For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:19 AM ET · 15 to play · 1 final
New York Giants 6 at Washington Commanders 21. Final.
Commanders -6 ✓U 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 1
Washington Commanders 21, Giants 6 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 1:54, 3rd and 6, on Wan'Dale Robinson — 5.8 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
Commanders closed -6 and covered, winning by 15.
Washington Commanders 21–6. Biggest swing: Q1 1:54, Giants +5.8% win probability on one snap.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 1:54 · 3rd and 6
Wan'Dale Robinson
Giants
(1:54) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 17-W.Robinson to WAS 17 for 8 yards (2-M.Lattimore; 4-F.Luvu). PENALTY on WAS-2-M.Lattimore, Unnecessary Roughness, 9 yards, enforced at WAS 17.
5.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetGiantsQ1 11:13(11:13) 12-J.Gillan punts 53 yards to WAS 21, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Lane to WAS 30 for 9 yards (24-D.Belton). PENALTY on WAS-31-J.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 21.
5.7pts
Graham GanoGiantsQ3 1:47(1:47) 9-G.Gano 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.
5.7pts
What separated them
Red zone
Commanders won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Giants at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Commanders won this one — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Commanders won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Giants at 4 chunk plays.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Commanders won this one — +0.19 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.24 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Giants166 of 179 plays carry both curves
(1:54) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 17-W.Robinson to WAS 17 for 8 yards (2-M.Lattimore; 4-F.Luvu). PENALTY on WAS-2-M.Lattimore, Unnecessary Roughness, 9 yards, enforced at WAS 17.
Swing −5.8 for CommandersExpected points −2.12 for CommandersThe model had Giants 13 points higher than the market did.play 33
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 1:54WAS +6% win prob(1:54) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 17-W.Robinson to WAS 17 for 8 yards (2-M.Lattimore; 4-F.Luvu). PENALTY on WAS-2-M.Lattimore, Unnecessary Roughness, 9 yards, enforced at WAS 17.
3rd · 1:47WAS +6% win prob(1:47) 9-G.Gano 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.
1st · 11:13WAS +6% win prob(11:13) 12-J.Gillan punts 53 yards to WAS 21, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Lane to WAS 30 for 9 yards (24-D.Belton). PENALTY on WAS-31-J.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 21.
2nd · 6:19WAS +5% win prob(6:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:07NYG +5% win prob(:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on WAS-5-J.Daniels, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 4.
2nd · 15:00WAS +4% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 1-M.Nabers (3-W.Harris). PENALTY on WAS-91-D.Wise, Illegal Use of Hands, 1 yard, enforced at WAS 2 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Zach Ertz's 7-yard touchdown catch with 7:03 left in the 1st put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
3rd1:47Graham Gano·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+36–14
4th7:16Deebo Samuel Sr.·19-yd TD run19-yard rushing touchdown+76–21
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryCommanders
Giants1–7Commanders
231Total yards435
3.7Yards per play7.0
34%Success rate53%
25%Third-down rate40%
0Red-zone touchdowns3
4Explosive plays10
13First downs22
2Sacks taken3
0Turnovers0
The read
Commanders ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.24Giants: −0.24 expected points added per play
+0.19Commanders: +0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.26Giants: −0.26 expected points added per play
+0.15Commanders: +0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.18Giants: −0.18 expected points added per play
+0.24Commanders: +0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 62 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Commanders’s 62 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Giants 2, Commanders 4.
NoteCommanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Commanders17.8%
inside their normal wobble · +3.5 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.55× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
NoteNYG's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 65.9%, 14.7 points above their season mean of 51.2% and 1.2 times their own 11.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
54 dressed · 8 never used
76Jon RunyanG · Every snap100%68 snaps
72Jermaine EluemunorT · Every snap100%68 snaps
55James HudsonT · Every snap100%68 snaps
3Russell WilsonQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
74Greg Van RotenG · Every snap100%68 snaps
61John Michael SchmitzC · Every snap100%68 snaps
18Darius SlaytonWR · Full-time97%66 snaps
1Malik NabersWR · Full-time94%64 snaps
84Theo JohnsonTE · Heavy rotation78%53 snaps
17Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation76%52 snaps
29Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB · Heavy rotation74%50 snaps
85Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational26%18 snaps
82Daniel BellingerTE · Situational22%15 snaps
26Devin SingletaryRB · Situational15%10 snaps
44Cam SkatteboRB · Situational12%8 snaps
81Beaux CollinsWR · Situational3%2 snaps
71Marcus MbowT · Situational3%2 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Darius AlexanderDTBeau BradeFSJameis WinstonQBJaxson DartQBAndrew ThomasTEvan NealTThomas Fidone IITEJalin HyattWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Daniels pass−9% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on WAS-5-J.Daniels, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 4.
Q2 0:07 · Commanders · 3rd & 1 at NYG 4 · gained nothing · -3.41 EP · −9.4% win probability
164 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 174. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 89 yards from the WAS 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
41%
Yards
663
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47-0.2768%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.1360%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.3019%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.0546%
Commanders0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Commanders0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Commanders2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Commanders 41
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 23 to the Giants 26
Giants0Commanders6
Giants0Commanders7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Commanders 11 to the Giants 7
The period ended15 plays, from the Giants 22 to the Commanders 8
2nd quarter50 plays
Giants3Commanders7
Field goal5 plays, from the Commanders 2 to the Commanders 1
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Commanders 31
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 15 to the Giants 24
Giants3Commanders13
Giants3Commanders14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Commanders 42 to the Giants 6
Punt11 plays, from the Giants 21 to the Giants 35
The period ended14 plays, from the Commanders 41 to the Giants 4
3rd quarter43 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Giants 37
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Commanders 42
Punt4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 44
Giants6Commanders14
Field goal14 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Commanders 33
The period ended6 plays, from the Commanders 39 to the Commanders 44
4th quarter48 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 12 to the Giants 49
Giants6Commanders20
Giants6Commanders21
Touchdown13 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Giants 19
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Giants 35 to the Commanders 3
The period ended10 plays, from the Commanders 5 to the Giants 30
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Giantscategory by categoryCommanders
Giants0
Commanders6
