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2025 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 14, 2025 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Atlanta FalconsWinner

22

Minnesota Vikings

6

MIN -3.5 upsetU 44.5 ✓Dome

Atlanta Falcons 22–6. Biggest swing: Q4 15:00, ATL +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MIN ↑ATL ↓
Q4 · 15:00ATL 12 — MIN 6MIN ball · 1st & 10ATL 65%

(15:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy sacked at MIN 40 for -8 yards (96-Z.Harrison). FUMBLES (96-Z.Harrison) [96-Z.Harrison], RECOVERED by ATL-0-D.Deablo at MIN 38.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 15:00ATL +17% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy sacked at MIN 40 for -8 yards (96-Z.Harrison). FUMBLES (96-Z.Harrison) [96-Z.Harrison], RECOVERED by ATL-0-D.Deablo at MIN 38.
  2. Q2 · 0:12MIN +13% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep middle to 18-J.Jefferson to ATL 33 for 50 yards (31-X.Watts; 3-J.Bates).
  3. Q1 · 1:40ATL +11% win prob(1:40) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London to MIN 30 for 18 yards (55-E.Wilson). FUMBLES (55-E.Wilson), RECOVERED by MIN-26-T.Jackson at MIN 23. 26-T.Jackson to MIN 32 for 9 yards (5-D.London).
  4. Q2 · 0:28MIN +9% win prob(:28) 39-J.Romo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:15ATL Field goal

    (11:15) 39-J.Romo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: ATL 3 — MIN 0
  2. Q1 · 6:51ATL Field goal

    (6:51) 39-J.Romo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: ATL 6 — MIN 0
  3. Q2 · 7:08MIN Field goal

    (7:08) 16-W.Reichard 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: ATL 6 — MIN 3
  4. Q2 · 0:28ATL Field goal

    (:28) 39-J.Romo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: ATL 9 — MIN 3
  5. Q2 · 0:02MIN Field goal

    (:02) 16-W.Reichard 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: ATL 9 — MIN 6
  6. Q3 · 6:20ATL Field goal

    (6:20) 39-J.Romo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: ATL 12 — MIN 6
  7. Q4 · 11:21ATL Field goal

    (11:21) 39-J.Romo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: ATL 15 — MIN 6
  8. Q4 · 3:25ATL Touchdown

    (3:25) 25-T.Allgeier right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 22 — MIN 6

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricFalconsVikings
Offensive plays6246
Total yards327 (edge)198
Yards per play5.3 (edge)4.3
Expected points added / play-0.03 (edge)-0.45
Success rate44% (edge)41%
Dropback rate39%65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.40 (edge)-0.61
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.20 (edge)-0.16
Third downs6/15 (edge)4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps18 (edge)10
Sacks taken3 (edge)6
Turnovers1 (edge)3

Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.45.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

J.J. McCarthyQB

11/21, 158 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-18.0 expected points added · -11.1% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Michael Penix Jr.QB

13/21, 135 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-3.2 expected points added · -7.5% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

22 att, 143 yds, 0 TD

4.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Tyler AllgeierRB

16 att, 76 yds, 1 TD

3.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

3/6 for 81 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · -1.6 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Drake LondonWR

3/4 for 49 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · -2.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1ATLATL 357553:48Field goal +3
2MINMIN 27591:54Turnover on downs
3ATLMIN 367262:30Field goal +3
4MINMIN 145-12:13Punt
5ATLATL 284413:07Fumble
6MINMIN 3217639:22Field goal +3
7ATLATL 238183:43Punt
8MINMIN 133131:20Interception
9ATLMIN 387231:38Field goal +3
10MINMIN 204470:25Field goal +3
11MINMIN 22580:56Punt
12ATLATL 2113697:47Field goal +3
13MINMIN 319264:49Punt
14ATLATL 174-41:28Punt
15MINMIN 481-100:05Fumble
16ATLMIN 38623:39Field goal +3
17MINMIN 19591:37Punt
18ATLATL 1713886:17Touchdown +7
19MINMIN 305340:47Interception
20ATLATL 3492:15Punt
21ATLMIN 44100:20End of game

8 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 88 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Michael Penix Jr.13/21135003-3.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bijan Robinson221436.504.3
Tyler Allgeier16764.813.4
Michael Penix Jr.1-1-1.00-1.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Drake London3449019%-2.5
Kyle Pitts4537024%1.1
Bijan Robinson3525024%-1.2
Darnell Mooney2420019%0.4
Tyler Allgeier11405%-0.0
Ray-Ray McCloud020010%-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
David Onyemata320.000
Zach Harrison231.500
Billy Bowman Jr.220.012
Dee Alford310.000
Kaden Elliss220.000
Divine Deablo130.001
Jessie Bates120.000
A.J. Terrell210.000
Mike Ford210.000
Josh Woods120.000

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
J.J. McCarthy11/21158026-18.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jordan Mason9303.30-0.8
J.J. McCarthy5255.00-1.9
Aaron Jones5234.600.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Justin Jefferson3681029%-1.6
Jalen Nailor3531024%-3.2
Adam Thielen2326014%2.9
T.J. Hockenson1312014%-1.9
Jordan Mason238014%-0.6
Aaron Jones01005%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Theo Jackson540.000
Ivan Pace Jr.620.000
Byron Murphy520.000
Jonathan Allen340.000
Jalen Redmond231.000
Eric Wilson140.000
Dallas Turner321.000
Javon Hargrave230.000
Isaiah Rodgers400.000
Jonathan Greenard131.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Closing total
44.5
ATL moneyline
+150
MIN moneyline
-180

Vikings closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 28 — under by 16.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
ATL 7 days · MIN 6 days
Coaches
Raheem Morris vs Kevin O'Connell