2025 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 7, 2025 · FedExField

New York Giants

Washington CommandersWinner

WAS -6 ✓U 45.5 ✓Commanders closed -6 and covered, winning by 15.

Washington Commanders 21–6. Biggest swing: Q1 1:54, WAS +6% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 1:54NYG 0 — WAS 7NYG ball · 3rd & 6WAS 78%

(1:54) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 17-W.Robinson to WAS 17 for 8 yards (2-M.Lattimore; 4-F.Luvu). PENALTY on WAS-2-M.Lattimore, Unnecessary Roughness, 9 yards, enforced at WAS 17.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 1:54WAS +6% win prob(1:54) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 17-W.Robinson to WAS 17 for 8 yards (2-M.Lattimore; 4-F.Luvu). PENALTY on WAS-2-M.Lattimore, Unnecessary Roughness, 9 yards, enforced at WAS 17.
Q3 · 1:47WAS +6% win prob(1:47) 9-G.Gano 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.
Q1 · 11:13WAS +6% win prob(11:13) 12-J.Gillan punts 53 yards to WAS 21, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Lane to WAS 30 for 9 yards (24-D.Belton). PENALTY on WAS-31-J.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 21.
Q2 · 6:19WAS +5% win prob(6:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 7:03WAS Touchdown
(7:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYG 0 — WAS 7
Q2 · 14:00NYG Field goal
(14:00) 9-G.Gano 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.
Score after this play: NYG 3 — WAS 7
Q2 · 6:19WAS Touchdown
(6:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYG 3 — WAS 14
Q3 · 1:47NYG Field goal
(1:47) 9-G.Gano 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.
Score after this play: NYG 6 — WAS 14
Q4 · 7:16WAS Touchdown
(7:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-D.Samuel left end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYG 6 — WAS 21

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Giants	Commanders
Offensive plays	62	62
Total yards	231	435 (edge)
Yards per play	3.7	7.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.24	0.19 (edge)
Success rate	34%	53% (edge)
Dropback rate	73%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.26	0.15 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.18	0.24 (edge)
Third downs	4/16	4/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0	0

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.24.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Jayden DanielsQB

19/30, 233 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

1.4 expected points added · -1.3% completion over expected

Passing · NYG

Russell WilsonQB

17/37, 168 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-11.4 expected points added · -13.5% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB

10 att, 82 yds, 1 TD

2.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Jayden DanielsQB

11 att, 68 yds, 0 TD

3.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Deebo Samuel Sr.WR

7/10 for 77 yds, 0 TD

34% of team targets · 2.8 expected points added

Receiving · NYG

Malik NabersWR

5/12 for 71 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · -1.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 20	8	21	2:29	Punt
2	NYG	NYG 23	4	3	1:29	Punt
3	WAS	WAS 11	9	89	4:02	Touchdown +7
4	NYG	NYG 22	17	66	8:03	Field goal +3
5	WAS	WAS 30	5	1	0:50	Punt
6	NYG	NYG 15	4	9	1:27	Punt
7	WAS	WAS 42	9	53	5:26	Touchdown +7
8	NYG	NYG 21	8	1	4:14	Punt
9	WAS	WAS 41	10	55	2:00	End of half
10	NYG	NYG 20	6	15	2:36	Punt
11	WAS	WAS 20	6	30	3:06	Punt
12	NYG	NYG 29	4	0	0:48	Punt
13	WAS	WAS 25	5	19	1:26	Punt
14	NYG	NYG 20	12	48	5:21	Field goal +3
15	WAS	WAS 39	6	5	2:33	Punt
16	NYG	NYG 12	6	37	2:04	Punt
17	WAS	WAS 20	10	95	4:57	Touchdown +7
18	NYG	NYG 35	13	52	4:30	Turnover on downs
19	WAS	WAS 3	8	67	2:39	End of game

5 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 95 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	17/37	168	0	0	2	-11.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Russell Wilson	8	44	5.5	2.0
Tyrone Tracy Jr.	10	24	2.4	-3.1
Devin Singletary	3	9	3.0	-0.3
Cam Skattebo	2	-3	-1.5	-2.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Malik Nabers	5	12	71	38%	-1.1
Wan'Dale Robinson	6	8	55	25%	1.4
Daniel Bellinger	1	1	14	3%	2.4
Cam Skattebo	2	2	12	6%	-0.1
Tyrone Tracy Jr.	2	5	11	16%	-4.2
Theo Johnson	1	3	5	9%	-2.3
Darius Slayton	0	1	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Bobby Okereke	7	9	0.0	0
Jevon Holland	3	5	0.0	1
Paulson Adebo	6	1	0.0	1
Tyler Nubin	1	5	0.0	0
Brian Burns	2	4	2.0	0
Dane Belton	2	2	0.0	0
Andru Phillips	3	1	0.0	0
Micah McFadden	2	1	0.0	0
Abdul Carter	1	2	0.5	0
Cordale Flott	1	1	0.0	1

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jayden Daniels	19/30	233	1	0	3	1.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	10	82	8.2	1	2.9
Jayden Daniels	11	68	6.2	0	3.2
Austin Ekeler	6	26	4.3	0	-0.2
Jeremy McNichols	4	25	6.3	0	-0.5
Deebo Samuel Sr.	1	19	19.0	1	2.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Deebo Samuel Sr.	7	10	77	0	34%	2.8
Chris Moore	1	1	34	0	3%	2.4
Austin Ekeler	3	3	31	0	10%	2.6
Noah Brown	2	3	27	0	10%	1.6
Terry McLaurin	2	4	27	0	14%	-1.0
Zach Ertz	3	5	26	1	17%	-0.3
Jaylin Lane	1	2	11	0	7%	0.6
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Bobby Wagner	4	5	0.0	0
Frankie Luvu	1	6	0.0	0
Daron Payne	2	3	1.0	2
Quan Martin	3	2	0.0	0
Will Harris	3	1	0.0	0
Dorance Armstrong	4	0	1.0	0
Percy Butler	1	2	0.0	0
Javon Kinlaw	1	2	0.0	0
Deatrich Wise	2	1	0.0	0
Marshon Lattimore	1	2	0.0	2

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: WAS -6
Closing total: 45.5
NYG moneyline: +240
WAS moneyline: -298

Commanders closed -6 and covered, winning by 15.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 27 — under by 18.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 68°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: NYG 7 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches: Brian Daboll vs Dan Quinn

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.