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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:56 AM ET · 16 to play
2025 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 7, 2025 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
TitansTennessee12
BY 8final margin
BroncosDenver20
Tennessee Titans 12 at Denver Broncos 20. Final.
Broncos -8.5 no coverU 42.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 1
Denver Broncos 20, Titans 12 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 14:16, 2nd and 4, on Xavier Woods — 17.1 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 14:16 · 2nd and 4
Xavier Woods
Titans
(14:16) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right intended for 11-T.Franklin INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Woods [98-J.Simmons] at DEN 42. 25-X.Woods ran ob at DEN 26 for 16 yards (77-Q.Meinerz; 60-L.Wattenberg).
Broncos closed -8.5, won by 8 — but didn't cover.
Denver Broncos 20–12. Biggest swing: Q3 14:16, Titans +17.1% win probability on one snap.
17.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Bo NixTitansQ2 7:10(7:10) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix sacked at DEN 40 for -8 yards (98-J.Simmons). FUMBLES (98-J.Simmons) [98-J.Simmons], RECOVERED by TEN-69-S.Joseph at DEN 38. 69-S.Joseph to DEN 38 for no gain (69-M.McGlinchey).
13.7pts
Unnamed on the sheetTitansQ4 11:53(11:53) 3-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to DEN 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-M.Mims MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TEN-54-D.Mausi at DEN 24.
16.5pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Broncos won this one — 39% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Titans at 24% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Broncos won this one — 6 of 15 on third down, against Titans at 2 of 14 on third down.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Broncos won this one — -0.09 expected points per carry, against Titans at -0.44 expected points per carry.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Broncos won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Titans at 1 chunk play.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Titans169 of 180 plays carry both curves
(14:16) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right intended for 11-T.Franklin INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Woods [98-J.Simmons] at DEN 42. 25-X.Woods ran ob at DEN 26 for 16 yards (77-Q.Meinerz; 60-L.Wattenberg).
Swing −17.1 for BroncosExpected points −5.91 for BroncosThe model had Titans 15 points higher than the market did.play 93
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 14:16TEN +17% win prob(14:16) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right intended for 11-T.Franklin INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Woods [98-J.Simmons] at DEN 42. 25-X.Woods ran ob at DEN 26 for 16 yards (77-Q.Meinerz; 60-L.Wattenberg).
4th · 11:53DEN +17% win prob(11:53) 3-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to DEN 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-M.Mims MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TEN-54-D.Mausi at DEN 24.
2nd · 7:10TEN +14% win prob(7:10) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix sacked at DEN 40 for -8 yards (98-J.Simmons). FUMBLES (98-J.Simmons) [98-J.Simmons], RECOVERED by TEN-69-S.Joseph at DEN 38. 69-S.Joseph to DEN 38 for no gain (69-M.McGlinchey).
2nd · 3:02TEN +12% win prob(3:02) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at DEN 15 for -12 yards (15-N.Bonitto).
2nd · 13:21TEN +11% win prob(13:21) 20-T.Pollard right guard to DEN 37 for 2 yards (0-J.Cooper, 9-T.Hufanga). FUMBLES (9-T.Hufanga), RECOVERED by DEN-22-B.Jones at DEN 32. 22-B.Jones to DEN 32 for no gain (70-K.Zeitler).
2nd · 0:22DEN +10% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Wil Lutz's 33-yard field goal with 4:20 left in the 3rd put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st12:03Joey Slye·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Cox+33–0
1st8:39Wil Lutz·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder J.Crawshaw · snap M.Fraboni+33–3
2nd2:19Joey Slye·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Cox+36–3
2nd0:22Courtland Sutton·22-yd TD catch22-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo Nix+76–10
2nd0:06Joey Slye·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Cox+39–10
3rd11:59Joey Slye·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Cox+312–10
3rd4:20Wil Lutz·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder J.Crawshaw · snap M.FraboniLead never changed again+312–13
Broncos ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.41Titans: −0.41 expected points added per play
−0.15Broncos: −0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.39Titans: −0.39 expected points added per play
−0.19Broncos: −0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.44Titans: −0.44 expected points added per play
−0.09Broncos: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 55 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Broncos’s 69 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Titans 2, Broncos 3.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.41.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DEN's sack or hit rate, 41.2%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 16.2 points clear of the next team along.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 13 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.3 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.73× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Broncos41.2%
off script — got home · +18.7 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+2.14× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteDEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 41.2%, 18.7 points above their season mean of 22.5% and 2.1 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Nix pass−19% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(14:16) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right intended for 11-T.Franklin INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Woods [98-J.Simmons] at DEN 42. 25-X.Woods ran ob at DEN 26 for 16 yards (77-Q.Meinerz; 60-L.Wattenberg).
Q3 14:16 · Broncos · 2nd & 4 at DEN 29 · gained nothing · -5.91 EP · −19.3% win probability
167 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 175. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 80 yards from the DEN 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.15
Success rate
36%
Yards
450
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.2474%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.0477%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.7733%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.5455%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR6+0.320%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.3040%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Broncos2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Broncos0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.1 seconds
Titans3Broncos0
Field goal8 plays, from the Titans 35 to the Broncos 32
Titans3Broncos3
Field goal14 plays, from the Broncos 35 to the Titans 16
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 30 to midfield
Intercepted9 plays, from the Broncos 8 to the Broncos 34
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter48 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Broncos 49 to the Broncos 34
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 32 to the Broncos 39
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 8 to the Titans 17
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Broncos 36 to the Broncos 48
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Titans6Broncos3
Field goal8 plays, from the Broncos 38 to the Broncos 3
Punt9 plays, from the Broncos 27 to the Broncos 48
The period ended5 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Titans6Broncos9
Titans6Broncos10
Touchdown3 plays, from the Titans 38 to the Titans 22
Titans9Broncos10
Field goal2 plays
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Broncos 23 to the Broncos 29
Titans12Broncos10
Field goal4 plays, from the Broncos 26 to the Broncos 17
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Titans12Broncos13
Field goal16 plays, from the Broncos 37 to the Titans 10
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Punt10 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Titans 41
The period ended7 plays, from the Broncos 31 to the Broncos 43
4th quarter50 plays
Punt1 play
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 10 to the Titans 34
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 24 to the Broncos 22
Titans12Broncos19
Titans12Broncos20
Touchdown5 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Titans 19
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Titans 38
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Broncos 37 to the Broncos 46
Punt4 plays
The period ended14 plays, from the Broncos 6 to the Titans 33
Fumble lost4 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Titanscategory by categoryBroncos
Titans3
Broncos0
