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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 14, 2025 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 2
It turned at Q1 7:24, 1st and 10, on Justin Fields — 8.3 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Buffalo Bills 30–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 7:24, Bills +8.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 7:24 · 1st and 10
Justin Fields
Bills
(7:24) 7-J.Fields scrambles up the middle to NYJ 20 for 1 yard (97-J.Bosa; 58-M.Milano). FUMBLES (97-J.Bosa), RECOVERED by BUF-57-A.Epenesa at NYJ 24.
8.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Bills won this one — 5 of 13 on third down, against Jets at 0 of 11 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.20 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.30 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bills won this one — +0.20 expected points per carry, against Jets at -0.31 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Bills at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
(7:24) 7-J.Fields scrambles up the middle to NYJ 20 for 1 yard (97-J.Bosa; 58-M.Milano). FUMBLES (97-J.Bosa), RECOVERED by BUF-57-A.Epenesa at NYJ 24.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
James Cook's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 7:33 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Billscategory by categoryJets
Bills ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 67 snaps at a 46% dropback rate against Jets’s 47 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Bills 5, Jets 1.
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYJ's play-action rate turned over: 19.2% in week 1 against 6.5% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points. · −1.9σ from their own normal
BUF's early-down pass rate turned over: 67.8% in week 1 against 38.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.5 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
NYJ's sack or hit rate turned over: 20.6% in week 1 against 6.5% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points. · −0.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Bills-8.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 67 snaps
Jets-9.8 ptsright on their number · −0.5 vs their -9.3 pts, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 47 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 86%
Tendencies room →Bills38.5%leaned — ran early · −11.9 vs their 50.3%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (−1.03× that swing) · 52 early downs
Jets57.6%right on their number · +2.8 vs their 54.7%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 33 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12% to 66%
Tendencies room →Bills25.8%right on their number · −1.3 vs their 27.1%, and they swing ±15.3 week to week (−0.09× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Jets6.5%leaned — dropped back clean · −11.4 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−1.89× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25% to 118%
Fourth Down room →Bills66.7%right on their number · +5.6 vs their 61.1%, and they swing ±21.5 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Jets60.0%inside their normal wobble · +16.0 vs their 44.0%, and they swing ±27.0 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 6% to 55%
Tendencies room →Bills32.3%right on their number · +1.4 vs their 30.9%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Jets22.6%inside their normal wobble · −7.2 vs their 29.8%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.79× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 38%
Tendencies room →Bills22.6%inside their normal wobble · +6.2 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.73× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Jets6.5%inside their normal wobble · −3.3 vs their 9.8%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NYJ's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 6.5%, 11.4 points below their season mean of 17.8% and 1.9 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
New York Jets
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
14/25, 148 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-2.2 expected points added · -9.4% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
7/11, 56 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
5.4 expected points added · +1.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
James Cook banked 9.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James CookRB · Committee Back | 26.5 | +9.1 | 47% | 35% | 4% | 0% | 21 car, 132 yd, 2 TD · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 11.8 | −5.0 | 87% | — | 0% | — | 14/25, 148 yd · 6 car, 59 yd |
| Elijah MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.7 | +5.5 | 40% | 42% | 4% | 8% | 2 car, 6 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 31 yd |
| Garrett WilsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.0 | −3.5 | 94% | 100% | 38% | 48% | 4/8, 50 yd |
| Tyrod TaylorQB | 8.3 | −0.3 | 38% | — | 0% | — | 7/11, 56 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, 21 yd |
| Dalton KincaidTE · Featured Receiver | 7.7 | −3.1 | 48% | 65% | 24% | 19% | 4/6, 37 yd |
| Jeremy RuckertTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.5 | +3.9 | 36% | 32% | 5% | 3% | 1/1, 5 yd, 1 TD |
| Josh PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.7 | +0.7 | 51% | 65% | 12% | 31% | 2/3, 47 yd |
| Breece HallRB · Committee Back | 5.8 | −3.1 | 64% | 55% | 14% | 0% | 10 car, 29 yd · 2/3, 9 yd |
| Keon ColemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | +0.5 | 51% | 61% | 12% | 17% | 3/3, 26 yd |
| Justin FieldsQB | 4.0 | −2.5 | 62% | — | 0% | — | 3/11, 27 yd · 5 car, 49 yd |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Featured Receiver | 3.9 | −4.6 | 55% | 52% | 20% | 8% | 2/5, 19 yd |
| Ray DavisRB | 2.4 | −2.3 | 27% | 19% | 0% | — | 9 car, 24 yd |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | −1.2 | 49% | 58% | 8% | 10% | 1/2, 12 yd |
| Isaiah DavisRB · Receiving Back | 1.6 | −2.3 | 21% | 32% | 14% | 16% | 1/3, 6 yd |
| Jackson HawesTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −0.2 | 47% | 16% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Mason TaylorTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −1.3 | 72% | 77% | 10% | 5% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Braelon AllenRB | 1.1 | −4.2 | 19% | 13% | 5% | 0% | 2 car, 11 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Mitchell TrubiskyQB | 1.0 | +0.5 | 13% | — | 0% | — | 1/2, 32 yd · 3 car, -3 yd |
| Arian SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.8 | −3.2 | 47% | 61% | 10% | 14% | 1 car, -10 yd · 1/2, 8 yd |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 0.6 | −3.1 | 25% | 42% | 4% | 0% | 2 car, 6 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Tyrell ShaversWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.5 | 33% | 29% | 8% | 16% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Reggie GilliamRB | 0.0 | — | 25% | 13% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Tyler JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 96% | 97% | 5% | 14% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Isaiah WilliamsWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:44) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles up the middle pushed ob at NYJ 39 for 40 yards (22-T.Adams). PENALTY on NYJ-30-M.Carter, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 39.
Q1 12:44 · Bills · 3rd & 8 at BUF 21 · gained 40 · +4.48 EP · +14.5% win probability
151 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 164 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 81 yards from the BUF 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
Bills6
Jets0Bills7Jets0How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
Bills10Jets0Bills13Jets0Bills19Jets0Bills20Jets0Bills20Jets3Bills23Jets3Bills29Jets3Bills30Jets3Bills30Jets9Bills30Jets10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bills at Jets, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 14/25 | 148 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −2.2 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1/2 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 21 | 132 | 6.3 | 2 | +5.1 |
| Josh Allen | 6 | 59 | 9.8 | 0 | +8.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Palmer | 2 | 3 | 47 | 0 | 12% | +3.3 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 | 24% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Bishop | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrel Bernard | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Andreessen |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 7/11 | 56 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +5.4 |
| Justin Fields | 3/11 | 27 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_02_BUF_NYJ
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -6 and covered, winning by 20.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 40 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Ray Davis | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Elijah Moore | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 1 | +0.7 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | −3.3 |
| −0.6 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 | 4% | +3.5 |
| Keon Coleman | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 12% | +1.8 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 20% | −1.8 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 8% | +0.5 |
| Jackson Hawes | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | +0.2 |
| James Cook | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | −0.3 |
| Ty Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Tyrell Shavers | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −1.7 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Matt Milano | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Lewis | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taylor Rapp | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Benford | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'Davious White | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sam Franklin Jr. | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorian Strong | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| −9.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 5 | 49 | 9.8 | 0 | −4.3 |
| Breece Hall | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 0 | −2.8 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Braelon Allen | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Arian Smith | 1 | -10 | -10.0 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 4 | 8 | 50 | 0 | 38% | −0.9 |
| Breece Hall | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 14% | −1.4 |
| Arian Smith | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 10% | +1.6 |
| Isaiah Davis | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 14% | +0.9 |
| Mason Taylor | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 10% | −0.1 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5% | +4.3 |
| Braelon Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.3 |
| Tyler Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamien Sherwood | 5 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Cisco | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tony Adams | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcelino McCrary-Ball | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jowon Briggs | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malachi Moore | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quincy Williams | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jermaine Johnson II | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Braiden McGregor | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Oliver | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
