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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:56 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 7, 2025 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 1
It turned at Q4 14:57 — 24.8 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 14:57
Unnamed on the sheet
Steelers
9-C.Boswell kicks 64 yards from PIT 35 to NYJ 1. 3-X.Gipson to NYJ 20 for 19 yards (14-K.Gainwell). FUMBLES (14-K.Gainwell), RECOVERED by PIT-15-B.Skowronek at NYJ 22. 15-B.Skowronek to NYJ 22 for no gain (3-X.Gipson).
Pittsburgh Steelers 34–32 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 14:57, Steelers +24.8% win probability on one snap.
24.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 11 chunk plays, against Steelers at 5 chunk plays.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — no giveaways, against Jets at 1 giveaway.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 14 on third down, against Steelers at 4 of 10 on third down.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 11.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
9-C.Boswell kicks 64 yards from PIT 35 to NYJ 1. 3-X.Gipson to NYJ 20 for 19 yards (14-K.Gainwell). FUMBLES (14-K.Gainwell), RECOVERED by PIT-15-B.Skowronek at NYJ 22. 15-B.Skowronek to NYJ 22 for no gain (3-X.Gipson).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Chris Boswell's 60-yard field goal with 1:08 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Garrett Wilson33-yd TD catch33-yard touchdown catchfrom Justin Fields · kick no good, wide left+67–9
Chris Boswell60-yd field goal60-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap C.KuntzLead never changed again+334–3212 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Steelerscategory by categoryJets
Jets ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Steelers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 53 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Jets’s 64 at 41%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 4, Jets 5.
Jets outgained Steelers 394-272 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYJ's pass rate over expected, −18.8 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 3.3 points clear of the next team along.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Steelers-1.5 ptsright on their number · −1.0 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 53 snaps
Jets-18.8 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.5 vs their -9.3 pts, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−1.12× that swing) · 62 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 86%
Tendencies room →Steelers58.1%right on their number · +3.0 vs their 55.1%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.42× that swing) · 43 early downs
Jets39.1%leaned — ran early · −15.6 vs their 54.7%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (−1.29× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 38%
Tendencies room →Steelers29.4%leaned — faked the run · +9.5 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+1.34× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Jets19.2%right on their number · +1.4 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.23× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32% to 113%
Fourth Down room →Steelers—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 32.6%.
Jets40.0%right on their number · −4.0 vs their 44.0%, and they swing ±27.0 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 6% to 64%
Tendencies room →Steelers42.3%right on their number · +4.4 vs their 37.9%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Jets35.3%inside their normal wobble · +5.5 vs their 29.8%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 35%
Tendencies room →Steelers23.1%leaned — got home · +7.2 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+1.00× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Jets20.6%leaned — got home · +10.8 vs their 9.8%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.68× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NYJ's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 20.6%, 10.8 points above their season mean of 9.8% and 1.7 times their own 6.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
New York Jets
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · PIT
22/30, 244 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
10.2 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
16/22, 218 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
10.1 expected points added · +10.4% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Aaron Rodgers banked 14.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin FieldsQB · Starter QB | 29.5 | +6.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/22, 218 yd, 1 TD · 12 car, 48 yd, 2 TD |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 25.7 | +14.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/30, 244 yd, 4 TD · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Garrett WilsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.5 | +8.3 | 100% | 92% | 43% | 51% | 7/9, 95 yd, 1 TD |
| Calvin Austin IIIWR · Featured Receiver | 17.0 | +5.9 | 80% | 85% | 21% | 60% | 4/6, 70 yd, 1 TD |
| Breece HallRB · Committee Back | 16.5 | +1.6 | 58% | 54% | 19% | 0% | 19 car, 107 yd · 2/4, 38 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB · Committee Back | 13.9 | +3.1 | 45% | 41% | 7% | 2% | 11 car, 37 yd · 2/2, 22 yd, 1 TD |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Featured Receiver | 12.5 | +1.9 | 66% | 68% | 21% | 0% | 5/6, 15 yd, 1 TD |
| DK MetcalfWR · Featured Receiver | 12.3 | +3.0 | 95% | 97% | 24% | 20% | 4/7, 83 yd |
| Ben SkowronekWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.2 | +7.8 | 18% | 15% | 3% | 6% | 1/1, 22 yd, 1 TD |
| Braelon AllenRB | 6.9 | +2.4 | 31% | 15% | 0% | — | 6 car, 9 yd, 1 TD |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | +1.4 | 50% | 53% | 10% | 14% | 3/3, 28 yd |
| Kenny GainwellRB · Committee Back | 5.3 | −3.2 | 54% | 59% | 14% | 0% | 7 car, 19 yd · 3/4, 4 yd |
| Tyler JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | +2.4 | 52% | 50% | 10% | 12% | 2/2, 31 yd |
| Josh ReynoldsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | −0.3 | 97% | 92% | 14% | 18% | 2/3, 18 yd |
| Jeremy RuckertTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | +0.7 | 45% | 38% | 10% | 8% | 2/2, 16 yd |
| Mason TaylorTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | +1.0 | 88% | 85% | 5% | 11% | 1/1, 20 yd |
| Isaiah DavisRB | 1.8 | +0.3 | 12% | 23% | 0% | — | 2 car, 18 yd |
| Kene NwangwuRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Arian SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Xavier GipsonWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Connor HeywardTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kaleb JohnsonRB | -0.2 | −0.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
9-C.Boswell kicks 64 yards from PIT 35 to NYJ 1. 3-X.Gipson to NYJ 20 for 19 yards (14-K.Gainwell). FUMBLES (14-K.Gainwell), RECOVERED by PIT-15-B.Skowronek at NYJ 22. 15-B.Skowronek to NYJ 22 for no gain (3-X.Gipson).
Q4 14:57 · Jets · Kickoff at PIT 35 · gained nothing · -5.68 EP · −27.7% win probability
154 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 167 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
12 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 71 yards from the PIT 29 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Steelers0
Jets3How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Steelers6Jets3Steelers7Jets3How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Steelers7Jets9Steelers10Jets9Steelers10Jets15Steelers10Jets16Steelers10Jets19Steelers16Jets19Steelers17Jets19Steelers17Jets25Steelers17Jets26Steelers23Jets26Steelers24Jets26How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Steelers30Jets26Steelers31Jets26How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Steelers31Jets32How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Steelers34Jets32How the play was built
A man in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, caught in traffic.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Steelers at Jets, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/30 | 244 | 4 | 0 | 4 | +10.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 4 | 7 | 83 | 0 | 24% | +5.5 |
| Calvin Austin III | 4 | 6 | 70 | 1 | 21% | +5.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Thornhill | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Highsmith | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Queen | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeShon Elliott |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 16/22 | 218 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +10.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_01_PIT_NYJ
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Steelers closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 37.5; the game landed 66 — over by 28.5.
Conditions and crew
| Kaleb Johnson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 10% | +2.1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 | 7% | +2.9 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 1 | 22 | 1 | 3% | +2.9 |
| Jonnu Smith | 5 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 21% | +1.0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 14% | −3.2 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Chuck Clark | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Payton Wilson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Slay | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| T.J. Watt | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malik Harrison | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 |
| 107 |
| 5.6 |
| 0 |
| +2.7 |
| Justin Fields | 12 | 48 | 4.0 | 2 | +3.6 |
| Isaiah Davis | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Braelon Allen | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 1 | −2.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 7 | 9 | 95 | 1 | 43% | +3.2 |
| Breece Hall | 2 | 4 | 38 | 0 | 19% | +0.8 |
| Tyler Johnson | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 | 10% | +2.8 |
| Mason Taylor | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 5% | +1.5 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 14% | +0.9 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 10% | +3.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Adams | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quincy Williams | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamien Sherwood | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Cisco | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcelino McCrary-Ball | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinnen Williams | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Stephens | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Michael Carter II | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Will McDonald IV | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jay Tufele | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
