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2025 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 7, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Miami Dolphins

8

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

33

IND -1.5 ✓U 47.5 ✓Dome

Indianapolis Colts 33–8 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 14:23, MIA +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3IND ↑MIA ↓
Q2 · 14:23MIA 0 — IND 10MIA ball · 2nd & 4IND 75%

(14:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 38 for -6 yards (23-K.Moore). FUMBLES (23-K.Moore) [23-K.Moore], RECOVERED by IND-4-X.Howard at MIA 44. 4-X.Howard to MIA 42 for 2 yards (72-J.Savaiinaea).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 14:23MIA +8% win prob(14:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 38 for -6 yards (23-K.Moore). FUMBLES (23-K.Moore) [23-K.Moore], RECOVERED by IND-4-X.Howard at MIA 44. 4-X.Howard to MIA 42 for 2 yards (72-J.Savaiinaea).
  2. Q2 · 15:00IND +7% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep right to 11-M.Pittman for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q1 · 13:34IND +4% win prob(13:34) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 11-M.Pittman pushed ob at MIA 32 for 14 yards (23-J.Jones).
  4. Q1 · 12:52IND +4% win prob(12:52) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep left to 84-T.Warren to MIA 11 for 21 yards (36-S.Duck; 29-M.Fitzpatrick).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:41IND Field goal

    (10:41) 3-S.Shrader 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: MIA 0 — IND 3
  2. Q2 · 15:00IND Touchdown

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep right to 11-M.Pittman for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 0 — IND 10
  3. Q2 · 12:05IND Touchdown

    (12:05) 17-D.Jones right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 0 — IND 17
  4. Q2 · 0:03IND Field goal

    (:03) 3-S.Shrader 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: MIA 0 — IND 20
  5. Q3 · 7:33IND Field goal

    (7:33) 3-S.Shrader 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: MIA 0 — IND 23
  6. Q4 · 10:16IND Touchdown

    (10:16) 17-D.Jones right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 0 — IND 30
  7. Q4 · 6:29MIA Touchdown

    (6:29) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 28-D.Achane for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: MIA 8 — IND 30
  8. Q4 · 2:28IND Field goal

    (2:28) 3-S.Shrader 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: MIA 8 — IND 33

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricDolphinsColts
Offensive plays4770
Total yards213418 (edge)
Yards per play4.56.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.260.26 (edge)
Success rate43%53% (edge)
Dropback rate79%47%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.430.39 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.39 (edge)0.15
Third downs5/10 (edge)7/15
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)310 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1325 (edge)
Sacks taken31 (edge)
Turnovers30 (edge)

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.26.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Daniel JonesQB

22/29, 272 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

13.0 expected points added · +5.4% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

14/23, 114 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-14.4 expected points added · -7.6% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

18 att, 71 yds, 0 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

De'Von AchaneRB

7 att, 55 yds, 0 TD

2.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

6/8 for 80 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Tyler WarrenTE

7/9 for 76 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 1.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1INDIND 3210624:23Field goal +3
2MIAMIA 456152:25Interception
3INDIND 1615848:18Touchdown +7
4MIAMIA 38360:40Fumble
5INDMIA 426422:13Touchdown +7
6MIAMIA 2410225:15Punt
7INDIND 1217676:46Field goal +3
8MIAMIA 327193:41Interception
9INDIND 427583:49Field goal +3
10MIAMIA 258443:00Turnover on downs
11INDIND 3116849:16Touchdown +7
12MIAMIA 3511723:53Touchdown +8
13INDIND 498213:58Field goal +3
14MIAMIA 3410352:23End of game

8 of 14 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 84 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tua Tagovailoa14/23114123-14.4
Zach Wilson5/832000-1.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
De'Von Achane7557.902.7
Malik Washington199.000.9
Tua Tagovailoa177.000.4
Ollie Gordon II242.000.2
Zach Wilson133.00-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyreek Hill4640019%-0.8
Jaylen Waddle4530016%-0.5
De'Von Achane3420113%3.1
Malik Washington2520016%-4.1
Tanner Conner2420013%-2.7
Dee Eskridge12906%0.7
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine12706%0.3
Alec Ingold12106%-1.1
Ollie Gordon II11-103%-3.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jordyn Brooks590.000
Tyrel Dodson670.000
Minkah Fitzpatrick530.001
Jack Jones350.001
Ifeatu Melifonwu600.000
Jordan Phillips230.000
Kenneth Grant130.000
Dante Trader Jr.210.000
Zach Sieler300.000
Matthew Judon110.000

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Daniel Jones22/2927210113.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jonathan Taylor18713.90-0.4
DJ Giddens12413.401.0
Daniel Jones7263.723.8
Ashton Dulin11515.001.5
Tyler Warren133.000.5
Ulysses Bentley IV100.00-0.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Michael Pittman6880128%6.9
Tyler Warren7976031%1.2
Alec Pierce1336010%1.0
Jonathan Taylor3327010%3.1
Adonai Mitchell222107%0.7
Mo Alie-Cox112003%1.4
Josh Downs2312010%0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Charvarius Ward420.000
Nick Cross421.000
Joe Bachie150.000
Kenny Moore II221.001
Zaire Franklin220.000
Mekhi Blackmon210.000
Camryn Bynum120.012
Austin Ajiake110.000
Rodney Thomas200.000
Ashton Dulin100.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
IND -1.5
Closing total
47.5
MIA moneyline
-108
IND moneyline
-112

Colts closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 25.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 41 — under by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
MIA 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches
Mike McDaniel vs Shane Steichen