2025 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 7, 2025 · SoFi Stadium

Houston Texans

Los Angeles RamsWinner

LA -3.5 ✓U 43.5 ✓DomeRams closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 5.

Los Angeles Rams 14–9. Biggest swing: Q4 1:51, HOU +31% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:51HOU 9 — LA 14HOU ball · 1st & 10LA 64%

(1:51) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale to LA 18 for 7 yards (53-N.Landman). FUMBLES (53-N.Landman), RECOVERED by LA-55-B.Fiske at LA 24.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:51HOU +31% win prob(1:51) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale to LA 18 for 7 yards (53-N.Landman). FUMBLES (53-N.Landman), RECOVERED by LA-55-B.Fiske at LA 24.
Q2 · 0:57LA +15% win prob(:57) 23-K.Williams left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 4:17HOU +13% win prob(4:17) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Parkinson (0-A.Al-Shaair). Houston challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 84-C.Parkinson to HOU 12 for no gain (0-A.Al-Shaair). FUMBLES (0-A.Al-Shaair), touched at HOU 19, RECOVERED by HOU-55-D.Hunter at HOU 19.
Q2 · 11:22LA +11% win prob(11:22) 6-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to LA 25, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 1:20HOU Field goal
(1:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: HOU 3 — LA 0
Q2 · 4:52HOU Field goal
(4:52) 15-K.Fairbairn 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: HOU 6 — LA 0
Q2 · 0:57LA Touchdown
(:57) 23-K.Williams left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 6 — LA 7
Q2 · 0:03HOU Field goal
(:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: HOU 9 — LA 7
Q3 · 12:33LA Touchdown
(12:33) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 87-D.Allen for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 9 — LA 14

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Rams
Offensive plays	57	55
Total yards	265	298 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6	5.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.13	-0.04 (edge)
Success rate	37%	42% (edge)
Dropback rate	60%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.14	0.06 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.12 (edge)	-0.18
Third downs	2/9	7/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	15	16 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

21/29, 245 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

6.1 expected points added · +5.4% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

19/27, 188 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-4.1 expected points added · -1.0% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Kyren WilliamsRB

18 att, 66 yds, 1 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Nick ChubbRB

13 att, 60 yds, 0 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Puka NacuaWR

10/11 for 130 yds, 0 TD

39% of team targets · 9.5 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Davante AdamsWR

4/8 for 51 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 3.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 20	5	10	2:11	Punt
2	LA	LA 29	10	25	4:33	Punt
3	HOU	HOU 5	13	62	7:01	Field goal +3
4	LA	LA 25	8	20	3:03	Punt
5	HOU	HOU 20	4	1	1:59	Punt
6	LA	LA 25	4	0	1:01	Punt
7	HOU	LA 46	10	19	5:25	Field goal +3
8	LA	LA 35	11	65	3:54	Touchdown +7
9	HOU	HOU 23	6	42	0:53	Field goal +3
10	LA	LA 32	7	63	2:32	Touchdown +7
11	HOU	HOU 20	7	27	4:05	Interception
12	LA	LA 41	4	-1	1:48	Punt
13	HOU	HOU 24	8	36	4:35	Punt
14	LA	LA 13	9	43	4:55	Punt
15	HOU	HOU 5	6	21	2:50	Punt
16	LA	LA 34	9	47	5:06	Fumble
17	HOU	HOU 19	8	47	2:26	Fumble
18	LA	LA 24	5	36	1:43	End of game

5 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 65 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
C.J. Stroud	19/27	188	0	1	3	-4.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Nick Chubb	13	60	4.6	-0.5
C.J. Stroud	5	32	6.4	5.6
Dare Ogunbowale	2	9	4.5	-1.1
Xavier Hutchinson	1	5	5.0	0.4
Dameon Pierce	3	5	1.7	-1.9
Woody Marks	3	3	1.0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jayden Higgins	2	3	32	11%	-2.7
Xavier Hutchinson	2	2	30	7%	1.5
Dalton Schultz	3	5	28	19%	1.6
Justin Watson	2	2	27	7%	2.8
Nico Collins	3	5	25	19%	0.4
Cade Stover	4	4	22	15%	0.2
Dare Ogunbowale	2	2	17	7%	-4.1
Jaylin Noel	1	2	7	7%	-0.7
Nick Chubb	0	1	0	4%	-0.9
Dameon Pierce	0	1	0	4%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kamari Lassiter	4	4	0.0	0
Azeez Al-Shaair	3	4	0.0	0
Henry To'oTo'o	2	4	1.0	1
Jalen Pitre	4	1	0.0	0
Derek Stingley Jr.	4	1	0.0	0
C.J. Gardner-Johnson	2	2	0.0	0
Danielle Hunter	1	2	0.0	0
Foley Fatukasi	2	1	1.0	0
Will Anderson Jr.	3	0	1.0	0
Calen Bullock	2	0	0.0	0

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	21/29	245	1	0	3	6.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kyren Williams	18	66	3.7	1	0.7
Jordan Whittington	1	5	5.0	0	0.5
Blake Corum	1	2	2.0	0	-0.5
Puka Nacua	1	1	1.0	0	-0.9
Matthew Stafford	4	-2	-0.5	0	-6.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Puka Nacua	10	11	130	0	39%	9.5
Davante Adams	4	8	51	0	29%	3.8
Xavier Smith	1	1	36	0	4%	2.7
Blake Corum	1	1	14	0	4%	0.3
Davis Allen	1	2	13	1	7%	0.7
Tutu Atwell	1	1	4	0	4%	-0.2
Kyren Williams	1	2	3	0	7%	-1.1
Colby Parkinson	2	2	-6	0	7%	-6.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Nate Landman	6	4	0.0	0
Byron Young	5	4	1.0	0
Kam Curl	7	2	0.0	0
Tyler Davis	1	3	1.0	0
Omar Speights	3	1	0.0	0
Kamren Kinchens	2	2	0.0	1
Emmanuel Forbes	2	1	0.0	0
Kobie Turner	1	2	0.0	0
Braden Fiske	1	2	0.0	0
Jared Verse	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -3.5
Closing total: 43.5
HOU moneyline: +140
LA moneyline: -166

Rams closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 5.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 23 — under by 20.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: HOU 7 days · LA 7 days
Coaches: DeMeco Ryans vs Sean McVay