2025 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 7, 2025 · Empower Field at Mile High

Tennessee Titans

Denver BroncosWinner

DEN -8.5 no coverU 42.5 ✓Broncos closed -8.5, won by 8 — but didn't cover.

Denver Broncos 20–12. Biggest swing: Q3 14:16, TEN +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 14:16TEN 9 — DEN 10DEN ball · 2nd & 4DEN 77%

(14:16) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right intended for 11-T.Franklin INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Woods [98-J.Simmons] at DEN 42. 25-X.Woods ran ob at DEN 26 for 16 yards (77-Q.Meinerz; 60-L.Wattenberg).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 14:16TEN +17% win prob(14:16) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right intended for 11-T.Franklin INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Woods [98-J.Simmons] at DEN 42. 25-X.Woods ran ob at DEN 26 for 16 yards (77-Q.Meinerz; 60-L.Wattenberg).
Q4 · 11:53DEN +17% win prob(11:53) 3-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to DEN 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-M.Mims MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TEN-54-D.Mausi at DEN 24.
Q2 · 7:10TEN +14% win prob(7:10) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix sacked at DEN 40 for -8 yards (98-J.Simmons). FUMBLES (98-J.Simmons) [98-J.Simmons], RECOVERED by TEN-69-S.Joseph at DEN 38. 69-S.Joseph to DEN 38 for no gain (69-M.McGlinchey).
Q2 · 3:02TEN +12% win prob(3:02) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at DEN 15 for -12 yards (15-N.Bonitto).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 12:03TEN Field goal
(12:03) 6-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: TEN 3 — DEN 0
Q1 · 8:39DEN Field goal
(8:39) 3-W.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Score after this play: TEN 3 — DEN 3
Q2 · 2:19TEN Field goal
(2:19) 6-J.Slye 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: TEN 6 — DEN 3
Q2 · 0:22DEN Touchdown
(:22) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 6 — DEN 10
Q2 · 0:06TEN Field goal
(:06) 6-J.Slye 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: TEN 9 — DEN 10
Q3 · 11:59TEN Field goal
(11:59) 6-J.Slye 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: TEN 12 — DEN 10
Q3 · 4:20DEN Field goal
(4:20) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Score after this play: TEN 12 — DEN 13
Q4 · 7:43DEN Touchdown
(7:43) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 27-J.Dobbins left guard for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 12 — DEN 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Broncos
Offensive plays	55	69
Total yards	133	319 (edge)
Yards per play	2.4	4.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.41	-0.15 (edge)
Success rate	24%	39% (edge)
Dropback rate	62%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.39	-0.19 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.44	-0.09 (edge)
Third downs	2/14	6/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	1	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	7	14 (edge)
Sacks taken	6	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2 (edge)	3

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.41.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

25/40, 176 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-7.7 expected points added · -1.7% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Cam WardQB

12/28, 112 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-13.4 expected points added · -12.6% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

RJ HarveyRB

6 att, 70 yds, 0 TD

2.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

J.K. DobbinsRB

16 att, 63 yds, 1 TD

-2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

6/9 for 61 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 3.1 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Troy FranklinWR

4/6 for 44 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · -2.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 35	8	33	3:02	Field goal +3
2	DEN	DEN 35	11	44	3:23	Field goal +3
3	TEN	TEN 30	7	22	3:19	Punt
4	DEN	DEN 8	8	26	4:35	Interception
5	TEN	TEN 46	4	22	2:26	Fumble
6	DEN	DEN 32	4	7	1:35	Punt
7	TEN	TEN 8	4	9	2:11	Punt
8	DEN	DEN 36	5	2	2:26	Fumble
9	TEN	DEN 38	8	23	4:47	Field goal +3
10	DEN	DEN 27	7	21	1:29	Punt
11	TEN	TEN 7	4	-6	0:20	Punt
12	DEN	TEN 38	2	22	0:11	Touchdown +7
13	TEN	DEN 24	2	0	0:14	Field goal +3
14	DEN	DEN 35	2	0	0:02	End of half
15	DEN	DEN 23	3	6	0:55	Interception
16	TEN	DEN 26	4	9	2:09	Field goal +3
17	DEN	DEN 37	14	48	7:39	Field goal +3
18	TEN	TEN 30	8	11	1:50	Punt
19	DEN	DEN 31	7	16	2:37	Punt
20	TEN	TEN 10	6	24	3:07	Punt
21	TEN	DEN 24	4	-25	2:21	Punt
22	DEN	DEN 20	5	80	1:45	Touchdown +7
23	TEN	TEN 30	5	13	1:02	Punt
24	DEN	DEN 37	4	9	1:28	Turnover on downs
25	TEN	DEN 46	4	0	0:58	Punt
26	DEN	DEN 6	10	38	3:10	Turnover on downs
27	TEN	TEN 36	4	-2	0:18	Fumble
28	DEN	TEN 34	1	0	0:41	End of game

8 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 80 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Ward	12/28	112	0	0	6	-13.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Tony Pollard	18	60	3.3	-7.6
Chimere Dike	1	9	9.0	0.7
Julius Chestnut	2	2	1.0	-2.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Tony Pollard	1	1	29	4%	3.5
Calvin Ridley	4	8	27	32%	-2.6
Chig Okonkwo	3	4	19	16%	1.2
Gunnar Helm	1	2	16	8%	0.7
Elic Ayomanor	2	7	13	28%	-3.0
Bryce Oliver	1	1	8	4%	0.5
Chimere Dike	0	1	0	4%	-0.7
Tyler Lockett	0	1	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Cody Barton	5	4	0.0	0	0
Cedric Gray	5	3	0.0	0	0
Jarvis Brownlee Jr.	5	3	0.0	0	1
Amani Hooker	3	2	0.0	0	1
Roger McCreary	4	1	0.0	1	1
Jeffery Simmons	3	1	1.0	0	0
Sebastian Joseph-Day	1	3	0.0	0	0
Darrell Baker Jr.	3	1	0.0	0	0
Quandre Diggs	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jaylen Harrell	2	1	0.0	0	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bo Nix	25/40	176	1	2	1	-7.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
RJ Harvey	6	70	11.7	0	2.8
J.K. Dobbins	16	63	3.9	1	-2.2
Bo Nix	8	18	2.3	0	-5.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Courtland Sutton	6	9	61	1	24%	3.1
Troy Franklin	4	6	44	0	16%	-2.5
Evan Engram	3	4	21	0	11%	1.7
Tyler Badie	2	6	16	0	16%	-2.8
Marvin Mims Jr.	3	4	12	0	11%	4.5
Lucas Krull	1	2	6	0	5%	-1.0
J.K. Dobbins	2	2	5	0	5%	-1.2
Adam Trautman	1	1	5	0	3%	0.1
Adam Prentice	1	1	4	0	3%	-1.1
Trent Sherfield	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.2
RJ Harvey	1	1	-1	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Talanoa Hufanga	7	4	0.0	0
Riley Moss	5	2	0.0	2
Brandon Jones	1	5	0.0	0
Alex Singleton	1	4	0.0	1
Justin Strnad	2	2	1.0	0
Ja'Quan McMillian	1	1	1.0	0
Nik Bonitto	2	0	1.0	0
Jonah Elliss	2	0	1.0	0
Courtland Sutton	1	0	0.0	0
Trent Sherfield	1	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -8.5
Closing total: 42.5
TEN moneyline: +350
DEN moneyline: -455

Broncos closed -8.5, won by 8 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 32 — under by 10.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 84°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: TEN 7 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches: Brian Callahan vs Sean Payton