2025 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 7, 2025 · Gillette Stadium

Las Vegas RaidersWinner

New England Patriots

NE -2.5 upsetU 44.5 ✓Patriots closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Las Vegas Raiders 20–13. Biggest swing: Q2 1:36, NE +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 1:36LV 7 — NE 10LV ball · 4th & 31NE 79%

(1:36) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to NE 29, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 25-M.Jones to NE 39 for 10 yards (49-C.Snowden; 50-J.Bobenmoyer). PENALTY on NE-51-J.Gibbens, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 36.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 1:36NE +12% win prob(1:36) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to NE 29, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 25-M.Jones to NE 39 for 10 yards (49-C.Snowden; 50-J.Bobenmoyer). PENALTY on NE-51-J.Gibbens, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 36.
Q2 · 4:05NE +11% win prob(4:05) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 13-M.Hollins. PENALTY on LV-36-K.Kelly, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at LV 47 - No Play.
Q3 · 11:34NE +10% win prob(11:34) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to NE 29 for 19 yards (28-A.Austin, 23-K.Dugger). PENALTY on NE-21-J.Hawkins, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NE 29.
Q1 · 3:34NE +10% win prob(3:34) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 9-K.Boutte to LV 22 for 24 yards (45-D.White; 22-E.Stokes). NE-9-K.Boutte was injured during the play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 12:23LV Touchdown
(12:23) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 1-T.Tucker for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 7 — NE 0
Q1 · 1:06NE Touchdown
(1:06) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 3-D.Douglas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 7 — NE 7
Q2 · 2:00NE Field goal
(2:00) 36-A.Borregales 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: LV 7 — NE 10
Q3 · 9:44LV Touchdown
(9:44) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 14 — NE 10
Q3 · 0:56LV Field goal
(:56) 8-D.Carlson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: LV 17 — NE 10
Q4 · 6:50LV Field goal
(6:50) 8-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: LV 20 — NE 10
Q4 · 0:22NE Field goal
(:22) 36-A.Borregales 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: LV 20 — NE 13

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Raiders	Patriots
Offensive plays	60	68
Total yards	390 (edge)	336
Yards per play	6.5 (edge)	4.9
Expected points added / play	0.11 (edge)	-0.07
Success rate	43% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	63%	78%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.38 (edge)	-0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.34	-0.23 (edge)
Third downs	5/13 (edge)	4/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	4	4
Turnovers	1	1

Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Geno SmithQB

24/34, 362 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

14.9 expected points added · +9.6% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Drake MayeQB

30/46, 287 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-0.3 expected points added · +2.4% completion over expected

Rushing · LV

Ashton JeantyRB

19 att, 38 yds, 1 TD

-5.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

TreVeyon HendersonRB

5 att, 27 yds, 0 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Brock BowersTE

5/8 for 103 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 1.1 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Kayshon BoutteWR

6/8 for 103 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 8.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LV	LV 34	8	71	2:43	Touchdown +7
2	NE	NE 47	5	2	1:43	Punt
3	LV	LV 5	10	55	4:12	Interception
4	NE	NE 18	13	77	5:20	Touchdown +7
5	LV	LV 31	5	-3	1:53	Punt
6	NE	NE 26	11	67	5:02	Missed field goal
7	LV	LV 30	4	4	1:25	Punt
8	NE	NE 27	9	44	5:45	Field goal +3
9	LV	LV 36	5	-6	0:32	Punt
10	NE	NE 26	4	9	0:46	Punt
11	LV	LV 26	6	34	0:39	Missed field goal
12	NE	NE 12	7	36	2:46	Interception
13	LV	LV 29	6	56	2:35	Touchdown +7
14	NE	NE 40	5	-1	0:59	Punt
15	LV	LV 20	5	20	2:15	Punt
16	NE	NE 25	4	3	1:58	Punt
17	LV	LV 16	6	62	3:35	Field goal +3
18	NE	NE 31	8	24	2:19	Punt
19	LV	LV 12	12	66	6:47	Field goal +3
20	NE	NE 28	7	21	1:58	Punt
21	LV	LV 35	7	31	3:00	Punt
22	NE	NE 20	10	54	1:29	Field goal +3
23	LV	LV 48	2	0	0:19	End of game

7 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 77 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Geno Smith	24/34	362	1	1	4	14.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ashton Jeanty	19	38	2.0	1	-5.8
Geno Smith	2	10	5.0	0	0.1
Zamir White	3	8	2.7	0	-1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brock Bowers	5	8	103	0	24%	1.1
Jakobi Meyers	8	10	97	0	30%	5.2
Tre Tucker	2	3	54	1	9%	5.2
Dont'e Thornton Jr.	2	4	45	0	12%	2.5
Michael Mayer	4	4	38	0	12%	5.0
Jack Bech	1	1	23	0	3%	3.0
Ashton Jeanty	2	2	2	0	6%	-1.2
Alex Bachman	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Devin White	7	3	0.0	0	0
Kyu Blu Kelly	7	2	0.0	0	1
Germaine Pratt	1	7	0.0	0	0
Isaiah Pola-Mao	5	2	0.0	1	1
Eric Stokes	3	2	0.0	0	0
Jeremy Chinn	3	1	0.0	0	0
Tyree Wilson	2	1	1.0	0	0
Thomas Booker	1	2	0.0	0	1
Malcolm Koonce	1	2	1.0	0	0
Jonah Laulu	1	1	1.0	0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drake Maye	30/46	287	1	1	4	-0.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
TreVeyon Henderson	5	27	5.4	0.4
Rhamondre Stevenson	7	15	2.1	-3.1
Drake Maye	4	11	2.8	-1.0
DeMario Douglas	1	4	4.0	-0.1
Antonio Gibson	1	3	3.0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kayshon Boutte	6	8	103	0	18%	8.6
Hunter Henry	4	8	66	0	18%	2.9
Stefon Diggs	6	7	57	0	16%	0.6
TreVeyon Henderson	6	6	24	0	13%	-2.9
Rhamondre Stevenson	2	3	12	0	7%	-0.5
Kyle Williams	1	1	12	0	2%	0.8
Austin Hooper	1	1	10	0	2%	0.8
Mack Hollins	1	2	3	0	4%	0.9
Drake Maye	1	1	2	0	2%	-1.3
Antonio Gibson	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.8
DeMario Douglas	2	7	-2	1	16%	-3.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Craig Woodson	5	3	0.0	0	0
Christian Elliss	5	3	0.0	0	0
Christian Barmore	1	4	0.0	0	0
Jaylinn Hawkins	4	0	1.0	1	1
Alex Austin	2	2	0.0	0	1
Harold Landry III	3	1	2.5	0	0
Carlton Davis III	2	2	0.0	0	2
Robert Spillane	3	0	0.0	0	0
Khyiris Tonga	2	1	0.0	0	0
Milton Williams	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -2.5
Closing total: 44.5
LV moneyline: +130
NE moneyline: -155

Patriots closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 33 — under by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 62°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: LV 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Pete Carroll vs Mike Vrabel