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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 1 · Fri, Sep 5, 2025 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 1
It turned at Q4 12:10, 1st and 10, on Travis Kelce — 16.0 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
Los Angeles Chargers 27–21. Biggest swing: Q4 12:10, Chiefs +16.0% win probability on one snap.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 12:10 · 1st and 10
Travis Kelce
Chiefs
(12:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Chargers won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Chiefs at 5 of 14 on third down.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chargers won this one — 58% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chiefs at 47% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chargers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Chiefs at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Chargers at 6 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 11.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
(12:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Quentin Johnston's 5-yard touchdown catch with 9:16 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Quentin Johnston5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Justin HerbertLead never changed again+70–7
Travis Kelce37-yd TD catch37-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomes · two-point no good+618–2010 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chiefscategory by categoryChargers
Chargers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.46 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 58 snaps at a 81% dropback rate against Chargers’s 59 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 4, Chargers 4.
Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs 0.22.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
KC's early-down pass rate, 77.5%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 0.1 points clear of the next team along.
40 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points. · +2.2σ from their own normal
LAC's pass rate over expected, +15.2 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 4.3 points clear of the next team along.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 23 pts
Over Expected room →Chiefs11.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · +7.1 vs their 3.8 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.94× that swing) · 57 snaps
Chargers15.2 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +14.4 vs their 0.8 pts, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+1.81× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 27% to 90%
Tendencies room →Chiefs77.5%off script — passed early · +15.2 vs their 62.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+2.17× that swing) · 40 early downs
Chargers69.6%inside their normal wobble · +11.0 vs their 58.6%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+0.89× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 44%
Tendencies room →Chiefs12.8%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Chargers26.8%right on their number · +3.4 vs their 23.4%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31% to 100%
Fourth Down room →Chiefs—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 56.0%.
Chargers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 21.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14% to 72%
Tendencies room →Chiefs39.0%right on their number · −0.6 vs their 39.7%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Chargers23.4%right on their number · −2.1 vs their 25.5%, and they swing ±15.1 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 34%
Tendencies room →Chiefs9.8%leaned — stayed blocked · −7.3 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−1.27× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Chargers17.0%right on their number · +1.9 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
KC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 77.5%, 15.2 points above their season mean of 62.3% and 2.2 times their own 7.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · LAC
25/34, 318 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
17.6 expected points added · +5.8% completion over expected
Passing · KC
24/39, 258 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
3.4 expected points added · -6.0% completion over expected
Receiving · LAC
5/7 for 79 yds, 2 TD
21% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Quentin Johnston banked 7.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 27.9 | +5.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/34, 318 yd, 3 TD · 7 car, 32 yd |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 26.0 | +4.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/39, 258 yd, 1 TD · 6 car, 57 yd, 1 TD |
| Quentin JohnstonWR · Featured Receiver | 24.9 | +7.8 | 82% | 88% | 21% | 25% | 5/7, 79 yd, 2 TD |
| Marquise BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.9 | −6.4 | 93% | 96% | 42% | 37% | 10/16, 99 yd |
| Keenan AllenWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.8 | +1.9 | 62% | 78% | 29% | 26% | 7/10, 68 yd, 1 TD |
| Ladd McConkeyWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.4 | −3.5 | 85% | 93% | 26% | 28% | 6/9, 74 yd |
| Travis KelceTE · Rotational Receiver | 12.7 | +6.0 | 84% | 79% | 11% | 9% | 2/4, 47 yd, 1 TD |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.5 | +3.1 | 80% | 79% | 13% | 11% | 5/5, 55 yd |
| Omarion HamptonRB · Bell Cow Back | 8.1 | −3.5 | 80% | 73% | 6% | 0% | 15 car, 48 yd · 2/2, 13 yd |
| Tyler ConklinTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | +2.8 | 43% | 29% | 6% | 8% | 1 car, 2 yd · 2/2, 50 yd |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.1 | −1.1 | 72% | 79% | 11% | 42% | 2/4, 41 yd |
| Isiah PachecoRB | 4.8 | −1.8 | 51% | 48% | 8% | 0% | 5 car, 25 yd · 2/3, 3 yd |
| Kareem HuntRB | 4.6 | −1.5 | 38% | 38% | 8% | 0% | 5 car, 16 yd · 2/3, 10 yd |
| Will DisslyTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | +0.9 | 57% | 51% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 18 yd |
| Tre HarrisWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.6 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Najee HarrisRB | 2.0 | −0.2 | 18% | 24% | 3% | 1% | 1 car, 5 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −1.3 | 41% | 40% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Derius DavisWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.3 | −0.4 | 12% | 7% | 0% | — | 1 car, 3 yd |
| Xavier WorthyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jason BrownleeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.5 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Nikko RemigioWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Brashard SmithRB | 0.0 | — | 13% | 13% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Hassan HaskinsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.9 | 22% | 17% | 3% | 9% | 0/1, 0 yd |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 12:10 · Chiefs · 1st & 10 at LAC 37 · gained 37 · +3.46 EP · +13.5% win probability
157 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 169 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 80 yards from the KC 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Chiefs0
Chargers6Chiefs0Chargers7Chiefs0Chargers10Chiefs3Chargers10Chiefs3Chargers13Chiefs6Chargers13Chiefs12Chargers13Chiefs12Chargers19Chiefs12Chargers20How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Chiefs18Chargers20Chiefs18Chargers26Chiefs18Chargers27How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Chiefs21Chargers27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chiefs at Chargers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 24/39 | 258 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +3.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 6 | 57 | 9.5 | 1 | +7.2 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Kareem Hunt |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 10 | 16 | 99 | 0 | 42% | +3.1 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 5 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chamarri Conner | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bolton | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Watson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 25/34 | 318 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +17.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_01_KC_LAC
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 48 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 5 |
| 16 |
| 3.2 |
| 0 |
| +2.3 |
| Xavier Worthy | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| 13% |
| +4.6 |
| Travis Kelce | 2 | 4 | 47 | 1 | 11% | +3.0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 2 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 11% | −1.0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 8% | +0.4 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8% | −2.0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Jason Brownlee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| Xavier Worthy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.6 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Trent McDuffie | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Drue Tranquill | 4 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaden Hicks | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Cook | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Karlaftis | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leo Chenal | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nohl Williams | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Omarion Hampton | 15 | 48 | 3.2 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Justin Herbert | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Najee Harris | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Johnston | 5 | 7 | 79 | 2 | 21% | +5.6 |
| Ladd McConkey | 6 | 9 | 74 | 0 | 26% | +5.2 |
| Keenan Allen | 7 | 10 | 68 | 1 | 29% | +6.3 |
| Tyler Conklin | 2 | 2 | 50 | 0 | 6% | +2.7 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 3% | +1.1 |
| Omarion Hampton | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 6% | +0.7 |
| Tre Harris | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +0.7 |
| Najee Harris | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alohi Gilman | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daiyan Henley | 3 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derwin James | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Dye | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Molden | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Caleb Murphy | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Hart | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tarheeb Still | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donte Jackson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Benjamin St-Juste | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
