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Kansas City Chiefs 21 at Los Angeles Chargers 27. Final.
Chiefs -3 upset
The verdict · 2025 Week 1
Los Angeles Chargers 27, Chiefs 21 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 12:10, 1st and 10, on Travis Kelce — 16.0 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 12:10 · 1st and 10
Travis Kelce
Chiefs
(12:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 47.5 ✓
Dome
Chiefs closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Los Angeles Chargers 27–21. Biggest swing: Q4 12:10, Chiefs +16.0% win probability on one snap.
16.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Harrison ButkerChiefsQ2 0:03(:03) 7-H.Butker 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
13.1pts
Marquise BrownChiefsQ4 3:24(3:24) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 5-M.Brown to LAC 9 for 49 yards (2-E.Molden) [52-K.Mack].
14.4pts
What separated them
Third down
Chargers won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Chiefs at 5 of 14 on third down.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chargers won this one — 58% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chiefs at 47% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chargers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Chiefs at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Chargers at 6 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Chiefs159 of 169 plays carry both curves
(12:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −16.0 for ChargersExpected points −3.46 for ChargersThe model had Chargers 7 points higher than the market did.play 132
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 12:10LAC +16% win prob(12:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:24LAC +14% win prob(3:24) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 5-M.Brown to LAC 9 for 49 yards (2-E.Molden) [52-K.Mack].
2nd · 0:03LAC +13% win prob(:03) 7-H.Butker 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
3rd · 0:36LAC +11% win prob(:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 13-K.Allen for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: KC-23-D.Tranquill has returned to the game.
4th · 5:09LAC +9% win prob(5:09) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 1-Q.Johnston for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on KC-21-J.Hicks, Face Mask, 8 yards, enforced between downs.
2nd · 8:45LAC +8% win prob(8:45) 77-J.Moore reported in as eligible. 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 29-K.Hunt pushed ob at LAC 26 for 6 yards (0-D.Henley).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Quentin Johnston's 5-yard touchdown catch with 9:16 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
4th2:37Harrison Butker·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+321–27
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryChargers
Chiefs2–6Chargers
347Total yards398
6.0Yards per play6.7
47%Success rate58%
36%Third-down rate58%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays6
18First downs22
2Sacks taken3
0Turnovers0
The read
Chargers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.46 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.22Chiefs: +0.22 expected points added per play
+0.32Chargers: +0.32 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.23Chiefs: +0.23 expected points added per play
+0.46Chargers: +0.46 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.15Chiefs: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.00Chargers: −0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 58 snaps at a 81% dropback rate against Chargers’s 59 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 4, Chargers 4.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs 0.22.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
KC's early-down pass rate, 77.5%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 0.1 points clear of the next team along.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
40 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
LAC's pass rate over expected, +15.2 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 4.3 points clear of the next team along.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 23 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.3 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−1.27× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Chargers17.0%
right on their number · +1.9 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
NoteKC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 77.5%, 15.2 points above their season mean of 62.3% and 2.2 times their own 7.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes pass+14% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(12:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 12:10 · Chiefs · 1st & 10 at LAC 37 · gained 37 · +3.46 EP · +13.5% win probability
157 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 80 yards from the KC 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
+0.16
Success rate
49%
Yards
741
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.2676%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.3069%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.2475%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.1950%
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR5+0.2580%
Chargers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR5+0.2480%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 24 to the Chiefs 28
Chiefs0Chargers6
Chiefs0Chargers7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chargers 32 to the Chiefs 5
Punt10 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Chargers 42
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 2 to the Chargers 10
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 42 to the Chiefs 43
The period ended8 plays, from the Chargers 21 to the Chiefs 15
2nd quarter48 plays
Chiefs0Chargers10
Field goal4 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Chiefs 21
Chiefs3Chargers10
Field goal19 plays, from the Chiefs 34 to the Chargers 9
Chiefs3Chargers13
Field goal16 plays, from the Chargers 35 to the Chiefs 18
Chiefs6Chargers13
Field goal8 plays, from the Chiefs 29 to the Chargers 33
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 28 to the Chargers 29
Chiefs12Chargers13
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Chargers 11
Chiefs12Chargers19
Chiefs12Chargers20
Touchdown15 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Chiefs 11
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter43 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Chiefs18Chargers20
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chiefs 40 to the Chargers 37
Chiefs18Chargers26
Chiefs18Chargers27
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Chiefs 23
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.5 seconds
Chiefs21Chargers27
Field goal11 plays, from the Chiefs 28 to the Chargers 9
The period ended12 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Chiefs 47
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
