2025 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 14, 2025 · MetLife Stadium

Buffalo BillsWinner

New York Jets

BUF -6 ✓U 47.5 ✓Bills closed -6 and covered, winning by 20.

Buffalo Bills 30–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 7:24, BUF +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 7:24BUF 7 — NYJ 0NYJ ball · 1st & 10BUF 84%

(7:24) 7-J.Fields scrambles up the middle to NYJ 20 for 1 yard (97-J.Bosa; 58-M.Milano). FUMBLES (97-J.Bosa), RECOVERED by BUF-57-A.Epenesa at NYJ 24.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 7:24BUF +8% win prob(7:24) 7-J.Fields scrambles up the middle to NYJ 20 for 1 yard (97-J.Bosa; 58-M.Milano). FUMBLES (97-J.Bosa), RECOVERED by BUF-57-A.Epenesa at NYJ 24.
Q1 · 12:44NYJ +6% win prob(12:44) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles up the middle pushed ob at NYJ 39 for 40 yards (22-T.Adams). PENALTY on NYJ-30-M.Carter, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 39.
Q1 · 8:58NYJ +5% win prob(8:58) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 10-K.Shakir (30-M.Carter). PENALTY on NYJ-72-M.Clemons, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 30 - No Play.
Q1 · 9:05BUF +5% win prob(9:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on BUF-17-J.Allen, Intentional Grounding, 12 yards, enforced at NYJ 18.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 7:33BUF Touchdown
(7:33) 4-J.Cook right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — NYJ 0
Q1 · 5:04BUF Field goal
(5:04) 15-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: BUF 10 — NYJ 0
Q2 · 14:06BUF Field goal
(14:06) 15-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston. ** Injury Update: NYJ-51-F.Mauigoa has returned to the game.
Score after this play: BUF 13 — NYJ 0
Q2 · 9:00BUF Touchdown
(9:00) 4-J.Cook left guard for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 20 — NYJ 0
Q2 · 4:25NYJ Field goal
(4:25) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
Score after this play: BUF 20 — NYJ 3
Q3 · 9:04BUF Field goal
(9:04) 15-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: BUF 23 — NYJ 3
Q4 · 15:00BUF Touchdown
(15:00) 18-E.Moore right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ-8-A.Cisco was injured during the play. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 30 — NYJ 3
Q4 · 3:30NYJ Touchdown
(3:30) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short left to 89-J.Ruckert for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 30 — NYJ 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Jets
Offensive plays	67	47
Total yards	407 (edge)	154
Yards per play	6.1 (edge)	3.3
Expected points added / play	0.20 (edge)	-0.30
Success rate	46% (edge)	34%
Dropback rate	46%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.20 (edge)	-0.29
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.20 (edge)	-0.31
Third downs	5/13 (edge)	0/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	10
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.30.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

14/25, 148 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-2.2 expected points added · -9.4% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Tyrod TaylorQB

7/11, 56 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

5.4 expected points added · +1.6% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

21 att, 132 yds, 2 TD

5.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

6 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

8.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Garrett WilsonWR

4/8 for 50 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · -0.9 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Josh PalmerWR

2/3 for 47 yds, 0 TD

12% of team targets · 3.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYJ	NYJ 36	5	-1	1:33	Punt
2	BUF	BUF 19	13	73	5:58	Touchdown +7
3	NYJ	NYJ 19	2	1	0:15	Fumble
4	BUF	NYJ 24	6	14	2:13	Field goal +3
5	NYJ	NYJ 25	7	20	2:28	Punt
6	BUF	BUF 20	9	41	3:31	Field goal +3
7	NYJ	NYJ 32	5	-7	2:17	Punt
8	BUF	BUF 27	6	73	2:55	Touchdown +7
9	NYJ	NYJ 37	8	31	4:29	Field goal +3
10	BUF	BUF 25	9	47	3:33	Punt
11	NYJ	NYJ 13	6	34	0:38	Punt
12	BUF	BUF 10	1	0	0:10	End of half
13	BUF	BUF 21	12	64	5:59	Field goal +3
14	NYJ	NYJ 19	5	9	2:05	Punt
15	BUF	BUF 21	13	72	6:59	Touchdown +7
16	NYJ	NYJ 33	5	-9	1:07	Punt
17	BUF	BUF 39	4	11	1:47	Punt
18	NYJ	NYJ 15	9	22	3:40	Punt
19	BUF	BUF 15	4	2	1:48	Punt
20	NYJ	NYJ 46	11	54	3:07	Touchdown +7
21	BUF	NYJ 44	6	10	3:28	End of game

8 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 73 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	14/25	148	0	0	1	-2.2
Mitchell Trubisky	1/2	32	0	0	0	2.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Cook	21	132	6.3	2	5.1
Josh Allen	6	59	9.8	0	8.4
Ray Davis	9	24	2.7	0	-0.6
Elijah Moore	2	6	3.0	1	0.7
Ty Johnson	2	6	3.0	0	-0.7
Mitchell Trubisky	3	-3	-1.0	0	-3.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Josh Palmer	2	3	47	12%	3.3
Dalton Kincaid	4	6	37	24%	-0.6
Elijah Moore	1	1	31	4%	3.5
Keon Coleman	3	3	26	12%	1.8
Dawson Knox	2	5	19	20%	-1.8
Khalil Shakir	1	2	12	8%	0.5
Jackson Hawes	1	1	5	4%	0.2
James Cook	1	1	3	4%	-0.3
Ty Johnson	0	1	0	4%	-0.5
Tyrell Shavers	0	2	0	8%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Cole Bishop	4	1	1.0	0
Taylor Rapp	3	1	0.0	0
Terrel Bernard	2	2	0.0	0
Joe Andreessen	3	1	0.0	0
Cam Lewis	2	2	0.0	0
Matt Milano	1	3	0.0	0
Sam Franklin Jr.	2	1	0.0	0
Christian Benford	1	2	0.0	0
Tre'Davious White	3	0	0.0	1
Deone Walker	2	0	0.0	0

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tyrod Taylor	7/11	56	1	0	2	5.4
Justin Fields	3/11	27	0	0	2	-9.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Justin Fields	5	49	9.8	-4.3
Breece Hall	10	29	2.9	-2.8
Tyrod Taylor	3	21	7.0	-0.6
Braelon Allen	2	11	5.5	-0.7
Arian Smith	1	-10	-10.0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Garrett Wilson	4	8	50	0	38%	-0.9
Breece Hall	2	3	9	0	14%	-1.4
Arian Smith	1	2	8	0	10%	1.6
Isaiah Davis	1	3	6	0	14%	0.9
Mason Taylor	1	2	5	0	10%	-0.1
Jeremy Ruckert	1	1	5	1	5%	4.3
Braelon Allen	0	1	0	0	5%	-1.3
Tyler Johnson	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jamien Sherwood	5	7	0.0	0
Andre Cisco	4	2	0.0	1
Marcelino McCrary-Ball	2	3	0.0	0
Quincy Williams	1	4	0.0	1
Tony Adams	4	1	0.0	0
Malachi Moore	1	4	0.0	0
Jowon Briggs	4	1	1.0	0
Jermaine Johnson II	2	2	0.0	1
Isaiah Oliver	2	2	0.0	0
Harrison Phillips	1	3	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -6
Closing total: 47.5
BUF moneyline: -290
NYJ moneyline: +235

Bills closed -6 and covered, winning by 20.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 40 — under by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 80°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: BUF 7 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Aaron Glenn

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.