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2025 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 14, 2025 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
FalconsAtlanta22
BY 16final margin
VikingsMinnesota6
Atlanta Falcons 22 at Minnesota Vikings 6. Final.
Vikings -3.5 upsetU 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 2
Atlanta Falcons 22, Vikings 6 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 15:00, 1st and 10, on J.J. McCarthy — 17.2 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 15:00 · 1st and 10
J.J. McCarthy
Falcons
(15:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy sacked at MIN 40 for -8 yards (96-Z.Harrison). FUMBLES (96-Z.Harrison) [96-Z.Harrison], RECOVERED by ATL-0-D.Deablo at MIN 38.
Dome
Vikings closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Atlanta Falcons 22–6. Biggest swing: Q4 15:00, Falcons +17.2% win probability on one snap.
17.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Drake LondonVikingsQ1 1:40(1:40) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London to MIN 30 for 18 yards (55-E.Wilson). FUMBLES (55-E.Wilson), RECOVERED by MIN-26-T.Jackson at MIN 23. 26-T.Jackson to MIN 32 for 9 yards (5-D.London).
11.3pts
Justin JeffersonVikingsQ2 0:12(:12) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep middle to 18-J.Jefferson to ATL 33 for 50 yards (31-X.Watts; 3-J.Bates).
12.8pts
What separated them
Every snap
Falcons won this one — -0.03 expected points per snap, against Vikings at -0.45 expected points per snap.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Falcons won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Vikings at 3 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Falcons won this one — 1 giveaway, against Vikings at 3 giveaways.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.20 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.16 expected points per carry.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Falcons147 of 159 plays carry both curves
(15:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy sacked at MIN 40 for -8 yards (96-Z.Harrison). FUMBLES (96-Z.Harrison) [96-Z.Harrison], RECOVERED by ATL-0-D.Deablo at MIN 38.
Swing −17.2 for VikingsExpected points −6.39 for VikingsThe model had Falcons 4 points higher than the market did.play 117
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 15:00ATL +17% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy sacked at MIN 40 for -8 yards (96-Z.Harrison). FUMBLES (96-Z.Harrison) [96-Z.Harrison], RECOVERED by ATL-0-D.Deablo at MIN 38.
2nd · 0:12MIN +13% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep middle to 18-J.Jefferson to ATL 33 for 50 yards (31-X.Watts; 3-J.Bates).
1st · 1:40ATL +11% win prob(1:40) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London to MIN 30 for 18 yards (55-E.Wilson). FUMBLES (55-E.Wilson), RECOVERED by MIN-26-T.Jackson at MIN 23. 26-T.Jackson to MIN 32 for 9 yards (5-D.London).
2nd · 0:28MIN +9% win prob(:28) 39-J.Romo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
2nd · 10:00MIN +8% win prob(10:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen to ATL 19 for 19 yards (33-B.Bowman).
2nd · 5:03ATL +7% win prob(5:03) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 26 for -10 yards (15-D.Turner).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
John Parker Romo's 38-yard field goal with 11:15 left in the 1st put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:15John Parker Romo·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCulloughLead never changed again+33–0
1st6:51John Parker Romo·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+36–0
2nd7:08Will Reichard·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+36–3
2nd0:28John Parker Romo·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+39–3
2nd0:02Will Reichard·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+39–6
3rd6:20John Parker Romo·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+312–6
4th11:21John Parker Romo·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+315–6
Falcons ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.61 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.03Falcons: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.45Vikings: −0.45 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.40Falcons: −0.40 expected points added per play
−0.61Vikings: −0.61 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.20Falcons: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.16Vikings: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 62 snaps at a 39% dropback rate against Vikings’s 46 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 5, Vikings 1.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.45.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ATL's sack or hit rate, 30.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 6.3 points clear of the next team along.
2.7 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 4.3-swing turn from week 1.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ATL's early-down pass rate, 31.9%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 6.5 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 1.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
ATL's pass rate over expected, −14.1 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 2.2 points clear of the next team along.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
ATL's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 80.0% in week 1 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 32.3 points.
MIN's early-down pass rate turned over: 43.2% in week 1 against 66.7% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 13 pts
off script — got home · +15.5 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+2.69× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Vikings20.8%
right on their number · +1.4 vs their 19.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
NoteATL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 30.0%, 15.5 points above their season mean of 14.5% and 2.7 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
65Matthew BergeronG · Every snap100%66 snaps
71Elijah WilkinsonT · Every snap100%66 snaps
70Jake MatthewsT · Every snap100%66 snaps
63Chris LindstromG · Every snap100%66 snaps
9Michael Penix Jr.QB · Every snap100%66 snaps
64Ryan NeuzilC · Every snap100%66 snaps
1Darnell MooneyWR · Full-time86%57 snaps
89Charlie WoernerTE · Full-time85%56 snaps
5Drake LondonWR · Full-time85%56 snaps
8Kyle PittsTE · Full-time80%53 snaps
7Bijan RobinsonRB · Heavy rotation65%43 snaps
25Tyler AllgeierRB · Rotational33%22 snaps
85Teagan QuitorianoTE · Situational23%15 snaps
34Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Situational23%15 snaps
4KhaDarel HodgeWR · Situational14%9 snaps
87David SillsWR · Situational5%3 snaps
—Nathan CarterRB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Clark Phillips IIICBSam RobertsDTYounghoe KooKJack NelsonTJamal AgnewWRCasey WashingtonWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Kirk CousinsQBNate CarterRBMichael JerrellT
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
74Donovan JacksonG · Every snap100%47 snaps
75Brian O'NeillT · Every snap100%47 snaps
76Will FriesG · Every snap100%47 snaps
1Jalen NailorWR · Every snap100%47 snaps
9J.J. McCarthyQB · Every snap100%47 snaps
18Justin JeffersonWR · Every snap100%47 snaps
19Adam ThielenWR · Full-time81%38 snaps
67Justin SkuleT · Heavy rotation74%35 snaps
87T.J. HockensonTE · Heavy rotation72%34 snaps
27Jordan MasonRB · Heavy rotation60%28 snaps
65Michael JurgensC · Heavy rotation51%24 snaps
78Ryan KellyC · Rotational49%23 snaps
33Aaron JonesRB · Rotational43%20 snaps
84Josh OliverTE · Rotational30%14 snaps
73Walter RouseT · Rotational26%12 snaps
85Ben YurosekTE · Situational9%4 snaps
14Tim JonesWR · Situational6%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Jeff OkudahCBHarrison SmithFSJoe HuberGAustin KeysILBAndrew Van GinkelOLBMax BrosmerQBChristian DarrisawT
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.McCarthy sacked−15% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(15:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy sacked at MIN 40 for -8 yards (96-Z.Harrison). FUMBLES (96-Z.Harrison) [96-Z.Harrison], RECOVERED by ATL-0-D.Deablo at MIN 38.
Q4 15:00 · Vikings · 1st & 10 at MIN 48 · lost 10 · -6.39 EP · −15.0% win probability
145 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 159 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 145 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 154. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 83 yards from the ATL 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
159 of 159 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
159
EPA per play
-0.15
Success rate
41%
Yards
524
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR54+0.0230%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.4463%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR8-0.34100%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.2920%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Falcons3Vikings0
Field goal10 plays, from the Falcons 35 to the Vikings 15
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Vikings 27 to the Vikings 36
Falcons6Vikings0
Field goal7 plays, from the Vikings 36 to the Vikings 10
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 14 to the Vikings 22
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Falcons 28 to the Vikings 44
The period ended4 plays, from the Vikings 32 to the Vikings 41
2nd quarter43 plays
Falcons6Vikings3
Field goal16 plays, from the Vikings 43 to the Falcons 2
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 23 to the Falcons 41
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Vikings 13 to the Vikings 26
Falcons9Vikings3
Field goal9 plays, from the Vikings 38 to the Vikings 15
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Falcons9Vikings6
Field goal6 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Falcons 33
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 22 to the Vikings 30
Falcons12Vikings6
Field goal14 plays, from the Falcons 21 to the Vikings 14
Punt11 plays, from the Vikings 31 to the Vikings 47
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 17 to the Falcons 21
4th quarter43 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost1 play
Falcons15Vikings6
Field goal7 plays, from the Vikings 38 to the Vikings 28
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 19 to the Vikings 28
Falcons21Vikings6
Falcons22Vikings6
Touchdown18 plays, from the Falcons 17 to the Vikings 5
Intercepted5 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Falcons 36
The period ended5 plays, from the Falcons 3 to the Falcons 12
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Vikings -3.5
Closing total
44.5
Falcons moneyline
+150
Vikings moneyline
-180
Vikings closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 28 — under by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Falcons 7 days · Vikings 6 days
Coaches
Raheem Morris vs Kevin O'Connell
1st · 5:26ATL +6% win prob(5:26) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy sacked at MIN 13 for -9 yards (sack split by 27-J.Pearce and 54-B.Dorlus).
1st · 9:26ATL +6% win prob(9:26) (No Huddle) 9-J.McCarthy FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIN 36, and recovers at MIN 36. 9-J.McCarthy to MIN 36 for no gain (55-K.Elliss).
