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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 14, 2025 · U.S. Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 2
It turned at Q4 15:00, 1st and 10, on J.J. McCarthy — 17.2 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Atlanta Falcons 22–6. Biggest swing: Q4 15:00, Falcons +17.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 15:00 · 1st and 10
J.J. McCarthy
Falcons
(15:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy sacked at MIN 40 for -8 yards (96-Z.Harrison). FUMBLES (96-Z.Harrison) [96-Z.Harrison], RECOVERED by ATL-0-D.Deablo at MIN 38.
17.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Falcons won this one — -0.03 expected points per snap, against Vikings at -0.45 expected points per snap.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Falcons won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Vikings at 3 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Falcons won this one — 1 giveaway, against Vikings at 3 giveaways.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.20 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.16 expected points per carry.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
(15:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy sacked at MIN 40 for -8 yards (96-Z.Harrison). FUMBLES (96-Z.Harrison) [96-Z.Harrison], RECOVERED by ATL-0-D.Deablo at MIN 38.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
John Parker Romo's 38-yard field goal with 11:15 left in the 1st put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
John Parker Romo38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCulloughLead never changed again+33–08 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Falconscategory by categoryVikings
Falcons ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.61 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 62 snaps at a 39% dropback rate against Vikings’s 46 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 5, Vikings 1.
Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.45.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's sack or hit rate, 30.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 6.3 points clear of the next team along.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points. · +2.7σ from their own normal
ATL's early-down pass rate, 31.9%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 6.5 points clear of the next team along.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
ATL's pass rate over expected, −14.1 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 2.2 points clear of the next team along.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
ATL's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 80.0% in week 1 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 32.3 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
MIN's early-down pass rate turned over: 43.2% in week 1 against 66.7% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 13 pts
Over Expected room →Falcons-14.1 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.8 vs their -6.3 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.18× that swing) · 62 snaps
Vikings2.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.4 vs their -1.4 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 46 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 83%
Tendencies room →Falcons31.9%leaned — ran early · −18.6 vs their 50.5%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (−1.57× that swing) · 47 early downs
Vikings66.7%leaned — passed early · +12.1 vs their 54.6%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (+1.09× that swing) · 33 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 49%
Tendencies room →Falcons16.7%right on their number · −4.3 vs their 21.0%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Vikings30.0%right on their number · +4.0 vs their 26.0%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -47% to 118%
Fourth Down room →Falcons0.0%leaned — took the kick · −35.8 vs their 35.8%, and they swing ±32.3 week to week (−1.11× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Vikings50.0%inside their normal wobble · +22.6 vs their 27.4%, and they swing ±26.3 week to week (+0.86× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 5% to 76%
Tendencies room →Falcons23.3%leaned — sat back · −14.4 vs their 37.7%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (−1.15× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Vikings37.5%leaned — sat back · −14.3 vs their 51.8%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−1.60× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 39%
Tendencies room →Falcons30.0%off script — got home · +15.5 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+2.69× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Vikings20.8%right on their number · +1.4 vs their 19.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
ATL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 30.0%, 15.5 points above their season mean of 14.5% and 2.7 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIN
11/21, 158 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-18.0 expected points added · -11.1% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
13/21, 135 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-3.2 expected points added · -7.5% completion over expected
Receiving · MIN
3/6 for 81 yds, 0 TD
29% of team targets · -1.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Tyler Allgeier banked 4.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan RobinsonRB · Committee Back | 19.8 | −0.2 | 65% | 83% | 24% | 5% | 22 car, 143 yd · 3/5, 25 yd |
| Tyler AllgeierRB · Committee Back | 15.0 | +4.9 | 33% | 17% | 5% | 2% | 16 car, 76 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 4 yd |
| Justin JeffersonWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.1 | −0.2 | 100% | 100% | 29% | 40% | 3/6, 81 yd |
| Kyle PittsTE · Featured Receiver | 7.7 | 0.0 | 80% | 100% | 24% | 22% | 4/5, 37 yd |
| Jalen NailorWR · Featured Receiver | 6.1 | −3.8 | 100% | 100% | 24% | 33% | 3/5, 31 yd |
| Drake LondonWR · Featured Receiver | 5.9 | −0.8 | 85% | 100% | 19% | 25% | 3/4, 49 yd |
| Jordan MasonRB · Committee Back | 5.8 | −2.4 | 60% | 57% | 14% | 0% | 9 car, 30 yd · 2/3, 8 yd |
| Michael Penix Jr.QB · Starter QB | 5.3 | −5.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 13/21, 135 yd · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Adam ThielenWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | −1.2 | 81% | 90% | 14% | 23% | 2/3, 26 yd |
| Darnell MooneyWR · Featured Receiver | 4.0 | −4.9 | 86% | 100% | 19% | 30% | 2/4, 20 yd |
| J.J. McCarthyQB · Starter QB | 2.8 | −9.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 11/21, 158 yd, 2 INT · 5 car, 25 yd |
| Aaron JonesRB | 2.3 | −1.6 | 43% | 47% | 5% | 0% | 5 car, 23 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| T.J. HockensonTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | −2.6 | 72% | 83% | 14% | 8% | 1/3, 12 yd |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.6 | 23% | 25% | 10% | 15% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Ben YurosekTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Myles PriceWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(15:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy sacked at MIN 40 for -8 yards (96-Z.Harrison). FUMBLES (96-Z.Harrison) [96-Z.Harrison], RECOVERED by ATL-0-D.Deablo at MIN 38.
Q4 15:00 · Vikings · 1st & 10 at MIN 48 · lost 10 · -6.39 EP · −15.0% win probability
145 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 159 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 145 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 154. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 83 yards from the ATL 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Falcons3
Vikings0Falcons6Vikings0How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Falcons6Vikings3How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Falcons9Vikings3How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Falcons9Vikings6Falcons12Vikings6How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Falcons15Vikings6Falcons21Vikings6Falcons22Vikings6Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Falcons at Vikings, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | 13/21 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 3 | −3.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 22 | 143 | 6.5 | 0 | +4.3 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 16 | 76 | 4.8 | 1 | +3.4 |
| Michael Penix Jr. |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 | 19% | −2.5 |
| Kyle Pitts | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 24% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Harrison | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| David Onyemata | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaden Elliss |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | 11/21 | 158 | 0 | 2 | 6 | −18.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_02_ATL_MIN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Vikings closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 28 — under by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| -1 |
| -1.0 |
| 0 |
| −1.6 |
| +1.1 |
| Bijan Robinson | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 24% | −1.2 |
| Darnell Mooney | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 19% | +0.4 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5% | −0.0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −1.7 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Divine Deablo | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Billy Bowman Jr. | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Dee Alford | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Ford | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jessie Bates | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Woods | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Terrell | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 | −0.8 |
| J.J. McCarthy | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Aaron Jones | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 3 | 6 | 81 | 0 | 29% | −1.6 |
| Jalen Nailor | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 24% | −3.2 |
| Adam Thielen | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 14% | +2.9 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 14% | −1.9 |
| Jordan Mason | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 14% | −0.6 |
| Aaron Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theo Jackson | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ivan Pace Jr. | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Allen | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Murphy | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Redmond | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dallas Turner | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Hargrave | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Wilson | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Greenard | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Rodgers | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
