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Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 7, 2025 · Gillette Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 1
It turned at Q2 1:36, 4th and 31 — 11.5 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:36 · 4th and 31
Unnamed on the sheet
Raiders
(1:36) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to NE 29, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 25-M.Jones to NE 39 for 10 yards (49-C.Snowden; 50-J.Bobenmoyer). PENALTY on NE-51-J.Gibbens, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 36.
Las Vegas Raiders 20–13. Biggest swing: Q2 1:36, Raiders +11.5% win probability on one snap.
11.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Raiders won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Patriots at 4 chunk plays.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Raiders won this one — +0.38 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at -0.02 expected points per dropback.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Raiders won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Patriots at -0.07 expected points per snap.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Raiders won this one — 5 of 13 on third down, against Patriots at 4 of 14 on third down.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
(1:36) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to NE 29, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 25-M.Jones to NE 39 for 10 yards (49-C.Snowden; 50-J.Bobenmoyer). PENALTY on NE-51-J.Gibbens, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 36.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Ashton Jeanty's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 9:44 left in the 3rd put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Raiderscategory by categoryPatriots
Raiders ahead 6–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 60 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Patriots’s 68 at 78%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 2, Patriots 3.
Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's early-down pass rate, 77.4%, sat 23.2 points above their season number of 54.2% — they passed early by 2.5 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 22 pts
Over Expected room →Raiders9.5 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +11.1 vs their -1.6 pts, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+1.22× that swing) · 60 snaps
Patriots9.1 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +7.1 vs their 2.0 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+1.23× that swing) · 68 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 92%
Tendencies room →Raiders58.7%right on their number · +0.8 vs their 57.9%, and they swing ±13.4 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 46 early downs
Patriots77.4%off script — passed early · +23.2 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+2.51× that swing) · 53 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 48%
Tendencies room →Raiders31.6%inside their normal wobble · +6.0 vs their 25.6%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.70× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Patriots17.0%inside their normal wobble · −7.9 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.89× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -44% to 144%
Fourth Down room →Raiders—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 54.5%.
Patriots25.0%inside their normal wobble · −18.0 vs their 43.0%, and they swing ±33.5 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 57%
Tendencies room →Raiders22.6%right on their number · +0.6 vs their 22.0%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Patriots39.5%leaned — sent pressure · +11.3 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (+1.01× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 33%
Tendencies room →Raiders20.8%inside their normal wobble · +6.9 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.90× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Patriots21.1%inside their normal wobble · +5.5 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.90× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 77.4%, 23.2 points above their season mean of 54.2% and 2.5 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · LV
24/34, 362 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
14.9 expected points added · +9.6% completion over expected
Passing · NE
30/46, 287 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-0.3 expected points added · +2.4% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Tre Tucker banked 6.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.7 | +1.7 | 94% | 92% | 30% | 23% | 8/10, 97 yd |
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 17.5 | +3.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/34, 362 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 10 yd |
| Kayshon BoutteWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.3 | +1.8 | 82% | 77% | 18% | 39% | 6/8, 103 yd |
| Drake MayeQB · Starter QB | 15.8 | −5.9 | 100% | — | 2% | 0% | 30/46, 287 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 11 yd · 1/1, 2 yd |
| Brock BowersTE · Featured Receiver | 15.3 | +2.8 | 51% | 67% | 24% | 23% | 5/8, 103 yd |
| Tre TuckerWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.4 | +6.9 | 90% | 92% | 9% | 18% | 2/3, 54 yd, 1 TD |
| Ashton JeantyRB · Bell Cow Back | 12.0 | −0.9 | 86% | 82% | 6% | 0% | 19 car, 38 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 2 yd |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.7 | +2.1 | 41% | 51% | 16% | 17% | 6/7, 57 yd |
| TreVeyon HendersonRB · Receiving Back | 11.1 | −0.3 | 35% | 34% | 13% | 0% | 5 car, 27 yd · 6/6, 24 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.6 | −2.9 | 93% | 85% | 18% | 33% | 4/8, 66 yd |
| DeMario DouglasWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.2 | −6.2 | 63% | 72% | 16% | 6% | 1 car, 4 yd · 2/7, -2 yd, 1 TD |
| Michael MayerTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.8 | +0.8 | 63% | 54% | 12% | 4% | 4/4, 38 yd |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 6.5 | −1.2 | 60% | 59% | 12% | 29% | 2/4, 45 yd |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB | 4.7 | −3.8 | 65% | 60% | 7% | 1% | 7 car, 15 yd · 2/3, 12 yd |
| Jack BechWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | +1.7 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kyle WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +0.7 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | +0.4 | 32% | 25% | 2% | 1% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| Mack HollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −1.4 | 56% | 40% | 4% | 4% | 1/2, 3 yd |
| Zamir WhiteRB | 0.8 | −0.8 | 14% | 15% | 0% | — | 3 car, 8 yd |
| Antonio GibsonRB | 0.3 | −1.6 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Dylan LaubeRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Alex BachmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Justin ShorterWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:05) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 13-M.Hollins. PENALTY on LV-36-K.Kelly, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at LV 47 - No Play.
Q2 4:05 · Patriots · 4th & 1 at LV 47 · gained nothing · +3.43 EP · +12.0% win probability
169 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 184 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 179. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 77 yards from the NE 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Raiders6
Patriots0Raiders7Patriots0Raiders7Patriots6Raiders7Patriots7Raiders7Patriots10Raiders13Patriots10Raiders14Patriots10Raiders17Patriots10Raiders20Patriots10Raiders20Patriots13Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Raiders at Patriots, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 24/34 | 362 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +14.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 19 | 38 | 2.0 | 1 | −5.8 |
| Geno Smith | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Zamir White | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | 5 | 8 | 103 | 0 | 24% | +1.1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 8 | 10 | 97 | 0 | 30% | +5.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin White | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyu Blu Kelly | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Germaine Pratt | 1 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Pola-Mao |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 30/46 | 287 | 1 | 1 | 4 | −0.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_01_LV_NE
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 33 — under by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 3 | 54 | 1 | 9% | +5.2 |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | 2 | 4 | 45 | 0 | 12% | +2.5 |
| Michael Mayer | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 | 12% | +5.0 |
| Jack Bech | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 3% | +3.0 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6% | −1.2 |
| Alex Bachman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Eric Stokes | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Chinn | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Booker | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyree Wilson | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Koonce | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnay Holmes | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 |
| 27 |
| 5.4 |
| 0 |
| +0.4 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 | −3.1 |
| Drake Maye | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 | −1.0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Antonio Gibson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayshon Boutte | 6 | 8 | 103 | 0 | 18% | +8.6 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 8 | 66 | 0 | 18% | +2.9 |
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 7 | 57 | 0 | 16% | +0.6 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 6 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 13% | −2.9 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 7% | −0.5 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 2% | +0.8 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2% | +0.8 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4% | +0.9 |
| Drake Maye | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2% | −1.3 |
| Antonio Gibson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.8 |
| DeMario Douglas | 2 | 7 | -2 | 1 | 16% | −3.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Elliss | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Craig Woodson | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Barmore | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harold Landry III | 3 | 1 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlton Davis III | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Alex Austin | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Khyiris Tonga | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Milton Williams | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Jones | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
