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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 at Atlanta Falcons 20. Final.
Buccaneers -1.5 ✓U 47.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23, Falcons 20 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 2:23, 4th and 4, on Michael Penix Jr. — 27.5 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:23 · 4th and 4
Michael Penix Jr.
Falcons
(2:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Buccaneers closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:23, Falcons +27.5% win probability on one snap.
27.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Michael Penix Jr.FalconsQ4 3:01(3:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles left end to TB 2 for 1 yard (8-S.Dennis). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles left end to TB 1 for 2 yards (8-S.Dennis).
21.7pts
Emeka EgbukaBuccaneersQ4 1:04(1:04) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 2-E.Egbuka for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
21.7pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Buccaneers won this one — -0.22 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.56 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Buccaneers won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Falcons at 6 of 15 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Buccaneers won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Falcons at 4 chunk plays.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Buccaneers165 of 178 plays carry both curves
(2:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +27.5 for FalconsExpected points +4.18 for FalconsThe model had Falcons 11 points higher than the market did.play 155
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:23ATL +27% win prob(2:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:04ATL +22% win prob(1:04) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 2-E.Egbuka for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:01ATL +22% win prob(3:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles left end to TB 2 for 1 yard (8-S.Dennis). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles left end to TB 1 for 2 yards (8-S.Dennis).
4th · 0:06TB +20% win prob(:06) 6-Y.Koo 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
4th · 6:36ATL +16% win prob(6:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London to TB 39 for 9 yards (35-J.Dean). PENALTY on TB-96-G.Gaines, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at TB 39.
4th · 1:32ATL +16% win prob(1:32) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 17-S.Shepard to ATL 40 for 10 yards (55-K.Elliss).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Emeka Egbuka's 25-yard touchdown catch with 1:04 left in the 4th put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st13:26Bijan Robinson·50-yd TD catch50-yard touchdown catchfrom Michael Penix Jr.from Michael Penix Jr.+70–7
2nd10:21Chase McLaughlin·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap E.Deckers+33–7
4th1:04Emeka Egbuka·25-yd TD catch25-yard touchdown catchfrom Baker Mayfieldfrom Baker Mayfield · kick no good, hit left uprightLead never changed again+623–20
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryFalcons
Buccaneers2–4Falcons
261Total yards359
4.7Yards per play5.1
36%Success rate44%
50%Third-down rate40%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays4
15First downs20
1Sacks taken1
0Turnovers0
The read
Falcons ahead 4–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — total yards.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Buccaneers: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.06Falcons: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.28Buccaneers: +0.28 expected points added per play
+0.36Falcons: +0.36 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.22Buccaneers: −0.22 expected points added per play
−0.56Falcons: −0.56 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 55 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Falcons’s 70 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 3, Falcons 3.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs 0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 19 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Falcons5.4%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.1 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−1.57× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteATL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.4%, 9.1 points below their season mean of 14.5% and 1.6 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Younghoe Koo−29% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:06) 6-Y.Koo 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Q4 0:06 · Falcons · 3rd & 10 at TB 26 · gained nothing · -2.43 EP · −29.2% win probability
163 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 91 yards from the ATL 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
42%
Yards
618
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51+0.1969%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.1866%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.5533%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.1155%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.1380%
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Buccaneers0Falcons6
Buccaneers0Falcons7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Falcons 35 to midfield
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 40 to the Buccaneers 42
Punt10 plays, from the Falcons 18 to the Buccaneers 38
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 8 to the Buccaneers 13
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 38 to the Falcons 43
The period ended8 plays, from the Buccaneers 9 to the Buccaneers 36
2nd quarter49 plays
Buccaneers3Falcons7
Field goal10 plays, from the Buccaneers 42 to the Falcons 30
The period ended7 plays, from the Falcons 29 to the Buccaneers 47
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Buccaneers9Falcons7
Buccaneers10Falcons7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Buccaneers 48 to the Falcons 30
Buccaneers10Falcons10
Field goal17 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Buccaneers 21
The period ended6 plays, from the Buccaneers 22 to the Buccaneers 25
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
No good10 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Falcons 26
Punt6 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Buccaneers16Falcons10
Buccaneers17Falcons10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Falcons 32 to the Falcons 8
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Buccaneers17Falcons13
Field goal14 plays, from the Falcons 29 to the Buccaneers 9
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter53 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Buccaneers 28 to the Falcons 49
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Buccaneers17Falcons19
Buccaneers17Falcons20
Touchdown22 plays, from the Falcons 9 to the Buccaneers 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Buccaneers23Falcons20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 37 to the Falcons 25
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
The period ended12 plays, from the Falcons 14 to the Buccaneers 26
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
