NacuaWR · Heavy rotation63%38 snaps
89Tyler HigbeeTE · Heavy rotation58%35 snaps
73Steve AvilaG · Heavy rotation52%31 snaps
88Jordan WhittingtonWR · Heavy rotation50%30 snaps
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Stroud pass−35% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:51) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale to LA 18 for 7 yards (53-N.Landman). FUMBLES (53-N.Landman), RECOVERED by LA-55-B.Fiske at LA 24.
Q4 1:51 · Texans · 1st & 10 at LA 25 · gained 1 · -4.95 EP · −35.1% win probability
149 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 160 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 155. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 68 yards from the LA 32 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
160 of 160 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
160
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
37%
Yards
561
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.1959%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.0363%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23-0.0452%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.4040%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.2720%
Texans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt7 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Rams 29 to the Texans 46
Texans3Rams0
Field goal13 plays, from the Texans 5 to the Rams 33
The period ended5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 28
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 48 to the Texans 40
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Texans 27
Punt4 plays
Texans6Rams0
Field goal10 plays, from the Rams 46 to the Rams 15
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Texans6Rams6
Texans6Rams7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Rams 35 to the Texans 1
Texans9Rams7
Field goal9 plays, from the Texans 23 to the Rams 35
3rd quarter35 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Texans9Rams13
Texans9Rams14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Rams 32 to the Texans 13
Intercepted9 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Texans 49
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 41 to the Rams 47
Punt9 plays, from the Texans 24 to the Rams 48
The period ended5 plays, from the Rams 13 to the Rams 32
4th quarter42 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Rams 37 to the Texans 33
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 5 to the Texans 26
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Rams 34 to the Texans 12
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.8 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Texans 19 to the Rams 25
The period ended9 plays, from the Rams 24 to midfield
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
