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2025 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 7, 2025 · MetLife Stadium

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

34

New York Jets

32

PIT -3 no coverO 37.5 ✓

Pittsburgh Steelers 34–32 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 14:57, PIT +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NYJ ↑PIT ↓
Q4 · 14:57PIT 24 — NYJ 26NYJ ballNYJ 59%

9-C.Boswell kicks 64 yards from PIT 35 to NYJ 1. 3-X.Gipson to NYJ 20 for 19 yards (14-K.Gainwell). FUMBLES (14-K.Gainwell), RECOVERED by PIT-15-B.Skowronek at NYJ 22. 15-B.Skowronek to NYJ 22 for no gain (3-X.Gipson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 14:57PIT +25% win prob9-C.Boswell kicks 64 yards from PIT 35 to NYJ 1. 3-X.Gipson to NYJ 20 for 19 yards (14-K.Gainwell). FUMBLES (14-K.Gainwell), RECOVERED by PIT-15-B.Skowronek at NYJ 22. 15-B.Skowronek to NYJ 22 for no gain (3-X.Gipson).
  2. Q4 · 1:08NYJ +19% win prob(1:08) 9-C.Boswell 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
  3. Q4 · 0:25PIT +18% win prob(:25) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass incomplete short left to 5-G.Wilson (5-J.Ramsey). NYJ-5-G.Wilson was injured during the play.
  4. Q4 · 7:06NYJ +17% win prob(7:06) 7-J.Fields right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ-76-J.Simpson was injured during the play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:19NYJ Field goal

    (9:19) 6-N.Folk 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

    Score after this play: PIT 0 — NYJ 3
  2. Q1 · 3:44PIT Touchdown

    (3:44) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 15-B.Skowronek for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 7 — NYJ 3
  3. Q1 · 0:31NYJ Touchdown

    (:31) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass deep right to 5-G.Wilson for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: PIT 7 — NYJ 9
  4. Q2 · 13:30PIT Field goal

    (13:30) 9-C.Boswell 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: PIT 10 — NYJ 9
  5. Q2 · 10:09NYJ Touchdown

    (10:09) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 10 — NYJ 16
  6. Q2 · 2:59NYJ Field goal

    (2:59) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

    Score after this play: PIT 10 — NYJ 19
  7. Q2 · 0:37PIT Touchdown

    (:37) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 81-J.Smith for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 17 — NYJ 19
  8. Q3 · 3:49NYJ Touchdown

    (3:49) (No Huddle) 7-J.Fields right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 17 — NYJ 26
  9. Q4 · 15:00PIT Touchdown

    (15:00) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 24 — NYJ 26
  10. Q4 · 14:12PIT Touchdown

    (14:12) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 19-C.Austin for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 31 — NYJ 26
  11. Q4 · 7:06NYJ Touchdown

    (7:06) 7-J.Fields right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ-76-J.Simpson was injured during the play.

    Score after this play: PIT 31 — NYJ 32
  12. Q4 · 1:08PIT Field goal

    (1:08) 9-C.Boswell 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: PIT 34 — NYJ 32

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricSteelersJets
Offensive plays5364
Total yards272394 (edge)
Yards per play5.16.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.170.21 (edge)
Success rate42%50% (edge)
Dropback rate64%41%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.300.40 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.060.08 (edge)
Third downs4/107/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)511 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1624 (edge)
Sacks taken41 (edge)
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Jets outgained Steelers 394–272 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Aaron RodgersQB

22/30, 244 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

10.2 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Justin FieldsQB

16/22, 218 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

10.1 expected points added · +10.4% completion over expected

Rushing · NYJ

Breece HallRB

19 att, 107 yds, 0 TD

2.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Justin FieldsQB

12 att, 48 yds, 2 TD

3.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Garrett WilsonWR

7/9 for 95 yds, 1 TD

43% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

DK MetcalfWR

4/7 for 83 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1NYJNYJ 3511485:45Field goal +3
2PITPIT 2912715:37Touchdown +7
3NYJNYJ 458553:13Touchdown +6
4PITPIT 286351:59Field goal +3
5NYJNYJ 329683:23Touchdown +7
6PITPIT 28522:16Punt
7NYJNYJ 268464:53Field goal +3
8PITPIT 3511652:22Touchdown +7
9NYJNYJ 334230:32End of half
10PITPIT 30591:53Punt
11NYJNYJ 16471:40Punt
12PITPIT 23692:30Punt
13NYJNYJ 329735:11Touchdown +7
14PITPIT 3211533:49Touchdown +7
15NYJ—100:07Fumble
16PITNYJ 223220:43Touchdown +7
17NYJNYJ 3314627:06Touchdown +6
18PITPIT 375-141:40Punt
19NYJNYJ 21452:08Punt
20PITPIT 196202:10Field goal +3
21NYJNYJ 31570:45Turnover on downs
22PITNYJ 37100:18End of game

12 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 73 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers22/3024440410.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jaylen Warren11373.40-0.1
Kenneth Gainwell7192.70-1.9
Aaron Rodgers1-1-1.00-1.9
Kaleb Johnson1-2-2.000.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
DK Metcalf4783024%5.5
Calvin Austin III4670121%5.0
Pat Freiermuth3328010%2.1
Jaylen Warren222217%2.9
Ben Skowronek112213%2.9
Jonnu Smith5615121%1.0
Kenneth Gainwell344014%-3.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Juan Thornhill450.000
Patrick Queen530.000
Alex Highsmith531.000
Chuck Clark420.000
DeShon Elliott510.000
Payton Wilson320.000
Darius Slay500.000
Jalen Ramsey210.002
T.J. Watt120.001
Brandin Echols200.000

New York Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Fields16/2221810110.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Breece Hall191075.602.7
Justin Fields12484.023.6
Isaiah Davis2189.00-0.8
Braelon Allen691.51-2.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Garrett Wilson7995143%3.2
Breece Hall2438019%0.8
Tyler Johnson2231010%2.8
Mason Taylor112005%1.5
Josh Reynolds2318014%0.9
Jeremy Ruckert2216010%3.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Tony Adams330.000
Quincy Williams421.000
Jamien Sherwood330.000
Andre Cisco230.000
Quinnen Williams411.000
Marcelino McCrary-Ball410.000
Brandon Stephens310.001
Michael Carter II310.001
Will McDonald IV212.000
Jay Tufele210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
PIT -3
Closing total
37.5
PIT moneyline
-155
NYJ moneyline
+130

Steelers closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 37.5; the game landed 66 — over by 28.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
67°F, wind 3 mph
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
PIT 7 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs Aaron Glenn