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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Buffalo Bills 30, Jets 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 7:24, 1st and 10, on Justin Fields — 8.3 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 7:24 · 1st and 10
Justin Fields
Bills
(7:24) 7-J.Fields scrambles up the middle to NYJ 20 for 1 yard (97-J.Bosa; 58-M.Milano). FUMBLES (97-J.Bosa), RECOVERED by BUF-57-A.Epenesa at NYJ 24.
Bills closed -6 and covered, winning by 20.
Buffalo Bills 30–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 7:24, Bills +8.3% win probability on one snap.
8.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Josh AllenBillsQ1 12:44(12:44) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles up the middle pushed ob at NYJ 39 for 40 yards (22-T.Adams). PENALTY on NYJ-30-M.Carter, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 39.
5.8pts
Josh AllenBillsQ1 8:58(8:58) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 10-K.Shakir (30-M.Carter). PENALTY on NYJ-72-M.Clemons, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 30 - No Play.
5.0pts
What separated them
Third down
Bills won this one — 5 of 13 on third down, against Jets at 0 of 11 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.20 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.30 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bills won this one — +0.20 expected points per carry, against Jets at -0.31 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Bills at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Bills153 of 164 plays carry both curves
(7:24) 7-J.Fields scrambles up the middle to NYJ 20 for 1 yard (97-J.Bosa; 58-M.Milano). FUMBLES (97-J.Bosa), RECOVERED by BUF-57-A.Epenesa at NYJ 24.
Swing −8.3 for JetsExpected points −5.21 for JetsThe model had Jets 16 points higher than the market did.play 22
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 7:24BUF +8% win prob(7:24) 7-J.Fields scrambles up the middle to NYJ 20 for 1 yard (97-J.Bosa; 58-M.Milano). FUMBLES (97-J.Bosa), RECOVERED by BUF-57-A.Epenesa at NYJ 24.
1st · 12:44NYJ +6% win prob(12:44) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles up the middle pushed ob at NYJ 39 for 40 yards (22-T.Adams). PENALTY on NYJ-30-M.Carter, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 39.
1st · 8:58NYJ +5% win prob(8:58) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 10-K.Shakir (30-M.Carter). PENALTY on NYJ-72-M.Clemons, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 30 - No Play.
1st · 9:05BUF +5% win prob(9:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on BUF-17-J.Allen, Intentional Grounding, 12 yards, enforced at NYJ 18.
1st · 10:25NYJ +4% win prob(10:25) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 22-R.Davis right tackle to NYJ 21 for 4 yards (11-J.Johnson; 51-F.Mauigoa).
1st · 13:42BUF +3% win prob(13:42) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass incomplete deep left to 5-G.Wilson.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
James Cook's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 7:33 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:33James Cook·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
1st5:04Matt Prater·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Ferguson+310–0
2nd14:06Matt Prater·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Ferguson+313–0
Bills ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.20Bills: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.30Jets: −0.30 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.20Bills: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.29Jets: −0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.20Bills: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.31Jets: −0.31 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 67 snaps at a 46% dropback rate against Jets’s 47 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Bills 5, Jets 1.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYJ's play-action rate turned over: 19.2% in week 1 against 6.5% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
BUF's early-down pass rate turned over: 67.8% in week 1 against 38.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.5 points.
NYJ's sack or hit rate turned over: 20.6% in week 1 against 6.5% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 14 pts
inside their normal wobble · +6.2 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.73× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Jets6.5%
inside their normal wobble · −3.3 vs their 9.8%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteNYJ's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 6.5%, 11.4 points below their season mean of 17.8% and 1.9 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive
79Spencer BrownT · Every snap100%75 snaps
64O'Cyrus TorrenceG · Every snap100%75 snaps
76David EdwardsG · Full-time89%67 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Full-time89%67 snaps
66Connor McGovernC · Full-time89%67 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Full-time87%65 snaps
88Dawson KnoxTE · Heavy rotation55%41 snaps
0Keon ColemanWR · Heavy rotation51%38 snaps
5Josh PalmerWR · Heavy rotation51%38 snaps
10Khalil ShakirWR · Rotational49%37 snaps
86Dalton KincaidTE · Rotational48%36 snaps
85Jackson HawesTE · Rotational47%35 snaps
4James CookRB · Rotational47%35 snaps
18Elijah MooreWR · Rotational40%30 snaps
14Tyrell ShaversWR · Rotational33%25 snaps
22Ray DavisRB · Rotational27%20 snaps
41Reggie GilliamFB · Rotational25%19 snaps
26Ty JohnsonRB · Rotational25%19 snaps
70Alec AndersonG · Situational13%10 snaps
11Mitchell TrubiskyQB · Situational13%10 snaps
74Ryan Van DemarkT · Situational11%8 snaps
62Sedrick Van Pran-GrangerC · Situational11%8 snaps
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen scrambles+15% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(12:44) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles up the middle pushed ob at NYJ 39 for 40 yards (22-T.Adams). PENALTY on NYJ-30-M.Carter, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 39.
Q1 12:44 · Bills · 3rd & 8 at BUF 21 · gained 40 · +4.48 EP · +14.5% win probability
151 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 81 yards from the BUF 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
42%
Yards
557
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.2760%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.2145%
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.470%
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8-0.0213%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.0557%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.3471%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 36 to the Jets 38
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Bills6Jets0
Bills7Jets0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bills 19 to the Jets 1
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost2 plays
Bills10Jets0
Field goal6 plays, from the Jets 24 to the Jets 10
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Bills 45
The period ended5 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Jets 45
2nd quarter47 plays
Bills13Jets0
Field goal6 plays, from the Jets 42 to the Jets 34
Punt5 plays
Bills19Jets0
Bills20Jets0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Jets 44
Bills20Jets3
Field goal8 plays, from the Jets 37 to the Bills 32
Punt12 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Jets 38
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 13 to the Jets 47
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter30 plays
Bills23Jets3
Field goal12 plays, from the Bills 21 to the Jets 15
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 19 to the Jets 28
The period ended13 plays, from the Bills 21 to the Jets 10
4th quarter47 plays
Bills29Jets3
Bills30Jets3
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Jets 15 to the Bills 45
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 15 to the Bills 19
Bills30Jets9
Bills30Jets10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Jets 46 to the Bills 5
The period ended7 plays, from the Jets 44 to the Jets 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bills -6
Closing total
47.5
Bills moneyline
-290
Jets moneyline
+235
Bills closed -6 and covered, winning by 20.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 40 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Warm, 83°F at kickoff; still at 4 mph out of the north; mainly clear.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Bills 7 days · Jets 7 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs Aaron Glenn
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 1:08NYJ +3% win prob(1:08) (Shotgun) 11-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 5-J.Palmer to NYJ 45 for 32 yards (1-A.Gardner). Penalty on NYJ-1-A.Gardner, Defensive Holding, declined.
2nd · 14:06NYJ +3% win prob(14:06) 15-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston. ** Injury Update: NYJ-51-F.Mauigoa has returned to the game.
