2025 Week 1 · Fri, Sep 5, 2025 · SoFi Stadium

Kansas City Chiefs

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

KC -3 upsetO 47.5 ✓DomeChiefs closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Los Angeles Chargers 27–21. Biggest swing: Q4 12:10, LAC +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 12:10KC 18 — LAC 20KC ball · 1st & 10LAC 71%

(12:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 12:10LAC +16% win prob(12:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 3:24LAC +14% win prob(3:24) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 5-M.Brown to LAC 9 for 49 yards (2-E.Molden) [52-K.Mack].
Q2 · 0:03LAC +13% win prob(:03) 7-H.Butker 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Q3 · 0:36LAC +11% win prob(:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 13-K.Allen for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: KC-23-D.Tranquill has returned to the game.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:16LAC Touchdown
(9:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 1-Q.Johnston for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on KC-56-G.Karlaftis, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 0 — LAC 7
Q2 · 13:50LAC Field goal
(13:50) 11-C.Dicker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott. Penalty on KC-2-J.Williams, Defensive Offside, declined.
Score after this play: KC 0 — LAC 10
Q2 · 4:53KC Field goal
(4:53) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Score after this play: KC 3 — LAC 10
Q2 · 0:49LAC Field goal
(:49) 11-C.Dicker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Score after this play: KC 3 — LAC 13
Q2 · 0:03KC Field goal
(:03) 7-H.Butker 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Score after this play: KC 6 — LAC 13
Q3 · 8:11KC Touchdown
(8:11) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: KC 12 — LAC 13
Q3 · 0:36LAC Touchdown
(:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 13-K.Allen for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: KC-23-D.Tranquill has returned to the game. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 12 — LAC 20
Q4 · 12:10KC Touchdown
(12:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: KC 18 — LAC 20
Q4 · 5:09LAC Touchdown
(5:09) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 1-Q.Johnston for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on KC-21-J.Hicks, Face Mask, 8 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 18 — LAC 27
Q4 · 2:37KC Field goal
(2:37) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Score after this play: KC 21 — LAC 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Chargers
Offensive plays	58	59
Total yards	347	398 (edge)
Yards per play	6.0	6.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.22	0.32 (edge)
Success rate	47%	58% (edge)
Dropback rate	81%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23	0.46 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.15 (edge)	-0.00
Third downs	5/14	7/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	18	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0	0

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs 0.22.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

25/34, 318 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

17.6 expected points added · +5.8% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

24/39, 258 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

3.4 expected points added · -6.0% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

6 att, 57 yds, 1 TD

7.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Omarion HamptonRB

15 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Marquise BrownWR

10/16 for 99 yds, 0 TD

42% of team targets · 3.1 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Quentin JohnstonWR

5/7 for 79 yds, 2 TD

21% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 24	5	4	1:34	Punt
2	LAC	LAC 32	8	63	4:15	Touchdown +7
3	KC	KC 35	8	28	3:10	Punt
4	LAC	LAC 2	4	8	1:33	Punt
5	KC	KC 42	4	1	1:01	Punt
6	LAC	LAC 21	9	88	4:40	Field goal +3
7	KC	KC 34	17	59	8:57	Field goal +3
8	LAC	LAC 35	13	52	4:05	Field goal +3
9	KC	KC 29	6	41	0:45	Field goal +3
10	LAC	LAC 28	5	1	1:02	Punt
11	KC	KC 20	12	86	5:53	Touchdown +6
12	LAC	LAC 26	14	79	7:33	Touchdown +7
13	KC	KC 35	9	65	3:28	Touchdown +6
14	LAC	LAC 26	13	74	7:02	Touchdown +7
15	KC	KC 28	11	63	2:28	Field goal +3
16	LAC	LAC 20	8	33	2:34	End of game

10 of 16 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 88 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	24/39	258	1	0	2	3.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	6	57	9.5	1	7.2
Isiah Pacheco	5	25	5.0	0	0.2
Kareem Hunt	5	16	3.2	0	2.3
Xavier Worthy	1	0	0.0	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marquise Brown	10	16	99	0	42%	3.1
JuJu Smith-Schuster	5	5	55	0	13%	4.6
Travis Kelce	2	4	47	1	11%	3.0
Tyquan Thornton	2	4	41	0	11%	-1.0
Kareem Hunt	2	3	10	0	8%	0.4
Isiah Pacheco	2	3	3	0	8%	-2.0
Noah Gray	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.3
Jason Brownlee	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7
Xavier Worthy	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Chamarri Conner	7	3	0.0	0
Nick Bolton	6	2	0.0	0
Jaylen Watson	5	1	0.0	1
Trent McDuffie	4	1	0.0	1
Drue Tranquill	4	1	2.0	0
Jaden Hicks	3	1	0.0	0
Bryan Cook	2	1	0.0	0
Charles Omenihu	2	0	0.0	0
George Karlaftis	1	1	1.0	0
Nohl Williams	1	1	0.0	0

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	25/34	318	3	0	3	17.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Omarion Hampton	15	48	3.2	-0.5
Justin Herbert	7	32	4.6	-0.2
Najee Harris	1	5	5.0	0.1
Derius Davis	1	3	3.0	-0.3
Tyler Conklin	1	2	2.0	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Quentin Johnston	5	7	79	2	21%	5.6
Ladd McConkey	6	9	74	0	26%	5.2
Keenan Allen	7	10	68	1	29%	6.3
Tyler Conklin	2	2	50	0	6%	2.7
Will Dissly	1	1	18	0	3%	1.1
Omarion Hampton	2	2	13	0	6%	0.7
Tre Harris	1	1	11	0	3%	0.7
Najee Harris	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.1
KeAndre Lambert-Smith	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Alohi Gilman	4	5	0.0	0
Daiyan Henley	3	5	1.0	0
Derwin James	5	2	0.0	0
Troy Dye	3	2	0.0	0
Caleb Murphy	2	2	0.0	0
Elijah Molden	4	0	0.0	0
Cam Hart	4	0	0.0	0
Tarheeb Still	3	0	0.0	0
Donte Jackson	3	0	0.0	1
Ja'Sir Taylor	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -3
Closing total: 47.5
KC moneyline: -175
LAC moneyline: +145

Chiefs closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 48 — over by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: KC 7 days · LAC 7 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Jim Harbaugh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.