2025 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 14, 2025 · State Farm Stadium

Carolina Panthers

Arizona CardinalsWinner

ARI -7 no coverO 45.5 ✓DomeCardinals closed -7, won by 5 — but didn't cover.

Arizona Cardinals 27–22. Biggest swing: Q4 1:58, CAR +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:58CAR 22 — ARI 27ARI ballARI 95%

6-S.Martin kicks onside 14 yards from CAR 35 to CAR 49, impetus ends at CAR 44. RECOVERED by CAR-36-D.Richardson.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:58CAR +20% win prob6-S.Martin kicks onside 14 yards from CAR 35 to CAR 49, impetus ends at CAR 44. RECOVERED by CAR-36-D.Richardson.
Q4 · 0:54CAR +15% win prob(:54) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on CAR-9-B.Young, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 33.
Q4 · 1:01ARI +14% win prob(1:01) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on ARI-10-J.Sweat, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 48 - No Play.
Q1 · 13:36CAR +11% win prob(13:36) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 19 for -11 yards (10-J.Sweat). FUMBLES (10-J.Sweat) [10-J.Sweat], touched at CAR 19, RECOVERED by ARI-25-Z.Collins at CAR 3. 25-Z.Collins for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 13:36ARI Touchdown
(13:36) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 19 for -11 yards (10-J.Sweat). FUMBLES (10-J.Sweat) [10-J.Sweat], touched at CAR 19, RECOVERED by ARI-25-Z.Collins at CAR 3. 25-Z.Collins for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 0 — ARI 7
Q1 · 5:22ARI Field goal
(5:22) 38-C.Ryland 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Score after this play: CAR 0 — ARI 10
Q1 · 0:53CAR Field goal
(:53) 10-R.Fitzgerald 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Score after this play: CAR 3 — ARI 10
Q2 · 2:00ARI Field goal
(2:00) 38-C.Ryland 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Score after this play: CAR 3 — ARI 13
Q2 · 0:09ARI Touchdown
(:09) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 3 — ARI 20
Q3 · 9:27ARI Touchdown
(9:27) 71-J.Gaines and 68-K.Beachum reported in as eligible. 6-J.Conner left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 3 — ARI 27
Q3 · 2:10CAR Touchdown
(2:10) 9-B.Young pass short right to 13-H.Renfrow for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [25-Z.Collins].
Score after this play: CAR 9 — ARI 27
Q4 · 5:12CAR Touchdown
(5:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 30-C.Hubbard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: CAR 15 — ARI 27
Q4 · 2:00CAR Touchdown
(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 13-H.Renfrow for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI-3-B.Baker was injured during the play. ARI-21-G.Williams was injured during the play. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 22 — ARI 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Cardinals
Offensive plays	78	47
Total yards	353 (edge)	295
Yards per play	4.5	6.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.02	0.13 (edge)
Success rate	46% (edge)	45%
Dropback rate	76%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05	0.25 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.22	-0.07 (edge)
Third downs	5/15	3/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	25 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Panthers outgained Cardinals 353–295 but lost the turnover battle 3–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

35/55, 328 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

3.2 expected points added · -2.3% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

17/25, 220 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

6.1 expected points added · +0.8% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

10 att, 38 yds, 0 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

11 att, 34 yds, 1 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Tetairoa McMillanWR

6/10 for 100 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 2.8 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Trey McBrideTE

6/7 for 78 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 5.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 27	4	-8	1:33	Defensive touchdown
2	CAR	CAR 23	8	22	4:34	Interception
3	ARI	CAR 48	6	9	3:34	Field goal +3
4	CAR	CAR 36	10	55	4:29	Field goal +3
5	ARI	ARI 22	8	5	3:49	Punt
6	CAR	CAR 24	8	41	4:42	Punt
7	ARI	ARI 10	10	86	5:24	Field goal +3
8	CAR	CAR 11	5	3	1:04	Punt
9	ARI	CAR 45	7	45	0:47	Touchdown +7
10	CAR	CAR 35	2	0	0:04	End of half
11	ARI	ARI 29	11	76	5:37	Touchdown +7
12	CAR	CAR 24	16	76	7:17	Touchdown +6
13	ARI	ARI 28	10	70	6:34	Interception
14	CAR	CAR 12	15	93	5:27	Touchdown +6
15	ARI	ARI 10	5	4	0:34	Punt
16	CAR	CAR 24	13	76	2:33	Touchdown +7
17	CAR	CAR 49	9	-5	1:32	Fumble
18	ARI	ARI 46	1	0	0:26	End of game

8 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 93 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bryce Young	35/55	328	3	1	3	3.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Chuba Hubbard	10	38	3.8	-0.3
Rico Dowdle	6	9	1.5	-3.4
Bryce Young	2	2	1.0	-0.4
Xavier Legette	1	0	0.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tetairoa McMillan	6	10	100	0	19%	2.8
Ja'Tavion Sanders	7	9	54	0	17%	3.2
Hunter Renfrow	7	9	48	2	17%	3.6
Brycen Tremayne	3	5	48	0	9%	3.2
Chuba Hubbard	5	6	39	1	11%	4.6
Tommy Tremble	3	3	20	0	6%	1.5
Rico Dowdle	1	1	10	0	2%	0.8
Mitchell Evans	1	1	9	0	2%	0.8
Trevor Etienne	1	1	2	0	2%	-0.7
Xavier Legette	1	8	-2	0	15%	-5.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Tre'von Moehrig	6	2	0	0
Christian Rozeboom	1	6	0	0
Lathan Ransom	1	3	0	0
D.J. Wonnum	1	3	1	1
Patrick Jones II	3	1	0	1
Trevin Wallace	1	2	0	0
Derrick Brown	3	0	0	2
Bobby Brown III	2	1	0	0
Nick Scott	3	0	0	0
Brycen Tremayne	1	1	0	0

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	17/25	220	1	1	1	6.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	11	34	3.1	1	-0.2
Kyler Murray	7	32	4.6	0	-1.7
Trey Benson	3	14	4.7	0	-0.5
Jacoby Brissett	1	2	2.0	0	2.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Trey McBride	6	7	78	0	28%	5.3
Elijah Higgins	2	3	45	0	12%	2.7
Trey Benson	4	6	30	0	24%	-5.3
Marvin Harrison Jr.	2	5	27	0	20%	0.7
James Conner	1	1	18	0	4%	1.8
Greg Dortch	1	1	11	0	4%	0.2
Michael Wilson	1	2	11	1	8%	2.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jalen Thompson	6	4	0.0	0
Mack Wilson	4	4	0.0	1
Budda Baker	4	4	0.0	0
Garrett Williams	5	2	0.0	1
Akeem Davis-Gaither	2	4	0.0	0
Calais Campbell	3	1	2.0	0
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson	1	3	0.0	0
PJ Mustipher	1	2	0.0	0
Will Johnson	2	1	0.0	1
Josh Sweat	3	0	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ARI -7
Closing total: 45.5
CAR moneyline: +250
ARI moneyline: -310

Cardinals closed -7, won by 5 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 49 — over by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: CAR 7 days · ARI 7 days
Coaches: Dave Canales vs Jonathan Gannon