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2025 Week 1 · Mon, Sep 8, 2025 · Soldier Field

Minnesota VikingsWinner

27

Chicago Bears

24

MIN -1.5 ✓O 43.5 ✓

Minnesota Vikings 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 13:03, MIN +29% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CHI ↑MIN ↓
Q3 · 13:03MIN 6 — CHI 16MIN ball · 3rd & 8MIN 53%

(13:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short left intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 26-N.Wright at CHI 26. 26-N.Wright for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 13:03MIN +29% win prob(13:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short left intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 26-N.Wright at CHI 26. 26-N.Wright for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 9:52CHI +12% win prob(9:52) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep right to 33-A.Jones for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: CHI-26-N.Wright has returned to the game.
  3. Q1 · 7:12CHI +11% win prob(7:12) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams scrambles left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q2 · 15:00CHI +10% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass incomplete deep left to 33-A.Jones. PENALTY on CHI-26-N.Wright, Defensive Pass Interference, 42 yards, enforced at MIN 31 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:12CHI Touchdown

    (7:12) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams scrambles left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 0 — CHI 7
  2. Q2 · 12:51MIN Field goal

    (12:51) 16-W.Reichard 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: MIN 3 — CHI 7
  3. Q2 · 0:28CHI Field goal

    (:28) 8-C.Santos 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: MIN 3 — CHI 10
  4. Q2 · 0:11MIN Field goal

    (:11) 16-W.Reichard 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: MIN 6 — CHI 10
  5. Q3 · 13:03CHI Touchdown

    (13:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short left intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 26-N.Wright at CHI 26. 26-N.Wright for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 6 — CHI 17
  6. Q4 · 12:18MIN Touchdown

    (12:18) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: MIN 12 — CHI 17
  7. Q4 · 9:52MIN Touchdown

    (9:52) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep right to 33-A.Jones for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: CHI-26-N.Wright has returned to the game. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: MIN 20 — CHI 17
  8. Q4 · 2:59MIN Touchdown

    (2:59) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 27 — CHI 17
  9. Q4 · 2:05CHI Touchdown

    (2:05) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 15-R.Odunze for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 27 — CHI 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricVikingsBears
Offensive plays5163
Total yards256317 (edge)
Yards per play5.05.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.18-0.07 (edge)
Success rate41% (edge)38%
Dropback rate51%68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.35-0.01 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.01 (edge)-0.21
Third downs3/123/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)67 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1318 (edge)
Sacks taken32 (edge)
Turnovers11

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Caleb WilliamsQB

21/35, 210 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-7.0 expected points added · -6.7% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

J.J. McCarthyQB

13/20, 143 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-9.8 expected points added · -3.3% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Jordan MasonRB

15 att, 68 yds, 0 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

Caleb WilliamsQB

6 att, 58 yds, 1 TD

6.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

DJ MooreWR

3/5 for 68 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 0.0 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Aaron JonesRB

3/3 for 44 yds, 1 TD

15% of team targets · 4.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MINMIN 25572:15Punt
2CHICHI 3911615:41Touchdown +7
3MINMIN 24542:13Punt
4CHICHI 256223:53Punt
5MINMIN 197253:10Field goal +3
6CHICHI 396473:53Turnover on downs
7MINMIN 25492:03Punt
8CHICHI 35421:00Punt
9MINMIN 24471:23Punt
10CHICHI 419404:05Field goal +3
11MINMIN 313280:18Field goal +3
12CHI—100:06End of half
13CHICHI 22500:32Punt
14MINCHI 49321:37Defensive touchdown
15MINMIN 285-52:43Punt
16CHICHI 206232:54Punt
17MINMIN 23481:28Punt
18CHICHI 2411595:51Missed field goal
19MINMIN 407602:42Touchdown +6
20CHICHI 255-91:36Punt
21MIN504380:51Touchdown +8
22CHICHI 35782:22Punt
23MINMIN 3210684:31Touchdown +7
24CHICHI 357450:51Touchdown +7
25MINMIN 26551:53Punt
26CHICHI 201190:09Fumble

8 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 68 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
J.J. McCarthy13/20143213-9.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jordan Mason15684.50-1.1
J.J. McCarthy22512.513.4
Aaron Jones8232.90-1.4
Justin Jefferson144.00-0.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Aaron Jones3344115%4.2
Justin Jefferson4744135%-6.8
Jalen Nailor1328015%-0.5
T.J. Hockenson3415020%-0.3
Jordan Mason11705%-0.1
Josh Oliver11505%-0.7
Adam Thielen01005%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Josh Metellus320.000
Eric Wilson320.000
Ivan Pace Jr.230.000
Javon Hargrave322.000
Andrew Van Ginkel320.002
Isaiah Rodgers320.000
Byron Murphy400.000
Theo Jackson310.000
Tai Felton300.000
Jay Ward210.000

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Caleb Williams21/35210102-7.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Caleb Williams6589.716.6
D'Andre Swift17533.10-3.5
DJ Moore382.70-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
DJ Moore3568015%0.0
Olamide Zaccheaus4742021%0.4
Rome Odunze6937126%-0.9
Cole Kmet1431012%-0.9
D'Andre Swift3512015%-1.0
Colston Loveland221206%-0.6
Kyle Monangai111103%1.1
Luther Burden III11-303%-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Noah Sewell720.000
Tremaine Edmunds240.001
Kevin Byard500.000
Jaquan Brisker410.000
Daniel Hardy120.000
Grady Jarrett120.000
Gervon Dexter Sr.211.000
Nahshon Wright210.011
Tyrique Stevenson300.001
Ruben Hyppolite II120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIN -1.5
Closing total
43.5
MIN moneyline
-112
CHI moneyline
-108

Vikings closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 51 — over by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
68°F, wind 6 mph
Referee
Alan Eck
Rest
MIN 7 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches
Kevin O'Connell vs Ben Johnson

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.