2025 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 7, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

Atlanta Falcons

TB -1.5 ✓U 47.5 ✓DomeBuccaneers closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:23, ATL +27% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:23TB 17 — ATL 19ATL ball · 4th & 4TB 65%

(2:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:23ATL +27% win prob(2:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:04ATL +22% win prob(1:04) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 2-E.Egbuka for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 3:01ATL +22% win prob(3:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles left end to TB 2 for 1 yard (8-S.Dennis). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles left end to TB 1 for 2 yards (8-S.Dennis).
Q4 · 0:06TB +20% win prob(:06) 6-Y.Koo 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 13:26ATL Touchdown
(13:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 7-B.Robinson for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 0 — ATL 7
Q2 · 10:21TB Field goal
(10:21) 4-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: TB 3 — ATL 7
Q2 · 7:00TB Touchdown
(7:00) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 2-E.Egbuka for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 10 — ATL 7
Q2 · 0:57ATL Field goal
(:57) 6-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: TB 10 — ATL 10
Q3 · 7:33TB Touchdown
(7:33) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 7-B.Irving for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 17 — ATL 10
Q3 · 0:23ATL Field goal
(:23) 6-Y.Koo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: TB 17 — ATL 13
Q4 · 2:23ATL Touchdown
(2:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 17 — ATL 20
Q4 · 1:04TB Touchdown
(1:04) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 2-E.Egbuka for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: TB 23 — ATL 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Falcons
Offensive plays	55	70
Total yards	261	359 (edge)
Yards per play	4.7	5.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.11 (edge)	0.06
Success rate	36%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	67%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.28	0.36 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.22 (edge)	-0.56
Third downs	7/14 (edge)	6/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	15	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	0	0

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs 0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Michael Penix Jr.QB

27/42, 298 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

9.6 expected points added · -5.9% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

17/32, 167 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

5.8 expected points added · -10.4% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

5 att, 39 yds, 0 TD

4.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Bucky IrvingRB

14 att, 37 yds, 0 TD

-5.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

6/7 for 100 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · 7.9 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Emeka EgbukaWR

4/6 for 67 yds, 2 TD

20% of team targets · 6.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 35	5	65	1:46	Touchdown +7
2	TB	TB 40	5	2	1:03	Punt
3	ATL	ATL 18	9	40	5:43	Punt
4	TB	TB 8	4	5	1:42	Punt
5	ATL	ATL 38	4	5	1:22	Punt
6	TB	TB 9	16	66	8:07	Field goal +3
7	ATL	ATL 29	5	9	1:20	Turnover on downs
8	TB	TB 48	6	52	2:04	Touchdown +7
9	ATL	ATL 30	14	48	6:00	Field goal +3
10	TB	TB 22	5	-5	0:44	Punt
11	ATL	ATL 38	2	0	0:09	End of half
12	TB	TB 35	9	39	3:18	Missed field goal
13	ATL	ATL 34	5	8	2:03	Punt
14	TB	ATL 32	6	32	2:13	Touchdown +7
15	ATL	ATL 29	12	63	7:06	Field goal +3
16	TB	TB 27	11	22	4:17	Punt
17	ATL	ATL 9	19	61	8:46	Touchdown +7
18	TB	TB 37	7	48	1:18	Touchdown +6
19	ATL	ATL 14	9	60	0:57	Missed field goal
20	TB	TB 34	1	0	0:02	End of game

8 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 66 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	17/32	167	3	0	1	5.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Baker Mayfield	5	39	7.8	4.6
Bucky Irving	14	37	2.6	-5.1
Rachaad White	2	14	7.0	0.6
Emeka Egbuka	1	9	9.0	0.9
Sean Tucker	1	2	2.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Emeka Egbuka	4	6	67	2	20%	6.0
Mike Evans	5	8	51	0	27%	3.8
Sterling Shepard	3	6	39	0	20%	0.8
Bucky Irving	4	4	8	1	13%	0.4
Rachaad White	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.8
Cade Otton	0	3	0	0	10%	-1.5
Ryan Miller	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6
Tez Johnson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tykee Smith	7	4	0.0	1
Zyon McCollum	7	3	0.0	0
SirVocea Dennis	6	3	0.0	1
Lavonte David	3	6	0.0	0
Jamel Dean	6	0	0.0	3
Jacob Parrish	3	2	0.0	0
Antoine Winfield Jr.	1	3	0.0	1
Anthony Nelson	1	2	0.0	0
Haason Reddick	1	2	1.0	0
Vita Vea	1	1	0.0	0

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Michael Penix Jr.	27/42	298	1	0	1	9.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Bijan Robinson	12	24	2.0	0	-8.2
Tyler Allgeier	10	24	2.4	0	-3.5
Michael Penix Jr.	6	21	3.5	1	5.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Bijan Robinson	6	7	100	1	17%	7.9
Kyle Pitts	7	8	59	0	19%	2.8
Drake London	8	15	55	0	36%	-5.6
Ray-Ray McCloud	3	5	51	0	12%	3.5
Casey Washington	3	6	33	0	14%	2.7
KhaDarel Hodge	0	1	0	0	2%	0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jessie Bates	2	5	0.0	0
Divine Deablo	1	5	0.5	1
Billy Bowman Jr.	2	4	0.5	0
A.J. Terrell	6	0	0.0	2
Kaden Elliss	3	2	0.0	1
Arnold Ebiketie	3	2	0.0	0
Xavier Watts	5	0	0.0	2
Jalon Walker	2	1	0.0	0
Mike Hughes	0	2	0.0	1
Feleipe Franks	1	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -1.5
Closing total: 47.5
TB moneyline: -115
ATL moneyline: -105

Buccaneers closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 43 — under by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: TB 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches: Todd Bowles vs Raheem Morris

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.