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Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 7, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 1
It turned at Q2 14:23, 2nd and 4, on Tua Tagovailoa — 7.6 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 14:23 · 2nd and 4
Tua Tagovailoa
Colts
(14:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 38 for -6 yards (23-K.Moore). FUMBLES (23-K.Moore) [23-K.Moore], RECOVERED by IND-4-X.Howard at MIA 44. 4-X.Howard to MIA 42 for 2 yards (72-J.Savaiinaea).
Indianapolis Colts 33–8 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 14:23, Colts +7.6% win probability on one snap.
7.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Colts won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 3 chunk plays.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Colts won this one — +0.39 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at -0.43 expected points per dropback.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Colts won this one — no giveaways, against Dolphins at 3 giveaways.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Colts won this one — +0.26 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.26 expected points per snap.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 0.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
(14:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 38 for -6 yards (23-K.Moore). FUMBLES (23-K.Moore) [23-K.Moore], RECOVERED by IND-4-X.Howard at MIA 44. 4-X.Howard to MIA 42 for 2 yards (72-J.Savaiinaea).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Spencer Shrader's 24-yard field goal with 10:41 left in the 1st put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Spencer Shrader24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.RhodesLead never changed again+30–38 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Dolphinscategory by categoryColts
Colts ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 47 snaps at a 79% dropback rate against Colts’s 70 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 1, Colts 6.
Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIA's blitz rate sent, 57.6%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 14.1 points clear of the next team along.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 21 pts
Over Expected room →Dolphins6.5 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +12.1 vs their -5.6 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.91× that swing) · 46 snaps
Colts-3.8 ptsright on their number · −3.2 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 70 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 84%
Tendencies room →Dolphins76.5%leaned — passed early · +25.5 vs their 50.9%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (+1.98× that swing) · 34 early downs
Colts44.2%leaned — ran early · −12.0 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−1.23× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 63%
Tendencies room →Dolphins13.5%leaned — dropped back clean · −16.0 vs their 29.5%, and they swing ±13.2 week to week (−1.21× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Colts33.3%inside their normal wobble · +5.2 vs their 28.1%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.53× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -44% to 138%
Fourth Down room →Dolphins—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 33.1%.
Colts60.0%right on their number · +12.6 vs their 47.4%, and they swing ±35.7 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 5% to 61%
Tendencies room →Dolphins57.6%off script — sent pressure · +20.8 vs their 36.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+2.43× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Colts43.2%leaned — sent pressure · +11.2 vs their 32.0%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+1.08× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 32%
Tendencies room →Dolphins6.1%leaned — stayed blocked · −6.8 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (−1.54× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Colts16.2%right on their number · +3.5 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
MIA's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 57.6%, 20.8 points above their season mean of 36.8% and 2.4 times their own 8.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · IND
22/29, 272 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
13.0 expected points added · +5.4% completion over expected
Passing · MIA
14/23, 114 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-14.4 expected points added · -7.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
De'Von Achane banked 7.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel JonesQB · Starter QB | 29.5 | +3.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/29, 272 yd, 1 TD · 7 car, 26 yd, 2 TD |
| Michael PittmanWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.0 | +6.5 | 82% | 79% | 28% | 28% | 6/8, 80 yd, 1 TD |
| De'Von AchaneRB · Committee Back | 16.5 | +7.5 | 73% | 68% | 13% | 0% | 7 car, 55 yd · 3/4, 20 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler WarrenTE · Alpha Receiver | 14.9 | −2.2 | 73% | 73% | 31% | 24% | 1 car, 3 yd · 7/9, 76 yd |
| Jonathan TaylorRB · Committee Back | 12.8 | −6.5 | 71% | 85% | 10% | 0% | 18 car, 71 yd · 3/3, 27 yd |
| Tyreek HillWR · Featured Receiver | 8.0 | −2.1 | 62% | 59% | 19% | 37% | 4/6, 40 yd |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.0 | −1.4 | 65% | 57% | 16% | 9% | 4/5, 30 yd |
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 5.3 | −6.3 | 81% | — | 0% | — | 14/23, 114 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 1 car, 7 yd |
| Malik WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | −3.3 | 58% | 65% | 16% | 22% | 1 car, 9 yd · 2/5, 20 yd |
| Alec PierceWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | −3.5 | 79% | 73% | 10% | 31% | 1/3, 36 yd |
| DJ GiddensRB | 4.1 | −5.1 | 25% | 3% | 0% | — | 12 car, 41 yd |
| Adonai MitchellWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | +0.6 | 21% | 15% | 7% | 11% | 2/2, 21 yd |
| Tanner ConnerTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −3.9 | 58% | 59% | 13% | 12% | 2/4, 20 yd |
| Josh DownsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −1.1 | 49% | 45% | 10% | 7% | 2/3, 12 yd |
| Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | +1.5 | 45% | 45% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 20 yd |
| Julian HillTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | +0.9 | 58% | 46% | 0% | 0% | No touches. |
| Dee EskridgeWR | 1.9 | −1.0 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −1.3 | 44% | 41% | 6% | 6% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Zach WilsonQB | 1.6 | −1.1 | 19% | — | 0% | — | 5/8, 32 yd · 1 car, 3 yd |
| Ashton DulinWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.2 | 14% | — | 0% | — | 1 car, 15 yd |
| Ollie Gordon IIRB | 1.3 | −1.5 | 25% | 24% | 3% | 0% | 2 car, 4 yd · 1/1, -1 yd |
| Alec IngoldRB | 1.1 | −1.5 | 27% | 19% | 6% | 5% | 1/2, 1 yd |
| Ulysses Bentley IVRB | 0.0 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Anthony GouldWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Andrew OgletreeTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 37% | 33% | 0% | — | No touches. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep right to 11-M.Pittman for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 15:00 · Colts · 2nd & 20 at MIA 27 · gained 27 · +3.63 EP · +10.2% win probability
139 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 152 plays across 14 drives, personnel groupings on 139 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 147. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 14 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 84 yards from the IND 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
152 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
152 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Dolphins0
Colts3How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Dolphins0Colts9Dolphins0Colts10Dolphins0Colts16Dolphins0Colts17Dolphins0Colts20Dolphins0Colts23Dolphins0Colts29Dolphins0Colts30Dolphins6Colts30Dolphins8Colts30Dolphins8Colts33Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Dolphins at Colts, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 14/23 | 114 | 1 | 2 | 3 | −14.4 |
| Zach Wilson | 5/8 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 7 | 55 | 7.9 | 0 | +2.7 |
| Malik Washington | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Tua Tagovailoa |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 19% | −0.8 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 16% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordyn Brooks | 5 | 9 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrel Dodson | 6 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Jones | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 22/29 | 272 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +13.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_01_MIA_IND
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Colts closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 25.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 41 — under by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 7 |
| 7.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.4 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Zach Wilson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| De'Von Achane | 3 | 4 | 20 | 1 | 13% | +3.1 |
| Malik Washington | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 16% | −4.1 |
| Tanner Conner | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 13% | −2.7 |
| Dee Eskridge | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6% | +0.7 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 6% | +0.3 |
| Alec Ingold | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6% | −1.1 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 3% | −3.4 |
| 5 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Phillips | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Grant | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Trader Jr. | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Sieler | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Butler | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 |
| 71 |
| 3.9 |
| 0 |
| −0.4 |
| DJ Giddens | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Daniel Jones | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 2 | +3.8 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Tyler Warren | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Ulysses Bentley IV | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 8 | 80 | 1 | 28% | +6.9 |
| Tyler Warren | 7 | 9 | 76 | 0 | 31% | +1.2 |
| Alec Pierce | 1 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 10% | +1.0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 10% | +3.1 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 7% | +0.7 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 3% | +1.4 |
| Josh Downs | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 10% | +0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Cross | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charvarius Ward | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Bachie | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore II | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zaire Franklin | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Camryn Bynum | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Mekhi Blackmon | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Ajiake | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
